메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 283, Issue 5404, 1999, Pages 950-954

Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;

EID: 0033548168     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.283.5404.950     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (1145)

References (75)
  • 1
    • 0345068559 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The ENSO cycle is an irregular oscillation of the climate system with a period of roughly 3 to 4 years. It consists of a warm phase, El Niño, and a cold phase, La Niña.
  • 2
    • 0040987504 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Academy Press, Washington, DC
    • National Research Council, Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1996); M. J. McPhaden et al., J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14169 (1998).
    • (1996) Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program
  • 3
    • 0000101471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Research Council, Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1996); M. J. McPhaden et al., J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14169 (1998).
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103 , pp. 14169
    • McPhaden, M.J.1
  • 4
    • 0032562755 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. A. Kerr, Science 280, 522 (1998).
    • (1998) Science , vol.280 , pp. 522
    • Kerr, R.A.1
  • 7
    • 0345068558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • At some locations along the Peru coast, surface temperature anomalies peaked at 8° to 9°C above normal between December 1997 and March 1998 (Climate Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, Climate Diagnostics Bulletin, May 1998, Washington, DC).
  • 8
    • 0000107799 scopus 로고
    • R. A. Madden and P. R. Julian, J. Atmos. Sci. 29, 1109 (1972); K.-M. Lau and P. H. Chan, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 67, 533 (1986); C. Jones, D. E. Waliser, C. Gautier, J. Clim. 11, 1057 (1998).
    • (1972) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.29 , pp. 1109
    • Madden, R.A.1    Julian, P.R.2
  • 9
    • 0022841460 scopus 로고
    • R. A. Madden and P. R. Julian, J. Atmos. Sci. 29, 1109 (1972); K.-M. Lau and P. H. Chan, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 67, 533 (1986); C. Jones, D. E. Waliser, C. Gautier, J. Clim. 11, 1057 (1998).
    • (1986) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.67 , pp. 533
    • Lau, K.-M.1    Chan, P.H.2
  • 10
    • 0031683681 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. A. Madden and P. R. Julian, J. Atmos. Sci. 29, 1109 (1972); K.-M. Lau and P. H. Chan, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 67, 533 (1986); C. Jones, D. E. Waliser, C. Gautier, J. Clim. 11, 1057 (1998).
    • (1998) J. Clim. , vol.11 , pp. 1057
    • Jones, C.1    Waliser, D.E.2    Gautier, C.3
  • 13
    • 0025627817 scopus 로고
    • Advection of the eastern edge of the warm pool was also an important feature of previous El Niño events [M. J. McPhaden and J. Picaut, Science 250, 1385 (1990); J. Picaut and T. Delcroix, J. Geophys. Res. 100, 18393 (1995); J. Picaut, M. Ioualalen, C. Menkes, T. Delcroix, M. J. McPhaden, Science 274, 1486 (1996)]. Details of how high-frequency wind forcing can rectify into low-frequency eastward expansion of the warm pool were described in W. S. Kessler, M. J. McPhaden, and K. M. Weickmann [J. Geophys. Res. 100, 10613 (1995)].
    • (1990) Science , vol.250 , pp. 1385
    • McPhaden, M.J.1    Picaut, J.2
  • 14
    • 0029475902 scopus 로고
    • Advection of the eastern edge of the warm pool was also an important feature of previous El Niño events [M. J. McPhaden and J. Picaut, Science 250, 1385 (1990); J. Picaut and T. Delcroix, J. Geophys. Res. 100, 18393 (1995); J. Picaut, M. Ioualalen, C. Menkes, T. Delcroix, M. J. McPhaden, Science 274, 1486 (1996)]. Details of how high-frequency wind forcing can rectify into low-frequency eastward expansion of the warm pool were described in W. S. Kessler, M. J. McPhaden, and K. M. Weickmann [J. Geophys. Res. 100, 10613 (1995)].
    • (1995) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.100 , pp. 18393
    • Picaut, J.1    Delcroix, T.2
  • 15
    • 0029660116 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advection of the eastern edge of the warm pool was also an important feature of previous El Niño events [M. J. McPhaden and J. Picaut, Science 250, 1385 (1990); J. Picaut and T. Delcroix, J. Geophys. Res. 100, 18393 (1995); J. Picaut, M. Ioualalen, C. Menkes, T. Delcroix, M. J. McPhaden, Science 274, 1486 (1996)]. Details of how high-frequency wind forcing can rectify into low-frequency eastward expansion of the warm pool were described in W. S. Kessler, M. J. McPhaden, and K. M. Weickmann [J. Geophys. Res. 100, 10613 (1995)].
    • (1996) Science , vol.274 , pp. 1486
    • Picaut, J.1    Ioualalen, M.2    Menkes, C.3    Delcroix, T.4    McPhaden, M.J.5
  • 16
    • 0029527360 scopus 로고
    • Advection of the eastern edge of the warm pool was also an important feature of previous El Niño events [M. J. McPhaden and J. Picaut, Science 250, 1385 (1990); J. Picaut and T. Delcroix, J. Geophys. Res. 100, 18393 (1995); J. Picaut, M. Ioualalen, C. Menkes, T. Delcroix, M. J. McPhaden, Science 274, 1486 (1996)]. Details of how high-frequency wind forcing can rectify into low-frequency eastward expansion of the warm pool were described in W. S. Kessler, M. J. McPhaden, and K. M. Weickmann [J. Geophys. Res. 100, 10613 (1995)].
    • (1995) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.100 , pp. 10613
    • Kessler, W.S.1    McPhaden, M.J.2    Weickmann, K.M.3
  • 17
    • 0029527511 scopus 로고
    • W. S. Kessler and M. J. McPhaden, Deep-Sea Res. Part 2 42, 295 (1995); T. P. Barnett, M. Latif, E. Kirk, E. Roeckner, J. Clim. 4, 487 (1991).
    • (1995) Deep-Sea Res. , vol.42 , Issue.PART 2 , pp. 295
    • Kessler, W.S.1    McPhaden, M.J.2
  • 20
    • 0030515286 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. A. Weller and S. P. Anderson, J. Clim. 9, 1959 (1996); M. Cronin and M. J. McPhaden, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 8533 (1997); K. E. Brainerd and M. C. Gregg, ibid., p. 10437; J. S. Godfrey et al., ibid. 103, 14395 (1998).
    • (1996) J. Clim. , vol.9 , pp. 1959
    • Weller, R.A.1    Anderson, S.P.2
  • 21
    • 0030812791 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. A. Weller and S. P. Anderson, J. Clim. 9, 1959 (1996); M. Cronin and M. J. McPhaden, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 8533 (1997); K. E. Brainerd and M. C. Gregg, ibid., p. 10437; J. S. Godfrey et al., ibid. 103, 14395 (1998).
    • (1997) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.102 , pp. 8533
    • Cronin, M.1    McPhaden, M.J.2
  • 22
    • 0030515286 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. A. Weller and S. P. Anderson, J. Clim. 9, 1959 (1996); M. Cronin and M. J. McPhaden, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 8533 (1997); K. E. Brainerd and M. C. Gregg, ibid., p. 10437; J. S. Godfrey et al., ibid. 103, 14395 (1998).
    • J. Geophys. Res. , pp. 10437
    • Brainerd, K.E.1    Gregg, M.C.2
  • 23
    • 0032577960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. A. Weller and S. P. Anderson, J. Clim. 9, 1959 (1996); M. Cronin and M. J. McPhaden, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 8533 (1997); K. E. Brainerd and M. C. Gregg, ibid., p. 10437; J. S. Godfrey et al., ibid. 103, 14395 (1998).
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103 , pp. 14395
    • Godfrey, J.S.1
  • 24
    • 0024189014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • D. Battisti, J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 2889 (1988); M. J. Suarez and P. S. Schopf, ibid., p. 3283; P. S. Schopf and M. J. Suarez, ibid., p. 549.
    • (1988) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.45 , pp. 2889
    • Battisti, D.1
  • 25
    • 0024189014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • D. Battisti, J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 2889 (1988); M. J. Suarez and P. S. Schopf, ibid., p. 3283; P. S. Schopf and M. J. Suarez, ibid., p. 549.
    • J. Atmos. Sci. , pp. 3283
    • Suarez, M.J.1    Schopf, P.S.2
  • 26
    • 0024189014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • D. Battisti, J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 2889 (1988); M. J. Suarez and P. S. Schopf, ibid., p. 3283; P. S. Schopf and M. J. Suarez, ibid., p. 549.
    • J. Atmos. Sci. , pp. 549
    • Schopf, P.S.1    Suarez, M.J.2
  • 27
    • 0000753313 scopus 로고
    • This aspect of delayed oscillator theory was anticipated by K. Wyrtki [J. Phys. Oceanogr. 5, 572 (1975)].
    • (1975) J. Phys. Oceanogr. , vol.5 , pp. 572
    • Wyrtki, K.1
  • 35
    • 0032468665 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • have shown theoretically how the MJO can amplify over warm surface water through ocean-atmosphere interactions
    • B. Wang and X. Xie [J. Clim. 11, 2116 (1998)] have shown theoretically how the MJO can amplify over warm surface water through ocean-atmosphere interactions. L. Yu and M. M. Reinecker [Geopbys. Res. Lett. 25, 3537 (1998)] also present evidence that cold air outbreaks from East Asia and the western North Pacific contributed to the intensification of the MJO at the beginning of the 1997-98 El Niño.
    • (1998) J. Clim. , vol.11 , pp. 2116
    • Wang, B.1    Xie, X.2
  • 36
    • 0032531333 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • also present evidence that cold air outbreaks from East Asia and the western North Pacific contributed to the intensification of the MJO at the beginning of the 1997-98 El Niño
    • B. Wang and X. Xie [J. Clim. 11, 2116 (1998)] have shown theoretically how the MJO can amplify over warm surface water through ocean-atmosphere interactions. L. Yu and M. M. Reinecker [Geopbys. Res. Lett. 25, 3537 (1998)] also present evidence that cold air outbreaks from East Asia and the western North Pacific contributed to the intensification of the MJO at the beginning of the 1997-98 El Niño.
    • (1998) Geopbys. Res. Lett. , vol.25 , pp. 3537
    • Yu, L.1    Reinecker, M.M.2
  • 37
    • 0040393466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dallas, TX, 10 to 15 January 1999 American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, use a wind-forced model to compare boundary versus wind-forced Kelvin wave amplitudes during the onset and termination phase of the 1997-98 El Niño. During the onset phase, directly wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves were about 10 times larger than those generated at the western boundary by reflecting Rossby waves. During the termination phase, boundary versus wind-forced upwelling Kelvin waves were of similar amplitudes
    • M. J. McPhaden and X. Yu [Proceedings of the Second Hayes Symposium on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability-1997/1998 ENSO Cycle, Dallas, TX, 10 to 15 January 1999 (American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 1999), pp. 38-42] use a wind-forced model to compare boundary versus wind-forced Kelvin wave amplitudes during the onset and termination phase of the 1997-98 El Niño. During the onset phase, directly wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves were about 10 times larger than those generated at the western boundary by reflecting Rossby waves. During the termination phase, boundary versus wind-forced upwelling Kelvin waves were of similar amplitudes.
    • (1999) Proceedings of the Second Hayes Symposium on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability-1997/1998 ENSO Cycle , pp. 38-42
    • McPhaden, M.J.1    Yu, X.2
  • 39
    • 0031126522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. H. Weisberg and C. Wang, Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 779 (1997); D. A. Mayer and R. H. Weisberg, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 18635 (1998).
    • (1997) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.24 , pp. 779
    • Weisberg, R.H.1    Wang, C.2
  • 40
    • 0032529795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R. H. Weisberg and C. Wang, Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 779 (1997); D. A. Mayer and R. H. Weisberg, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 18635 (1998).
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103 , pp. 18635
    • Mayer, D.A.1    Weisberg, R.H.2
  • 41
    • 0030868606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • J. Picaut, F. Masia, and Y. du Penhoat [Science 277, 663 (1997)] have suggested that zonal advection associated with eastern boundary-generated Rossby waves may be important in producing ENSO SST anomalies. These Rossby waves result from the reflection of incoming equatorial Kelvin waves along the coast of South America. For the 1997-98 event, eastern boundary reflections appear to be of secondary importance during the onset phase, given the strength of direct wind forcing along the equator. Similarly, termination of the El Niño was related more to the sudden trade wind-driven upwelling of cold water from below the surface rather than wave-related zonal advection of cool water from the east. Zonal advection due to boundary-generated Rossby waves would have brought warmer rather than colder water from the east in early 1998, because the normal east-west SST gradient along the equator was reversed at that time. Once the surface cooling was underway, however, wave-related zonal advection from eastern boundary reflections may have contributed to the westward spreading of cold SST anomalies evident in Fig. 2.
    • (1997) Science , vol.277 , pp. 663
    • Picaut, J.1    Masia, F.2    Penhoat, Y.D.3
  • 45
    • 0028315201 scopus 로고
    • M. Latif et al., Clim. Dyn. 9, 167 (1994); A. J. Busalacchi, in Modem Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling (Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1996), pp. 235-270; M. Ji and A. Leetmaa, Mon. Weather Rev. 125, 742 (1997).
    • (1994) Clim. Dyn. , vol.9 , pp. 167
    • Latif, M.1
  • 47
    • 0001098341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • M. Latif et al., Clim. Dyn. 9, 167 (1994); A. J. Busalacchi, in Modem Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling (Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1996), pp. 235-270; M. Ji and A. Leetmaa, Mon. Weather Rev. 125, 742 (1997).
    • (1997) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 742
    • Ji, M.1    Leetmaa, A.2
  • 51
    • 0020930753 scopus 로고
    • D. S. Luther, D. E. Harrison, R. A. Knox, Science 222, 327 (1983); D. E. Harrison and B. S. Geise, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 3221 (1991); M. J. McPhaden and S. P. Hayes, ibid. 95, 13195 (1990); S. Verbickas, Weather 53, 282 (1998).
    • (1983) Science , vol.222 , pp. 327
    • Luther, D.S.1    Harrison, D.E.2    Knox, R.A.3
  • 52
    • 0026274074 scopus 로고
    • D. S. Luther, D. E. Harrison, R. A. Knox, Science 222, 327 (1983); D. E. Harrison and B. S. Geise, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 3221 (1991); M. J. McPhaden and S. P. Hayes, ibid. 95, 13195 (1990); S. Verbickas, Weather 53, 282 (1998).
    • (1991) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.96 , pp. 3221
    • Harrison, D.E.1    Geise, B.S.2
  • 53
    • 0020930753 scopus 로고
    • D. S. Luther, D. E. Harrison, R. A. Knox, Science 222, 327 (1983); D. E. Harrison and B. S. Geise, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 3221 (1991); M. J. McPhaden and S. P. Hayes, ibid. 95, 13195 (1990); S. Verbickas, Weather 53, 282 (1998).
    • (1990) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.95 , pp. 13195
    • McPhaden, M.J.1    Hayes, S.P.2
  • 54
    • 0002832020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • D. S. Luther, D. E. Harrison, R. A. Knox, Science 222, 327 (1983); D. E. Harrison and B. S. Geise, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 3221 (1991); M. J. McPhaden and S. P. Hayes, ibid. 95, 13195 (1990); S. Verbickas, Weather 53, 282 (1998).
    • (1998) Weather , vol.53 , pp. 282
    • Verbickas, S.1
  • 55
    • 0029506155 scopus 로고
    • C. Penland and P. D. Sardashmuk, J. Clim. 8, 1999 (1995); B. Blanke, J. D. Neelin, D. Gutzler, ibid. 10, 1473 (1997); Y.-Q. Chen, D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, E. S. Sarachik, Mon. Weather Rev. 125, 831 (1997).
    • (1995) J. Clim. , vol.8 , pp. 1999
    • Penland, C.1    Sardashmuk, P.D.2
  • 56
    • 0031176640 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • C. Penland and P. D. Sardashmuk, J. Clim. 8, 1999 (1995); B. Blanke, J. D. Neelin, D. Gutzler, ibid. 10, 1473 (1997); Y.-Q. Chen, D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, E. S. Sarachik, Mon. Weather Rev. 125, 831 (1997).
    • (1997) J. Clim. , vol.10 , pp. 1473
    • Blanke, B.1    Neelin, J.D.2    Gutzler, D.3
  • 59
    • 0028184125 scopus 로고
    • Another interpretation of irregularity in the ENSO cycle invokes chaos theory and nonlinear interactions of ENSO with the mean seasonal cycle [E. Tziperman, L. Stone, H. Jarosh, M. A. Cane, Science 264, 72 (1994); F.-F. Jin, J. D. Neelin, M. Ghil, ibid., p. 70 (1994); P. Chang, L. Ji, B. Wang, T. Li, J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 2353 (1995)].
    • (1994) Science , vol.264 , pp. 72
    • Tziperman, E.1    Stone, L.2    Jarosh, H.3    Cane, M.A.4
  • 60
    • 0028255253 scopus 로고
    • Another interpretation of irregularity in the ENSO cycle invokes chaos theory and nonlinear interactions of ENSO with the mean seasonal cycle [E. Tziperman, L. Stone, H. Jarosh, M. A. Cane, Science 264, 72 (1994); F.-F. Jin, J. D. Neelin, M. Ghil, ibid., p. 70 (1994); P. Chang, L. Ji, B. Wang, T. Li, J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 2353 (1995)].
    • (1994) Science , pp. 70
    • Jin, F.-F.1    Neelin, J.D.2    Ghil, M.3
  • 61
    • 0028184125 scopus 로고
    • Another interpretation of irregularity in the ENSO cycle invokes chaos theory and nonlinear interactions of ENSO with the mean seasonal cycle [E. Tziperman, L. Stone, H. Jarosh, M. A. Cane, Science 264, 72 (1994); F.-F. Jin, J. D. Neelin, M. Ghil, ibid., p. 70 (1994); P. Chang, L. Ji, B. Wang, T. Li, J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 2353 (1995)].
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.52 , pp. 2353
    • Chang, P.1    Ji, L.2    Wang, B.3    Li, T.4
  • 67
    • 0028012001 scopus 로고
    • Global mean temperatures generally rise by a few tenths of a degree Celsius following the peak warming of El Niño events, due to losses of heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the overlying atmosphere [J. R. Christy and R. T. McNider, Nature 367, 325 (1994); E. K. Schneider, R. S. Lindzen, B. P. Kirtman, J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 1349 (1997)]. The rise in global mean temperatures in 1997-98 was therefore most likely augmented by the occurrence of the extreme 1997-98 El Niño.
    • (1994) Nature , vol.367 , pp. 325
    • Christy, J.R.1    McNider, R.T.2
  • 68
    • 0031133966 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rise in global mean temperatures in 1997-98 was therefore most likely augmented by the occurrence of the extreme 1997-98 El Niño
    • Global mean temperatures generally rise by a few tenths of a degree Celsius following the peak warming of El Niño events, due to losses of heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the overlying atmosphere [J. R. Christy and R. T. McNider, Nature 367, 325 (1994); E. K. Schneider, R. S. Lindzen, B. P. Kirtman, J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 1349 (1997)]. The rise in global mean temperatures in 1997-98 was therefore most likely augmented by the occurrence of the extreme 1997-98 El Niño.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.54 , pp. 1349
    • Schneider, E.K.1    Lindzen, R.S.2    Kirtman, B.P.3
  • 75
    • 0345068519 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The TAO Array is maintained through a multinational partnership involving institutions in the United States (NOAA), Japan (Japan Marine Science and Technology Center), Taiwan (National Taiwan University), and France (Institut de Recherche pour le Développment, formerly the Institut Français de Recherche pour le Développment en Coopération). Production of this manuscript was supported by NOAA's Environmental Research Laboratories. This paper is contribution number 2029 from NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and 665 from the University of Washington Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.