Estimating the population impact of screening strategies for identifying and treating people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: Modelling study

BMJ (Online)

Volumn 340, Issue 7754, 2010, Pages 1016-

  Chamnan, Parinya ^a   Simmons, Rebecca K ^a   Khaw, Kay Tee ^b   Wareham, Nicholas J ^a   Griffin, Simon J ^a  

^a ADDENBROOKE S HOSPITAL   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTIHYPERTENSIVE AGENT; HYDROXYMETHYLGLUTARYL COENZYME A REDUCTASE INHIBITOR;

ADULT; AGED; ANTHROPOMETRY; ARTICLE; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; COHORT ANALYSIS; DIABETES MELLITUS; FEMALE; FOLLOW UP; GOVERNMENT; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HUMAN; MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION METHOD; MALE; MASS SCREENING; NORFOLK ISLAND; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; PRACTICE GUIDELINE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROPHYLAXIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; QUESTIONNAIRE; RISK REDUCTION; SCORING SYSTEM; STRATIFIED SAMPLE; THERAPY EFFECT; UNITED KINGDOM;

ADULT; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; ENGLAND; FEMALE; HUMANS; LIFE STYLE; MALE; MASS SCREENING; PATIENT ACCEPTANCE OF HEALTH CARE; PATIENT COMPLIANCE; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS;

EID: 77953924886     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17561833     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1136/bmj.c1693     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Hardoon SL, Whincup PH, Lennon LT, Wannamethee SG, Capewell S, Morris RW. How much of the recent decline in the incidence of myocardial infarction in British men can be explained by changes in cardiovascular risk factors? Evidence froma prospective population-based study. Circulation 2008;117:598-604.
2. Peterson S. Coronary heart disease statistics. British Heart Foundation, 2005.
3. British Heart Foundation. Health care and economic costs of CVD and CHD. BHF, 2008. www.heartstats.org/datapage.asp?id=101.
4. Department of Health. Putting prevention first - vascular checks: risk assessment and management. DH, 2008.
5. UK National Screening Committee. Handbook for vascular risk assessment, risk reduction and risk management. 2008. www.library.nhs.uk/HealthManagement/ ViewResource.aspx?resID=282009.
6. Department of Health. Economic modelling for vascular checks. DH, 2008.
7. Department of Health. Putting prevention first: vascular checks, risk assessment and management - impact assessment. DH, 2008.
8. Capewell S. Will screening individuals at high risk of cardiovascular events deliver large benefits? No. BMJ 2008;337:a1395.
9. Jackson R, Wells S, Rodgers A. Will screening individuals at high risk of cardiovascular events deliver large benefits? Yes. BMJ 2008;337:a1371.
10. Shaw C, Abrams K, Marteau TM. Psychological impact of predicting individuals' risks of illness: a systematic review. Soc Sci Med 1999;49:1571-98. (Pubitemid 29428059)
11. D'Agostino RB Sr, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, Wolf PA, Cobain M, Massaro JM, et al. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation 2008;117:743-53. (Pubitemid 351640675)
12. Silventoinen K, Pankow J, Lindstrom J, Jousilahti P, Hu G, Tuomilehto J. The validity of the Finnish diabetes risk score for the prediction of the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke, and total mortality. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 2005;12:451-8. (Pubitemid 44966789)
13. Spijkerman A, Griffin S, Dekker J, Nijpels G, Wareham NJ. What is the risk of mortality for people who are screen positive in a diabetes screening programme but who do not have diabetes on biochemical testing? Diabetes screening programmes from a public health perspective. J Med Screen 2002;9:187-90. (Pubitemid 36135347)
14. Heller RF, Edwards R, McElduff P. Implementing guidelines in primary care: can population impact measures help? BMC Public Health 2003;3:7.
15. Day N, Oakes S, Luben R, Khaw KT, Bingham S, Welch A, et al. EPIC-Norfolk: study design and characteristics of the cohort. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer. Br J Cancer 1999;80(suppl 1):95-103S.
16. Wareham NJ, Jakes RW, Rennie KL, Schuit J, Mitchell J, Hennings S, et al. Validity and repeatability of a simple index derived from the short physical activity questionnaire used in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study. Public Health Nutr 2003;6:407-13. (Pubitemid 36749764)
17. Simmons RK, Harding AH, Wareham NJ, Griffin SJ. Do simple questions about diet and physical activity help to identify those at risk of type 2 diabetes? Diabet Med 2007;24:830-5.
18. Bingham S, Luben R, Welch A, Low YL, Khaw KT, Wareham N, et al. Associations between dietary methods and biomarkers, and between fruits and vegetables and risk of ischaemic heart disease, in the EPIC Norfolk Cohort Study. Int J Epidemiol 2008;37:978-87.
19. Joshipura KJ, Ascherio A, Manson JE, Stampfer MJ, Rimm EB, Speizer FE, et al. Fruit and vegetable intake in relation to risk of ischemic stroke. JAMA 1999;282:1233-9. (Pubitemid 29468494)
20. Joshipura KJ, Hu FB, Manson JE, Stampfer MJ, Rimm EB, Speizer FE, et al. The effect of fruit and vegetable intake on risk for coronary heart disease. Ann Intern Med 2001;134:1106-14.
21. Office for National Statistics. Deaths by health area of usual residence, numbers and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) by sex, 2008 registrations: Population Trends. www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/ssdataset.asp?vlnk= 9877&Pos=&ColRank=1&Rank=272.
22. Boekholdt SM, Peters RJ, Day NE, Luben R, Bingham SA, Wareham NJ, et al. Macrophage migration inhibitory factor and the risk of myocardial infarction or death due to coronary artery disease in adults without prior myocardial infarction or stroke: the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study. Am J Med 2004;117:390-7.
23. Griffin SJ, Little PS, Hales CN, Kinmonth AL, Wareham NJ. Diabetes risk score: towards earlier detection of type 2 diabetes in general practice. Diabetes Metab Res Rev 2000;16:164-71.
24. Lindstrom J, Tuomilehto J. The diabetes risk score: a practical tool to predict type 2 diabetes risk. Diabetes Care 2003;26:725-31.
25. Echouffo-Tcheugui JB, Sargeant LA, Prevost AT, Williams KM, Barling RS, Butler R, et al. How much might cardiovascular disease risk be reduced by intensive therapy in people with screen-detected diabetes? Diabet Med 2008;25:1433-9.
26. Khaw KT, Jakes R, Bingham S, Welch A, Luben R, Day N, et al. Work and leisure time physical activity assessed using a simple, pragmatic, validated questionnaire and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in men and women: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk Prospective Population Study. Int J Epidemiol 2006;35:1034-43.
27. Critchley JA, Capewell S. Mortality risk reduction associated with smoking cessation in patients with coronary heart disease: a systematic review. JAMA 2003;290:86-97.
28. National Collaborating Centre for Chronic Conditions. Hypertension: management of hypertension in adults in primary care: pharmacological update. 2006. www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/pdf/HypertensionGuide.pdf.
29. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. Statins for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease or those with established cardiovascular disease. NICE, 2006.
30. Wood PD, Stefanick ML, Williams PT, Haskell WL. The effects on plasma lipoproteins of a prudent weight-reducing diet, with or without exercise, in overweight men and women. N Engl JMed 1991;325:461-6.
31. Gemmell I, Heller RF, Payne K, Edwards R, Roland M, Durrington P. Potential population impact of the UK government strategy for reducing the burden of coronary heart disease in England: comparing primary and secondary prevention strategies. Qual Saf Health Care 2006;15:339-43.
32. Mant J, Hicks N. Detecting differences in quality of care: the sensitivity of measures of process and outcome in treating acute myocardial infarction. BMJ 1995;311:793-6.
33. Office for National Statistics. Mid-2007 UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland population estimates. 2008. www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ Product.asp?vlnk=15106.
34. Chiuve SE, McCullough ML, Sacks FM, Rimm EB. Healthy lifestyle factors in the primary prevention of coronary heart disease among men: benefits among users and nonusers of lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications. Circulation 2006;114:160-7.
35. Stampfer MJ, Hu FB, Manson JE, Rimm EB, Willett WC. Primary prevention of coronary heart disease in women through diet and lifestyle. N Engl JMed 2000;343:16-22.
36. Pignone M, Earnshaw S, Tice JA, Pletcher MJ. Aspirin, statins, or both drugs for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease events in men: a cost-utility analysis. Ann Intern Med 2006;144:326-36.
37. Kahn R, Robertson RM, Smith R, Eddy D. The impact of prevention on reducing the burden of cardiovascular disease. Circulation 2008;118:576-85.
38. Marshall T, Rouse A. Resource implications and health benefits of primary prevention strategies for cardiovascular disease in people aged 30 to 74: mathematical modelling study. BMJ 2002;325:197-9.
39. Spanjersberg MQ, Kruizinga AG, Rennen MA, Houben GF. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens. Food Chem Toxicol 2007;45:49-54.
40. Baillargeon J. Characteristics of the healthy worker effect. Occup Med 2001;16:359-66.
41. Davies G, Pyke S, Kinmonth AL. Effect of non-attenders on the potential of a primary care programme to reduce cardiovascular risk in the population. Family Heart Study Group. BMJ 1994;309:1553-6.
42. Thomas MC, Walker M, Lennon LT, Thomson AG, Lampe FC, Shaper AG, et al. Non-attendance at re-examination 20 years after screening in the British Regional Heart Study. J Public Health Med 2002;24:285-91.
43. Knops-Dullens T, de Vries N, de Vries H. Reasons for non-attendance in cervical cancer screening programmes: an application of the integrated model for behavioural change. Eur J Cancer Prev 2007;16:436-45.
44. MRC/BHF Heart Protection Study of cholesterol lowering with simvastatin in 20,536 high-risk individuals: a randomised placebo-controlled trial. Lancet 2002;360:7-22.
45. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, Robson J, May M, Brindle P. Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study. BMJ 2007;335:136-41. (Pubitemid 47172233)