The effects and side-effects of statistics education: Psychology students' (mis-)conceptions of probability

Contemporary Educational Psychology

Volumn 34, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 210-220

  Morsanyi, Kinga ^a   Primi, Caterina ^b   Chiesi, Francesca ^b   Handley, Simon ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE   (Italy)

Author keywords

Dual process theories; Equiprobability bias; Heuristics and biases; Individual differences; Instruction manipulation; Probabilistic reasoning; Representativeness heuristic; Statistics education

Indexed keywords

EID: 70149109793     PISSN: 0361476X     EISSN: 10902384     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.cedpsych.2009.05.001     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Arthur Jr. W., and Day D.V. Development of a short form for the Raven advanced progressive matrices test. Educational and Psychological Measurement 54 (1994) 394-403
2. Batanero, C., Serrano. L., Garfield, J. B. (1996). Heuristics and biases in secondary school students' reasoning about probability. In L. Puig & A. Gutiérrez (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th conference on the international group for the psychology of mathematics education (Vol. 2, pp. 51-59). University of Valencia.
3. Borovcnik M., and Bentz H.-J. Empirical research in understanding probability. In: Kapadia R., and Borovcnik M. (Eds). Chance encounters: Probability in education (1991), Kluwer, Dordrecht 73-105
4. Borovcnik M., and Peard R. Probability. In: Kilpatrick J. (Ed). International handbook of mathematics education (1996), Kluwer, Dordrecht 371-401
5. Cacioppo T.J., and Petty I.L.E. The need for cognition. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 42 (1982) 116-131
6. Cacioppo J.T., Petty R.E., Feinstein J.A., and Jarvis W.B.G. Dispositional differences in cognitive motivation: The life and times of individuals varying in need for cognition. Psychological Bulletin 119 (1996) 197-253
7. Callaert, H. (2004). In search of the specificity and the identifiability of stochastic thinking and reasoning. In M. A. Mariotti (Ed.), Proceedings of the third conference of the European society for research in mathematics education. Pisa: Pisa University Press.
8. Chiesi, F., Primi, C. (2008). Le proprietà psicometriche della versione italiana sella need for cognition scale - short form. Congresso Nazionale Sezione di Psicologia Sperimentale, Padova, 18-20 Settembre.
9. Denes-Raj V., and Epstein S. Conflict between intuitive and rational processing: When people behave against their better judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 66 (1994) 819-829
10. Epstein S., Lipson A., Holstein C., and Huh E. Irrational reactions to negative outcomes: Evidence for two conceptual systems. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 62 (1992) 328-339
11. Evans, J. St. B. T. (2006). Dual system theories of cognition: Some issues. In Proceedings of the 28th annual conference of the cognitive science society. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
12. Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. J., Neilens, H., Bacon, A., Over, D. E. (under review). The influence of cognitive ability and instructional set on causal conditional inference.
13. Evans J.St.B.T., and Over D.E. Rationality and reasoning (1996), Psychology Press, Hove
14. Ferreira M.B., Garcia-Marques L., Sherman S.J., and Sherman J.W. Automatic and controlled components of judgment and decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 91 (2006) 797-813
15. Fischbein E. The intuitive sources of probabilistic thinking in children (1975), Reidel, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
16. Fischbein E. Intuition in science and mathematics (1987), Reidel, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
17. Fischbein E., and Schnarch D. The evolution with age of probabilistic intuitively based misconceptions. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education 28 (1997) 96-105
18. Fong G.T., Krantz D.H., and Nisbett R.E. The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems. Cognitive Psychology 18 (1986) 253-292
19. Gigerenzer G., Todd P.M., and The ABC research group. Simple heuristics that make us smart (1999), Oxford University Press, USA
20. In: Gilovich T., Griffin D., and Kahneman D. (Eds). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (2002), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
21. Handley S., Capon A., Beveridge M., Dennis I., and Evans J.St.B.T. Working memory, inhibitory control and the development of children's reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning 10 (2004) 175-195
22. Heller R.F., Salzstein H.D., and Caspe W.B. Heuristics in medical and non-medical decision-making. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 44 (1992) 211-235
23. Johnson-Laird P.N., Legrenzi P., Girotto P., Legrenzi M.S., and Caverni J.-P. Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review 106 (1999) 62-88
24. Kahneman D., and Frederick S. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. In: Gilovich T., Griffin D., and Kahneman D. (Eds). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (2002), Cambridge University Press, New York 49-81
25. In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
26. Klaczynski P. Framing effects on adolescent task representations, analytic and heuristic processing, and decision making implications for the normative/descriptive gap. Applied Developmental Psychology 22 (2001) 289-309
27. Kokis J., Macpherson R., Toplak M.E., West R.F., and Stanovich K.E. Heuristic and analytic processing: Age trends and associations with cognitive ability and cognitive styles. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology 83 (2002) 26-52
28. Lecoutre M.P. Effect d'informations de nature combinatoire et de nature fréquentielle sur les judgements probabilistes. Recherches en Didactique des Mathématiques 6 (1985) 193-213
29. Lehman D.R., Lempert R.O., and Nisbett R.E. The effects of graduate training on reasoning: Formal discipline and thinking about everyday-life events. American Psychologist 43 (1988) 431-442
30. Leone C., and Dalton C. Some effects of the need for cognition on course grades. Perceptual and Motor Skills 67 (1988) 175-178
31. Metz K.E. Emergent understanding and attribution of randomness: Comparative analysis of the reasoning of primary grade children and undergraduates. Cognition and Instruction 16 (1998) 285-365
32. Morsanyi K., and Handley S.J. How smart do you need to be to get it wrong? The role of cognitive capacity in the development of heuristic-based judgment. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology 99 (2008) 18-36
33. Pratt D. Making sense of the total of two dice. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education 31 (2000) 602-625
34. Raven J.C. Progressive matrices: A perceptual test of intelligence (1938), H. K. Lewis, London
35. In: Rust J., and Golombok S. (Eds). Modern psychometrics: The science of psychological assessment. 2nd ed. (1999), Routledge, New York
36. Sadowski C.J., and Gulgoz S. Elaborative processing mediates the relationship between the need for cognition and academic performance. Journal of Psychology 130 (1996) 303-308
37. Stanovich K.E. Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning (1999), Lawrence Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ
38. Stanovich K.E. Distinguishing the reflective, algorithmic and autonomous minds: Is it time for a tri-process theory?. In: Frankish K., and Evans J. (Eds). Two minds. Dual-precesses and beyond (2008), Oxford University Press, Oxford
39. Stanovich K.E., and West R.F. Discrepancies between normative and descriptive models of decision making and the understanding/acceptance principle. Cognitive Psychology 38 (1999) 349-385
40. Stanovich K.E., and West R.F. On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 94 (2008) 672-695
41. Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Psychological Review 90 (1983) 293-315