The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 12, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 1039-1051

  Younis, J ^a   Anquetin, S ^b   Thielen, J ^a  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^b UNIV GRENOBLE ALPES   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DISCHARGE; FLASH FLOOD; MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; WARNING SYSTEM; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CEVENNES; EURASIA; EUROPE; FRANCE; MASSIF CENTRAL; WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 49049099599     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-12-1039-2008     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Anquetin S., Creutin, J. D., Delrieu, G., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., and Ruin, L.: Increasing the forecasting lead-time of Weather driven flash floods, Report on http://natural-hazards.jrc.it./downloads/public/ 2004report_FeasibilityStudyOnFlashfloods.pdf, 2004.
2. Anquetin, S., Yates, E., Ducrocq, V., Samouillan, S., Chancibault, K., Gozzini, B., Pasi, F., Pasqui, M., Garcia, M., Martorell, M., Romero, R., Silvio, D., Accadia, C., Casaidi, M., Mariani, S., Ficca, G., and Chesa, P.: The 8 and 9 September 2002 flash flood event in France: an intercomparison of operational and research meteorological models, Nat. Hazards Earth System Sci., 5, 741-754, 2005.
3. Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC): Flash Flood forecasting over complex terrain, the National Academies Press, http://www.nap.edu/catalog. php?record_id=11128, 2005.
4. Borga, M., Tonelli, F., Moore, R. J., and Andrieu, H.: Long-term assessment of bias adjustment in radar rain-fall estimation, Water Resources Research, 38(11), 1226, doi: 10.1029/2001WR000555, 2002.
5. Boudevillain, B., Delrieu, G., Chapon, B., Kirstetter, P.-E., Nicol J., and Andrieu, H.: The Bollène-2002 experiment: innovative algorithms and evaluation of processing strategies for radar QPE in the Cévennes - Vivarais region, Proceeding of the 4th European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology, Barcelona, 157-160, 2006.
6. Chancibault, K., Anquetin, S., Ducrocq, V., and Saulnier, G.-M.: Hydrological evaluation of high-resolution precipitation forecast of the Gard flash flood event (8-9 September 2002), Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 132, 1091-1117, 2006.
7. Chapon, B.: Etude des pluies intenses dans la région Cévennes-Vivarais à l'aide du radar météorologique. Régionalisation des traitements radar et analyse granulométrique des pluies au sol, PhD Thesis (in French) University Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, 197 p., 2006.
8. Chen, S.-T. and Yu, P.-S.: Real-time probabilistic forecasting of flood stages, J. Hydrology, 340(1-2), 63-77, 2007.
9. Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and Mays, L. M.: Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, Singapore, 1988.
10. Collier, C.: Flash Flood Forecasting: What are the limits of predictability? Q.J.RM.S., 133, 622A, 3-23, 2007.
11. Creutin, J. D. and Borga, M.: Radar Hydrology modifies the monitoring of flash flood hazard, Hydrological processes, 17(7), 1453-1456, 2003.
12. Delrieu G., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Nicol, J., Payrastre, O., Yates, E., Kirstetter, P. E., Andrieu, H., Ayral, P.-A., Bouvier, C., Creutin, J.-D., Livet, M., Anquetin, S., Lang, M., Neppel, L., Obled, C., Parent-du- Châtelet, J., Saulnier, G.-M., Walpersdorf, A., and Wobrock, W.: The catastrophic flash flood event of 8-9 September 2002 in the Gard region, France: a first case study for the Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean Hydro-meteorological Observatory, J. Hydrometeorology, 6, 34-52, 2005.
13. De Roo, A., Odijk, M., Schmuck, G., Koster, E., and Lucieer, A.: Assessing the effects of land use changes on floods in the Meuse and Oder catchment, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, 26(7), 593-599, 2001.
14. Ducrocq, V., Aullo, G., and Santurette, P.: Les precipitations intenses des 12 et 13 novembre 1999 sur le sud de la France, La Mété orologie, 42, 18-27, 2003.
15. Everhardus, C., de Roo, A., de Jong, S.: Validation of the LIS-FLOOD runoff model for a mountainous catchment. Report of the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, EUR 20514 EN, 2002.
16. Feyen L.: Calibration of the LISFLOOD model for Europe: current status and way forward, European Commission EUR22125 EN, 2005.
17. Feyen, L., Vrugt, J. A., Ó Nualláinc, B., van der Knijff, J., de Roo, A.: Parameter optimisation and uncertainty assessment for largescale streamflow simulation with the LISFLOOD model, J, Hydrol., 332(3-4), 276-289, 2007.
18. Fritsch, J. M., Houze, R. A. J., Adler, R., Bluestein, H., Bosart, L., Brown, J., Carr, F., Davis, C., Johnson, R. H., Junker, N., Kuo, Y. H., Rutledge, S., Smith, J., Toth, Z., Wilson, J. W., Zipser, E., Zrnic, D.: Quantitative precipitation forecasting: report of the 8th prospectus development team, U.S. Weather Research Program, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 285-299, 1998.
19. Georgakakos, K. P.: Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance, J. Hydrol., 317(1-2), 81-103, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.009, 2006.
20. Gruntfest E. and Handmer, J.: Coping with flash flood, Ed. NATO Science Series, 322 p, 1999.
21. Huet, P., Martin, X., Prime, J.-L., Foin, P., Laurain, C., and Cannard, P.: Retour d'expérience des crues de septembre 2002 dans les départements du Gard, de l'Hérault, du Vaucluse, des Bouches-du-Rhône, de l'Ardèche et de la Drôme. Technical report, Ministère de l'Ecologie et du Développement Durable, République Française, 133 pp, 2003.
22. Lindström, G., Johansson, B., Persson, M., Gardelin, M. and Bergström, S.: Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model, J. Hydrol., 201, 272-288, 1997.
23. Nuissier, O. Ducrocq, V., Ricard, D., Thouvenain, T. and Anquetin, S.: A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over western Mediterranean region (Southern France), Part I: Numerical framework and synoptic ingredients, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134(630), 111-130, doi:10.1029/10.1002/ qj.200, 2008.
24. Palmer, T. N. and Räisänen, J.: Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate, Nature, 415, 512-514, 2002.
25. Parry M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P., and Hanson, C.: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, 840 p., 2007.
26. Ramos M.-H., Bartholmes J., and Thielen-del Pozo, J.: Development of decision support products based on ensemble forecasts in the European flood alert system, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 8, 113-119, 2007.
27. Reed, S., Schaake, J., and Zhang, Z.: A distributed hydrologic model and threshold frequency-based method for flash flood forecasting at ungauged locations. Journal of Hydrology, 337(3-4), 402-420, 2007.
28. Rosso R. and Rulli, M. C.: An integrated simulation method for flash flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective; Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 6(3), 285-294, 2002.
29. Ruin I., Creutin, J.-D., Anquetin, S., and Lutoff, C.: Human exposure to flash floods - relation between flood parameters and human vulnerability during a storm of September 2002 in Southern France, J. Hydrol., in press, 2008.
30. Sénési, S., Bougeault, P., Chèze, J. L., and Cosentino, P.: The Vaison le Romaine Flask flood: Meso-Scale Analysis and Pre-dictability Issues. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 417-442, 1996.
31. Smith R. E. and Goodrich, D. C.: Rainfall Excess Overland Flow, Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 1707-1718, 2005.
32. Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Ramos, M.-H., and De Roo, A.: The European Flood Alert System - Part 1: Concept and development, Hydrol. Earth System Sci. Discuss., 5(1), 257-287, 2008.
33. Todini E.: The ARNO rainfall-runoff model, J. Hydrol., 175, 339-382, 1996.
34. van der Knijff, J. M., and de Roo, A.: LISFLOOD Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model. Report of the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, EUR 22166 EN, 2006.
35. Yates, E., Creutin, J.-D., Anquetin, S., and Rivoirard, J.: A scale dependant quality index of areal rainfall prediction, J. Hydrometeorology, 8(2), 160-170, 2007.
36. Zhao, R. J. and Liu X. R.: The Xinanjiang model, in: Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, edited by: Singh, V. P., 215-232, Water Resources Publications, Colorado, USAV 1995.