Increased or Reversed? The Effect of Surprise on Hindsight Bias Depends on the Hindsight Component

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory and Cognition

Volumn 35, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 1539-1544

  Nestler, Steffen ^a   Egloff, Boris ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEIPZIG   (Germany)

Author keywords

foreseeability; hindsight bias; hindsight components; inevitability; surprise

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR; ARTICLE; DECISION MAKING; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HUMAN; METHODOLOGY; PHOTOSTIMULATION; PHYSIOLOGY; PREDICTION AND FORECASTING; PSYCHOLOGICAL MODEL; RECALL; VISION; VISUAL ILLUSION;

ADAPTATION, PSYCHOLOGICAL; BIAS (EPIDEMIOLOGY); HUMANS; JUDGMENT; MENTAL RECALL; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; OPTICAL ILLUSIONS; PHOTIC STIMULATION; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; VISUAL PERCEPTION;

EID: 71649084945     PISSN: 02787393     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0017006     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Blank H., and Nestler S. Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. British Journal of Social Psychology 45 (2006) 149-160
2. Blank H., and Nestler S. Cognitive process models of hindsight bias. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 132-146
3. Blank H., Nestler S., von Collani G., and Fischer V. How many hindsight biases are there?. Cognition 106 (2008) 1408-1440
4. Cannon C.K., and Quinsey V.L. The likelihood of violent behavior: Predictions, postdictions, and hindsight bias. Canadian Journal of Behavioral Science 27 (1995) 92-106
5. Guerin B. Salience and hindsight biases in judgments of world events. Psychological Reports 50 (1982) 411-414
6. Hawkins S.A., and Hastie R. Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin 107 (1990) 311-327
7. Hoch S.J., and Löwenstein G.F. Outcome feedback: Hindsight and information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 15 (1989) 605-619
8. Hoffrage U., and Pohl R.F. Research on hindsight bias: A rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future. Memory 11 (2003) 329-335
9. Mazursky D., and Ofir C. "I could never have expected it to happen": The reversal of the hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 46 (1990) 20-33
10. Müller P., and Stahlberg D. The role of surprise in hindsight bias: A metacognitive model of reduced and reversed hindsight bias. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 165-184
11. Nestler S., Blank H., and von Collani G. Hindsight bias and causal attribution: A causal model theory of creeping determinism. Social Psychology 39 (2008) 182-188
12. Nestler S., Blank H., and von Collani G. Hindsight bias doesn't always come easy: Causal models, cognitive effort and creeping determinism. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 34 (2008) 1043-1054
13. Nestler S., and von Collani G. Hindsight bias and the activation of counterfactual mind-sets. Experimental Psychology 55 (2008) 342-349
14. Nestler S., and von Collani G. Hindsight bias, conjunctive explanations and causal attribution. Social Cognition 26 (2008) 482-493
15. Niepel M. Independent manipulation of stimulus change and unexpectedness dissociates indices of the orienting response. Psychophysiology 38 (2001) 84-91
16. Ofir C., and Mazursky D. Does a surprising outcome reinforce or reverse the hindsight bias?. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 69 (1997) 51-57
17. Pezzo M.V. Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes the hindsight bias?. Memory 11 (2003) 421-441
18. Pezzo M.V., and Pezzo S.P. Making sense of failure: A motivated model of hindsight bias. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 147-164
19. Reimers J.L., and Butler S.A. The effect of outcome knowledge on auditors' judgemental evaluations. Accounting, Organizations, and Society 17 (1996) 185-194
20. Reisenzein R. Exploring the strength of association between the components of emotion syndromes: The case of surprise. Cognition & Emotion 14 (2000) 1-38
21. Reisenzein R., Bördgen S., Holtbernd T., and Matz D. Evidence for strong dissociation between emotion and facial displays. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 91 (2006) 295-315
22. Roese N.J., and Maniar S.D. Perceptions of purple: Counterfactual and hindsight judgments at Northwestern Wildcats football games. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 23 (1997) 1245-1253
23. Roese N.J., and Olson J.M. Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 32 (1996) 197-227
24. Schkade D.A., and Kilbourne L.M. Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 49 (1991) 105-123
25. Slovic P., and Fischhoff B. On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 3 (1977) 544-551
26. Verplanken B., and Pieters R.G.M. Individual differences in reverse of hindsight bias: I never thought something like Chernobyl would happen. Did I?. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 1 (1988) 131-147
27. Weiner B. Spontaneous causal thinking. Psychological Bulletin 97 (1985) 74-84