Cognitive process models of hindsight bias

Social Cognition

Volumn 25, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 132-146

  Blank, Hartmut ^a   Nestler, Steffen ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PORTSMOUTH   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LEIPZIG   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 35548969220     PISSN: 0278016X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.132     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Agans, R.P., & Shaffer, L.S. (1994). The hindsight bias: The role of the availability heuristic and perceived, risk. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 15, 439-449.
2. Arkes, H. R., Faust, D., Guilmette, T. J., & Hart, K. (1988). Eliminating the hindsight bias. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73, 305-307.
3. Blank, H., Fischer, V., & Erdfelder, E. (2003). Hindsight bias in political elections. Memory, 11, 491-504.
4. Blank, H., & Nestler, S. (2006). Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. British Journal of Social Psychology, 45, 149-160.
5. Blank, H., von Collani, G., Fischer, V., & Nestler, S. (2006). How many hindsight biases are there? Manuscript submitted for publication, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK.
6. Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 147-168.
7. Erdfelder, E., & Buchner, A. (1998). Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hind-sight. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24, 387-414.
8. Fazio, R. H. (1990). Multiple processes by which attitudes guide behavior: The MODE model as an integrative framework. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 23, pp. 75-109). San Diego: Academic.
9. Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-299.
10. Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
11. Guilbault, R. L., Bryant, F. B., Brockway, J. H., & Posavac, E. J. (2004). A meta-analysis of research on hindsight bias. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 26, 103-117.
12. Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 311-327.
13. Hertwig, R., Fanselow, C., & Hoffrage, U. (2003). Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past. Memory, 11, 357-377.
14. Hoffrage, U., Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Hindsight bias: A byproduct of knowledge updating? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 566-581.
15. Hoffrage, U., & Pohl, R. (2003). Research on hindsight bias: A rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future. Memory, 11, 329-335.
16. Klayman, J., & Ha, Y. -W. (1987). Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psychological Review, 94, 211-228.
17. Loftus, E. F. (1991). Made in memory: Distortions in recollection after misleading information. In G. H. Bower (Eds.), The psychology of learning and motivation (Vol. 25, S. 187-215). New York: Academic Press.
18. Louie, T. A. (1999). Decision makers' hindsight bias after receiving favourable and unfavorable feedback. Journal of Applied Psychology, 84, 29-41.
19. Mark, M.M., & Mellor, S. (1991). Effect of self-relevance of an event on hindsight bias: The foreseeability of a layoff. Journal of Applied Psychology, 76, 569-577.
20. McCloskey, M., & Zaragoza, M. (1985). Misleading postevent information and memory for events: Arguments and evidence against memory impairment hypotheses. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 114, 1-16.
21. McGeoch, J. A. (1932). Forgetting and the law of disuse. Psychological Review, 39, 352-370.
22. Melton, A. W., & Irwin, J. M. (1940). The influence of degree of interpolated learning on retroactive inhibition and the overt transfer of specific responses. American Journal of Psychology, 53, 173-203.
23. Müller, P. A., & Stahlberg, D. (2007). The role of surprise in hindsight bias: A metacognitive model of reduced and reversed hindsight bias. Social Cognition, 25(1), 165-184.
24. Nario, M.R., & Branscombe, N.R. (1995). Comparison processes in hindsight and causal attributions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 1244-1255.
25. Nestler, S. (2007). Creeping determinism and causal models: About the influence of processing load on the magnitude of the hindsight bias. Doctoral dissertation, University of Leipzig.
26. Nestler, S., Blank, H., & von Collani, G. (2006). Creeping determinism and processing load. Manuscript submitted for publication, University of Leipzig.
27. Ofir, C., & Mazursky, D. (1997). Does a surprising outcome reinforce or reverse the hindsight bias? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 51-57.
28. Pezzo, M. (2003). Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes the hindsight bias? Memory, 11(4/5), 421-441.
29. Pohl, R. F., Hardt, O., & Eisenhauer, M. (2000). SARA: Ein kognitives Prozessmodell zur Erklärung von Ankereffekt und Rückschaufehler [SARA: A cognitive process model explaining the anchoring effect and hindsight bias]. Kognitionswissenschaft, 9, 77-92.
30. Pohl, R. F., & Hell, W. (1996). No reduction in hindsight bias after complete information and repeated testing. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 49-58.
31. Pohl, R. F. (2007). Ways to assess hindsight bias. Social Cognition, 25(1), 14-31.
32. Pohl, R. F., Eisenhauer, M., & Hardt, O. (2003). SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias. Memory, 11, 337-356.
33. Raaijmakers, J. G. W., & Shiffrin, R. M. (1981). Search of associative memory. Psychological Review, 88, 93-134.
34. Roediger, H. L., Ill, & McDermott, K. B. (1995). Creating false memories: Remembering words not presented in lists. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 21, 803-814.
35. Roese, N.J., & Olson, J. M. (1996). Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 32, 197-227.
36. Sanna, L. J., & Schwarz, N. (2007). Metacognitive experiences and hindsight bias: It's not just the thought (content) that counts. Social Cognition, 24(1), 185-202.
37. Schkade, D. A., & Kilbourne, L. M. (1991). Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 105-123.
38. Slovic, P., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.
39. Smith, E.R., & DeCoster, J. (2000). Dual process models in social and cognitive psychology: Conceptual integration and links to underlying memory systems. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 4, 108-131.
40. Strack, F., & Deutsch, R. (2004). Reflective and impulsive determinants of social behavior. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 8, 220-247.
41. Tykocinski, O. (2001). I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointment. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27, 376-382.
42. Wasserman, D., Lempert, R.O., & Hastie, R. (1991). Hindsight and causality. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 17, 30-35.
43. Wilson, T. D., Lindsey, S., & Schooler, T. Y. (2000). A model of dual attitudes. Psychological Review, 107, 101-126.