Managing functional biases in organizational forecasts: A case study of consensus forecasting in supply chain planning

Production and Operations Management

Volumn 18, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 138-151

  Oliva, Rogelio ^a,b   Watson, Noel ^c  

^a TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Zaragoza Logistics Center   (Spain)

^c HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL   (United States)

Author keywords

Case field study; Forecasting; Marketing operations interface; Organizational issues; Sales and operations planning

Indexed keywords

EID: 67549088045     PISSN: 10591478     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1937-5956.2009.01003.x     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Ang, S., M. J. O'Connor. 1991. The effect of group-interaction processes on performance in time-series extrapolation. Int. J. Forecast. 7(2): 141-149.
2. Antle, R., G. D. Eppen. 1985. Capital rationing and organizational slack in capital-budgeting. Manage. Sci. 31 (2): 163-174.
3. Armstrong, J. S. (ed.) 2001a. Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston.
4. Armstrong, J. S. 2001b. Combining forecasts. Armstrong, J. S. (ed.) Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Boston
5. Barley, S. 1986. Technology as an occasion for structuring: evidence from observations of CT scanners and the social order of radiology departments. Admin. Sci. Q. 31: 78-108. (Pubitemid 16093771)
6. Beach, L. R., V. E. Barnes, J. J. J. Christensen-Szalanski. 1986. Beyond heuristics and biases: a contingency model of judgmental forecasting. J. Forecast. 5: 143-157.
7. Bower, P. 2005. 12 most common threats to sales and operations planning process. J. Business Forecast. Methods Syst. 24 (3): 4-14.
8. Bretschneider, S. I., W. L. Gorr. 1987. State and local government revenue forecasting. Makridakis, S., S. C. Wheelwright (eds.) The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide. Wiley, New York, pp. 118-134.
9. Bretschneider, S. I., W. L. Gorr. 1989. Forecasting as a science. Int. J. Forecast. 5(3): 305-306.
10. Bretschneider, S. I., W. L. Gorr, G. Grizzle, E. Klay. 1989. Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues. Int. J. Forecast. 5(3): 307-319
11. Bromiley, P. 1987. Do forecasts produced by organizations reflect anchoring and adjustment. J. Forecast. 6(3): 201-210
12. Cachon, G. P., M. A. Lariviere. 2001. Contracting to assure supply: how to share demand forecasts in a supply chain. Manage. Sci. 47(5): 629-646. (Pubitemid 34192788)
13. Checkland, P. B., J. Scholes. 1990. Soft Systems Methodology in Action. Wiley, Chichester, UK.
14. Copeland, T, T. Koller, J. Murrin. 1994. Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. 2nd ed. Wiley, New York.
15. Crick, B. 1962. In Defence of Politics. Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London.
16. Crittenden, V. L., L. R. Gardiner, A. Stam. 1993. Reducing conflict between marketing and manufacturing. Ind. Market. Manage. 22(4): 299-309.
17. Dahl, R. A. 1970. Modern Political Analysis. 2nd ed. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
18. Davis, D. F., J. T. Mentzer. 2007. Organizational factors in sales forecasting management. Int. J. Forecast. 23 (3): 475-795.
19. Deschamps, E. 2004. The impact of institutional change on forecast accuracy: a case study of budget forecasting in Washington State. Int. J. Forecast. 20 (4): 647-657. (Pubitemid 40262463)
20. Edmundson, R. H., M. J. Lawrence, M. J. O'Connor. 1988. The use of non-time series information in sales forecasting: a case study. J. Forecast. 7: 201-211.
21. Eisenhardt, K. M. 1989. Building theories from case study research. Acad. Manage. Rev. 14 (4): 532-550.
22. Fildes, R., R. Hastings. 1994. The organization and improvement of market forecasting.J. Operat. Res. Soc. 45(1): 1-16.
23. Fisher, M. L., J. H. Hammond, W. R. Obermeyer, A. Raman. 1994. Making supply meet demand in an uncertain world. Harvard Business Rev. 72(3): 83-93.
24. Fisher, M. L., A. Raman. 1996. Reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurate response to early sales. Operat. Res. 44(1): 87-99. (Pubitemid 126669439)
25. Gaeth, G. J., J. Shanteau. 1984. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers. Org. Behav. Hum. Perform. 33: 263-282.
26. Gaur, V., S. Kesavan, A. Raman, M. L. Fisher. 2007. Estimating demand uncertainty using judgmental forecast. Manuf. Service Operat. Manage. 9(4): 480-491.
27. Goodwin, P., G. Wright. 1993. Improving judgmental time series forecasting: a review of guidance provided by research. Int. J. Forecast. 9(2): 147-161.
28. Griffin, A., J. R. Hauser. 1992. Patterns of communication among marketing, engineering and manufacturing: a comparison between two new product teams. Manage. Sci. 38(3): 360-373.
29. Griffin, A., J. R. Hauser. 1996. Integrating R&D and Marketing: a review and analysis of the literature. J. Product Innovat. Manage. 13(1): 191-215. (Pubitemid 126359540)
30. Hagdorn-van der Meijden, L., J. A. E. E. van Nunen, A. Ramondt. 1994. Forecasting-bridging the gap between sales and manufacturing. Int. J. Product. Econom. 37: 101-114.
31. Hamel, G., C. K. Prahalad. 1989. Strategic intent. Harvard Business Rev. 67(3): 63-78. (Pubitemid 40950296)
32. Hammond, J. H. 1990. Quick response in the Apparel Industry. Harvard Business School Note 690-038. Harvard Business School, Boston.
33. Hammond, J. H., A. Raman. 1995. Sport Obermeyer Ltd. Harvard Business School Case 695-002. Harvard Business School, Boston.
34. Hanke, J. E., A. G. Reitsch. 1995. Business Forecasting. 5th ed. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
35. Hughes, M. S. 2001. Forecasting practice: organizational issues. J. Operat. Res. Soc. 52(2): 143-149.
36. Janis, I. L. 1972. Victims of Groupthirtk. Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
37. Kahn, K. B., J. T. Mentzer. 1994. The impact of team-based forecasting. J. Business Forecast. 13(2): 18-21. (Pubitemid 24810406)
38. Keating, E. K., R. Oliva, N. Repenning, S. F. Rockart, J. D. Sterman. 1999. Overcoming the improvement paradox. Eur. Manage. J. 17(2): 120-134.
39. Lapide, L. 2005. An S&OP maturity model. J. Business Forecast. 24(3): 15-20.
40. Lawrence, M. J., R. H. Edmundson, M. J. O'Connor. 1986. The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts. Manage. Sci. 32(12): 1521-1532.
41. Lim, J. S., M. J. O'Connor. 1995. Judgmental adjustment of initial forecasts: its effectiveness and biases. J. Behav. Decis. Making 8: 149-168.
42. Mahmoud, E., R. DeRoeck, R. Brown, G. Rice. 1992. Bridging the gap between theory and practice in forecasting. Int. J. Forecast. 8(2): 251-267.
43. Makridakis, S., S. C. Wheelwright, R. J. Hyndman. 1998. Forecasting: Methods and Applications. 3rd ed. Wiley, New York.
44. Mentzer, J. T., C. C. Bienstock. 1998. Sales Forecasting Management. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA.
45. Meredith, J. 1998. Building operations management theory through case and field research. J. Operat. Manage. 16: 441-454. (Pubitemid 128408887)
46. Oliva, R. 2001. Tradeoffs in responses to work pressure in the service industry. Calif. Manage. Rev. 43(4): 26-43. (Pubitemid 33337184)
47. Oliva, R., J. D. Sterman. 2001. Cutting corners and working overtime: quality erosion in the service industry. Manage. Sci. 47(7): 894 -914. (Pubitemid 34192815)
48. Oliva, R., N. Watson. 2004. What drives supply chain behavior? Harvard Bus. Sch., June 7, 2004. Available at http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item.jhtml?id= 4170&t=bizhistory
49. Oliva, R., N. Watson. 2008. Cross functional alignment in supply chain planning: A case study of sales & operations planning. Working Paper 07-001, Harvard Business School, Boston.
50. Orlikowski, W. 1992. The duality of technology: rethinking the concept of technology in organizations. Organ. Sci. 3(3): 398-427.
51. Pfeffer, J., G. R. Salancik. 1974. Organizational decision making as a political process: the case of a university budget. Admin. Sci. Q. 19(2): 135-151.
52. Rowe, G., G. Wright. 1999. The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. Int. J. Forecast. 12(1): 73-92.
53. Rowe, G., G. Wright. 2001. Expert opinions in forecasting: the role of the Delphi technique. Armstrong, J. S. (ed.) Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA, 125-144.
54. Salancik, G. R., J. Pfeffer. 1977. Who gets power - and how they hold on to it: a strategic-contingency model of power. Organ. Dynam. 5(3): 3-21.
55. Sanders, N. R., K. B. Manrodt. 1994. Forecasting practices in U.S. corporations: survey results. Interfaces 24: 91-100. (Pubitemid 24782951)
56. Sanders, N. R., L. P. Ritzman. 1992. Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: a comparison. OMEGA 20: 353-364.
57. Sanders, N. R., L. P. Ritzman. 2001. Judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts. Armstrong, J. S. (ed.) Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 405 -416.
58. Shapiro, B. P. 1977. Can marketing and manufacturing coexist? Harvard Business Rev. 55(5): 104-114.
59. Stein, J. C. 1997. Internal capital markets and the competition for corporate resources. J. Finance 52(1): 111-133. (Pubitemid 127343965)
60. Terwiesch, C, Z. J. Ren, T. H. Ho, M. A. Cohen. 2005. An empirical analysis of forecast sharing in the semiconductor equipment supply chain. Manage. Sci. 51(2): 208-220.
61. Voorhees, W. R. 2000. The impact of political, institutional, methodological, and economic factors on forecast error. PhD dissertation, Indiana University. Watson, M. C. 1996. Forecasting in the Scottish electronics industry. Int. J. Forecast. 12(3): 361-371.
62. Watson, M. C. 1996. Forecasting in the Scottish electronics industry. Int. J. Forecast. 12(3): 361-371. (Pubitemid 126160450)
63. Watson, N., R. Oliva. 2005. Leitax (A). Harvard Business School Case 606-002. Harvard Business School, Boston.
64. Wheelwright, S. C, K. B. Clark. 1992. Revolutionizing Product Development. Wiley, New York.
65. Yin, R. 1984. Case Study Research. Sage, Beverly Hills, CA.