Assessing capabilities in international politics: Biased overestimation and the case of the imaginary 'Missile Gap'

Journal of Strategic Studies

Volumn 32, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 115-147

  Renshon, Jonathan ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Assessment of adversaries; Missile Gap; Overestimation

Indexed keywords

GEOPOLITICS; INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; MILITARY APPLICATION; POLITICAL DISCOURSE; POLITICAL POWER; POLITICAL THEORY;

EID: 61549123579     PISSN: 01402390     EISSN: 1743937X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01402390802407475     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Alexander, Martin S. (1992) The Republic in Danger: General Maurice Gamelin and the Politics of French Defence, 1933-1940, Cambridge UP, Cambridge, UK
2. Babcock, Linda and Lowenstein, George (1997) Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases. Journal of Economics Perspectives, 111, pp. 109-126.
3. Ball, Desmond (1980) Politics and Force Levels: The Strategic Missile Program of the Kennedy Administration, Univ. of California Press, Berkeley
4. Barrett, David M. (2004) An Early "Year of Intelligence": CIA And Congress, 1958. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 173, pp. 468-501.
5. Bazerman, Max H. (2006) Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ
6. Blainey, Geoffrey (1973) The Causes of War, Free Press, New York
7. Betts, Richard K. (1978) Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable. World Politics, 311, pp. 61-89.
8. Breckinridge, Scott D. (1986) The CIA and the US Intelligence System, Westview Press, Boulder, CO
9. Bukharin, Oleg (2004) US Atomic Energy Intelligence Against the Soviet Target, 1945-1970. Intelligence and National Security, 194, pp. 655-679.
10. Bush, George W. The National Security Strategy of the United States, 2002.
11. Camerer, Colin and Lovallo, Dan (1999) Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach. American Economic Review, 891, pp. 306-318.
12. Christensen, Thomas J. (1996) Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization and Sino-American Conflict, 1947-1958, Princeton UP, Princeton
13. Dallek, Robert (2003) An Unfinished Life: John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963, Little, Brown, Boston
14. Darley, John M. and Batson, C. Daniel (1973) "From Jerusalem to Jericho": A Study of Situational and Dispositional Variables in Helping Behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 271, pp. 100-108.
15. Drew, S. Nelson (1989) Expecting the Approach of Danger: The "Missile Gap" as a Study of Executive-Congressional Competition in Building Consensus on National Security Issues. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 192, pp. 317-335.
16. Freedman, Lawrence (1986) US Intelligence and the Soviet Strategic Threat, Macmillan Press, UK
17. Friberg, Mats and Jonsson, Dan (1968) A Simple War and Armament Game. Journal of Peace Research, 53, pp. 233-247.
18. Garthoff, Raymond L. (1990) Estimating Soviet Military Force Levels: Some Light from the Past. International Security, 144, pp. 93-116.
19. Garthoff, Raymond L. (2004) Foreign Intelligence and the Historiography of the Cold War. Journal of Cold War Studies, 62, pp. 21-56.
20. Giglio, James N. and Rabe, Stephen G. (2003) Debating the Kennedy Presidency, Rowman & Littlefield, New York
21. Gladwell, Malcolm (2003) Connecting the Dots: The Paradoxes of Intelligence Reform. The New Yorker, pp. 83-88.
22. Halperin, Morton H. (1961) The Gaither Committee and the Policy Process. World Politics, 133, pp. 360-384.
23. Jervis, Robert (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton: Princeton UP
24. Jervis, Robert (1982) Deterrence and Perception. International Security, 73, pp. 3-30.
25. Jervis, Robert (1988) War and Misperception. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 184, pp. 675-700.
26. Jervis, Robert (2006) Reports, Politics and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq. Journal of Strategic Studies, 291, pp. 3-52.
27. Jervis, Robert (2006) Understanding Beliefs. Political Psychology, 275, pp. 641-663.
28. Johnson, Dominic D. P. (2004) Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions, Harvard UP, Cambridge, MA
29. Johnson, Dominic and Tierney, Dominic "We Shall be Smashed": The Munich Crisis, Underconfidence and War. Presentation at 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Organization
30. Jones, Edward E. and Harris, Victor A. (1967) The Attribution of Attitudes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 31, pp. 1-24.
31. Kahneman, Daniel and Renshon, Jonathan (2007) Why Hawks Win. Foreign Policy, 158, pp. 34-38.
32. Kent, Sherman (1992) A Crucial Estimate Relived. Studies in Intelligence, 365, pp. 111-119.
33. Kruger, Justin (1999) Lake Wobegon Be Gone! The "Below-Average Effect" and the Egocentric Nature of Comparative Ability Judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 772, pp. 221-232.
34. Leffler, Melvyn P. (1992) A Preponderance of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration and the Cold War, Stanford UP, Stanford, CA
35. Levy, Jack S. (1983) Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems. World Politics, 361, pp. 76-99.
36. Licklider, Roy E. (1970) The Missile Gap Controversy. Political Science Quarterly, 854, pp. 600-615.
37. Lobel, Aaron (2001) Anticipating the Collapse? Political Judgment and the Debate over CIA Assessments of the Soviet Union, 1975-1991.Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA
38. Mathews, Andrew and Mackintosh, Bundy (1998) A Cognitive Model of Selective Processing in Anxiety. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 226, pp. 539-560.
39. Matthias, Willard (2001) America's Strategic Blunders: Intelligence Analysis and National Security Policy, 1936-1991, Univ. of Pennsylvania Press, University Park, PA
40. May, Ernest (2000) Strange Victory, Farrar, Straus & Giroux, New York
41. (1996) Memorandum of Discussion at the 351st Meeting of the National Security Council. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1958-1960: National Security Policy; Arms Control and Disarmament, 25, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC
42. Moore, Don A. and Cain, Daylian M. (2007) Overconfidence and Underconfidence: When and Why People Underestimate (and Overestimate) the Competition. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1032, pp. 197-213.
43. Moore, Don A. and Small, Deborah A. (2007) Error and Bias in Comparative Judgment: On Being Both Better and Worse Than We Think We Are. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 926, pp. 972-989.
44. Nincic, Miroslav (1990) US Soviet Policy and the Electoral Connection. World Politics, 423, pp. 370-396.
45. Nolan, Janne E. (1989) Guardians of the Arsenal: The Politics of Nuclear Strategy, Basic Books, New York
46. Norling, Bernard (1978) US Intelligence and National Fairy Tales. Review of Politics, 404, pp. 553-558.
47. Plous, Scott (1993) The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, McGraw-Hill, New York
48. Pollack, Kenneth (2004) Spies, Lies and Weapons: What Went Wrong. Atlantic Monthly, 2931, pp. 79-92.
49. Prados, John (1982) The Soviet Estimate: US Intelligence Analysis and Russian Military Strength, The Dial Press, New York
50. Preble, Christopher (2003) Who Ever Believed in the "Missile Gap?": John F. Kennedy and the Politics of National Security. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 334, pp. 801-827.
51. Preble, Christopher (2004) John F. Kennedy and the Missile Gap, Northern Illinois UP, DeKalb
52. Quattrone, George A. (1982) Overattribution and Unit Formation: When Behavior Engulfs the Person. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 424, pp. 593-607.
53. Rabin, Matthew and Schrag, Joel L. (1999) First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1141, pp. 37-82.
54. Roman, Peter J. (1995) Eisenhower and the Missile Gap, Cornell UP, Ithaca, NY
55. Sagan, Scott D. (1987) SIOP-62: The Nuclear War Plan Briefing to President Kennedy. International Security, 121, pp. 22-51.
56. Schilling, Warner R. (1955) Civil Naval Politics in World War I. World Politics, 74, pp. 572-591.
57. (1996) Intentions and Capabilities: Estimates on Soviet Strategic Forces, 1950-1983, CIA, Washington, DC
58. Tang, Shiping (2005) Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict. Security Studies, 141, pp. 34-62.
59. Taylor, Shelley E. and Brown, Jonathon D. (1994) Positive Illusions and Well-Being Revisited: Separating Fact from Fiction. Psychological Bulletin, 1161, pp. 21-27.
60. Van Evera, Stephen (1999) Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict, Cornell UP, Ithaca, NY
61. Wohlstetter, Albert (1974) Is There a Strategic Arms Race?. Foreign Policy, 15, pp. 3-20.