The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 28, Issue 15, 2008, Pages 2011-2029

  Manatsa, D ^a   Chingombe, W ^a,c   Matarira, C H ^b  

^a BINDURA UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE EDUCATION   (Zimbabwe)

^b NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LESOTHO   (Lesotho)

^c UNIVERSITY OF THE WESTERN CAPE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Drought prediction; Droughts; El Ni o Southern oscillation; Indian ocean dipole Zonal Mode; Seasonal rainfall; Southern Africa

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; DROUGHT; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; OCEAN ENGINEERING; OCEANOGRAPHY;

CO OCCURRENCES; COMPARATIVE STUDIES; CONFIDENCE LEVELS; INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE/ZONAL MODE; INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLES; INFLUENCE OF ENSO; PARTIAL CORRELATIONS; RAINFALL VARIABILITIES; SEASONAL RAINFALL; SOUTHERN AFRICA; SUMMER RAINFALLS; ZIMBABWE;

RAIN;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; CORRELATION; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION;

AFRICA; INDIAN OCEAN; SOUTHERN AFRICA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA; ZIMBABWE;

EID: 61749084412     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1695     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Agnew CT. 1999. Using the SPI to identify drought. Drought Network News 12(1): 6-12.
2. Allan R, Chambers D, Drosdowsky W, Hendon H, Latif M, Nicholls N, Smith I, Stone R, Tourre Y. 2001. Is there an Indian Ocean Dipole, and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation? CLIVAR Exchanges 6: 18-22.
3. Annamalai H, Murtugudde R. 2004. Role of the Indian Ocean in regional climate variability. Geophysical Monograph 147(6 p.1/4): 213-246.
4. Annamalai H, Xie SP, McCreary JP, Murtugudde R. 2004. Impact of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Nino. http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/~hanna/annaetal_jc2004.pdf. Accessed 10/08/2007.
5. Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T. 2003. Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on Australian winter rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 30(15): 1821, Doi: 10.1029/2003GL0179 26.
6. Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T. 2004a. Individual and combined influences of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian Monsoon. Journal of Climate 17: 3141-3155.
7. Ashok K, Chan W, Motoi T, Yamagata T. 2004b. Decadal variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L24207, Doi: 1029/2004GL021345.
8. Banquero A, Latif M, Legutke M. 2002. On Dipole Like Variability of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean. Journal of Climate 15: 1358-1368.
9. Behera SK, Yamagata T. 2003. Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 81(1): 169-177.
10. Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Delecluse P, Guildi S, Navarra A, Yamagata T. 2005. Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study. Journal of Climate 18: 4514-4530.
11. Black E. 2005. The Relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and East African rainfall. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 363: 43-47.
12. Chambers DP, Tapley BD, Stewart RH. 1999. Anomalous warming in the Indian Ocean coincident with El Niño. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 10523-10533.
13. Clark CO, Webster PJ, Cole JE. 2003. Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the Indian Ocean zonal mode and East African coastal rainfall anomalies. Journal of Climate 16: 548-554.
14. D'Abreton P, Tyson P. 1995. Divergent and non-divergent water vapor transport over southern Africa during wet and dry conditions. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 55: 47-59.
15. Dommenget D, Latif M. 2002. A cautionary note on the interpretation of the EOFs. Journal of Climate 15: 216-225.
16. England MH, Ummenhofer CC, Santoso A. 2006. Interannual rainfall extremes over Southwest Western Australia linked to Indian Ocean climate variability. Journal of Climate 19: 1948-1969.
17. Fauchereau N, Trazaska S, Rouault M, Richard Y. 2003. Rainfall variability and changes in southern Africa during the last 20th century in the Global Warming context. Natural Hazards 29: 139-154.
18. Glantz MH, Katz RW, Nicholls N (eds). 1991. Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies. Cambridge University Press; 353.
19. Gu D, Philander SGH. 1997. Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science Magazine 275(5301): 805-807.
20. Gualdi S, Guilyardi E, Navarra A, Masina S, Delecluse P. 2003. The Inter annual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM. Climate Dynamics 20: 567-582.
21. Guttman NB. 1999. Accepting the standardized precipitation index; a calculation algorithm. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35: 311-322.
22. Hastenrath S. 2002. Dipoles, temperature gradients and tropical climate anomalies. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83: 735-740.
23. Iizuka S, Matsuura T, Yamagata T. 2000. The Indian Ocean SST Dipole simulated in coupled general circulation model. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 3369-3372.
24. IPCC. 1998. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (eds). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, New York; 517.
25. Jury MR. 2002. Economic impacts of climate variability in South Africa and development of resource prediction models. Journal of Applied Climatology 41: 46-55.
26. Jury MR, Enfield DB, Me'lice J. 2002. Tropical monsoons around Africa: Stability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation associations and links with continental climate. Journal of Geophysical Research Vol.107, NO. 0, 10.1029/2000JC000507, 2002.
27. Kaplan A, Cane M, Kushnir Y, Clement A, Blumenthal M, Rajagopalan B. 1998. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 18,567-18,589.
28. Kulkarmi A, Sabate SS, Kripalani RH. 2006. Association between Extreme Monsoons and the Dipole Mode over the Indian subcontinent. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. Springer-Verlag 95: 255-268.
29. Landman WA, Mason SJ. 1999. Change in the association between Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures and summer rainfall over south Africa and Namibia. International Journal of Climatology 19: 1477-1492.
30. Lau N-C, Nath MJ. 2004. Coupled GCM simulation of atmosphere-ocean variability associated with zonally asymmetric SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean. Journal of Climate 17: 245-265.
31. Lizcano G, Todd M. 2005. Non-ENSO control on southern Africa precipitation variability. Royal Society of London. Philosophical Transactions. Series A 363(1826): 61-62.
32. Makarau A, Jury MR. 1997. Predictability of Zimbabwe summer rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 17: 1421-1432.
33. Manatsa D, Chingombe W, Matsikwa H, Matarira CH. 2007. The Superior Influence of the Darwin Sea Level pressure anomalies over ENSO as a simple drought predictor for Southern Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology DOI 10.1007/s00704-007-0315-3, www.springerlink.com/ index/8703666k4231773h.pdf.
34. Maphosa A. 1994. Lessons from 1992 drought in Zimbabwe: the quest for alternative food policies. Nordic Journal of African Studies 3(1): 53-58.
35. Mason SJ, Jury M. 1997. Climatic variability and change over Southern Africa: a Reflection on underlying processes. Progress in Physical Geography 21: 23-50.
36. Matarira CH. 1990. Drought over Zimbabwe in a regional and global context. International Journal of Climatology 10: 609-625.
37. Matarira CH, Jury M. 1992. Contrasting meteorological structure of intra-seasonal wet and dry spells in Zimbabwe. International Journal of Climatology 12(2): 165-176.
38. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale. In Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, 179-184.
39. Mulenga HM, Rouault M, Reason CJC. 2003. Dry summers over NE South Africa and associated circulation anomalies. Climate Research 25: 29-41.
40. Murtugudde R, McCreary JP Jr, Busalacchi AJ. 2000. Oceanic processes associated with anomalous events in the Indian Ocean with relevance to 1997-1998. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 3295-3306.
41. Philander SGH. 1990. El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press: New York; 288.
42. Rao SA, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T. 2002. Interannual variability in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean with a special emphasis on the Indian Ocean Dipole. Deep Sea Research-II 49: 1549-1572.
43. Rayner NA, Horton EB, Parker DE, Folland CK, Hackett RB. 1996. Version 2.2 of the Global Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature Data Set., 1993-1994. Climate Research Technical Note 74 (Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, RG12 2SY).
44. Reason CJC. 2001. Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 28(11): 2225-2228.
45. Reason CJC, Mulenga H. 1999. Relationship between South African Rainfall and SST anomalies in the South West Indian Ocean. International Journal of Climatology 19: 1651-1763.
46. Reason CJC, Jagadheesha D. 2005. A model investigation of recent ENSO impacts over southern Africa. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89: 181-205.
47. Reason CJC, Landman W, Tennant W. 2006. Seasonal to decadal prediction of southern African climate and its links with variability of the Atlantic Ocean. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87: 941-955.
48. Reason CJC, Allan RJ, Lindesay JA, Ansell TJ. 2000. ENSO and climatic signals in the Indian Ocean basin in the global context: Part 1, inter-annual composite patterns. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1285-1327.
49. Richard Y, Fauchereau N, Poccard I, Rouault M, Trzaska S. 2001. 20th century droughts in southern Africa: spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions. International Journal of Climatology 21: 873-885.
50. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS. 1989. Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 2: 268-284.
51. Rouault M, Richard Y. 2005. Intensity and spatial extent of droughts in southern Africa. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L15702, Doi:10.1029/2005GL022436.
52. Saji NH, Yamagata T. 2003. Possible roles of Indian Ocean dipole mode events on global climate. Climate Research 25: 151-169.
53. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T. 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360-363.
54. Shinoda T, Hendon HH, Alexander MA. 2004. Surface and subsurface dipole variability in the Indian Ocean and its relation with ENSO. Deep-Sea Research 51: 619-635.
55. Soman MK, Slingo JM. 1997. Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aspects of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Journal of the Meteorological Society 123: 309-336.
56. Vicente-Serrano SM. 2005. Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales; an analysis of the IberianPeninsula. Water Resources Management 20: 1.
57. Vinayachandran PN, Lizuka S, Yamagata T. 2002. Indian Ocean dipole mode events in an ocean general circulation model. Deep Sea Research, Part II 49: 1573-1596.
58. Vogel CH. 1994. (Mis)management of droughts in South Africa: past, present, future. South African Journal of Science 90: 4-5.
59. Washington R, Todd M. 1999. Tropical-Temperate tropical-temperate links in southern African and southwest Indian Ocean satellitederived daily rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 19: 1601-1616.
60. Washington R, Preston A. 2006. Extreme wet years over southern Africa: Role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D15104, Doi:10.1029/2005JD006724.
61. Washington R, Swann M, New M. 2003. Tropical oceans and the predictability of southern African rainfall in the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Cliva Exchanges ((27): http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/ ~rwashing/research/publications/clivarexchangeshadcm3.pdf).
62. Webster PJ, Moore AM, Loschnig JP, Leben RR. 1999. Coupled ocean- atmosphere dynamics in the Indian ocean during 1997-98. Nature 401: 356-360.
63. World Meteorological Organisation. 1966. Some methods in Climatological Analysis. WMO Tech. Note No. 81, WMO No. 199-TP-103, Geneva, 53.
64. World Meteorological Organisation. 1986. Guidelines to the Quality Control of Surface Climatological Data, WCP-85, WMO: AD-No. 111, 56.
65. Yamagata T, Behera SK, Rao SA, Guan Z, Ashok K. 2002. The Indian Ocean dipole: a physical entity. CLIVAR Exchanges 24: 15-18.
66. Yamagata T, Behera SK, Rao SA, Guan Z, Ashok K, Saji HN. 2003. Comments on the 'dipoles, temperature gradients, and tropical climate anomalies. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1418-1421.
67. Yamagata T, Behera SK, Rao SA, Guan Z, Ashok K, Saji HN. 2004. Coupled ocean Atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Earth Climate: The Ocean Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys, Monogr., No. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 189-212.
68. Yu JY, Lau KM 2004. Contrasting Indian Ocean SST variability with and without ENSO influence: a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM study. Journal of Meteorology Atmospheric Physics 90(3-4): 179-191.