메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 259, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 710-719

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

Author keywords

Climate change; Risk management process; Risk modelling; Simulation

Indexed keywords

CASH FLOW; CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS; CLIMATE PARAMETERS; CLIMATE SCENARIOS; DIFFERENT TIME SCALE; DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL; ECONOMIC EFFECT; ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS; ECONOMIC PARAMETERS; EUROPEAN BEECH; FAGUS SYLVATICA; FINANCIAL EFFECTS; FOREST AREA; FOREST LAND; GERMANY; INTEREST RATES; LAND EXPECTATION VALUE; LINEAR MODEL; NATIONAL FOREST INVENTORIES; NORWAY SPRUCE; PICEA ABIES; PRESENCE/ABSENCE; REDUCTION IN AREA; RISK LEVELS; TREE GROWTH;

EID: 73449126499     PISSN: 03781127     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.08.021     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (70)

References (60)
  • 1
    • 0000603126 scopus 로고
    • Contributions to our knowledge on the growth of trees: the height/diameter ratio is more than a measure of slenderness
    • Abetz P., and Kramer H. Contributions to our knowledge on the growth of trees: the height/diameter ratio is more than a measure of slenderness. Forst und Holzwirt 31 (1976) 389-393
    • (1976) Forst und Holzwirt , vol.31 , pp. 389-393
    • Abetz, P.1    Kramer, H.2
  • 2
    • 73449083805 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AG-KLIWA (Ed.), 2006. Regionale Klimaszenarien für Süddeutschland - Abschätzung der Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt - KLIWA Heft 9. LUBW-Baden-Württemberg, p. 101.
    • AG-KLIWA (Ed.), 2006. Regionale Klimaszenarien für Süddeutschland - Abschätzung der Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt - KLIWA Heft 9. LUBW-Baden-Württemberg, p. 101.
  • 3
    • 68949119980 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sturmaktivität über der nordatlantisch-europäischen Region vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels - eine Literaturübersicht
    • Albrecht A., Schindler D., Grebhan K., Kohnle U., and Mayer H. Sturmaktivität über der nordatlantisch-europäischen Region vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels - eine Literaturübersicht. Allgemeine Forst- und Jagdzeitung 180 5/6 (2009) 109-118
    • (2009) Allgemeine Forst- und Jagdzeitung , vol.180 , Issue.5-6 , pp. 109-118
    • Albrecht, A.1    Schindler, D.2    Grebhan, K.3    Kohnle, U.4    Mayer, H.5
  • 4
    • 52949151964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends
    • Anderson K., and Bows A. Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends. Philosophical Transactions A, Royal Society 366 (2008) 3863-3882
    • (2008) Philosophical Transactions A, Royal Society , vol.366 , pp. 3863-3882
    • Anderson, K.1    Bows, A.2
  • 6
    • 50249122195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zum optimalen Einschlagszeitpunkt von Fichtenbeständen
    • Beinhofer B. Zum optimalen Einschlagszeitpunkt von Fichtenbeständen. Allgemeine Forst und Jagdzeitung 179 (2008) 121-132
    • (2008) Allgemeine Forst und Jagdzeitung , vol.179 , pp. 121-132
    • Beinhofer, B.1
  • 8
    • 41049090459 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The probability of wind damage in forestry under a changed wind climate
    • Blennow K., and Olofsson E. The probability of wind damage in forestry under a changed wind climate. Climatic Change 87 (2008) 347-360
    • (2008) Climatic Change , vol.87 , pp. 347-360
    • Blennow, K.1    Olofsson, E.2
  • 10
    • 33746820859 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advancements and new approaches in climate spatial prediction and environmental modelling
    • Böhner J. Advancements and new approaches in climate spatial prediction and environmental modelling. Arbeitsberichte des Geographischen Instituts der HU zu Berlin 109 (2005) 49-90
    • (2005) Arbeitsberichte des Geographischen Instituts der HU zu Berlin , vol.109 , pp. 49-90
    • Böhner, J.1
  • 11
    • 34848921483 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The north-eastern distribution range of European beech - a review
    • Bolte A., Czajkowski T., and Kompa T. The north-eastern distribution range of European beech - a review. Forestry 80 (2007) 413-429
    • (2007) Forestry , vol.80 , pp. 413-429
    • Bolte, A.1    Czajkowski, T.2    Kompa, T.3
  • 12
    • 71049123167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Anpassung der Wälder an den Klimawandel - was Klimahüllen uns verschweigen
    • Bolte A., Ibisch P., Menzel A., and Rothe A. Anpassung der Wälder an den Klimawandel - was Klimahüllen uns verschweigen. Allgemeine Forst und Jagdzeitung 63 (2008) 800-803
    • (2008) Allgemeine Forst und Jagdzeitung , vol.63 , pp. 800-803
    • Bolte, A.1    Ibisch, P.2    Menzel, A.3    Rothe, A.4
  • 13
    • 84856685209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Business economics of conversion and transformation - a case study of Norway Spruce in Northern Germany
    • Spiecker H., Hansen J., Klimo E., Skovsgaard J., Sterba H., and von Teuffel K. (Eds), European Forest Institute, Research Report 18, S. Brill, Leiden, Boston, Köln
    • Bredahl Jacobsen J., Möhring B., and Wippermann C. Business economics of conversion and transformation - a case study of Norway Spruce in Northern Germany. In: Spiecker H., Hansen J., Klimo E., Skovsgaard J., Sterba H., and von Teuffel K. (Eds). Norway Spruce Conversion: Options and Consequences. (2004), European Forest Institute, Research Report 18, S. Brill, Leiden, Boston, Köln 225-252
    • (2004) Norway Spruce Conversion: Options and Consequences. , pp. 225-252
    • Bredahl Jacobsen, J.1    Möhring, B.2    Wippermann, C.3
  • 15
    • 0009449052 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques
    • Dieter M. Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques. Forest Policy and Economics 2 (2001) 157-166
    • (2001) Forest Policy and Economics , vol.2 , pp. 157-166
    • Dieter, M.1
  • 17
    • 0000198123 scopus 로고
    • Calculation of the value which forest land and immature stands possess for forestry
    • (Reprinted from Commonwealth Forestry Institute of Oxford, Institute Paper 42, 1968)
    • Faustmann M. Calculation of the value which forest land and immature stands possess for forestry. Journal of Forest Economics 1 1995 (1849) (Reprinted from Commonwealth Forestry Institute of Oxford, Institute Paper 42, 1968)
    • (1849) Journal of Forest Economics , vol.1 , Issue.1995
    • Faustmann, M.1
  • 19
    • 0034523969 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating risk in forest planning models
    • Gadow K.v. Evaluating risk in forest planning models. Silva Fennica 34 (2000) 181-191
    • (2000) Silva Fennica , vol.34 , pp. 181-191
    • Gadow, K.v.1
  • 20
    • 0034610199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
    • Guisan A., and Zimmermann N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135 (2000) 147-186
    • (2000) Ecological Modelling , vol.135 , pp. 147-186
    • Guisan, A.1    Zimmermann, N.E.2
  • 22
    • 49249108924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 77 years of natural disturbances in a mountain forest area - the influence of storm, snow and insect damage analysed with a long-term time-series
    • Hanewinkel M., Breidenbach J., Neeff T., and Kublin E. 77 years of natural disturbances in a mountain forest area - the influence of storm, snow and insect damage analysed with a long-term time-series. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38 (2008) 2249-2261
    • (2008) Canadian Journal of Forest Research , vol.38 , pp. 2249-2261
    • Hanewinkel, M.1    Breidenbach, J.2    Neeff, T.3    Kublin, E.4
  • 23
    • 0020083498 scopus 로고
    • The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve
    • Hanley J., and McNeil B. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 143 (1982) 29-36
    • (1982) Radiology , vol.143 , pp. 29-36
    • Hanley, J.1    McNeil, B.2
  • 26
    • 33644645630 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A forest management risk insurance model and its application to coniferous stands in southwest Germany
    • Holecy J., and Hanewinkel M. A forest management risk insurance model and its application to coniferous stands in southwest Germany. Forest Policy and Economics 8 (2006) 161-174
    • (2006) Forest Policy and Economics , vol.8 , pp. 161-174
    • Holecy, J.1    Hanewinkel, M.2
  • 27
    • 0019540987 scopus 로고
    • On the quantitative definition of risk
    • Kaplan S., and Garrick B.J. On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis 1 (1980) 11-27
    • (1980) Risk Analysis , vol.1 , pp. 11-27
    • Kaplan, S.1    Garrick, B.J.2
  • 29
    • 39749149125 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Admixing broadleaved to coniferous tree species: a review on yield, ecological stability and economics
    • Knoke T., Ammer C., Stimm B., and Mosandl R. Admixing broadleaved to coniferous tree species: a review on yield, ecological stability and economics. European Journal of Forest Research 127 (2008) 89-101
    • (2008) European Journal of Forest Research , vol.127 , pp. 89-101
    • Knoke, T.1    Ammer, C.2    Stimm, B.3    Mosandl, R.4
  • 30
    • 33745932671 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mixed forests and a flexible harvest policy: a problem for conventional risk analysis
    • Knoke T., and Wurm J. Mixed forests and a flexible harvest policy: a problem for conventional risk analysis. European Journal of Forest Research 125 (2006) 303-315
    • (2006) European Journal of Forest Research , vol.125 , pp. 303-315
    • Knoke, T.1    Wurm, J.2
  • 32
    • 73449106866 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • König, A., 1995. Sturmgefährdung von Beständen im Altersklassenwald. J.D. Sauerländer's, Frankfurt a.M.
    • König, A., 1995. Sturmgefährdung von Beständen im Altersklassenwald. J.D. Sauerländer's, Frankfurt a.M.
  • 34
    • 0001335994 scopus 로고
    • Windthrow probability as a function of stand characteristics and shelter
    • Lohmander P., and Helles F. Windthrow probability as a function of stand characteristics and shelter. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research 2 (1987) 227-238
    • (1987) Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research , vol.2 , pp. 227-238
    • Lohmander, P.1    Helles, F.2
  • 36
    • 73449122311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What influences results of bioclimate envelope models? A sensitivity analysis for five sources of uncertainty. Adaptation to Climate Change, Umea
    • Mbogga, M., Hamann, A., 2008. What influences results of bioclimate envelope models? A sensitivity analysis for five sources of uncertainty. Adaptation to Climate Change, Umea, 26th August 2008.
    • (2008) 26th August
    • Mbogga, M.1    Hamann, A.2
  • 39
    • 17744388612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Betriebswirtschaftliche Analyse des Waldumbaus
    • Möhring B. Betriebswirtschaftliche Analyse des Waldumbaus. Forst und Holz 59 (2004) 523-530
    • (2004) Forst und Holz , vol.59 , pp. 523-530
    • Möhring, B.1
  • 43
    • 0034670135 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change
    • Peterson C.J. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change. The Science of the Total Environment 262 (2000) 287-311
    • (2000) The Science of the Total Environment , vol.262 , pp. 287-311
    • Peterson, C.J.1
  • 45
    • 0141563721 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strategic planning of sustainable development on the estate level - contributions from forest growth and yield science
    • Pretzsch H. Strategic planning of sustainable development on the estate level - contributions from forest growth and yield science. Forstwissenschaftliches Centralblatt - Tharandter Forstliches Jahrbuch v 122 4 (2003) 231-249
    • (2003) Forstwissenschaftliches Centralblatt - Tharandter Forstliches Jahrbuch v , vol.122 , Issue.4 , pp. 231-249
    • Pretzsch, H.1
  • 46
    • 0021442512 scopus 로고
    • The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest
    • Reed W.J. The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 11 (1984) 180-190
    • (1984) Journal of Environmental Economics and Management , vol.11 , pp. 180-190
    • Reed, W.J.1
  • 47
    • 73449123077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bewertung von Waldbaumarten anhand der KlimaArtenMatrix
    • Roloff A., and Grundmann B. Bewertung von Waldbaumarten anhand der KlimaArtenMatrix. Allgemeine Forstzeitschrift 63 (2008) 1086-1088
    • (2008) Allgemeine Forstzeitschrift , vol.63 , pp. 1086-1088
    • Roloff, A.1    Grundmann, B.2
  • 48
    • 73449087397 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An inventory-based approach for modeling single tree storm damage - experiences with the winter storm 1999 in southwestern Germany
    • (in Review)
    • Schmidt M., Hanewinkel M., Kändler G., Kublin E., and Kohnle U. An inventory-based approach for modeling single tree storm damage - experiences with the winter storm 1999 in southwestern Germany. Canadian Journal of Forest Research (2009) (in Review)
    • (2009) Canadian Journal of Forest Research
    • Schmidt, M.1    Hanewinkel, M.2    Kändler, G.3    Kublin, E.4    Kohnle, U.5
  • 49
    • 33745951423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vulnerability of spruce (Picea abies) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest stands to storms and consequences for silviculture
    • Schütz J.P., Götz M., Schmid W., and Mandallaz D. Vulnerability of spruce (Picea abies) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest stands to storms and consequences for silviculture. European Journal of Forest Research 125 (2006) 291-302
    • (2006) European Journal of Forest Research , vol.125 , pp. 291-302
    • Schütz, J.P.1    Götz, M.2    Schmid, W.3    Mandallaz, D.4
  • 50
    • 0000120766 scopus 로고
    • Estimating the dimension of a model
    • Schwarz G. Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics 6 (1978) 461-464
    • (1978) Annals of Statistics , vol.6 , pp. 461-464
    • Schwarz, G.1
  • 51
    • 33644902044 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Silvicultural measures to increase the mechanical stability of pure secondary Norway spruce stands before conversion
    • Slodicak M., and Novak J. Silvicultural measures to increase the mechanical stability of pure secondary Norway spruce stands before conversion. Forest Ecology and Management 224 (2006) 252-257
    • (2006) Forest Ecology and Management , vol.224 , pp. 252-257
    • Slodicak, M.1    Novak, J.2
  • 53
    • 21444452996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spiecker H., Hansen J., Klimo E., Skovsgaard J., Sterba H., and von Teuffel K. (Eds), European Forest Institute, Research Report 18, S. Brill, Leiden, Boston, Köln
    • In: Spiecker H., Hansen J., Klimo E., Skovsgaard J., Sterba H., and von Teuffel K. (Eds). Norway Spruce Conversion: Options and Consequences (2004), European Forest Institute, Research Report 18, S. Brill, Leiden, Boston, Köln
    • (2004) Norway Spruce Conversion: Options and Consequences
  • 54
    • 33644513133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Faustmann rotation apply to fully regulated forests?
    • Tahvonen O., and Viitala E.J. Faustmann rotation apply to fully regulated forests?. Forest Science 52 (2007) 23-30
    • (2007) Forest Science , vol.52 , pp. 23-30
    • Tahvonen, O.1    Viitala, E.J.2
  • 55
    • 33644697480 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Going to the Extremes - an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events
    • Tebaldi C., Hayhoe K., Arblaster J., and Meehl G. Going to the Extremes - an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 79 (2006) 185-211
    • (2006) Climatic Change , vol.79 , pp. 185-211
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Hayhoe, K.2    Arblaster, J.3    Meehl, G.4
  • 56
    • 34547642494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and the ecologist
    • Thuiller W. Climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448 (2007) 550-552
    • (2007) Nature , vol.448 , pp. 550-552
    • Thuiller, W.1
  • 58
    • 0009450179 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Faustmann in an uncertain policy environment
    • Zhang D. Faustmann in an uncertain policy environment. Forest Policy and Economics 2 (2001) 203-210
    • (2001) Forest Policy and Economics , vol.2 , pp. 203-210
    • Zhang, D.1
  • 60
    • 71649108439 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Die Kastanie im Engadin - oder was halten Baumarten von modellierten Potenzialgebieten
    • Zimmermann N.E., and Bugmann H. Die Kastanie im Engadin - oder was halten Baumarten von modellierten Potenzialgebieten. Schweiz Z Forstwes (Swiss Forestry Journal) 159 (2008) 326-335
    • (2008) Schweiz Z Forstwes (Swiss Forestry Journal) , vol.159 , pp. 326-335
    • Zimmermann, N.E.1    Bugmann, H.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.