메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 11, Issue 4-5, 2003, Pages 421-441

Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; DECISION MAKING; DEFENSE MECHANISM; FEEDBACK SYSTEM; HUMAN; HUMAN EXPERIMENT; INFORMATION PROCESSING; MEDICAL RESEARCH; MEMORY; MOTIVATION; NORMAL HUMAN; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SCORING SYSTEM; SELF ESTEEM; THEORETICAL MODEL;

EID: 0041989691     PISSN: 09658211     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09658210244000603     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (106)

References (57)
  • 2
    • 21844495495 scopus 로고
    • A posteriori revision of a priori decision criteria
    • Alicke, M.D., Davis, T.L., & Pezzo, M.V. (1994). A posteriori revision of a priori decision criteria. Social Cognition, 12, 281-308.
    • (1994) Social Cognition , vol.12 , pp. 281-308
    • Alicke, M.D.1    Davis, T.L.2    Pezzo, M.V.3
  • 3
    • 0011667423 scopus 로고
    • Commentary on the article by Verplanken & Pieters
    • Arkes, H.R. (1988). Commentary on the article by Verplanken & Pieters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, 146.
    • (1988) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.1 , pp. 146
    • Arkes, H.R.1
  • 5
    • 38249013926 scopus 로고
    • Coming to terms with failure: Private self-enhancement and public self-effacement
    • Brown, J.D., & Gallagher, F.H. (1992). Coming to terms with failure: Private self-enhancement and public self-effacement. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 28, 3-22.
    • (1992) Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , vol.28 , pp. 3-22
    • Brown, J.D.1    Gallagher, F.H.2
  • 6
    • 21844507301 scopus 로고
    • The likelihood of violent behaviour: Predictions, postdictions, and hindsight bias
    • Cannon, C.K., & Quinsey, V.L. (1995). The likelihood of violent behaviour: Predictions, postdictions, and hindsight bias. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science, 27, 92-106.
    • (1995) Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science , vol.27 , pp. 92-106
    • Cannon, C.K.1    Quinsey, V.L.2
  • 7
    • 0034571770 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cultural psychology of surprise: Holistic theories and recognition of contradiction
    • Choi, I., & Nisbett, R.E. (2000). Cultural psychology of surprise: Holistic theories and recognition of contradiction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 890-905.
    • (2000) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.79 , pp. 890-905
    • Choi, I.1    Nisbett, R.E.2
  • 10
    • 38249033129 scopus 로고
    • Reduction of hindsight bias by restoration of foresight perspective
    • Davies, M.F. (1987). Reduction of hindsight bias by restoration of foresight perspective. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 40, 50-68.
    • (1987) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.40 , pp. 50-68
    • Davies, M.F.1
  • 11
    • 0000836970 scopus 로고
    • Judgment of coincidences: Mine versus yours
    • Falk, R. (1989). Judgment of coincidences: Mine versus yours. American Journal of Psychology, 102, 477-493.
    • (1989) American Journal of Psychology , vol.102 , pp. 477-493
    • Falk, R.1
  • 15
    • 24644457828 scopus 로고
    • The dimensionality of self-esteem: II. Hierarchical facet model for revised measurement scales
    • Fleming, J.S., & Courtney, B.E. (1984). The dimensionality of self-esteem: II. Hierarchical facet model for revised measurement scales. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 404-421.
    • (1984) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.46 , pp. 404-421
    • Fleming, J.S.1    Courtney, B.E.2
  • 16
    • 0042485876 scopus 로고
    • Salience and hindsight biases in judgements of world events
    • Guerin, B. (1982). Salience and hindsight biases in judgements of world events. Psychological Reports, 50, 411-414.
    • (1982) Psychological Reports , vol.50 , pp. 411-414
    • Guerin, B.1
  • 19
    • 11944269217 scopus 로고
    • Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known
    • Hawkins, S., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 167, 311-327.
    • (1990) Psychological Bulletin , vol.167 , pp. 311-327
    • Hawkins, S.1    Hastie, R.2
  • 21
    • 85047686089 scopus 로고
    • Attributions in the sports pages: A field test of current hypotheses in attribution research
    • Lau, R.R., & Russell, D. (1980). Attributions in the sports pages: A field test of current hypotheses in attribution research. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 29-38.
    • (1980) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.39 , pp. 29-38
    • Lau, R.R.1    Russell, D.2
  • 22
    • 84925973759 scopus 로고
    • The distorted nature of hindsight
    • Leary, M. R. (1981). The distorted nature of hindsight. Journal of Social Psychology, 115, 25-29.
    • (1981) Journal of Social Psychology , vol.115 , pp. 25-29
    • Leary, M.R.1
  • 23
    • 0033241293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision makers' hindsight bias after receiving favorable and unfavorable feedback
    • Louie, T.A. (1999). Decision makers' hindsight bias after receiving favorable and unfavorable feedback. Journal of Applied Psychology, 84, 29-41.
    • (1999) Journal of Applied Psychology , vol.84 , pp. 29-41
    • Louie, T.A.1
  • 24
    • 0034164673 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "I knew we would win": Hindsight bias for favorable and unfavorable team decision outcomes
    • Louie, T.A., Curren, M.T., & Harich, K.R. (2000). "I knew we would win": Hindsight bias for favorable and unfavorable team decision outcomes. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85, 264-272.
    • (2000) Journal of Applied Psychology , vol.85 , pp. 264-272
    • Louie, T.A.1    Curren, M.T.2    Harich, K.R.3
  • 25
    • 0000901411 scopus 로고
    • Effect of self-relevance of an event on hindsight bias: The foreseeability of a layoff
    • Mark, M.M., & Mellor, S. (1991). Effect of self-relevance of an event on hindsight bias: The foreseeability of a layoff. Journal of Applied Psychology, 76, 569-577.
    • (1991) Journal of Applied Psychology , vol.76 , pp. 569-577
    • Mark, M.M.1    Mellor, S.2
  • 26
    • 38149145256 scopus 로고
    • "We don't expect it happened": On Mazursky and Ofir's (1990) purported reversal of the hindsight bias
    • Mark, M.M., & Mellor, S. (1994). "We don't expect it happened": On Mazursky and Ofir's (1990) purported reversal of the hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 247-252.
    • (1994) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.57 , pp. 247-252
    • Mark, M.M.1    Mellor, S.2
  • 27
    • 0042490593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "I couldn't have seen it coming": The impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about forseeability
    • Mark, M.M., Boburka, R. R., Eyssell, K.M., Cohen, L.L., & Mellor, S. (2003). "I couldn't have seen it coming": The impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about forseeability. Memory, 11, 443-454.
    • (2003) Memory , vol.11 , pp. 443-454
    • Mark, M.M.1    Boburka, R.R.2    Eyssell, K.M.3    Cohen, L.L.4    Mellor, S.5
  • 28
    • 0347744236 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "I couldn't have known": Accountability, foreseeability and counterfactual denials of responsibility
    • Markman, K.D., & Tetlock, P.E. (2000). "I couldn't have known": Accountability, foreseeability and counterfactual denials of responsibility. British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 313-325.
    • (2000) British Journal of Social Psychology , vol.39 , pp. 313-325
    • Markman, K.D.1    Tetlock, P.E.2
  • 29
    • 38249020566 scopus 로고
    • I could never have expected it to happen: The reversal of the hindsight bias
    • Mazursky, D., & Ofir, C. (1990). I could never have expected it to happen: The reversal of the hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46, 20-33.
    • (1990) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.46 , pp. 20-33
    • Mazursky, D.1    Ofir, C.2
  • 30
    • 0030137734 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "I knew it all along" under all conditions? Or possibly "I could not have expected it to happen" under some conditions
    • Mazursky, D., & Ofir, C. (1996). "I knew it all along" under all conditions? Or possibly "I could not have expected it to happen" under some conditions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 66, 237-240.
    • (1996) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.66 , pp. 237-240
    • Mazursky, D.1    Ofir, C.2
  • 31
    • 0034237915 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observers' reactions to genetic testing: The role of hindsight bias and judgments of responsibility
    • Menec, V.H., & Weiner, B. (2000). Observers' reactions to genetic testing: The role of hindsight bias and judgments of responsibility. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 30, 1670-1690.
    • (2000) Journal of Applied Social Psychology , vol.30 , pp. 1670-1690
    • Menec, V.H.1    Weiner, B.2
  • 35
    • 0042485676 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Removing the hindsight bias: A test of the motivated processing hypothesis
    • (Ohio University, 1996)
    • Pezzo, M.V. (1996). Removing the hindsight bias: A test of the motivated processing hypothesis. (Ohio University, 1996). Dissertation Abstracts International, 57, 6606.
    • (1996) Dissertation Abstracts International , vol.57 , pp. 6606
    • Pezzo, M.V.1
  • 36
    • 0008807651 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of feedback source and plausibility of hindsight bias
    • Pohl, R.F. (1998). The effects of feedback source and plausibility of hindsight bias. European Journal of Cognitive Psychology, 10, 191-212.
    • (1998) European Journal of Cognitive Psychology , vol.10 , pp. 191-212
    • Pohl, R.F.1
  • 37
    • 0002319834 scopus 로고
    • Role of disconfirmed expectations in the instigation of attributional processing
    • Pyszczynski, T.A., & Greenberg, J. (1981). Role of disconfirmed expectations in the instigation of attributional processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40, 31-38.
    • (1981) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.40 , pp. 31-38
    • Pyszczynski, T.A.1    Greenberg, J.2
  • 39
    • 0042991332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hindsight bias after receiving self-relevant health risk information: A motivation perspective
    • Renner, B. (2003). Hindsight bias after receiving self-relevant health risk information: A motivation perspective. Memory, 11, 455-472.
    • (2003) Memory , vol.11 , pp. 455-472
    • Renner, B.1
  • 40
    • 0031511966 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Perceptions of purple: Counterfactual and hindsight judgments at Northwestern Wildcats football games
    • Roese, N.J., & Maniar, S.D. (1997). Perceptions of purple: Counterfactual and hindsight judgments at Northwestern Wildcats football games. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 1245-1253.
    • (1997) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.23 , pp. 1245-1253
    • Roese, N.J.1    Maniar, S.D.2
  • 41
    • 16144366429 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and hindsight bias: A conceptual integration
    • Roese, N.J., & Olson, J.M. (1996). Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and hindsight bias: A conceptual integration. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 32, 197-227.
    • (1996) Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , vol.32 , pp. 197-227
    • Roese, N.J.1    Olson, J.M.2
  • 43
    • 0030303913 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Antecedents to spontaneous counterfactual thinking: Effects of expectancy violation and outcome valence
    • Sanna, L.J., & Turley, K.J. (1996). Antecedents to spontaneous counterfactual thinking: Effects of expectancy violation and outcome valence. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 22, 906-919.
    • (1996) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.22 , pp. 906-919
    • Sanna, L.J.1    Turley, K.J.2
  • 45
    • 22044448814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accessible content and accessibility experiences: The interplay of declarative and experiential information in judgment
    • Schwarz, N. (1998). Accessible content and accessibility experiences: The interplay of declarative and experiential information in judgment. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 2, 87-99.
    • (1998) Personality and Social Psychology Review , vol.2 , pp. 87-99
    • Schwarz, N.1
  • 46
    • 0000151027 scopus 로고
    • Imagining can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a disease: The mediating effect of ease of imagery
    • Sherman, S.J., Cialdini, R.B., Schwartzman, D.F., & Reynolds, K.D. (1985). Imagining can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a disease: The mediating effect of ease of imagery. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 11, 118-127.
    • (1985) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.11 , pp. 118-127
    • Sherman, S.J.1    Cialdini, R.B.2    Schwartzman, D.F.3    Reynolds, K.D.4
  • 48
    • 0024040336 scopus 로고
    • Excuses: Their effective role in the negotiation of reality
    • Snyder, C.R., & Higgins, R.L. (1988). Excuses: Their effective role in the negotiation of reality. Psychological Bulletin, 104, 23-35.
    • (1988) Psychological Bulletin , vol.104 , pp. 23-35
    • Snyder, C.R.1    Higgins, R.L.2
  • 49
    • 21944431790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Outcome effects: The impact of decision process and outcome controllability
    • Tan, H.-T., & Lipe, M.G. (1997). Outcome effects: The impact of decision process and outcome controllability. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 315-325.
    • (1997) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.10 , pp. 315-325
    • Tan, H.-T.1    Lipe, M.G.2
  • 50
    • 0023968228 scopus 로고
    • Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health
    • Taylor, S.E., & Brown, J.D. (1988). Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. Psychological Bulletin, 103, 193-210.
    • (1988) Psychological Bulletin , vol.103 , pp. 193-210
    • Taylor, S.E.1    Brown, J.D.2
  • 51
    • 0035530303 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointments
    • Tykocinski, O.E. (2001). I never had a chance: Using hindsight tactics to mitigate disappointments. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27, 376-382.
    • (2001) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.27 , pp. 376-382
    • Tykocinski, O.E.1
  • 52
    • 84988119834 scopus 로고
    • Individual differences in reverse hindsight bias: I never thought something like Chernobyl would happen. Did I?
    • Verplanken, B., & Pieters, R.G.M. (1988). Individual differences in reverse hindsight bias: I never thought something like Chernobyl would happen. Did I? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, 137-147.
    • (1988) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.1 , pp. 137-147
    • Verplanken, B.1    Pieters, R.G.M.2
  • 54
    • 0002114725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When the antidote is the poison: Ironic mental control processes
    • Wegner, D.M. (1997). When the antidote is the poison: Ironic mental control processes. Psychological Science, 8, 148-150.
    • (1997) Psychological Science , vol.8 , pp. 148-150
    • Wegner, D.M.1
  • 55
    • 0021909091 scopus 로고
    • "Spontaneous" causal thinking
    • Weiner, B. (1985). "Spontaneous" causal thinking. Psychological Bulletin, 97, 74-84.
    • (1985) Psychological Bulletin , vol.97 , pp. 74-84
    • Weiner, B.1
  • 56
    • 0039764429 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The importance of item selection in "knew-it-all-along" studies of general knowledge
    • Winman, A. (1997). The importance of item selection in "knew-it-all-along" studies of general knowledge. Scandanavian Journal of Psychology, 38, 63-72.
    • (1997) Scandanavian Journal of Psychology , vol.38 , pp. 63-72
    • Winman, A.1
  • 57
    • 0000975509 scopus 로고
    • The influence of perceived event's controllability on its subjective occurrence probability
    • Zakay, D. (1984). The influence of perceived event's controllability on its subjective occurrence probability. Psychological Record, 34, 233-240.
    • (1984) Psychological Record , vol.34 , pp. 233-240
    • Zakay, D.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.