메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 12, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 5-20

Futures 2.0: Rethinking the discipline

Author keywords

Psychology; Research methods; Strategic planning; Thinking styles

Indexed keywords


EID: 77049120280     PISSN: 14636689     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1108/14636681011020191     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (32)

References (86)
  • 1
    • 77049124616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Humans prefer cockiness to expertise
    • available at: www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227115.500 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Aldhous, P. (2009), “Humans prefer cockiness to expertise”, available at: www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227115.500 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2009)
    • Aldhous, P.1
  • 2
    • 22644437866 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: notes on the epistemic element in scenario building
    • Aligica, P. (2005), “Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: notes on the epistemic element in scenario building”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 815-24.
    • (2005) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.72 , pp. 815-824
    • Aligica, P.1
  • 4
    • 77049105726 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • We're swayed by confidence more than expertise
    • available at: www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=644&date=1 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Ariely, D. (2009), “We're swayed by confidence more than expertise”, available at: www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=644&date=1 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2009)
    • Ariely, D.1
  • 5
    • 0019148594 scopus 로고
    • The seer-sucker theory: the value of experts in forecasting
    • Armstrong, J.S. (1980), “The seer-sucker theory: the value of experts in forecasting”, Technology Review, Vol. 83, pp. 16-24.
    • (1980) Technology Review , vol.83 , pp. 16-24
    • Armstrong, J.S.1
  • 6
    • 53949086790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How to make better forecasts and decisions: avoid face-to-face meetings
    • Armstrong, J.S. (2006), “How to make better forecasts and decisions: avoid face-to-face meetings”, International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Vol. 5, pp. 3-15.
    • (2006) International Journal of Applied Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 3-15
    • Armstrong, J.S.1
  • 9
    • 23744475475 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • My future self: young children's ability to anticipate and explain future states
    • Atance, C. and Meltzoff, N. (2005), “My future self: young children's ability to anticipate and explain future states”, Cognitive Development, Vol. 20, pp. 341-61.
    • (2005) Cognitive Development , vol.20 , pp. 341-361
    • Atance, C.1    Meltzoff, N.2
  • 11
    • 34249342345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bias in macroeconomic forecasts
    • Batchelor, R. (2007), “Bias in macroeconomic forecasts”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23 No. 2, pp. 189-203.
    • (2007) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 189-203
    • Batchelor, R.1
  • 12
    • 84979382445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conservatism and consensus-seeking among economic forecasters
    • Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (2006), “Conservatism and consensus-seeking among economic forecasters”, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11 No. 2, pp. 169-81.
    • (2006) Journal of Forecasting , vol.11 , pp. 169-181
    • Batchelor, R.1    Dua, P.2
  • 13
    • 34547229262 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hindsight bias and developing theories of mind
    • Bernstein, D., Atance, C., Meltzoff, N. and Loftus, G.R. (2007), “Hindsight bias and developing theories of mind”, Child Development, Vol. 78 No. 4, pp. 1374-94.
    • (2007) Child Development , vol.78 , pp. 1374-1394
    • Bernstein, D.1    Atance, C.2    Meltzoff, N.3    Loftus, G.R.4
  • 14
    • 34447576234 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hindsight bias: on being wise after the event
    • Blank, H., Musch, J. and Pohl, R. (2007), “Hindsight bias: on being wise after the event”, Social Cognition, Vol. 25 No. 1, pp. 1-9.
    • (2007) Social Cognition , vol.25 , pp. 1-9
    • Blank, H.1    Musch, J.2    Pohl, R.3
  • 15
    • 77049113901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • First person plural
    • available at: www.theatlantic.com/doc/200811/multiple-personalities (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Bloom, P. (2008), “First person plural”, available at: www.theatlantic.com/doc/200811/multiple-personalities (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2008)
    • Bloom, P.1
  • 16
    • 20444437996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
    • Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burta, G., Cairns, G. and Van Der Heijdena, K. (2005), “The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning”, Futures, Vol. 37 No. 8, pp. 795-812.
    • (2005) Futures , vol.37 , pp. 795-812
    • Bradfield, R.1    Wright, G.2    Burta, G.3    Cairns, G.4    Van Der Heijdena, K.5
  • 17
    • 0348097293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions
    • in Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. and Kahneman, D. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Buehler, R., Griffin, D. and Ross, M. (2002), “Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions”, in Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. and Kahneman, D. (Eds), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 250-70.
    • (2002) Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , pp. 250-270
    • Buehler, R.1    Griffin, D.2    Ross, M.3
  • 19
    • 0002313777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The process-performance paradox in expert judgment: how can experts know so much and predict so badly?
    • in Goldstein, W.M. and Hogarth, R.M. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Camerer, C. and Johnson, E. (1997), “The process-performance paradox in expert judgment: how can experts know so much and predict so badly?”, in Goldstein, W.M. and Hogarth, R.M. (Eds), Research on Judgment and Decision Making: Currents, Connections, and Controversies, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 342-64.
    • (1997) Research on Judgment and Decision Making: Currents, Connections, and Controversies , pp. 342-364
    • Camerer, C.1    Johnson, E.2
  • 20
    • 0014527651 scopus 로고
    • Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs
    • Chapman, L. and Chapman, J. (1969), “Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs”, Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Vol. 74, pp. 271-80.
    • (1969) Journal of Abnormal Psychology , vol.74 , pp. 271-280
    • Chapman, L.1    Chapman, J.2
  • 21
    • 0036784315 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Futurist networks: cases of epistemic community?
    • Cinquegrani, R. (2002), “Futurist networks: cases of epistemic community?”, Futures, Vol. 34, pp. 779-83.
    • (2002) Futures , vol.34 , pp. 779-783
    • Cinquegrani, R.1
  • 22
    • 55649100724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The zeitgeist of futures?
    • Cole, S. (2008), “The zeitgeist of futures?”, Futures, Vol. 40, pp. 893-926.
    • (2008) Futures , vol.40 , pp. 893-926
    • Cole, S.1
  • 23
    • 63449094457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expert financial advice neurobiologically ‘offloads’ financial decision-making under risk
    • Engelmann, J., Capra, C., Noussair, C. and Berns, G. (2009), “Expert financial advice neurobiologically ‘offloads’ financial decision-making under risk”, PLoS ONE, Vol. 4 No. 3.
    • (2009) PLoS ONE , vol.4
    • Engelmann, J.1    Capra, C.2    Noussair, C.3    Berns, G.4
  • 24
    • 44249122520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Internet clean-slate design: what and why?
    • Feldmann, A. (2007), “Internet clean-slate design: what and why?”, Computer Communications Review, Vol. 37 No. 3, pp. 59-64.
    • (2007) Computer Communications Review , vol.37 , pp. 59-64
    • Feldmann, A.1
  • 25
    • 33747927436 scopus 로고
    • Hindsight ≠ foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty
    • Fischhoff, B. (1975), “Hindsight ≠ foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty”, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, Vol. 1, pp. 288-99.
    • (1975) Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance , vol.1 , pp. 288-299
    • Fischhoff, B.1
  • 26
    • 35548967921 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An early history of hindsight research
    • Fischhoff, B. (2007), “An early history of hindsight research”, Social Cognition, Vol. 25 No. 1, pp. 10-13.
    • (2007) Social Cognition , vol.25 , pp. 10-13
    • Fischhoff, B.1
  • 27
    • 0016613601 scopus 로고
    • ‘I knew it would happen:’ remembered probabilities of once-future things
    • Fischhoff, B. and Beyth, R. (1975), “‘I knew it would happen:’ remembered probabilities of once-future things”, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, Vol. 13, pp. 1-16.
    • (1975) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.13 , pp. 1-16
    • Fischhoff, B.1    Beyth, R.2
  • 29
    • 34248236721 scopus 로고
    • Science for the post-normal age
    • Funtowicz, S. and Ravetz, J. (1993), “Science for the post-normal age”, Futures, Vol. 25 No. 7, pp. 735-55.
    • (1993) Futures , vol.25 , pp. 735-755
    • Funtowicz, S.1    Ravetz, J.2
  • 34
    • 26844468014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biases and fallacies, memories and predictions: comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie (2005)
    • Griffin, D. and Buehler, R. (2005), “Biases and fallacies, memories and predictions: comment on Roy, Christenfeld, and McKenzie (2005)”, Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 131 No. 5, pp. 757-60.
    • (2005) Psychological Bulletin , vol.131 , pp. 757-760
    • Griffin, D.1    Buehler, R.2
  • 35
    • 24144464538 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making development work: using markets to improve performance
    • Hahn, R. and Tetlock, P. (2005), “Making development work: using markets to improve performance”, Policy Review, Vol. 132, pp. 27-39.
    • (2005) Policy Review , vol.132 , pp. 27-39
    • Hahn, R.1    Tetlock, P.2
  • 36
    • 77049090106 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bosses prefer overconfident managers
    • available at: www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/bosses_prefer_o.html (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Hanson, R. (2006), “Bosses prefer overconfident managers”, available at: www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/bosses_prefer_o.html (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2006)
    • Hanson, R.1
  • 38
    • 34248366547 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From prediction to learning: opening experts' minds to unfolding history
    • Herrmann, R. and Choi, J.K. (2007), “From prediction to learning: opening experts' minds to unfolding history”, International Security, Vol. 31 No. 4, pp. 132-61.
    • (2007) International Security , vol.31 , pp. 132-161
    • Herrmann, R.1    Choi, J.K.2
  • 39
    • 0013468441 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analyzing the analysts: career concerns and biased earnings forecasts
    • Hong, H. and Kubik, J.D. (2003), “Analyzing the analysts: career concerns and biased earnings forecasts”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 58, pp. 313-51.
    • (2003) Journal of Finance , vol.58 , pp. 313-351
    • Hong, H.1    Kubik, J.D.2
  • 40
    • 9244255265 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers
    • Hong, L. and Page, S. (2004), “Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 101 No. 46, pp. 16385-9.
    • (2004) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , vol.101 , pp. 16385-16389
    • Hong, L.1    Page, S.2
  • 41
    • 35348820216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using forecasting markets to manage demand risk
    • Hopman, J. (2007), “Using forecasting markets to manage demand risk”, Intel Technology Journal, Vol. 11 No. 2, pp. 127-36.
    • (2007) Intel Technology Journal , vol.11 , pp. 127-136
    • Hopman, J.1
  • 42
    • 0346694424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgment based software development effort prediction intervals
    • Jørgensen, M., Teigen, K.H. and Moløkken, K. (2004), “Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgment based software development effort prediction intervals”, Journal of Systems and Software, Vol. 70 Nos 1/2, pp. 79-93.
    • (2004) Journal of Systems and Software , vol.70 , pp. 79-93
    • Jørgensen, M.1    Teigen, K.H.2    Moløkken, K.3
  • 43
    • 84986010006 scopus 로고
    • Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk
    • Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979), “Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk”, Econometrica, Vol. 47 No. 2, pp. 263-92.
    • (1979) Econometrica , vol.47 , pp. 263-292
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 44
    • 39849110424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States
    • Kellstedt, P., Zahran, S. and Vedlitz, A. (2008), “Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States”, Risk Analysis, Vol. 28 No. 1, pp. 113-26.
    • (2008) Risk Analysis , vol.28 , pp. 113-126
    • Kellstedt, P.1    Zahran, S.2    Vedlitz, A.3
  • 49
    • 0036197169 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Futures studies in the 21st century: a reality-based view
    • Marien, M. (2002), “Futures studies in the 21st century: a reality-based view”, Futures, Vol. 34, pp. 261-81.
    • (2002) Futures , vol.34 , pp. 261-281
    • Marien, M.1
  • 50
    • 34547570859 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The future of human benefit knowledge: notes on a world brain for the 21st century
    • Marien, M. (2007), “The future of human benefit knowledge: notes on a world brain for the 21st century”, Futures, Vol. 39, pp. 955-62.
    • (2007) Futures , vol.39 , pp. 955-962
    • Marien, M.1
  • 52
    • 33748058872 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rethinking futures studies
    • Masini, E. (2006), “Rethinking futures studies”, Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 1158-68.
    • (2006) Futures , vol.38 , pp. 1158-1168
    • Masini, E.1
  • 53
    • 67749104153 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can we reinvent the internet?
    • Mayer-Schönberger, V. (2009), “Can we reinvent the internet?”, Science, Vol. 325 No. 5939, pp. 396-7.
    • (2009) Science , vol.325 , pp. 396-397
    • Mayer-Schönberger, V.1
  • 54
    • 77049127635 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The value of advice
    • available at: www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=647&date=1 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Nir, A. (2009), “The value of advice”, available at: www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=647&date=1 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2009)
    • Nir, A.1
  • 56
    • 84986090249 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rise of the machines
    • book review
    • Pang, A. (2003), “Rise of the machines”, book review, Los Angeles Times, pp. 12-13.
    • (2003) Los Angeles Times , pp. 12-13
    • Pang, A.1
  • 57
    • 77049101835 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thoughts on design + futures
    • available at: http://askpang.typepad.com/relevant_history/2009/01/thoughts-on-design-futures.html (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Pang, A. (2009), “Thoughts on design + futures”, available at: http://askpang.typepad.com/relevant_history/2009/01/thoughts-on-design-futures.html (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2009)
    • Pang, A.1
  • 58
    • 33747810743 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fear of foresight: knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight
    • Pina e Cunha, M., Palmab, P. and Guimaraes da Costa, N. (2006), “Fear of foresight: knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight”, Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 942-55.
    • (2006) Futures , vol.38 , pp. 942-955
    • Pina e Cunha, M.1    Palmab, P.2    Guimaraes da Costa, N.3
  • 59
    • 33747796603 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight
    • Ramos, J. (2006), “Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight”, Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 1119-24.
    • (2006) Futures , vol.38 , pp. 1119-1124
    • Ramos, J.1
  • 60
    • 77049123087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dealing with uncertainty in numbers
    • unpublished manuscript, available at: www.nusap.net/download.php?op=getit&lid=13 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Ravetz, J. (2002), “Dealing with uncertainty in numbers”, unpublished manuscript, available at: www.nusap.net/download.php?op=getit&lid=13 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2002)
    • Ravetz, J.1
  • 61
    • 34147124230 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Post-normal science and the complexity of transitions towards sustainability
    • Ravetz, J. (2006), “Post-normal science and the complexity of transitions towards sustainability”, Ecological Complexity, Vol. 3 No. 4, pp. 275-84.
    • (2006) Ecological Complexity , vol.3 , pp. 275-284
    • Ravetz, J.1
  • 63
    • 9944238860 scopus 로고
    • Dilemmas in a general theory of planning
    • Rittel, H. and Webber, M. (1973), “Dilemmas in a general theory of planning”, Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, pp. 155-69.
    • (1973) Policy Sciences , vol.4 , pp. 155-169
    • Rittel, H.1    Webber, M.2
  • 64
    • 67449110711 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The clean-slate approach to future internet design: a survey of research initiatives
    • Roberts, J. (2009), “The clean-slate approach to future internet design: a survey of research initiatives”, Annals of Telecommunications, Vol. 64 No. 5, pp. 271-6.
    • (2009) Annals of Telecommunications , vol.64 , pp. 271-276
    • Roberts, J.1
  • 65
    • 0002844530 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identity through time: constructing personal pasts and futures
    • in Tesser, A. and Schwarz, N. (Eds), Blackwell Press, Oxford: Intraindividual Processes
    • Ross, M. and Buehler, R. (2001), “Identity through time: constructing personal pasts and futures”, in Tesser, A. and Schwarz, N. (Eds), Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology, Volume 1: Intraindividual Processes, Blackwell Press, Oxford, pp. 518-44.
    • (2001) Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology , pp. 518-544
    • Ross, M.1    Buehler, R.2
  • 67
    • 26844492851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Underestimating the duration of future events: memory incorrectly utilized or memory bias?
    • Roy, M.M., Christenfeld, N.J.S. and McKenzie, C.R.M. (2005), “Underestimating the duration of future events: memory incorrectly utilized or memory bias?”, Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 131 No. 5, pp. 738-56.
    • (2005) Psychological Bulletin , vol.131 , pp. 738-756
    • Roy, M.M.1    Christenfeld, N.J.S.2    McKenzie, C.R.M.3
  • 69
    • 33744508896 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eliciting experts’ knowledge: a comparison of two methods
    • Scapolo, F. and Miles, I. (2006), “Eliciting experts’ knowledge: a comparison of two methods”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 73, pp. 679-704.
    • (2006) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.73 , pp. 679-704
    • Scapolo, F.1    Miles, I.2
  • 70
    • 77049111667 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why the experts missed the crash
    • available at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/17/pf/experts_Tetlock.moneymag/index.htm (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Schurenberg, E. (2009), “Why the experts missed the crash”, available at: http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/17/pf/experts_Tetlock.moneymag/index.htm (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2009)
    • Schurenberg, E.1
  • 71
    • 31344460779 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ethical obligations and futures studies
    • Serra, J. (2006), “Ethical obligations and futures studies”, Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 367-9.
    • (2006) Futures , vol.38 , pp. 367-369
    • Serra, J.1
  • 72
    • 84965954976 scopus 로고
    • History of science and its sociological reconstruction
    • Shapin, S. (1982), “History of science and its sociological reconstruction”, History of Science, Vol. 20, pp. 157-211.
    • (1982) History of Science , vol.20 , pp. 157-211
    • Shapin, S.1
  • 73
    • 84985817886 scopus 로고
    • Priming and communication: social determinants of information use in judgments of life satisfaction
    • Strack, F., Martin, L. and Schwarz, N. (1988), “Priming and communication: social determinants of information use in judgments of life satisfaction”, European Journal of Social Psychology, Vol. 18 No. 5, pp. 429-42.
    • (1988) European Journal of Social Psychology , vol.18 , pp. 429-442
    • Strack, F.1    Martin, L.2    Schwarz, N.3
  • 74
    • 0014142370 scopus 로고
    • Actuarial, naive clinical, and sophisticated clinical prediction of pathology from figure drawings
    • Strickler, S. (1967), “Actuarial, naive clinical, and sophisticated clinical prediction of pathology from figure drawings”, Journal of Consulting Psychology, Vol. 31, pp. 492-4.
    • (1967) Journal of Consulting Psychology , vol.31 , pp. 492-494
    • Strickler, S.1
  • 76
    • 4043090294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Like it or not? The mental time travel debate: reply to Clayton et al.
    • Suddendorf, T. and Busby, J. (2003b), “Like it or not? The mental time travel debate: reply to Clayton et al.”, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Vol. 7 No. 10, pp. 437-8.
    • (2003) Trends in Cognitive Sciences , vol.7 , pp. 437-438
    • Suddendorf, T.1    Busby, J.2
  • 77
    • 36148997648 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The evolution of foresight: what is mental time travel and is it unique to humans?
    • Suddendorf, T. and Corballis, M.C. (2007), “The evolution of foresight: what is mental time travel and is it unique to humans?”, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol. 30 No. 3, pp. 299-313.
    • (2007) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.30 , pp. 299-313
    • Suddendorf, T.1    Corballis, M.C.2
  • 79
    • 33846273048 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neural substrates of envisioning the future
    • Szpunar, K., Watson, J. and McDermott, K. (2007), “Neural substrates of envisioning the future”, PNAS, Vol. 104 No. 2, pp. 642-7.
    • (2007) PNAS , vol.104 , pp. 642-647
    • Szpunar, K.1    Watson, J.2    McDermott, K.3
  • 83
    • 77049113097 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reading tarot on K Street
    • available at: www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22040 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • Tetlock, P. (2009), “Reading tarot on K Street”, available at: www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=22040 (accessed 9 November 2009).
    • (2009)
    • Tetlock, P.1
  • 85
    • 84865746436 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using prediction markets to enhance US intelligence capabilities: a ‘Standard & Poors 500 Index’ for intelligence
    • Yeh, P.F. (2006), “Using prediction markets to enhance US intelligence capabilities: a ‘Standard & Poors 500 Index’ for intelligence”, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 50 No. 4, pp. 137-49.
    • (2006) Studies in Intelligence , vol.50 , pp. 137-149
    • Yeh, P.F.1
  • 86
    • 84934562078 scopus 로고
    • A simple theory of the survey response: answering questions versus revealing preferences
    • Zaller, J. and Feldman, S. (1992), “A simple theory of the survey response: answering questions versus revealing preferences”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 36 No. 3, pp. 579-616.
    • (1992) American Journal of Political Science , vol.36 , pp. 579-616
    • Zaller, J.1    Feldman, S.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.