Design and use of preference markets for evaluation of early stage technologies

Journal of Management Information Systems

Volumn 26, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 45-70

  Chen, Li ^a   Goes, Paulo ^b   Marsden, James ^c   Zhang, Zhongju ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

Author keywords

Convergence; Incentives; Information market; Market performance; Preference aggregation; Preference ranking market; Technology evaluation

Indexed keywords

INFORMATION MARKET; MARKET PERFORMANCE; PREFERENCE AGGREGATIONS; PREFERENCE RANKING; TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION;

COMPUTER CRIME; PERSONNEL; SEMICONDUCTOR QUANTUM DOTS; TECHNOLOGY;

COMMERCE;

EID: 77749333414     PISSN: 07421222     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2753/MIS0742-1222260302     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Agarwal, R.; Tanniru, M.R.; and Dacruz, M. Knowledge-based support for combining qualitative and quantitative judgments in resource allocation decisions. Journal of Management Information Systems, 9, 1 (Summer 1992), 165-184.
2. Ankenbrand, B.H., and Rudzinski, C. Description and analysis of information markets. Working paper, Universitat Witten/Herdecke, Germany, 2005.
3. Arakji, R.Y., and Lang, K.R. Digital consumer networks and producer-consumer collaboration: Innovation and product development in the video game industry. Journal of Management Information Systems, 24, 2 (Fall 2007), 195-219.
4. Avison, D.; Lau, F.; Myers, M.; and Nielsen, P.A. Action research. Communications of the ACM, 42, 1 (January 1999), 94-97.
5. Bapna, R.; Goes, P.; Gupta, A.; and Jin, Y. User heterogeneity and its impact on electronic auction market design: An empirical exploration. MIS Quarterly, 28, 1 (March 2004), 21-43.
6. Bapna, R.; Goes, P.; Gupta, A.; and Karuga, G. Predicting bidders' willingness to pay in online multi-unit ascending auctions: Analytical and empirical insights. INFORMS Journal on Computing, 20, 3 (Summer 2008), 345-355.
7. Benaroch, M. Managing information technology investment risk: A real options perspective. Journal of Management Information Systems, 19, 2 (Fall 2002), 43-84.
8. Berg, J.E.; Forsythe, R.; and Rietz, T.A. What makes markets predict well? Evidence from the Iowa Electronic Markets. In W. Albers, W. Güth, P. Hammerstein, B. Moldovanu, and E. van Damme (eds.), Understanding Strategic Interaction: Essays in Honor of Reinhard Selten. New York: Springer, 1996, pp. 444-463.
9. Berg, J.E.; Forsythe, R.; Nelson, F.D.; and Reitz, T.A. Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research. In C.A. Plott and V. Smith (eds.), Handbook of Experimental Economics Results. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 2004, pp. 742-751.
10. Brennan, M.J., and Trigeorgis, L. Project Flexibility, Agency, and Options. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000.
11. Chen, K., and Plott, C. Information aggregation mechanisms concept, design implementation for a sales forecasting problem. Working paper, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, 2002.
12. Cooper, R.G.; Edgett, S.J.; and Kleinschmidt, E.J. Portfolio Management for New Products. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley, 1998.
13. Cooper, R.G.; Edgett, S.J.; and Kleinschmidt, E.J. Optimizing the stage-gate process: What best-practice companies are doing. Research Technology Management, 45, 5 (September- October 2002), 21-27.
14. Dahan, E., and Hauser, J.R. The virtual customer. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 19, 5 (September 2002), 332-353.
15. Dahan, E.; Soukhoroukova, A.; and Spann, M. New product development 2.0: Preference markets-How scalable securities markets identify winning product concepts and attributes. Journal of Product Innovation Management (2010), forthcoming.
16. Dahan, E.; Kim, A.J.; Lo, A.W.; Poggio. T.; and Chan, N.T. Securities trading of concepts (STOC). Working paper, Department of Marketing, University of California, Los Angeles, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 2009.
17. Day, G., and Schoemaker, P. Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2000.
18. Fama, E.F. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25, 2 (May 1970), 383-417.
19. Geng, X.; Stinthcombe, M.B.; and Whinston, A.B. Radically new product introduction using on-line auctions. International Journal of Electronic Commerce, 5, 3 (Spring 2001), 169-189.
20. Hanson, R.; Oprea, R.; and Porter, D. Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 60, 4 (August 2006), 449-459.
21. Hoffman, E.; Marsden, J.R.; and Whinston, A. Using different economic data forms. Journal of Behavioral Economics, 15, 4 (Winter 1986), 67-84.
22. Hoffman, E.; Marsden, J.R.; and Whinston, A. Laboratory experiments and computer simulation: An introduction to the use of experimental and process model data in economic analysis. In J. Kagel and L. Green (eds.), Advances in Behavioral Economics, vol.2. Norwood, NJ: Ablex, 1990, pp. 1-31.
23. Kavadias, S., and Loch, C.H. Project Selection Under Uncertainty: Dynamically Allocating Resources to Maximize Value. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic, 2003.
24. Kirchner, M. Underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets: An experimental study. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 33, 2 (February 2009), 491-506.
25. Klarriech, E. Best guess. Science News, 164 (October 2003), 251-253.
26. Krishnan, V., and Bhattacharya, S. Technology selection and commitment in a new product development: The role of uncertainty and design flexibility. Management Science, 48, 3 (March 2002), 313-327.
27. LaComb, C.A. GE's imagination markets. GE Global Research, Technical Information Series, Niskayuna, October 2007 (available at http://people.ku.edu/ ~cigar/PMConf-2007/ ChristinaLaComb(GEs%20Imagination%20Markets).pdf).
28. LaComb, C.A.; Barnett, J.A.; and Pan, Q. The imagination market. Information Systems Frontiers, 9, 2 (March 2007), 245-256.
29. Loch, C., and Kavadias, S. Dynamic portfolio selection of NPD programs using marginal returns. Management Science, 48, 10 (October 2002), 1227-1241.
30. Lucas, R.E. Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4, 2 (April 1972), 103-124.
31. Marsden, J.R., and Tung, Y.T. The use of information system technology to develop tests on insider trading and asymmetric information. Management Science, 45, 8 (August 1999), 1025-1040.
32. Muth, J.F. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, 29, 3 (July 1961), 315-335.
33. Oliven, K., and Rietz, T.A. Suckers are born but markets are made: Individual rationality, arbitrage, market efficiency on an electronic futures market. Management Science, 50, 3 (March 2004), 336-351.
34. Peffers, K.; Gengler, C.E.; and Tuunanen, T. Extending critical success factors methodology to facilitate broadly participative information systems planning. Journal of Management Information Systems, 20, 1 (Summer 2003), 51-85.
35. Pennock, D.M.; Lawrence, S.; Nielsen, F.A.; and Giles, C.L. Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from web games. In Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. New York: ACM Press, 2001, pp. 174-183.
36. Plott, C. Markets as information gathering tools. Southern Economic Journal, 67, 1 (July 2000), 2-15.
37. Plott, C., and Sunder, S. Rational expectations and the aggregation of diverse information in laboratory security markets. Econometrica, 56, 5 (September 1988), 1085-1118.
38. Porter, M.E. How competitive forces shape strategy. Harvard Business Review, 57 (March-April 1979), 137-145.
39. Ray, R. Prediction markets and the financial "wisdom of crowds." Journal of Behavioral Finance, 7, 1 (March 2006), 2-4.
40. Roussel, P.A.; Saad, K.N.; and Erickson, T.J. Third Generation R&D: Managing the Link to Corporate Strategy. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1991.
41. Servan-Schreiber, E.; Wolfers, J.; Pennock, D.; and Galebach, B. Prediction markets: Does money matter? Electronic Markets, 14, 3 (September 2004), 243-251.
42. Slamka, C.; Jank, W.; and Skiera, B. Second-generation prediction markets for information aggregation: A comparison of payoff mechanisms. Working paper, Decision and Information Technologies Department, University of Maryland, College Park, 2009.
43. Smith, V.L. Microeconomic systems as an experimental science. American Economic Review, 72, 5 (December 1982), 923-955.
44. Soukhoroukova, A., and Spann, M. New product development with Internet-based information markets: Theory and empirical application. In 13th European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS), Regensburg, Germany, May 26-28, 2005.
45. Soukhoroukova, A.; Spann, M.; and Skiera, B. Creating and evaluating new product ideas with idea markets. Working paper, Department of Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, 2009.
46. Spann, M., and Skiera, B. Internet-based virtual stock markets for business forecasting. Management Science, 49, 10 (October 2003), 1310-1326.
47. Spann, M.; Ernst, H.; Skiear, B.; and Soll, J.H. Identification of lead users for consumer products via virtual stock markets. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 26, 3 (May 2009), 322-335.
48. Sriram, S.; Chintagunta, P.K.; and Neelamegham, R. Effects of preference, product attributes, and marketing mix variables in technology product markets. Marketing Science, 25, 5 (September-October 2006), 440-458.
49. Sunder, S. Experimental asset markets: A survey. In J.H. Kagel and A.E. Roth (eds.), The Handbook of Experimental Economics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995, pp. 445-500.
50. Sunstein, C.R. Deliberations and information markets. In R.W. Hahn and P.C. Tetlock (eds.), Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions. Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2006, pp. 67-100.
51. Surowiecki, J. The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday, 2004.
52. Terwiesch, C., and Ulrich, K.T. Innovation Tournaments: Creating and Selecting Exceptional Opportunities. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2009.
53. Tiwana, A., and McLean, E.R. Expertise integration and creativity in information systems development. Journal of Management Information Systems, 22, 1 (Summer 2005), 13-43.
54. Totty, M. Business solutions. Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2006, R9.
55. Tung, Y.A., and Marsden, J.R. Trading volumes with and without private information: A study using computerized market experiments. Journal of Management Information Systems, 17, 1 (Summer 2000), 31-57.
56. Von Hayek, F.A. The use of knowledge in society. American Economic Review, 35, 4 (June 1945), 519-530.
57. Wolfers, J., and Zitzewitz, E. Prediction markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 2 (Spring 2004), 107-126.
58. Ziamou, P., and Veryzer, R.W. The influence of temporal distance on consumer p for technology-based innovations. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 22, 4 (July 2005), 336-346.