Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Volumn 72, Issue 13, 2010, Pages 926-937

  de Jager, C ^a   Duhau, S ^b   van Geel, B ^c  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR SEA RESEARCH   (Netherlands)

^b UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES   (Argentina)

^c UNIVERSITY OF AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Global temperature variation; Solar cycles; Solar dynamo; Solar magnetism; Solar variability; Sun

Indexed keywords

FORCINGS; GLOBAL TEMPERATURES; GROUND TEMPERATURE; HOLOCENES; INTERNAL MODES; MAGNETIC COMPONENTS; MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENTS; RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE; SOLAR CYCLE; SOLAR DYNAMO; SOLAR FORCING; SOLAR INFLUENCE; SOLAR VARIABILITY; TEMPERATURE GRADIENT; TERRESTRIAL SURFACE; TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE; WATER VAPOUR; WEIGHTED RESIDUALS;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; INTERACTIVE DEVICES; MAGNETIC FIELDS; MAGNETIC MATERIALS; SURFACE PROPERTIES; TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION;

ELECTRIC GENERATORS;

EID: 77954952633     PISSN: 13646826     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2010.04.011     Document Type: Article

References (112)

1. Baker P.A., Fritz S.C., Garland J., Ekdahl E. Holocene hydrologic variation at Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru, and its relationship to North Atlantic climate variation. Journal of Quaternary Science 2005, 20:655-662.
2. 10Be in polar ice to trace the 11-year cycle of solar activity. Nature 1990, 347:164-166.
3. Beer J., Vonmoos M., Muscheler R. Solar variability over the past several millennia. Space Science Reviews 2006, 1,1. 10.1007/s11214-006-9047-4.
4. Beer J., van Geel B. Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and other forcings. (Eds.), Natural Climate Variability and Global Warming: a Holocene Perspective 2008, 138-162. Wiley-Blackwell. R.W. Battarbee, H.A. Binney (Eds.).
5. Benestadt R.E., Schmidt G.A. Solar trends and global warming. Journal of Geophysical Research 2009, 114:D14101.
6. Bond G., Kromer B., Beer J., Muscheler R., Evans M.N., Showers W., Hoffmann S., Lotti-Bond R., Hajdas I., Bonani G. Persistent solar influence on north Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science 2001, 294:2130-2136.
7. Boni S., Colman R., Kattsov V., Allan R.P., Bretherton C.S., Dufresne J.-L., Hall A., Hallegatte S., Holland M.M., Ingram W., Randall D.A., Soden B.J., Tselioudis G., Webb M.J. How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?. Journal of Climate 2006, 19:3445-3482.
8. Briffa K.R. Annual climate variability in the Holocene, interpreting the message of ancient trees. Quaternary Science 2000, 19:87-105.
9. Brohan P., Kennedy J.J., Harris I., Tett S.F.B., Jones P.D. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research 2006, 111:D12106. 10.1029/2005JD006548.
10. Callebaut D.K., Makarov V.I. Latitude-time distribution of 3 types of magnetic field activity in the global solar cycle. Solar Physics 1992, 141:381-390.
11. Coughlin K., Tung K.K. Eleven-years solar cycle signal in the lower atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 2004, 109:D21105.
12. Crowley T.J., Lowery T.S. How warm was the Medieval warm period?. Ambio 2000, 29:51-54.
13. De Jager C. Solar forcing of climate. 1. Solar variability. Space Science Reviews 2005, 120:197-241.
14. De Jager C., Duhau S. Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2009, 71:239-245.
15. De Jager C., Duhau S. Episodes of residual global warming. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2009, 71:794-798.
16. De Jager, C., Duhau, S., The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperatures. In: Proceedings of the Global Warming in the 21st Century. NOVA Science Publishers, Hauppauge, NY, in press.
17. De Jager C., Usoskin I.G. On possible drivers of sun-induced climate change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2006, 68:2053-2060.
18. Denton G.H., Karlén W. Holocene climatic variations-their pattern and possible cause. Quaternary Research 1973, 3:155-205.
19. Duhau S., Chen C.Y. A multi resolution wavelet analyses of the relationship between the solar sunspot number and the geomagnetic index aa. Annales AFA (Argentinean Physical Association) 1999, 11:62.
20. Duhau S., Chen C.Y. The sudden increase of solar and geomagnetic activity after 1923 as a manifestation of a non-linear solar dynamo. Geophysical Research Letters 2002, 29(13):1628. 10.1029/2001GL013953.
21. Duhau S., De Jager C. The solar dynamo and its phase transitions during the last millennium. Solar Physics 2008, 25:1-15.
22. Erlykin A.D., Sloan T., Wolfendale A.W. Solar activity and the mean global temperature. Environmental Research Letters 2009, 4:014006.
23. Erlykin A.D., Gyalai G., Kudela K., Sloan T., Wolfendale A.W. On the correlation between cosmic ray intensity and cloud cover. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2009, 71:1704-1806.
24. Feynman, J., Gabriel, S.B., 1990. Period and phase of the 88-year solar cycle and the Maunder minimum - Evidence for a chaotic sun. Solar Physics 127, 393-403.
25. Foukal P., North G., Wigley T. A stellar view on solar variability and climate. Science 2004, 306:68.
26. Foukal P., Fröhlich C., Spruit H., Wigley T.M.L. Variations of solar luminosity and their effects on Earth's climate. Nature 2006, 443:161-166.
27. Gibson S., Kozyra J., de Toma G., Ernory B., Onsager T., Thompson B. If the Sun is so quiet, why is the Earth ringing? A comparison of two solar minimum intervals. Journal of Geophysical Research 2009, 114:A09195.
28. Gray, L.J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J.D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G.A., Shindell, D., Van Geel, B., White, W., Solar influence on climate. Reviews in Geophysics, in press.
29. Haltia-Hovi E., Saarinen T., Kukkonen M. A 2000-year record of solar forcing on varved lake sediment in eastern Finland. Quaternary Science Reviews 2007, 26:678-689.
30. Hegerl G.C., Jones P.D., Barnett T.P. Effects of observational sampling errors on the detenction of anthropogenic climate change. Journal of Climate 2001, 14:196-207.
31. Holzhauser H., Magny M., Zumbuhl H.J. Glacier and lake-level variations in west-central Europe over the last 3500 years. Holocene 2005, 15:789-801.
32. Howard T.A., Tappin S.J. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed in the heliosphere; 1. Review of theory. Space Science Reviews 2009, 147:31-54.
33. Howard T.A., Tappin S.J. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed in the heliosphere; 3. Physical implication. Space Science Reviews 2009, 147:89-110.
34. Hu F.S., Kaufman D., Yoneji S., Nelson D., Shemesh A., Huang Y., Tian J., Bond G., Clegg B., Brown T. Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic. Science 2003, 301:1890-1893.
35. IPCC, 2007. Climate change, Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Control. The Physical Science Basis, p. 476.
36. Jones P.D., Briffa K.R., Barnett T.P., Tett S.B.F. High-reduction paleomagnetic records for the last millennium; interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model control-ran temperature. The Holocene 1998, 8:455.
37. Jones P.D., Briffa K.R., Barnett T.P., Tett S.B. High-reduction paleomagnetic records for the last millennium; interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model control-run temperature. The Holocene 1998, 8:455.
38. Kennedy J., Good S., Titchner H., Palmer M. Global and regional climate in 2008. Weather 2008, 64:288-297.
39. Kerr R.A. What happened to global warming?. Science 2009, 326:28.
40. 14C wiggle matching, a reservoir effect and climatic change. Quaternary Science Reviews 1995, 14:959-966.
41. Knobloch E., Tobias S.M., Weiss N.O. Modulation and symmetry changes in stellar dynamos. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 1998, 297:1123-1138.
42. Komen, G., Comments on Episodes of relative global warming, by De Jager and Duhau, preprint.
43. Kremliovsky M.N. Limits of predictability of solar activity. Solar Physics 1995, 159:371-380.
44. Kristjansson J.E., Kristiansen J., Kaas E. Solar activity, cosmic rays and clouds-an update. Advances in Space Research 2004, 34:407-415.
45. Krivova N.A., Solanki S.K. Solar variability and global warming, a statistical comparison since 1850. Advances in Space Research 2003, 34:351.
46. Kulmala M., Riipinen W., Nieminen ., Hulkkonen M., Sogacheva F.L., Manninen H.E., Paasonen P., Petäjä T., Dal Maso M., Aalto P.P., Viljanen A., Usoskin I., Vainio R., Mirme S., Mirme A., Minikin A., Petzold A., Hõrrak U., Plaß-Dülmer C., Birmili W., Kerminen V.M. Atmospheric data over a solar cycle: no connection between galactic cosmic rays and new particle formation. Atmospheric Chemical Physics Discussions 2009, 9:21525-21560.
47. Lean J.L. Short term, direct indices of solar variability. Space Science Reviews 2000, 94:39-51.
48. Le Mouël J-L., Kossobokov V., Courtillot V. On long-term variations of simple geomagnetic indices and slow changes in magnetospheric currents, the emergence of anthropogenic global warming after 1990?. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2005, 232:273-286.
49. Le Mouël J-L., Courtillot V., Blanter E., Shnirman M. Evidence for a solar signature on 20th-century temperature data from the USA and Europe. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 2008, 340:421-430.
50. Le Mouël J-L., Blanter E., Shnirman M., Courtillot V. Evidence for solar forcing in variability of temperatures and pressures in Europe. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics 2009, 71:1309-1321.
51. Lockwood, M., Whiter, D., Finch, I.D., Rouillard, A.D., Clarke, E., Hancock, B., Henwood, R., Ulich, F., Linthe, H.J., Clilverd, M.A., 2009. The long-term drift in geomagnetic activity: calibration of the aa index using data from a variety of magnetometer stations. Annals of Geophysics, submitted for publication.
52. Maasch K.A., Mayewski P.A., Rohling E.J., Stager J.C., Karlén W., Meeker L.D., Meyerson E.A. A 2000-year context for modern climate change. Geografiska Annaler 2005, 87A:7-15.
53. Magny M. Holocene climate variability as reflected by mid-European lake-level fluctuations and its probable impact on prehistoric human settlements. Quaternary International 2004, 113:65-79.
54. Magny M. Lake level studies-West-Central Europe. In: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Studies, vol. 2007, 2:1389-1399.
55. Mann M.E., Bradley R.J., Hughes M.K. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium; inferences, uncertainties and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 1999, 26:759.
56. Mann M.E., Jones P.D. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters 2003, 30:1820.
57. Mayaud P.N. Analysis of storm sudden commencements for the years 1868-1967. Journal of Geophysical Research 1975, 80:111-122.
58. Mangini A., Spotl C., Verdes P. Reconstruction of temperature in the Central Alps during the past 2000yr from a delta O-18 stalagmite record. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2005, 235:741-751.
59. Mauquoy D., van Geel B., Blaauw M., van der Plicht J. Evidence from northwest European bogs shows 'Little Ice Age' climatic changes driven by variations in solar activity. The Holocene 2002, 12:1-6.
60. Meehl G.A., Tebalsi C., Walton G., Easterling D., McDaniel L. Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 2009, 36(23):L23701.
61. Moberg A., Sonechkin D.M., Holmgren K., Datsenko N.M., Karlén M. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution data. Nature 2005, 433:613-617.
62. Morrill C., Overpeck J.T., Cole J.E., Liu K.B., Shen C.M., Tang L.Y. Holocene variations in the Asian monsoon inferred from the geochemistry of lake sediments in central Tibet. Quaternary Research 2006, 65:232-243.
63. Murphy D.M., Solomon S., Portmann R.W., Rosenlof K.H., Forster P.M., Wong T. An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950. Journal of Geophysical Research 2009, 114:D17107. 10.1029/2009/JD012105.
64. Mursula K., Zieger B. Long term North-South asymmetry on solar wind speed inferred by geomagnetic activity: a new type of century scale oscillation?. Geophysical Research Letters 2001, 28:95-98.
65. 14C records. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2004, 219:325-340.
66. Nagashima T., Shiogama H., Yokohata T., Takemura T., Crooks S.A., Nozawa T. Effects of carbonaceous aerosols on surface temperature in the mid twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 2006, 33:L04702. 10.1029/2005GL024887.
67. Nagovitsyn Yu.A. To the description of long-term variations in the solar magnetic flux: the sunspot area index. Astronomy Letters 2005, 31:557-562.
68. Nagovitsyn Yu.A. Solar and magnetic activity on a long time scale. Reconstruction and possibilities for predictions. Astronomy Letters 2006, 32:344-352.
69. Nagovitsyn Yu.A. Solar cycle during the Maunder Minimum. Astronomy Letters 2007, 33:340-345.
70. Neff U., Burns S., Mangini A., Mudelsee M., Fleitmann D., Matter A. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago. Nature 2001, 411:290-293.
71. Nisticò G., Bothmer V., Patsourakos S., Zimbardo G. Characteristics of EUV coronal jets observed with STEREO/SECCHI. Solar Physics 2009, 259:87-108.
72. Overpeck J., Hughen K., Hardy D., Bradley R., Case R., Douglas M., Finney B., Gajewski K., Jacoby G., Jennings A., Lamoureux S., Lasca A., MacDonald G., Moore J., Retelle M., Smith S., Wolfe A., Zielinski G. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries. Science 1997, 278(5341):1251-1256.
73. Patterson R.T., Prokoph A., Chang A. Late Holocene sedimentary response to solar and cosmic ray activity influenced climate variability in the NE Pacific. Sedimentary Geology 2004, 172:67-84.
74. Pierce J.R., Adams P.J. Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates?. Geophysical Research Letters 2009, 36:L09820. 10.1029/2009GL037946.
75. Ram M., Stolz M.R., Tinsey B.A. The terrestrial cosmic ray flux; its importance for climate. EOS 2009, 90:397-408.
76. Ramanathan V., Ching C., Kim D., Bettge T., Buja L., Kiwhl T., Washimgton W.M., Fu Q., Sikha D.R., Wild M. Atmospheric brown clouds: impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2005, 102:5326-5333.
77. Santer B.D., Taylor K.E., Wigley T.M.L., Penner J.E., Jones P.D., Cubasch U. Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate. Climate Dynamics 1995, 12:77-100.
78. Santer B.D., Wigley T.M.L., Mitchell J.B.F., Oort A.H., Stouffer R. A search for human influences in the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature 1996, 382:39-46.
79. Savcheva A., Cirtain J., DeLuca E.E., Golub L. Does a polar coronal hole's flux emergence follow a Hale-like law?. Astrophysical Journal Letters 2009, 702:32.
80. Scafetta N. Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2009, 71:1916.
81. Schmitt D., Schüssler M., Ferriz-Mas A. Intermittent solar activity by an on-off dynamo. Astronomy and Astrophysics 1996, 311:L1.
82. Sloan T., Wolfendale A.W. Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover. Environmental Research Letters 2008, 3:024001.
83. Snodgrass H.B., Howard R. Torsional oscillations of the sun. Science 1985, 228:945-950.
84. Solanki S. Solar variability and climate change; is there a link?. Astronomy and Geophysics 2002, 43:5-9.
85. Solanki S.K., Usoskin I.G., Kromer B., Schussler M., Beer J. Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature 2004, 431:1084-1087.
86. Soon W.W.H. Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences. Physical Geography 2009, 30:144-184. 10.2747/0272-3646.30.2.144.
87. Speranza A., van Geel B., van der Plicht J. Evidence for solar forcing of climate change at ca. 850 cal BC from a Czech peat sequence. Global and Planetary Change 2003, 35:51-65.
88. Stager J.C., Ryves D., Cumming B.F., Meeker L.D., Beer J. Solar variability and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa, during the last millenium. Journal of Paleolimnology 2005, 33:243-251.
89. Steinhilber F., Beer J., Fröhlich C. Total solar irradiance during the Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters 2009, 36:L19704. 10.1029/2009GL04040142.
90. Stott P.A., Joes G.S., Lowe J.A., Thorne P., Durman C., Johns T.C., Thelen J.-C. Transient climate simulations with the HadGEM1 climate model: causes of past warming and future climate change. Journal of Climate 2006, 19:2763-2782.
91. 12C change. Quaternary Research 1991, 35:1-24.
92. Svensmark H., Torsten B., Svensmark J. Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds. Geophysical Research Letters 2009, 36:L15101.
93. Tappin S.J., Howard T.A. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed in the heliosphere; 2. Model and data comparison. Space Science Reviews 2009, 147:31-54.
94. Torrence C., Compo G.P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1998, 79:61-78.
95. Usoskin I.G., Marsh N., Kovaltsov G.A., Mursula K., Gladysheva O.G. Latitudinal dependence of low cloud ionisation on cosmic rays induced ionisation. Geophysical Research Letters 2004, 31:L16109. 10.1029/2004GL019507.
96. Usoskin, I.G., Schüssler, M., Solanki, S.K., Mursula, K., 2004b. Solar activity over the last 1150 years: does I correlate with climate? In: Favata, F., Hussain, G., Battrick, B., (Eds.), 13th Cool Stars Workshop, pp. 19-22.
97. 10Be data. Astronomy and Astrophysics 2004, 413:745.
98. Usoskin, I.G., Mironova, I.A., Korte, M., Kovaltsov, G.A., Regional millenial trend in the cosmic ray induced ionisation of the troposphere. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, in press.
99. van der Plicht J., van Geel B., Bohncke S.J.P., Bos J.A.A., Blaauw M., Speranza A.O.M., Muscheler R., Bjorck S. The Preboreal climate reversal and a subsequent solar-forced climate shift. Journal of Quaternary Science 2004, 19:263-269.
100. van Geel B., Bokovenko N.A., Burova N.D., Chugunov K.V., Dergachev V.A., Dirksen V.G., Kulkova M., Nagler A., Parzinger H., van der Plicht J., Vasiliev S.S., Zaitseva G.I. Climate change and the expansion of the Scythian culture after 850 BC: a hypothesis. Journal of Archaeological Science 2004, 31:1735-1742.
101. van Geel B., Raspopov O.M., Renssen H., van der Plicht J., Dergachev V.A., Meijer H.A.J. The role of solar forcing upon climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 1999, 18:331-338.
102. 14C ca. 800 cal BC: possible causes, related climatic teleconnections and the impact on human environments. Radiocarbon 1998, 40:535-550.
103. Verschuren D., Laird K.R., Cumming B.F. Rainfall and drought in equatorial East Africa during the past 1100 years. Nature 2000, 403:410-414.
104. Versteegh G.J.M. Solar forcing of climate: evidence from the past. Space Science Reviews 2005, 120:243-286.
105. Vorontsov S.V., Christensen-Dalsgaard J., Schou J., Strakhov V.N., Thompson M.J. Helioseismic measurements of solar torsional oscillations. Science 2002, 296:101-103.
106. Wang Y.J., Cheng H., Edwards R.L., He Y.Q., Kong X.G., An Z.S., Wu J.Y., Kelly M.J., Dykoski C.A., Li X.D. The Holocene Asian monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate. Science 2005, 308:854-857.
107. Watermann J., Wintoft P., Sanahuja B., Saiz E., Poedts S., Palmroth M., Milillo A., Metallinou F-A., Jacobs C., Ganushkina N.Y., Daglis I.A., Cid C., Cerrato Y., Balasis G., Aylward A.D., Aran A. Models of solar wind structures and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. Space Science Reviews 2009, 147:233-270. 10.1007/s11214-009-9494-9.
108. Weiss N.O. Dynamo processes in stars. Astrophysics Space Science Library 1987, 156:11-29.
109. Weiss N.O., Tobias S.M. Physical causes of solar activity. Space Science Reviews 2006, 94:99-112.
110. Wu Y.H., Lucke A., Jin Z.D., Wang S.M., Schleser G.H., Battarbee R.W., Xia W.L. Holocene climate development on the central Tibetan plateau: a sedimentary record from Cuoe Lake. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 2006, 234:328-340.
111. Xiao S., Li A., Liu J.P., Chen M., Xie Q., Jiang F., Li T., Xiang R., Chen Z. Coherence between solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon variability in the past 8000 years from Yangtze River-derived mud in the East China Sea. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 2006, 237:293-304.
112. Xie H., St.Cyr O.C., Gopalswamy N., Yashiro S., Krall J., Kraamar M., Davila J. On the origin, 3D structure and dynamic evolution of CME's near solar minimum. Solar Physics 2009, 259:143-161.