An evolving seasonal forecasting system using bayes’ theorem

Atmosphere - Ocean

Volumn 43, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 129-143

  Boer, G J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING METHOD; PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY;

EID: 22144447492     PISSN: 07055900     EISSN: 14809214     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3137/ao.430202     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Barnston, A.G., Van Den Dool, H.M., Rodenhuis, D.R., Ropelewski, Chester, R., Kousky, Vernon E., O'Lenic, Edward A., Livezey, R.E., Zebiak, S.E., Cane, M.A., Barnett, T.P., Graham, N.E., Ji, M., and Leetmaa, A., 1994. Long-lead seasonal forecasts - where do we stand?. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 75:2097–2114.
2. Boer, G.J., 1993. Systematic and random error in an extended-range forecasting experiment. Mon. Weather Rev., 121:173–188.
3. Boer, G.J., Flato, G., Reader, M.C., and Ramsden, D., 2000a. A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing:experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century. Clim. Dyn., 16:405–425.
4. Boer, G.J., Flato, G., and Ramsden, D., 2000b. A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing:projected climate for the 21st century. Clim. Dyn., 16:427–450.
5. Coelho, C., Pezzulli, S., Balmaseda, M., Doblas-Reyes, F., and Stephenson, D., 2004. Forecast calibration and combination:a simple Bayesian approach for ENSO. J. Clim., 17:1504–1516.
6. Derome, J., Brunet, G., Plante, A., Gagnon, N., Boer, G.J., Zwiers, F., Lambert, S., Sheng, J., and Ritchie, H., 2001. Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models. Atmosphere-Ocean, 39:485–501.
7. Flato, G.M., Boer, G.J., Lee, W., McFarlane, N., Ramsden, D., and Weaver, A., 2000. The CCCma global coupled model and its climate. Clim. Dyn., 16:451–467.
8. Boer, G.J. and Boer, G.J. 2001. Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28:195–198.
9. Goddard, L., Mason, S., Zebiak, S., Ropelewski, C., Basher, R., and Cane, M., 2001. Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Clim., 21:1111–1152.
10. Boer, G.J. and Boer, G.J. 2002. Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Clim. Dyn., 19:619–631.
11. Jolliffe, I., and Stephenson, D., eds. 2003. Forecast Verification, a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science., 240John Wiley and Sons.
12. JMA. 1991. Marine Department Report, Tokyo:Japan Meteorological Agency.
13. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, B., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, Roy, and Joseph, Dennis. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 11:437–472.
14. Kharin, V. V., and Zwiers, F., 2003. Improved seasonal probability forecasts. J. Clim., 16:1684–1701.
15. Mason, S., and Mimmack, G., 2002. Comparison of some statistical methods of probabilistic forecasting of ENSO. J. Clim., 15:8–29.
16. McFarlane, N., Boer, G.J., Blanchet, J.-P., and Lazare, M., 1992. The Canadian Climate Centre second-generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate. J. Clim., 5:1013–1044.
17. Pan, J., and van den Dool, H., 1998. Extended-range probability forecasts based on dynamical model output. Weather Forecast., 13:983–996.
18. Pavan, V., and Doblas-Reyes, F., 2000. Multi-model seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic:Skill scores and dynamic features. Clim. Dyn., 16:61–625.
19. Rajagopalan, B., Lall, U., and Zebiak, S., 2002. Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles. Mon. Weather Rev., 130:1792–1811.
20. Ritchie, H., 1991. Application of the semi-Lagrangian method to a multilevel spectral primitive-equations model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 117:91–106.
21. Boer, G.J. and Beaudoin, C., 1994. Approximations and sensitivity experiments with a baroclinic semi-Lagrangian spectral model. Mon. Weather Rev., 122:2391–2399.
22. Stockdale, T., Anderson, D., Alves, J., and Balmaseda, M., 1998. Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature, 392:370–373.
23. van den Dool, H., and Toth, Z., 1991. Why do forecasts for “Near Normal” Often Fail?. Weather Forecast., 6:76–85.
24. Wolter, K., 1987. The Southern Oscillation in surface circulation and climate over the tropical Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and Indian Oceans as captured by cluster analysis. J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 26:540–558.