Hydrometeorological ensemble simulations of flood events over a small basin of Majorca Island, Spain

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 134, Issue 634 A, 2008, Pages 1221-1242

  Amengual, Arnau ^a   Romeo, R ^a   Alonso, S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITAT DE LES ILLES BALEARS   (Spain)

Author keywords

Ensemble strategy; Floods; Hydrometeorological modelling; Small sized basin

Indexed keywords

ENSEMBLE STRATEGY; FLOOD EVENTS; FLOODS; HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MODELLING; SMALL-SIZED BASIN; ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES; CLOUD MICROPHYSICS; DISCHARGE SIMULATIONS; DRAINAGE AREAS; ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS; EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS; HEC-HMS; HIGH RESOLUTIONS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATIONS; INTENSE PRECIPITATIONS; LAND COVERS; MESOSCALE; MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS; MM5 MODELS; MODELING SYSTEMS; MODELLING STUDIES; MOIST CONVECTIONS; PARAMETRIZATIONS; PENNSYLVANIA; PHYSICAL MODELS; QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS; RUNOFF MODELS; RUNOFF SIMULATIONS; SMALL SIZES; VALIDATION TOOLS;

CATCHMENTS; HYDRAULIC MODELS;

DRAINAGE BASIN; FLOOD; HYDROMETEOROLOGY; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RIVER DISCHARGE; RUNOFF; CLOUD MICROPHYSICS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONVECTIVE SYSTEM; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FLOODING; INFILTRATION; PARAMETERIZATION; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINGAUGE; STREAMFLOW; WEATHER FORECASTING;

BALEARIC ISLANDS; EURASIA; EUROPE; MAJORCA; MEDITERRANEAN SEA; SOUTHERN EUROPE; SPAIN; ALBUFERA LAKE; COMUNIDAD VALENCIA; VALENCIA [COMUNIDAD VALENCIA];

CATCHMENTS; COORDINATION REACTIONS; DISCHARGE (FLUID MECHANICS); FISCHER-TROPSCH SYNTHESIS; LANDFORMS; RUNOFF; SOLUTE TRANSPORT; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 50949101006     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.291     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Amengual A, Romero R, Gómez M, Martín A, Alonso S. 2007. A hydrometeorological modeling study of a flash-flood event over Catalonia, Spain. J. Hydrometeorol. 8: 282-303.
2. Anderson ML, Chen ZQ, Kavvas ML, Feldman A. 2002. Coupling HEC-HMS with atmospheric models for prediction of watershed runoff. J. Hydrol. Eng. 7: 312-318.
3. Antolik MS. 2000. An overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecast. J. Hydrol. 239: 306-337.
4. Bacchi B, Buzzi A, Grossi G, Ranzi R. 2002. 'Flood forecasting in a midsize catchment in the southern Alps: Recent experiences on the use of coupled meteorological and hydrological models'. Pp. 201-208 in Proceedings of the Third EGS Plinius Conference, Baja Sardinia. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche: Rome.
5. Benjamin SG. 1983. Some Effects of Heating and Topography on the Regional Severe Storm Environment. Ph.D. thesis, Pennsylvania State University, 265 pp. (Available from University Microfilm, 300 N. Zeeb. Rd, PO Box 1346, Ann Arbor, MI 46801-1346, USA.)
6. Benjamin SG, Seaman NL. 1985. A simple scheme for improved objective analysis in curved flow. Mon. Weather Rev. 113: 1184-1198.
7. Benoit R, Pellerin P, Kouwen N, Ritchie H, Donaldson N, Joe P, Soulis ED. 2000. Toward the use of coupled atmospheric and hydrologic models at regional scale. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 1681-1706.
8. Blackadar AK. 1979. High resolution models of the planetary boundary layer. Adv. Environ. Sci. Eng. 1: 50-85.
9. Bossard M, Feranec J, Otahel J. 2000. 'CORINE Land Cover Technical Guide - Addendum 2000'. Technical Report 40, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark. 105 pp.
10. Bright DR, Mullen SL. 2002. The sensitivity of the numerical simulation of the southwest monsoon boundary layer to the choice of PBL turbulence parameterization in MM5. Weather and Forecasting 17: 99-114.
11. Chancibault K, Anquetin S, Ducrocq V, Saulnier G-M. 2006. Hydrological evaluation of high-resolution precipitation forecasts of the Gard flash-flood event (8-9 September 2002). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 1091-1117.
12. Chow VT, Maidment DR, Mays LW. 1988. Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill. 572 pp.
13. Clark MP, Hay LE. 2004. Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of stream-flow. J. Hydrometeorol. 5: 243-262.
14. Deidda R. 2000. Rainfall downscaling in a space-time multifractal framework. Water Resour. Res. 36: 1779-1794.
15. Deidda R, Benzi R, Siccardi F. 1999. Multifractal modelling of anomalous scaling laws in rainfall. Water Resour. Res. 35: 1853-1867.
16. Dolciné L, Andrieu H, Sempere-Torres D, Creutin D. 2001. Flash flood forecasting with coupled precipitation model in mountainous mediterranean basin. J. Hydrol. Eng. 6: 1-9.
17. Du J, Mullen SL, Sanders F. 1997. Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation. Mon. Weather Rev. 125: 2427-2459.
18. Dudhia J. 1993. A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Weather Rev. 121: 1493-1513.
19. Epstein ES. 1969. Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus 21: 739-759.
20. Ferraris L, Rudari R, Siccardi F. 2002. The uncertainty in the prediction of flash floods in the Northern Mediterranean environment. J. Hydrometeorol. 3: 714-727.
21. Giannoni F, Smith JA, Zhang Y, Roth G. 2003. Hydrologic modeling of extreme floods using radar rainfall estimates. Adv. Water Resour. 26: 195-203.
22. Grell GA, Dudhia J, Stauffer DR. 1995. 'A description of the fifth- generation of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5)'. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, Boulder, USA.
23. Grimalt M. 1992. Geography of the Risk in Majorca: The Floods. Ph.D. thesis, Institut d'Estudis Baleàrics. Conselleria de Cultura, Educació i Esports. Govern de les Illes Balears. 359 pp. (In Catalan.)
24. Hewitson BC, Crane RG. 1992. Large-scale atmospheric controls on local precipitation in tropical Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19: 1835-1838.
25. Hong S-Y, Pan H-L. 1996. Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Weather Rev. 124: 2322-2339.
26. Jasper K, Kaufmann P. 2003. Coupled runoff simulations as validation tools for atmospheric models at the regional scale. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 673-692.
27. Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. 2003. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. Wiley: Chichester, England. 240 pp.
28. Jones MS, Colle BA, Tongue JS. 2007. Evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecast system over the northeast United States. Weather and Forecasting 22: 36-55.
29. Kain JS. 2004. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43: 170-181.
30. Kain JS, Fritsch KM. 1992. The role of the convective 'trigger function' in numerical forecasts of mesoscale convective systems. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 49: 93-106.
31. Leith CE. 1974. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 102: 409-418.
32. MEDIS. 2006. 'Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean islands: addressing conflicting demands and varing hydrological, social and economic conditions'. Münster, Germany. Final Report, European Project Contract No. EVK1-CT-2001-00092. 285 pp. (Available at http:// www.uni-muenster.de/Umweltforschung/medis/index.html.)
33. Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV. 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I: A discussion of principles. J. Hydrol. 10(3): 282-290.
34. Pessoa LM, Brass RL, Williams ER. 1993. Use of weather radar for flooding forecasting in the Sieve river basin: A sensitivity analysis. J. Appl. Meteorol. 32: 462-475.
35. Ranzi R, Bacchi B, Grossi G. 2003. Runoff measurements and hydrological modelling for the estimation of rainfall volumes in an Alpine Basin. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 653-672.
36. Reisner J, Rasmussen RJ, Bruintjes RT. 1998. Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124B: 1071-1107.
37. Riggs HC. 1976. A simplified slope-area method for estimating flood discharges in channels. J. Res. US Geol. Surv. 4: 285-291.
38. Romero R, Sumner G, Ramis C, Genovés A. 1999. A classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns producing significant daily rainfall in the Spanish Mediterranean area. Int. J. Climatol. 19: 765-785.
39. Romero R, Doswell CA, Ramis C. 2000. Mesoscale numerical study of two cases of long-lived quasistationary convective systems over eastern Spain. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 3731-3751.
40. Siccardi F. 1996. Rainstorm hazards and related disasters in the western Mediterranean region. Rem. Sens. Rev. 14: 5-21.
41. Stensrud DJ, Fritsch JM. 1994a. Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part II: Generation of a mesoscale initial condition. Mon. Weather Rev. 122: 2068-2083.
42. Stensrud DJ, Fritsch JM. 1994b. Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting. Mon. Weather Rev. 122: 2084-2104.
43. Sensrud DJ, Bao, J-W, Warner TT. 2000. Using initial and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective events. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 2077-2107.
44. Tribbia JJ, Baumhefner DP. 1988. The reliability of improvements in deterministic short-range forecasts in presence of initial state and modeling deficiencies. Mon. Weather Rev. 116: 2276-2288.
45. USACE-HEC. 1998. 'HEC-HMS Hydrologic Modeling System user's manual'. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California, USA. 188 pp.
46. USACE-HEC. 2000. 'Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS: Technical reference manual'. US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California, USA. 157 pp.
47. USDA. 1986. 'Urban hydrology for small watersheds'. Technical release 55 of the Nature Resources Conservation Service. US Department of Agriculture. Washington DC, USA. 164 pp.
48. Von Storch H, Zwiers FW. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press. 494 pp.
49. Wang W, Seaman NL. 1997. A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in a mesoscale model. Mon. Weather Rev. 125: 252-278.
50. Wilks D. 1999. Multisite downscaling of daily rainfall with a stochastic weather generator. Climate Res. 11: 125-136.
51. Wilks DS. 2006. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, second edition. Elsiever. 627 pp.
52. Williams GP. 1978. Bankfull discharge of rivers. Water Resour. Res. 14(6): 1141-1154.
53. Zhang DL, Anthes RA. 1982. A high resolution model of the planetary boundary layer: Sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data. J. Appl. Meteorol. 21: 1594-1609.
54. Zhang DL, Fritsch JM. 1986. Numerical simulation of the meso-β scale structure and evolution of the 1977 Johnstown flood. Part I: Model description and verification. J. Atmos. Sci. 43: 1913-1943.
55. Zhang Y, Smith JA. 2003. Space-time variability of rainfall and extreme flood response in the Menomonee river basin, Wisconsin. J. Hydrometeorol. 4: 506-517.
56. Zhang DL, Zheng WZ. 2004. Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary layer parameterizations. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43: 157-169.