Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: Application to a medium size basin of Mediterranean Spain

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 13, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 793-811

  Amengual, A ^a   Romero, R ^a   Vich, M ^a   Alonso, S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITAT DE LES ILLES BALEARS   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENT; DISCHARGE; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FLASH FLOOD; FLOOD; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; HYDROMETEOROLOGY; MORTALITY; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RAINGAUGE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VORTICITY; WATERSHED;

CATALONIA; LLOBREGAT BASIN; SPAIN;

EID: 73149086178     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-13-793-2009     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Ag̀encia Catalana de l'Aigua: Delimiting of flood plain for the draft of the INUNCAT. Internal Basins of Catalonia. Hydrological calculations and determination of the flood wave discharge, Vol.2, Departament de Medi Ambient, Generalitat de Catalunya, 88 pp., 2001.
2. Ag̀encia Catalana de l'Aigua: Technical recommendations for flood studies at local area, Departament de Medi Ambient, Generalitat de Catalunya, 106 pp., 2003.
3. Amengual A., Romero R., Ǵomez M., Martín A., and Alonso S.:A hydrometeorological modeling study of a flash flood event over Catalonia, Spain, J. Hydrometeor., 8, 282-303, 2007. (Pubitemid 47091120)
4. Amengual A., Romero R., and Alonso S.: Hydrometeorological ensemble simulations of flood events over a small basin of Majorca Island, Spain, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 1221-1242, 2008.
5. Anderson, M. L., Chen, Z. Q., Kavvas, M. L., and Feldman, A.: Coupling HEC-HMS with atmospheric models for prediction of watershed runoff, J. Hydrol. Eng., 7, 312-318, 2002.
6. Bacchi, B., Buzzi, A., Grossi, G., and Ranzi R.: Flood forecasting in a midsize catchment in the southern Alps: Recent experiences on the use of couple meteorological and hydrological model, Proceedings of the third EGS Plinius conference, Baja Sardinia, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Roma, Italy, 201-208, 2002.
7. Bartholmes, J. C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M. H., and Gentilini, S.: The european flood alert system EFAS - Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 141-153, 2009, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/141/2009/.
8. Benjamin, S. G. and Seaman, N. L.: A simple scheme for improved objective analysis in curved flow, Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1184-1198, 1985.
9. Benoit, R., Pellerin, P., Kouwen, N., Ritchie, H., Donaldson, N., Joe, P., and Soulis, E. D.: Toward the use of coupled atmospheric and hydrologic models at regional scale, Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1681-1706, 2000.
10. Benoit, R., Kouwen, N., Yu, W., Chamberland, S., and Pellerin, P.: Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 877-889, 2003, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/7/877/2003/.
11. Bhagarva, M. and Danard, M.: Application of optimum interpolation to the analysis of precipitation in complex terrain, J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 508-518, 1994.
12. Blackadar, A. K.: High resolution models of the planetary boundary layer, Adv. Environ. Sci. Eng., 1, 50-85, 1979.
13. Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. N.: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation, J. Atmos. Sci. Eng., 52, 1434-1456, 1995.
14. Chancibault, K., Anquetin, S., Ducrocq, V., and Saulnier, G.-M.: Hydrological evaluation of high-resolution precipitation forecasts of the Gard flash flood event (8-9 September 2002), Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 132, 1091-1117, 2006.
15. Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and Mays L. W.: Applied hydrology, McGraw-Hill International Editions, Civil engineering series, 572 pp., 1988
16. Davis, C. A. and Emanuel, K. A.: Potential vorticity diagnosis of ciclogenesis, Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1929-1953, 1991.
17. De Roo, A., Gouweleeuw, B., Thielen, J., Bates, P., Hollingsworth, A., et al.: Development of a European Flood Forecasting System, Int. J. River Basin Management, 1(1), 49-59, 2003.
18. Diaconis, P. and Efron, B.: Computer-intensive methods in statistics, Sci. Am., 248, 116-130, 1983.
19. Diomede, T., Davolio, S., Marsigli, C., Miglietta, M. M., Moscatello, A., and Papetti, P.: Discharge ensemble predictions based on multi-model precipitations forecasts, Geophy. Res. Abstr., 8, EGU06-A-06931, 2006.
20. Diomede, T., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., and Todini, E.: The use of meteorological analogues to account for LAM QPF uncertainty, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 141-157, 2008, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/141/2008/.
21. Dolcińe, L., Andrieu, H., Sempere-Torres, D., and Creutin D.: Flash flood forecasting with coupled precipitation model in mountainous mediterranean basin, J. Hydrol. Eng., 6, 1-9, 2001.
22. Du, J., Mullen, S. L., and Sanders, F.: Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation, Mon.Wea. Rev., 125, 2427-2459, 1997.
23. Ducrocq, V., Lebeaupin, C., Thouvenin, T., and Anquetin, S.: Mesoscale modelling of a cooding storm. Application to the extreme flood of Gard, 5th EGS Plinius conference, Ajaccio, Corsica, France, 2003.
24. Dudhia, J.: A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front, Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1493-1513, 1993.
25. Epstein, E. S.: Stochastic dynamic prediction, Tellus, 21, 739-759, 1969.
26. Ferraris, L., Rudari R., and Siccardi, F.: The uncertainty in the prediction of flash floods in the Northern Mediterranean environment, J. Hydrometeor., 3, 714-727, 2002.
27. Gouweleeuw, B. T., Thielen, J., Franchello, G., De Roo, A. P. J., and Buizza, R.: Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 365-380, 2005, http://www.hydrol-earth- syst-sci.net/9/365/2005/.
28. Homar, V., Romero, R., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: Numerical study of the October 2000 torrential precipitation event over eastern Spain: Analysis of the synoptic-scale stationarity, Ann. Geophys., 20, 2047-2066, 2002, http://www.ann-geophys.net/20/2047/2002/.
29. Hong, S.-Y. and Pan, H.-L.: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model, Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2322-2339, 1996.
30. Hoskins, B. J., McIntyre, M. E., and Robertson, A. W.: On the use and significance of isoentropic potential vorticity maps, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 877-946, 1985.
31. Houtekamer, P. L. and Derome, J.: Methods for ensemble prediction, Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2181-2196, 1995.
32. Jasper, K. and Kaufmann, P.: Coupled runoff simulations as validation tools for atmospheric models at the regional scale, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 673-692, 2003.
33. Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson D. B.: Forecast verification. A practitioner's guide in atmospheric science, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., Chichester, West Sussex, England, 240 pp., 2003.
34. Jones, M. S., Colle, B. A., and Tongue, J. S.: Evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecats system over the northeast United States, Wea. Forecast., 22, 36-55, 2007.
35. Kain, J. S.: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update, J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 170-181, 2004.
36. Krajewski, W. F.: Cokriging radar-rainfall and rain gauge data, J. Geophys. Res., 92(D8), 9571-9580, 1987.
37. Leith, C. E.: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418, 1974.
38. Linsley, R. K., Kohler, M. A., and Paulhus J. L. H.: Hydrology for engineers, 3rd edition, McGraw-Hill International Editions, New York, 508 pp., 1982.
39. Llasat, M. C., Rigo, T., and Barriendos, M.: The 'Montserrat-2000' flash flood event: A comparasion with the floods that have ocurred in the northeast iberian peninsula since the 14th century, Int. J. Climat., 23, 453-469, 2003.
40. Martín, A., Romero, R., Homar, V., de Luque, A., Alonso, S., Rigo, T., and Llasat, M. C.: Sensitivities of a flash flood event over Catalonia: A numerical analysis, Mon.Wea. Rev., 135, 651-669, 2007.
41. Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T.: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119, 1996.
42. Mullen, S. L. and Baumhefner, D. P.: Sensitivity to numerical simulations of explosive oceanic cyclogenesis to changes in physical parameterizations, Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2289-2329, 1988.
43. Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I: A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10(3), 282-290, 1970.
44. Ranzi, R., Bacchi, B., Grossi, G., Buzzi, A., Malguzzi, P., Ratto, C., and Corazza, M.: Previsioni di piena mediante un modello idrologico e un modello meteorologico ad area limitata: Alcune esperienze applicative durante l'esperimento MAP-SOP, Atti del XXVII Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Genova, 12-15 settembre 2000, Vol.II, 385-393, 2000.
45. Reisner, J., Rasmussen, R. J., and Bruintjes R. T.: Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124B, 1071-1107, 1998.
46. Romero, R., Doswell III, C. A., and Ramis, C.: Mesoscale numerical study of two cases of long-lived quasistationary convective systems over eastern Spain, Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3731-3751, 2000.
47. Romero, R.: Sensitivity of a heavy rain producingWestern Mediterranean cyclone to embedded potential vorticity anomalies, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2559-2597, 2001.
48. Romero, R., Martín, A., Homar, V., Alonso, S., and Ramis, C.: Predictability of prototype flash flood events in theWestern Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance, Adv. Geosci., 7, 55-63, 2006, http://www.adv-geosci.net/7/55/2006/.
49. Roulin, E.: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 725-737, 2007, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/725/2007/.
50. Schaake, J., Franz, K., Bradley, A., and Buizza, R.: The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 3321-3332, 2006, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/3/3321/2006/.
51. Schaake, J., Hamill, T. M., Buizza, R., and Clark, M.: HEPEX, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1541-1547, 2007.
52. Seo, D. J.: Real-time estimation of rainfall fields using radar rainfall and rain gage data, J. Hydrol., 208, 37-52, 1998.
53. Siccardi, F.: Rainstorm hazards and related disasters in the western Mediterranean region, Rem. Sens. Rev., 14, 5-21, 1996.
54. Stensrud, D. J. and Fritsch, J. M.: Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part II: Generation of a mesoscale initial condition, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2068-2083, 1994a.
55. Stensrud, D. J. and Fritsch, J. M.: Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2084-2104, 1994b.
56. Stensrud, D. J., Bao, J.-W., and Warner, T. T.: Using initial and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective events, Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2077-2107, 2000.
57. Stensrud, D. J. and Yussouf, N.: Reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from a short-range ensemble forecasting system, Wea. Forecast., 22, 3-17, 2007.
58. Taramasso, A. C., Gabellani, S., and Parodi, A.: An operational flash-flood forecasting chain applied to the test cases of the EU project HYDROPTIMET, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 703-710, 2005, http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/5/703/2005/.
59. Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Ramos, M.-H., and de Roo, A.: The European Flood Alert System-Part 1: Concept and development, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 125-140, 2009, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/125/2009/.
60. Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E.: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2317-2330, 1993.
61. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center: HEC-HMS Hydrologic Modeling system user's manual, USACE-HEC, Davis, California, 188 pp., 1998
62. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center: Hydrologic Modeling system HEC-HMS. Technical reference manual, USACE-HEC, Davis, California, 157 pp., 2000.
63. US Department of Agriculture: Urban hydrology for small watersheds. Technical release 55 of the Nature Resources Conservation Service,US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC, USA, 1986.
64. Wilks, D.S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 2nd edition, Elsiever Academic Press Publications, International Geophysics Sciences, 627 pp., 2006.
65. Younis, J., Anquetin, S., and Thielen, J.: The benefit of highresolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1039-1051, 2008, http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1039/2008/.
66. Zhang, D. L. and Anthes, R. A: A high resolution model of the planetary boundary layer. Sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data, J. App. Meteor., 21, 1594-1609, 1982.
67. Zhang, D. L. and Fritsch, J. M.: Numerical simulation of the mesoscale structure and evolution of the 1977 Johnstown flood. Part I: Model description and verification, J. App. Meteor., 43, 1913-1943, 1986.