메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 22, Issue 10, 2009, Pages 2526-2540

The role of stochastic forcing in ensemble forecasts of the 1997/98 El Niño

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AUSTRALIA; COUPLED MODELS; EASTERN PACIFIC; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODELS; SEASONAL FORECASTS; SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS; STOCHASTIC FORCING; WESTERN PACIFIC;

EID: 66849106719     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2469.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (13)

References (48)
  • 1
    • 66849102900 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Alves, O., and Coauthors, 2003: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Science for Drought: Proceedings of the National Drought Forum, Brisbane, April 2003, R. Stone and I. Partridge, Eds., Department of Primary Industries, 49-56.
    • Alves, O., and Coauthors, 2003: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Science for Drought: Proceedings of the National Drought Forum, Brisbane, April 2003, R. Stone and I. Partridge, Eds., Department of Primary Industries, 49-56.
  • 2
    • 0010387656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997-98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset
    • Barnston, A. G., Y. He, and M. H. Glantz, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997-98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 217-243.
    • (1999) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.80 , pp. 217-243
    • Barnston, A.G.1    He, Y.2    Glantz, M.H.3
  • 3
    • 22944453340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characteristics of stochastic variability associated with ENSO and role of MJO
    • Batstone, C., and H. H. Hendon, 2005: Characteristics of stochastic variability associated with ENSO and role of MJO. J. Climate, 18, 1773-1789.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 1773-1789
    • Batstone, C.1    Hendon, H.H.2
  • 4
    • 0035872005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intraseasonal air-sea interactions at the onset of El Niño
    • Bergman, J. W., H. H. Hendon, and K. M. Weickmann, 2001: Intraseasonal air-sea interactions at the onset of El Niño. J. Climate, 14, 1702-1719.
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 1702-1719
    • Bergman, J.W.1    Hendon, H.H.2    Weickmann, K.M.3
  • 5
    • 2142769807 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Role of high- and low-frequency winds and wave reflection in the onset, growth and termination of the 1997-1998 El Niño
    • Boulanger, J.-P., C. Menkes, and M. Lengaigne, 2004: Role of high- and low-frequency winds and wave reflection in the onset, growth and termination of the 1997-1998 El Niño. Climate Dyn., 22, 267-280.
    • (2004) Climate Dyn , vol.22 , pp. 267-280
    • Boulanger, J.-P.1    Menkes, C.2    Lengaigne, M.3
  • 6
    • 1942520295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years
    • Chen, D., M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak, and D. Huang, 2004: Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature, 428, 733-735.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.428 , pp. 733-735
    • Chen, D.1    Cane, M.A.2    Kaplan, A.3    Zebiak, S.E.4    Huang, D.5
  • 7
    • 27744543245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Westerly wind bursts: ENSO's tail rather than the dog?
    • Eisenman, I., L. Yu, and E. Tziperman, 2005: Westerly wind bursts: ENSO's tail rather than the dog? J. Climate, 18, 5224-5238.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 5224-5238
    • Eisenman, I.1    Yu, L.2    Tziperman, E.3
  • 8
    • 0000512114 scopus 로고
    • The life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Hendon, H. H., and M. L. Salby, 1994: The life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2225-2237.
    • (1994) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.51 , pp. 2225-2237
    • Hendon, H.H.1    Salby, M.L.2
  • 9
    • 0033172554 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual variation of the Madden-Julian oscillation during austral summer
    • Hendon, H. H., C. Zhang, and J. D. Glick, 1999: Interannual variation of the Madden-Julian oscillation during austral summer. J. Climate, 12, 2538-2550.
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 2538-2550
    • Hendon, H.H.1    Zhang, C.2    Glick, J.D.3
  • 10
    • 33847385448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship
    • Hendon, H. H., M. C. Wheeler, and C. Zhang, 2007: Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship. J. Climate, 20, 531-543.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 531-543
    • Hendon, H.H.1    Wheeler, M.C.2    Zhang, C.3
  • 11
    • 0035385372 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EOF representations of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its connection with ENSO
    • Kessler, W. S., 2001: EOF representations of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its connection with ENSO. J. Climate, 14, 3055-3061.
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 3055-3061
    • Kessler, W.S.1
  • 12
    • 0029527360 scopus 로고
    • Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific
    • Kessler, W. S., M. J. McPhaden, and K. M. Weickmann, 1995: Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 10 613-10 631.
    • (1995) J. Geophys. Res , vol.100
    • Kessler, W.S.1    McPhaden, M.J.2    Weickmann, K.M.3
  • 13
    • 0031450897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients
    • Kleeman, R., and A. M. Moore, 1997: A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 753-767.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.54 , pp. 753-767
    • Kleeman, R.1    Moore, A.M.2
  • 15
    • 0037731022 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-98 El Niño?
    • Landsea, C. W., and J. A. Knaff, 2000: How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-98 El Niño? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2107-2120.
    • (2000) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.81 , pp. 2107-2120
    • Landsea, C.W.1    Knaff, J.A.2
  • 16
    • 0032577947 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO
    • Latif, M., and Coauthors, 1998: A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 375-14 393.
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res , vol.103
    • Latif, M.1
  • 17
    • 0022841460 scopus 로고
    • The 40-50 day oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation: A new perspective
    • Lau, K.-M., and P. H. Chan, 1986: The 40-50 day oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation: A new perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 67, 533-534.
    • (1986) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.67 , pp. 533-534
    • Lau, K.-M.1    Chan, P.H.2
  • 18
    • 0024189876 scopus 로고
    • Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection: A possible link between the 40-50 day oscillation and ENSO?
    • Lau, K.-M., and P. H. Chan, 1988: Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection: A possible link between the 40-50 day oscillation and ENSO? J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 506-521.
    • (1988) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.45 , pp. 506-521
    • Lau, K.-M.1    Chan, P.H.2
  • 20
    • 0344121679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The March 1997 Westerly Wind Event and the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño: Understanding the role of the atmospheric response
    • Lengaigne, M., J.-P. Boulanger, C. Menkes, G. Madec, P. Delecluse, E. Guilyardi, and J. Slingo, 2003: The March 1997 Westerly Wind Event and the onset of the 1997/98 El Niño: Understanding the role of the atmospheric response. J. Climate, 16, 3330-3343.
    • (2003) J. Climate , vol.16 , pp. 3330-3343
    • Lengaigne, M.1    Boulanger, J.-P.2    Menkes, C.3    Madec, G.4    Delecluse, P.5    Guilyardi, E.6    Slingo, J.7
  • 22
    • 43149105421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An enhanced moisture convergence-evaporation feedback mechanism for MJO air-sea interaction
    • Marshall, A., O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2008: An enhanced moisture convergence-evaporation feedback mechanism for MJO air-sea interaction. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 970-986.
    • (2008) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.65 , pp. 970-986
    • Marshall, A.1    Alves, O.2    Hendon, H.3
  • 23
    • 66849085116 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A coupled GCM analysis of MJO activity at the onset to El Niño
    • Marshall, A., O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2009: A coupled GCM analysis of MJO activity at the onset to El Niño. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 966-983.
    • (2009) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.66 , pp. 966-983
    • Marshall, A.1    Alves, O.2    Hendon, H.3
  • 24
    • 0033548168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño
    • McPhaden, M. J., 1999: Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño. Science, 283, 950-954.
    • (1999) Science , vol.283 , pp. 950-954
    • McPhaden, M.J.1
  • 25
    • 0033210562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Niño
    • McPhaden, M. J., and X. Yu, 1999: Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2961-2964.
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.26 , pp. 2961-2964
    • McPhaden, M.J.1    Yu, X.2
  • 26
    • 0032881304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation
    • Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1999: Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 12, 1199-1220.
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 1199-1220
    • Moore, A.M.1    Kleeman, R.2
  • 27
    • 0028581380 scopus 로고
    • Improved global sea surface temperature analyses
    • Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.
    • (1994) J. Climate , vol.7 , pp. 929-948
    • Reynolds, R.W.1    Smith, T.M.2
  • 28
    • 0036648346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate
    • Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 1609-1625
    • Reynolds, R.W.1    Rayner, N.A.2    Smith, T.M.3    Stokes, D.C.4    Wang, W.5
  • 29
    • 0034351931 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The response of an ENSO model to climate noise, weather noise, and intraseasonal forcing
    • Roulston, M. S., and J. D. Neelin, 2000: The response of an ENSO model to climate noise, weather noise, and intraseasonal forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3723-3726.
    • (2000) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.27 , pp. 3723-3726
    • Roulston, M.S.1    Neelin, J.D.2
  • 30
    • 0000512115 scopus 로고
    • Intraseasonal behavior of clouds, temperature, and motion in the tropics
    • Salby, M. L., and H. H. Hendon, 1994: Intraseasonal behavior of clouds, temperature, and motion in the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2207-2224.
    • (1994) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.51 , pp. 2207-2224
    • Salby, M.L.1    Hendon, H.H.2
  • 32
    • 2542613974 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The 1997-98 El Niño
    • Slingo, J. M., 1998: The 1997-98 El Niño. Weather, 53, 274-281.
    • (1998) Weather , vol.53 , pp. 274-281
    • Slingo, J.M.1
  • 33
    • 0032966819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Niño
    • Slingo, J. M., D. P. Rowell, K. R. Sperber, and E. Nortley, 1999: On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Niño. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 583-609.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.125 , pp. 583-609
    • Slingo, J.M.1    Rowell, D.P.2    Sperber, K.R.3    Nortley, E.4
  • 34
    • 0000540701 scopus 로고
    • A univariate statistical interpolation scheme for subsurface thermal analyses in the tropical oceans
    • Smith, N. R., J. E. Blomley, and G. Meyers, 1991: A univariate statistical interpolation scheme for subsurface thermal analyses in the tropical oceans. Prog. Oceanogr., 28, 219-256.
    • (1991) Prog. Oceanogr , vol.28 , pp. 219-256
    • Smith, N.R.1    Blomley, J.E.2    Meyers, G.3
  • 35
    • 0042350949 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • OASIS 2.4 Ocean Atmospheric Sea Ice Soil user's guide, version 2.4
    • TR/CMGC/00-10, 85 pp
    • Valcke, S., L. Terray, and A. Piacentini, 2000: OASIS 2.4 Ocean Atmospheric Sea Ice Soil user's guide, version 2.4. CERFACS Tech. Rep. CERFACS TR/CMGC/00-10, 85 pp.
    • (2000) CERFACS Tech. Rep. CERFACS
    • Valcke, S.1    Terray, L.2    Piacentini, A.3
  • 36
    • 0033827963 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What caused the onset of the 1997-98 El Niño?
    • van Oldenborgh, G. J., 2000: What caused the onset of the 1997-98 El Niño? Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2601-2607.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.128 , pp. 2601-2607
    • van Oldenborgh, G.J.1
  • 37
    • 0034210162 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño, and equatorial westerly wind events
    • Slingo, J. M., and D. E. Harrison, 2000: Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño, and equatorial westerly wind events. J. Climate, 13, 1814-1830.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 1814-1830
    • Slingo, J.M.1    Harrison, D.E.2
  • 38
    • 33644624498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reasssesing the role of stochastic forcing in the 1997-1998 El Niño
    • doi:10.1029/2005GL024738
    • Slingo, J. M., A. T. Wittenberg, and A. Rosati, 2006: Reasssesing the role of stochastic forcing in the 1997-1998 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024738.
    • (2006) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.33
    • Slingo, J.M.1    Wittenberg, A.T.2    Rosati, A.3
  • 39
    • 66849085112 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vialard, J., F. Vitart, M. A. Balmaseda, T. N. Stockdale, and D. L. T. Anderson, 2003: An ensemble generation method for seasonal forecasting with an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. ECMWFTech. Memo. 417, 22 pp. [Available online at http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/ ecpublications/_pdf/tm/401-500/tm417.pdf.]
    • Vialard, J., F. Vitart, M. A. Balmaseda, T. N. Stockdale, and D. L. T. Anderson, 2003: An ensemble generation method for seasonal forecasting with an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. ECMWFTech. Memo. 417, 22 pp. [Available online at http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/ ecpublications/_pdf/tm/401-500/tm417.pdf.]
  • 40
    • 0345415553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Westerly wind events and 1997/98 El Niño event in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system: A case study
    • Vitart, F., M. A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, and D. Anderson, 2003: Westerly wind events and 1997/98 El Niño event in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system: A case study. J. Climate, 16, 3153-3170.
    • (2003) J. Climate , vol.16 , pp. 3153-3170
    • Vitart, F.1    Balmaseda, M.A.2    Ferranti, L.3    Anderson, D.4
  • 41
    • 2942673326 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction
    • Wheeler, M., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.132 , pp. 1917-1932
    • Wheeler, M.1    Hendon, H.H.2
  • 42
    • 0041589277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Case analysis of a role of ENSO in regulating the generation of westerly wind bursts in the western equatorial Pacific
    • doi:10.1029/2002JC001498
    • Yu, L., R. A. Weller, and W. T. Liu, 2003: Case analysis of a role of ENSO in regulating the generation of westerly wind bursts in the western equatorial Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3128, doi:10.1029/2002JC001498.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res , vol.108 , pp. 3128
    • Yu, L.1    Weller, R.A.2    Liu, W.T.3
  • 43
    • 23644455717 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The linear response of ENSO to the Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Zavala-Garay, J., C. Zhang, A. M. Moore, and R. Kleeman, 2005: The linear response of ENSO to the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 18, 2441-2459.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 2441-2459
    • Zavala-Garay, J.1    Zhang, C.2    Moore, A.M.3    Kleeman, R.4
  • 44
    • 0000335201 scopus 로고
    • A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
    • Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.115 , pp. 2262-2278
    • Zebiak, S.E.1    Cane, M.A.2
  • 45
    • 0036747235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation in the equatorial Pacific
    • Zhang, C., and J. Gottschalck, 2002: SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation in the equatorial Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2429-2445.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 2429-2445
    • Zhang, C.1    Gottschalck, J.2
  • 47
  • 48
    • 27344457865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Indian Ocean variability and its association with ENSO in a global coupled model
    • Zhong, A., H. H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2005: Indian Ocean variability and its association with ENSO in a global coupled model. J. Climate, 18, 3634-3649.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 3634-3649
    • Zhong, A.1    Hendon, H.H.2    Alves, O.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.