Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Volumn 71, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 239-245

  de Jager, C ^a   Duhau, S ^b  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR SEA RESEARCH   (Netherlands)

^b UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES   (Argentina)

Author keywords

Geomagnetic index; Solar dynamo; Solar variability; Sunspots

Indexed keywords

DC GENERATORS; ELECTRIC GENERATORS; FORECASTING; GEOMAGNETISM; INTERACTIVE DEVICES; LINEAR SYSTEMS; MAGNETIC FIELDS; MODULATION; MOTION ESTIMATION; NONLINEAR SYSTEMS; SOLAR ENERGY; SOLAR RADIATION;

ACTIVITY EPISODES; GEOMAGNETIC INDEX; MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENTS; NON-LINEAR; REGULAR OSCILLATIONS; SCHWABE CYCLES; SOLAR ACTIVITIES; SOLAR DYNAMO; SOLAR VARIABILITY; SUNSPOT CYCLES; SUNSPOT NUMBERS; SUNSPOTS; TRANSITION LEVELS;

SOLAR SYSTEM;

EID: 59249099642     PISSN: 13646826     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2008.11.006     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Aguirre L.A., Letellier C., and Maquet J. Forecasting the time series of sunspot numbers. Sol. Phys. 249 (2008) 103
2. Badalyan O.G., Obridko V., and Sykora N.J. Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24. Sol. Phys. 199 (2001) 421
3. Callebaut, D.K., Makarov, V.I., Tlatov, A.G., 2003. Relation between the Suess cycle and the rest latitudes of the large-scale unipolar Magnetic Field Regions. In: Proceedings of the VII Pulkovo Conference on Solar Physics, pp. 211.
4. Charvàtovà, I., 2008. Long term predictive assessments of solar and geomagnetic activity on the basis of close similarity between the solar inertial motions in the intervals 1840-1905 and 1980-2045. New Astron., doi:10.1016/j.newast.2008.04.005.
5. De Jager C. Solar forcing of climate. 1. Solar variability. Space Sci. Rev. 120 (2005) 197
6. De Meyer F. A transfer function model for the sunspot cycle. Sol. Phys. 217 (2003) 349
7. Dikpati M., de Toma G., Gilman P.A., Arge C.N., and Withe O.R. Diagnosis of solar cycle 23 using a flux-transport dynamo model. Astrophys. J. 601 (2004) 1136
8. Dikpati M., de Toma G., and Gilman P.A. Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based scheme. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (2006) L05102 10.1029/2005GL025221
9. Duhau S. An early prediction of sunspot cycle maximum 24. Sol. Phys. 213 (2003) 203
10. Duhau S., and Chen Ch. The sudden increases of solar and geomagnetic activity after 1923 as a manifestation of a non-linear solar dynamo. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002) 1-6 CiteID 1628
11. Duhau S., and De Jager C. The solar dynamo and its phase transitions during the last millennium. Sol. Phys. 25 (2008) 1
12. Durney B. On the differences between odd and even solar cycles. Sol. Phys. 196 (2000) 421
13. Feynman J. Geomagnetic and solar wind cycles. Geophys. Res. 87 (1982) 6154
14. Feynman J., and Gabriel S.B. Period and phase of the 88-year solar cycle. Sol. Phys. 127 (1990) 393
15. Hathaway D.H., and Wilson R.M. What the sunspot record tells us about space climate. Sol. Phys. 224 (2004) 5
16. Hathaway D.H., and Wilson R.M. Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (2006) L18101
17. Hathaway D.H., Wilson R.M., and Reichmann E.J.J. A synthesis of solar cycle prediction techniques. Geophys. Res. 104 (1999) 22388
18. Kane R.P. Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components. Sol. Phys. 189 (1999) 217
19. Kane R.P. A preliminary estimate of the size of the coming solar cycle 24, based on the Ohl's precursor method. Sol. Phys. 243 (2007) 205
20. Komitov B.P., and Kaftan V.I. Solar activity variation in the last millennium. Will the next long-period solar minimum formed?. Geomagn. Aeron. 43 (2003) 592
21. Knobloch E., Tobias S.M., and Weiss N.O. Modulation and symmetry changes in stellar dynamos. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 297 (1998) 1123
22. Kremliovsky M. Limits of predictability of solar activity. Sol. Phys. 159 (1995) 371
23. Layden A.C., Fox P.A., Howard J.M., Sarajedini A., Schatten K.H., and Sofia S. Dynamo based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles. Sol. Phys. 132 (1991) 1
24. Le G.M., and Wang J.-L. Wavelet analysis of several important periodic properties in the relative sunspot numbers. Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 3 (2003) 391
25. Li K.J., Yun H.S., and Gu X.M. On long-term predictions of the maximum sunspot numbers of solar cycles 21 to 23. Astron. Astrophys. 368 (2001) 285
26. Makarov V.I., Tlatov A.G., and Sivaraman K.R. Duration of polar activity cycles and its relationship to sunspot activity. Sol. Phys. 214 (2003) 41
27. Mayaud P.N. The aa-index: a 100 years time series characterizing geomagnetic activity. Geophys. Res. 67 (1972) 6870
28. Nagovitsyn Yu.A. A nonlinear mathematical model for the solar cyclicity and prospects for reconstructing the solar activity in the past. Astron. Lett. 23 (1997) 742
29. Nagovitsyn Yu.A. To the description of long-term variations in the solar magnetic flux: the sunspot area index. Astron. Lett. 31 (2005) 557
30. Nagovitsyn Yu.A. Solar and geomagnetic activity on a long time scale: reconstructions and possibilities for predictions. Astron. Lett. 32 (2006) 344
31. Nagovitsyn Yu.A. Solar cycles during the Maunder minimum. Astron. Lett. 33 (2007) 340
32. Ogurtsov, M.G., 2004. On the possibility of the long-term forecast of solar activity using radiocarbon sunspot proxy. In: Proceedings of the IAU Symposium, vol. 223, p. 135.
33. Ogurtsov M.G. On the possibility of forecasting the Sun's activity using radiocarbon solar proxy. Sol. Phys. 231 (2005) 167
34. Ogurtsov M.G. Modern progress in solar paleoastrophysics and long-range solar-activity forecasts. Astron. Rep. 49 (2005) 495
35. Ohl A.I. On sunspot cycle maximum number of cycle 20. Soln. Dannye 9 (1966) 84
36. Ostryakov V.M., and Usoskin I.G. On the dimension of the solar attractor. Sol. Phys. 127 (1990) 405
37. Schatten, K.H., 1998. forecasting solar activity and cycle 23 outlook. In: Donahue, R.A., Bookbinder, J.A. (Eds.), ASP Conference Series, 154, The Tenth Cambridge Workshop on Cool Stars, Stellar Systems and the Sun, pp. 1315.
38. Schatten K.H. Solar activity prediction. Timing predictors and cycle 24. J. Geophys. Res. 107 (2002) 1377 10.1029/2002JA009404
39. Schatten K.H. Solar activity & the solar cycle. Adv. Space Res. 32 (2003) 451
40. Schatten K. Fair space whether for solar cycle 24. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005) L21211106 10.1029/2005GL024363
41. Schatten K.H., Scherrer P.H., Svalgaard L., and Wilcox J.M. Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. Geophys. Res. Lett. 5 (1978) 411
42. Sello S. Cycle forecasting: a non-linear dynamical approach. Astron. Astrophys. 377 (2001) 312
43. Sello S. Solar cycle activity: a preliminary prediction for cycle #24. Astr. Astrophys. 410 (2003) 69
44. Svalgaard L., Cliver E.W., and Kamide Y. Sunspot cycle 24: smallest cycle in 100 years?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005) L01104 10.1029/2004GL021664
45. Usoskin I.G., and Mursula K. Long-term solar evolution: review of recent developments. Sol. Phys. 218 (2003) 319
46. Waldmeier M. Neue Eigenschaften der Sonnenfleckenkurve. Astron. Mitt. Zürich Nr. 133 (1935)
47. Weiss, N.O., 1987. The solar cycle: an example of deterministic chaos. In: Stephenson, F.R., Wolfendale, A.W. (Eds.), Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 years, p. 69.
48. Weiss N.O., and Tobias S.M. Physical causes of solar variability. Space Sci. Rev. 94 (2004) 99