메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 40, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 118-129

A bayesian model for sales forecasting at sun microsystems

Author keywords

Bayesian statistics; Markov chain; Monte Carlo; Prior elicitation; Sales forecast

Indexed keywords


EID: 77951169808     PISSN: 00922102     EISSN: 1526551X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1287/inte.1090.0477     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (32)

References (55)
  • 1
    • 33745318120 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • D. B. Yoffie, ed. Harvard Business Press, Boston
    • Baldwin, C. Y., K. B. Clark. 1997. Sun wars: Competition within a modular cluster, 1985-1990. D. B. Yoffie, ed. Competing in the Age of Digital Convergence. Harvard Business Press, Boston, 123-158.
    • (1997) Competing in the Age of Digital Convergence , pp. 123-158
    • Baldwin, C.Y.1    Clark, K.B.2
  • 2
    • 0001449665 scopus 로고
    • A new product growth model for consumer durables
    • Bass, F. M. 1969. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci. 15(5) 215-227.
    • (1969) Management Sci. , vol.15 , Issue.5 , pp. 215-227
    • Bass, F.M.1
  • 5
    • 84935413018 scopus 로고
    • Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: Issues and analysis
    • Bunn, D., G. Wright. 1991. Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: Issues and analysis. Management Sci. 37(5) 501-518.
    • (1991) Management Sci. , vol.37 , Issue.5 , pp. 501-518
    • Bunn, D.1    Wright, G.2
  • 6
    • 0000193853 scopus 로고
    • On Gibbs sampling for state space models
    • Carter, C. K., R. Kohn. 1994. On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika 81(3) 541-543.
    • (1994) Biometrika , vol.81 , Issue.3 , pp. 541-543
    • Carter, C.K.1    Kohn, R.2
  • 7
    • 77951200487 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dell takes wraps off channel partner program
    • (December 5). Retrieved June 10
    • Davis, J. 2007. Dell takes wraps off channel partner program. Channel Insider (December 5). Retrieved June 10, 2008, http://www.channelinsider.com/ article/Dell+Takes+Wraps+Off+Channel+Partner+Program/220950-1.aspx.
    • (2007) Channel Insider
    • Davis, J.1
  • 8
    • 84055169079 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The forbidden city of Terry Gou
    • (August 11). Retrieved June 10
    • Dean, J. 2007. The forbidden city of Terry Gou. Wall Street Journal (August 11). Retrieved June 10, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/public/article/ SB118677584137994489.html.
    • (2007) Wall Street Journal
    • Dean, J.1
  • 9
    • 39649106322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demand forecasting for multiple slow-moving items with short requests history and unequal demand variance
    • Dolgui, A., M. Pashkevich. 2008a. Demand forecasting for multiple slow-moving items with short requests history and unequal demand variance. Internat. J. Production Econom. 112(2) 885-894.
    • (2008) Internat. J. Production Econom. , vol.112 , Issue.2 , pp. 885-894
    • Dolgui, A.1    Pashkevich, M.2
  • 10
    • 34548397569 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the performance of binomial and beta-binomial models of demand forecasting for multiple slow-moving inventory items
    • Dolgui, A., M. Pashkevich. 2008b. On the performance of binomial and beta-binomial models of demand forecasting for multiple slow-moving inventory items. Comput. Oper. Res. 35(3) 893-905.
    • (2008) Comput. Oper. Res. , vol.35 , Issue.3 , pp. 893-905
    • Dolgui, A.1    Pashkevich, M.2
  • 12
    • 58949092119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
    • Fildes, R., P. Goodwin, M. Lawrence, K. Nikolopoulos. 2009. Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning. Internat. J. Forecasting 25(1) 3-23.
    • (2009) Internat. J. Forecasting , vol.25 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-23
    • Fildes, R.1    Goodwin, P.2    Lawrence, M.3    Nikolopoulos, K.4
  • 13
    • 84981426681 scopus 로고
    • Data augmentation and dynamic linear models
    • Frühwirth-Schnatter, S. 1994. Data augmentation and dynamic linear models. J. Time Ser. Anal. 15(2) 183-102.
    • (1994) J. Time Ser. Anal. , vol.15 , Issue.2 , pp. 183-264
    • Frühwirth-Schnatter, S.1
  • 16
    • 0001032163 scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to calculating posterior moments
    • J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, A. F. M. Smith, eds. Clarendon Press, Wotton-under-Edge, Gloucestershire, UK
    • Geweke, J. 1992. Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to calculating posterior moments. J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, A. F. M. Smith, eds. Bayesian Statistics, Vol. 4. Clarendon Press, Wotton-under-Edge, Gloucestershire, UK, 169-193.
    • (1992) Bayesian Statistics , vol.4 , pp. 169-193
    • Geweke, J.1
  • 17
    • 0038069381 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Note on the sampling distribution for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
    • Geweke, J., H. Tanizaki. 2003. Note on the sampling distribution for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 32(4) 775-789.
    • (2003) Comm. Statist. Theory Methods , vol.32 , Issue.4 , pp. 775-789
    • Geweke, J.1    Tanizaki, H.2
  • 18
    • 67649361705 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting seasonal time series
    • G. Elliott, C. Granger, A. Timmermann, eds. North-Holland, Amsterdam
    • Ghysels, E., D. R. Osborn, P. M. M. Rodrigues. 2006. Forecasting seasonal time series. G. Elliott, C. Granger, A. Timmermann, eds. Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 1. North-Holland, Amsterdam, 660-706.
    • (2006) Handbook of Economic Forecasting , vol.1 , pp. 660-706
    • Ghysels, E.1    Osborn, D.R.2    Rodrigues, P.M.M.3
  • 21
    • 0031139519 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applying Bayesian methodology with a uniform prior to the single period inventory model
    • Hill, R. M. 1997. Applying Bayesian methodology with a uniform prior to the single period inventory model. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 98(3) 555-562.
    • (1997) Eur. J. Oper. Res. , vol.98 , Issue.3 , pp. 555-562
    • Hill, R.M.1
  • 22
    • 37349062411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method
    • Huang, C.-Y., G.-H. Tzeng. 2008. Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method. Tech. Forecasting Soc. Change 75(1) 12-31.
    • (2008) Tech. Forecasting Soc. Change , vol.75 , Issue.1 , pp. 12-31
    • Huang, C.-Y.1    Tzeng, G.-H.2
  • 23
    • 61449208779 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How to measure the impact of a forecast error on an enterprise?
    • Kahn, K. B. 2003. How to measure the impact of a forecast error on an enterprise? J. Bus. Forecasting 22(1) 21-25.
    • (2003) J. Bus. Forecasting , vol.22 , Issue.1 , pp. 21-25
    • Kahn, K.B.1
  • 25
    • 0033903250 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes
    • Lawrence, M. J., M. O'Connor, R. H. Edmundson. 2000. A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 122(1) 151-160.
    • (2000) Eur. J. Oper. Res. , vol.122 , Issue.1 , pp. 151-160
    • Lawrence, M.J.1    O'Connor, M.2    Edmundson, R.H.3
  • 26
    • 37349018724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demand forecasting for new technology with a short history in a competitive market: The case of the home networking market in South Korea
    • Lee, C.-Y., J.-D. Lee, Y. Kim. 2008. Demand forecasting for new technology with a short history in a competitive market: The case of the home networking market in South Korea. Tech. Forecasting Soc. Change 75(1) 91-106.
    • (2008) Tech. Forecasting Soc. Change , vol.75 , Issue.1 , pp. 91-106
    • Lee, C.-Y.1    Lee, J.-D.2    Kim, Y.3
  • 28
    • 0003073621 scopus 로고
    • New models from old: Forecasting product adoption by hierarchical Bayes procedures
    • Lenk, P. J., A. G. Rao. 1990. New models from old: Forecasting product adoption by hierarchical Bayes procedures. Marketing Sci. 9(1) 42-57.
    • (1990) Marketing Sci. , vol.9 , Issue.1 , pp. 42-57
    • Lenk, P.J.1    Rao, A.G.2
  • 29
    • 0003866552 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mahajan, V., E. Muller, Y. Wind, eds. Kluwer, Norwell, MA
    • Mahajan, V., E. Muller, Y. Wind, eds. 2000. New-Product Diffusion Models. Kluwer, Norwell, MA.
    • (2000) New-Product Diffusion Models
  • 30
    • 34548176026 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of forecasting improvement on return on shareholder value
    • (Fall)
    • Mentzer, J. T. 1999. The impact of forecasting improvement on return on shareholder value. J. Bus. Forecasting 18(Fall) 8-12.
    • (1999) J. Bus. Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 8-12
    • Mentzer, J.T.1
  • 31
    • 0036592378 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using advance purchase orders to forecast new product sales
    • Moe, W. W., P. S. Fader. 2002. Using advance purchase orders to forecast new product sales. Marketing Sci. 21(3) 347-364.
    • (2002) Marketing Sci. , vol.21 , Issue.3 , pp. 347-364
    • Moe, W.W.1    Fader, P.S.2
  • 32
    • 0031283666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Creating micro-marketing pricing strategies using supermarket scanner data
    • Montgomery, A. L. 1997. Creating micro-marketing pricing strategies using supermarket scanner data. Marketing Sci. 16(4) 315-337.
    • (1997) Marketing Sci. , vol.16 , Issue.4 , pp. 315-337
    • Montgomery, A.L.1
  • 34
    • 0033245998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets
    • Neelamegham, R., P. Chintagunta. 1999. A Bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets. Marketing Sci. 18(2) 115-136.
    • (1999) Marketing Sci. , vol.18 , Issue.2 , pp. 115-136
    • Neelamegham, R.1    Chintagunta, P.2
  • 35
    • 14844293323 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling and forecasting the sales of technology products
    • Neelamegham, R., P. K. Chintagunta. 2004. Modeling and forecasting the sales of technology products. Quant. Marketing Econom. 2(3) 195-232.
    • (2004) Quant. Marketing Econom , vol.2 , Issue.3 , pp. 195-232
    • Neelamegham, R.1    Chintagunta, P.K.2
  • 36
    • 33749465037 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A piecewise-diffusion model of new-product demands
    • Niu, S.-C. 2006. A piecewise-diffusion model of new-product demands. Oper. Res. 54(4) 678-695.
    • (2006) Oper. Res. , vol.54 , Issue.4 , pp. 678-695
    • Niu, S.-C.1
  • 40
    • 58949087537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comments on Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
    • Sanders, N. R. 2009. Comments on "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning." Internat. J. Forecasting 25(1) 24-26.
    • (2009) Internat. J. Forecasting , vol.25 , Issue.1 , pp. 24-26
    • Sanders, N.R.1
  • 41
    • 0011572549 scopus 로고
    • On knowing when to switch from quantitative to judgmental forecasts
    • Sanders, N. R., L. P. Ritzman. 1991. On knowing when to switch from quantitative to judgmental forecasts. Internat. J. Oper. Prduction Management 11(6) 27-37.
    • (1991) Internat. J. Oper. Prduction Management , vol.11 , Issue.6 , pp. 27-37
    • Sanders, N.R.1    Ritzman, L.P.2
  • 43
    • 1242331649 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian determination of the reorder point of a slow moving item
    • Silver, E. A. 1965. Bayesian determination of the reorder point of a slow moving item. Oper. Res. 13(6) 989-997.
    • (1965) Oper. Res. , vol.13 , Issue.6 , pp. 989-997
    • Silver, E.A.1
  • 44
    • 67449114030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Functional regression: A new model for predicting market penetration of new products
    • Sood, A., G. M. James, G. J. Tellis. 2009. Functional regression: A new model for predicting market penetration of new products. Marketing Sci. 28(1) 36-51.
    • (2009) Marketing Sci. , vol.28 , Issue.1 , pp. 36-51
    • Sood, A.1    James, G.M.2    Tellis, G.J.3
  • 46
    • 2442658930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dynamic effect of innovation on market structure
    • van Heerde, H. J., C. F. Mela, P. Manchanda. 2004. The dynamic effect of innovation on market structure. J. Marketing Res. 41(2) 166-183.
    • (2004) J. Marketing Res. , vol.41 , Issue.2 , pp. 166-183
    • Van Heerde, H.J.1    Mela, C.F.2    Manchanda, P.3
  • 51
    • 34249936685 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting practices of JIT and non-JIT purchasers
    • Wisner, J., L. Stanley. 1994. Forecasting practices of JIT and non-JIT purchasers. Eur. J. Purchasing Supply Management 1(4) 219-225.
    • (1994) Eur. J. Purchasing Supply Management , vol.1 , Issue.4 , pp. 219-225
    • Wisner, J.1    Stanley, L.2
  • 52
    • 34248413771 scopus 로고
    • The psychology of forecasting
    • Wright, G., P. Ayton. 1986. The psychology of forecasting. Futures 18(3) 420-439.
    • (1986) Futures , vol.18 , Issue.3 , pp. 420-439
    • Wright, G.1    Ayton, P.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.