Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in a Coupled Model Control Simulation

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 187-211

  Cullather, Richard I ^a   Tremblay, L Bruno ^b  

^a International Research Institute for Climate and Society   (United States)

^b MCGILL UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

Arctic regions Climate; Climatic changes Environmental aspects Arctic Regions; Environmental impact analysis Arctic regions; Sea ice Arctic regions

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; FERROELECTRIC RAM; RECOVERY; SEA ICE;

ARCTIC REGIONS; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; COMMUNITY CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL; CONTROL SIMULATION; COUPLED MODELING; ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS; NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCHES; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES;

ICE CONTROL;

EID: 77953259810     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1029/180GM13     Document Type: Chapter

References (64)

1. Bennike, O. (2004), Holocene sea-ice variations in Greenland: Onshore evidence, Holocene, 14, 607-613.
2. Bitz, C. M., and W. H. Lipscomb (1999), An energy-conserving thermodynamic model of sea ice, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 15,669-15,677.
3. Bitz, C. M., M. M. Holland, M. Eby, and A. J. Weaver (2001), Simulating the ice-thickness distribution in a coupled climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 2441-2463.
4. Bourke, R. H., and R. P. Garrett (1987), Sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic Ocean, Cold Regions Sci. Technol., 13, 259-280.
5. Boyd, T. J., M. Steele, R. D. Muench, and J. T. Gunn (2002), Partial recovery of the Arctic Ocean halocline, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(14), 1657, doi:10.1029/2001GL014047.
6. Briegleb, B. P., C. M. Bitz, E. C. Hunke, W. H. Lipscomb, M. M. Holland, J. L. Schramm, and R. E. Moritz (2004), Scientific description of the sea ice component of the Community Climate System Model, version three, NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-463+STR, 70 pp., Natl. Cent. for Atmos. Res., Boulder, Colo.
7. Carmack, E. C., R. W. Macdonald, R. G. Perkin, F. A. McLaughlin, and R. J. Pearson (1995), Evidence for warming of Atlantic water in the southern Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean: Results from the Larsen-93 expedition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 1061-1064.
8. Chapman, W. L., and J. E. Walsh (2007), Simulations of Arctic temperature and pressure by global coupled models, J. Clim., 20, 609-632.
9. Collins, W. D., et al. (2006a), The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), J. Clim., 19, 2122-2143.
10. Collins, W. D., P. J. Rasch, B. A. Boville, J. J. Hack, J. R. McCaa, D. L. Williamson, B. P. Briegleb, C. M. Bitz, S.-J. Lin, and M.Zhang (2006b), The formulation and atmospheric simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3), J. Clim., 19, 2144-2161.
11. Delworth, T. L., et al. (2006), GFDL's CM 2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Clim., 19, 643-674.
12. Deser, C. (2000), On the teleconnectivity of the "Arctic Oscillation," Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 779-782.
13. DeWeaver, E., and C. M. Bitz (2006), Atmospheric circulation and its effect on Arctic sea ice in CCSM3 simulations at medium and high resolution, J. Clim., 19, 2415-2436.
14. Dickson, R. R., T. J. Osborn, J. W. Hurrell, J. Meincke, J. Blindheim, B. Adlandsvik, T. Vinje, G. Alekseev, and W. Maslowski (2000), The Arctic Ocean response to the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Clim., 13, 2671-2696.
15. Dyke, A. S., J. England, E. Reimnitz, and H. Jetté (1997), Changes in driftwood delivery to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: The hypothesis of postglacial oscillations of the transpolar drift, Arctic, 50, 1-16.
16. Fisher, D., A. Dyke, R. Koerner, J. Bourgeois, C. Kinnard, C. Zdanowicz, A. de Vernal, C. Hillaire-Marcel, J. Savelle, A.Rochon (2006), Natural variability of Arctic sea ice over the Holocene, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(28), 273.
17. Francis, J. A., E. Hunter, J. R. Key, and X. Wang (2005), Clues to variability in Arctic minimum sea ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21501, doi:10.1029/2005GL024376.
18. Gerdes, R., and C. Köberle (2007), Comparison of Arctic sea ice thickness variability in IPCC Climate of the 20th century experiments and in ocean-sea ice hindcasts, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C04S13, doi:10.1029/2006JC003616.
19. Gorodetskaya, I., and L.-B. Tremblay (2008), Arctic cloud properties and radiative forcing from observations and their role in sea ice predicted by the NCAR CCSM3 model during the 21st century, this volume.
20. Gorodetskaya, I. V., L.-B. Tremblay, B. Liepert, M. A. Cane, and R. I. Cullather (2008), The influence of cloud and surface properties on the Arctic Ocean shortwave radiation budget in coupled models, J. Clim., 21, 866-882.
21. Grotefendt, K., K. Logemann, D. Quadfasel, and S. Ronski (1998), Is the Arctic Ocean warming?, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 27,679-27,687.
22. Holland, M. M., C. M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay (2006a), Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503, doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.
23. Holland, M. M., J. Finnis, and M. C. Serreze (2006b), Simulated Arctic Ocean freshwater budgets in the twentieth and twentyfirst centuries, J. Clim., 19, 6221-6242.
24. Holland, M. M., C. M. Bitz, E. C. Hunke, W. H. Lipscomb, and J. L. Schramm (2006c), Influence of the sea ice thickness distribution on polar climate in CCSM3, J. Clim., 19, 2398-2414.
25. Holland, M., C. M. Bitz, B. Tremblay, and D. A. Bailey (2008), The role of natural versus forced change in future rapid summer Arctic ice loss, this volume.
26. Holloway, G., and T. Sou (2002), Has Arctic sea ice rapidly thinned?, J. Clim., 15, 1691-1701.
27. Hunke, E. C., and J. K. Dukowicz (1997), An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea ice dynamics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1849-1867.
28. Hurrell, J. W. (1995), Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676-679.
29. Jochum, M., G. Danabasoglu, M. Holland, Y.-O. Kwon, and W. G. Large (2008), Ocean viscosity and climate, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C06017, doi:10.1029/2007JC004515.
30. Johansen, S. (2001), A dendrochronological analysis of driftwood in Northern Dvina delta and on northern Novaya Zemlya, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 19,929-19,938.
31. Jones, E. P. (2001), Circulation in the Arctic Ocean, Polar Res., 20, 139-146.
32. Kiehl, J. T., and P. R. Gent (2004), The Community Climate System Model, version 2, J. Clim., 17, 3666-3682.
33. Krylov, A. A., I. A. Andreeva, C. Vogt, J. Backman, V. V. Krupskaya, G. E. Grikurov, K. Moran, and H. Shoji (2008), A shift in heavy and clay mineral provenance indicates a middle Miocene onset of a perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, Paleoceanography, 23, PA1S06, doi:10.1029/2007PA001497.
34. Kwok, R. (2000), Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 775-778.
35. Lemke, P., et al. (2007), Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 337-383, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
36. Lipscomb, W. H. (2001), Remapping the thickness distribution in sea ice models, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 13,989-14,000.
37. Meehl, G. A., et al. (2007), Global climate projections, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 747-845, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
38. Ogi, M., and J. M. Wallace (2007), Summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent and the associated summer atmospheric circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12705, doi:10.1029/2007GL029897.
39. Parkinson, C. L. (2006), Earth's cryosphere: Current state and recent changes, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 31, 33-60.
40. Persson, P. O. G., C. W. Fairall, E. L. Andreas, P. S. Guest, and D. K. Perovich (2002), Measurements near the Atmospheric Surface Flux Group tower at SHEBA: Near-surface conditions and surface energy budget, J. Geophys. Res., 107(C10), 8045, doi:10.1029/2000JC000705.
41. Polyakov, I. V., G. V. Alekseev, R. V. Bekryaev, U. S. Bhatt, R. Colony, M. A. Johnson, V. P. Karklin, D. Walsh, and A. V. Yulin (2003), Long-term ice variability in Arctic marginal seas, J. Clim., 16, 2078-2085.
42. Quadfasel, D., A. Sy, D. Wells, and A. Turnik (1991), Warming in the Arctic, Nature, 350, 385.
43. Randall, D. A., et al. (2007), Climate models and their evaluation, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 589-662, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
44. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
45. Rigor, I. G., J. M. Wallace, and R. L. Colony (2002), Response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation, J. Clim., 15, 2648-2663.
46. Rothrock, D. A. (1975), The energetics of the plastic deformation of pack ice by ridging, J. Geophys. Res., 80, 4514-4519.
47. Serreze, M. C., J. E. Walsh, F. S. Chapin III, T. Osterkamp, M. Dyurgerov, V. Romanovsky, W. C. Oechel, J. Morison, T. Zhang, and R. G. Barry (2000), Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment, Clim. Change, 46, 159-207.
48. Serreze, M. C., J. A. Maslanik, T. A. Scambos, F. Fetterer, J. Stroeve, K. Knowles, C. Fowler, S. Drobot, R. G. Barry, and T. M. Haran (2003), A record minimum Arctic sea ice extent and area in 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(3), 1110, doi:10.1029/2002GL016406.
49. Serreze, M. C., M. M. Holland, and J. Stroeve (2007), Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea-ice cover, Science, 315, 1533-1536.
50. Smith, R., and P. Gent (2002), Reference manual for the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM2.0 and 3.0), Rep LAUR-02-2484, Los Alamos Natl. Lab., Los Alamos, N. M.
51. Sorteberg, A., V. Kattsov, J. E. Walsh, and T. Pavlova (2007), The Arctic surface energy budget as simulated with the IPCC AR4 AOGCMs, Clim. Dyn., 29, 131-156.
52. Steele, M., and T. Boyd (1998), Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 10,419-10,435.
53. Stroeve, J. C., M. C. Serreze, F. Fetterer, T. Arbetter, W. Meier, J. Maslanik, and K. Knowles (2005), Tracking the Arctic's shrinking ice cover: Another extreme September minimum in 2004, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04501, doi:10.1029/2004GL021810.
54. Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze (2007), Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
55. Stroeve, J., M. Serreze, S. Drobot, S. Gearheard, M. Holland, J. Maslanik, W. Meier, and T. Scambos (2008), Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007, Eos Trans. AGU, 89(2), 13.
56. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace (1998), The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297-1300.
57. Thorndike, A. S., D. A. Rothrock, G. A. Maykut, and R. Colony (1975), Thickness distribution of sea ice, J. Geophys. Res., 80, 4501-4513.
58. Tremblay, L.-B., L. A. Mysak, and A. S. Dyke (1997), Evidence from driftwood records for century-to-millennial scale variations of the high latitude atmospheric circulation during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 2027-2030.
59. Tremblay, L. B., M. M. Holland, I. V. Gorodetskaya, and G. A. Schmidt (2007), An ice-free Arctic? Opportunities for computational science, Comp. Sci. Eng., 9, 65-74.
60. Uttal, T., et al. (2002), Surface heat budget of the Arctic Ocean, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 255-275.
61. Walsh, D., I. Polyakov, L. Timokhov, and E. Carmack (2007), Thermohaline structure and variability in the eastern Nansen Basin as seen from historical data, J. Mar. Res., 65, 685-714.
62. Wang, X., and J. R. Key (2005), Arctic surface, cloud, and radiation properties based on the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder dataset. Part II: Recent trends, J. Clim., 18, 2575-2593.
63. Yang, J., J. Comiso, D. Walsh, R. Krishfield, and S. Honjo (2004), Storm-driven mixing and potential impact on the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C04008, doi:10.1029/2001JC001248.
64. Zhang, X., and J. E. Walsh (2006), Toward a seasonally icecovered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations, J. Clim., 19, 1730-1747.