Predicting land cover change and avian community responses in rapidly urbanizing environments

Landscape Ecology

Volumn 23, Issue 10, 2008, Pages 1257-1276

  Hepinstall, Jeffrey A ^a   Alberti, Marina ^b   Marzluff, John M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

Avian biodiversity; Land cover change; Land cover modeling; Multinomial logit; Puget Sound; Seattle; Urban development; Urban ecology

Indexed keywords

AVIFAUNA; BIODIVERSITY; COMMUNITY RESPONSE; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; INTEGRATED APPROACH; LAND COVER; LANDSAT THEMATIC MAPPER; PASSERINE; PREDICTION; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; SPECIES RICHNESS; URBANIZATION;

NORTH AMERICA; PUGET SOUND; SEATTLE; UNITED STATES; WASHINGTON [UNITED STATES];

AVES; CORVUS BRACHYRHYNCHOS;

EID: 57849148475     PISSN: 09212973     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10980-008-9296-6     Document Type: Article

References (89)

1. Alberti M (2008) Advances in urban ecology: integrating humans and ecological processes in urban ecosystems. Springer, New York
2. M Alberti JM Marzluff 2004 Ecological resilience in urban ecosystems: Linking urban patterns to human and ecological functions Urban Ecosyst 7 241 265 10.1023/B:UECO.0000044038.90173.c6
3. M Alberti JM Marzluff E Shulenberger G Bradley C Ryan C ZumBrunnen 2003 Integrating humans into ecology: opportunities and challenges for studying urban ecosystems Bioscience 53 1169 1179 10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[1169:IHIEOA]2.0. CO;2
4. Alberti M, Marzluff JM, Waddell P et al. (2006) Modeling interactions among urban development, land-cover change, and bird diversity. NSF Final Report BE/CNH 0120024
5. CM Almeida M Batty AM Monteiro G Camara BS Soares-Filho GC Cerqueira CL Pennachin 2003 Stochastic cellular automata modeling of urban land use dynamics: empirical development and estimation Comput Environ Urban Syst 27 481 509 10.1016/S0198-9715(02)00042-X
6. JP Baker DH Landers 2004 Alternative futures analysis for the Willamette River Basin, Oregon Ecol Appl 14 311 312 10.1890/02-5008
7. A Black P Morgan P Hessburg 2003 Social and biophysical correlates of change in forest landscapes of the interior Columbia Basin USA Ecol Appl 13 51 67 10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0051:SABCOC]2.0.CO;2
8. CM Blewett JM Marzluff 2005 Effects of urban sprawl on snags and the abundance and productivity of cavity-nesting birds Condor 107 677 692 10.1650/0010-5422(2005)107[0678:EOUSOS]2.0.CO;2
9. DG Brown BC Pijanowski JD Duh 2000 Modeling the relationships between land-use and land-cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA J Environ Manag 59 247 263 10.1006/jema.2000.0369
10. Brown DG, Walker R, Manson S, Seto K (2004) Modeling land use and land cover change. In: Gutman G, Janetos A, Justice C, Moran E, Mustard J, Rindfuss R, Skole D, Turner BLII (eds) Land change science: observing, monitoring, and understanding trajectories of change on the Earth's surface. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 395-409
11. DG Brown KM Johnson TR Loveland DM Theobald 2005 Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950-2000 Ecol Appl 15 1851 1863 10.1890/03-5220
12. Clark Labs (2006) Idrisi 15: the Andes edition. Clark University, Worcester
13. JS Clark SR Carpenter M Barber 2001 Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative Science 293 657 660 10.1126/science.293.5530.657
14. KC Clarke LJ Gaydos 1998 Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: long-term urban growth predictions for San Francisco and Baltimore Int J Geogr Inf Sci 12 699 714 10.1080/136588198241617
15. KC Clarke S Hoppen L Gaydos 1997 A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area Environ Plann B 24 247 261 10.1068/b240247
16. RE Donnelly JM Marzluff 2004 Importance of reserve size and landscape context to urban bird conservation Conserv Biol 18 733 745 10.1111/j.1523-1739. 2004.00032.x
17. Donnelly RE, Marzluff JM (2004b) Designing research to advance the management of birds in urbanizing areas. In: Shaw WW, Harris LK, Vandruff L (eds). Proceedings of the 4th international symposium on urban wildlife conservation, May 1-5, 1999. University of Arizona Press, Tuscon, pp 114-122
18. RE Donnelly JM Marzluff 2006 Relative importance of habitat quantity, structure, and spatial pattern to birds in urbanizing environments Urban Ecosyst 9 99 117 10.1007/s11252-006-7904-2
19. JB Dunning Jr DJ Stewart BJ Danielson BR Noon TL Root RH Lamberson EE Stevens 1995 Spatially explicit population models: current forms and future uses Ecol Appl 5 3 11 10.2307/1942045
20. JR van Eck E Koomen 2008 Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use Ann Reg Sci 42 123 140 10.1007/s00168-007-0141-7
21. RH Ewing 1994 Characteristics, causes, and effects of sprawl: a literature review Environ Urban Stud 21 1 17
22. L Fahrig HG Merriam 1994 Conservation of fragmented populations Conserv Biol 8 50 59 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1994.08010050.x
23. JA Foley D Ruth GP Asner 2005 Global consequences of land use Science 309 570 574 10.1126/science.1111772
24. Franklin JF, Dyrness CT (1988) Natural vegetation of Oregon and Washington. Oregon State University Press, Corvallis
25. J Goeghegan LA Wainger NE Bockstael 1997 Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS Ecol Econ 23 251 264 10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00583-1
26. J Goeghegan S Cortina Villar P Klepeis P Macario Mendoza Y Ogneva-Himmelberger RR Chowdhury BL Turner II C Vance 2001 Modeling tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatan peninsular region: comparing survey and satellite data Agric Ecosyst Environ 85 25 46 10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00201-8
27. Green WH (2003) Econometric analysis. Prentice Hall, New York
28. NB Grimm JM Grove STA Pickett CL Redman 2000 Integrated approaches to long-term studies of urban ecological systems Bioscience 50 571 584 10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0571:IATLTO]2.0.CO;2
29. Gutman G, Janetos A, Justice C, Moran E, Mustard J, Rindfuss R, Skole D, Turner IBL (eds) (2004) Land change science: observing, monitoring, and understanding trajectories of change on the Earth's surface. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht
30. M Hagoort S Geertman H Ottens 2008 Spatial externalities, neighbourhood rules and CA land-use modelling Ann Reg Sci 42 39 56 10.1007/s00168-007-0140-8
31. AJ Hansen R Rasker B Maxwell JJ Rotella JD Johnson AW Parmenter U Langner WB Cohen RL Lawrence MPV Kraska 2002 Ecological causes and consequences of demographic change in the new west Bioscience 52 151 162 10.1641/0006-3568(2002) 052[0151:ECACOD]2.0.CO;2
32. AJ Hansen RL Knight JM Marzluff S Powell K Brown PH Gude KB Jones 2005 Effects of exurban development on biodiversity: patterns, mechanisms, and research needs Ecol Appl 15 1893 1905 10.1890/05-5221
33. HS He 1999 The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change Ecosystems (N Y Print) 2 308 319 10.1007/s100219900082
34. Hepinstall JA, Marzluff JM, Alberti M (2008) Modeling the responses of birds to predicted changes in land cover in an urbanizing region. In: Millspaugh JJ, Thompson FR III (eds) Models for planning wildlife conservation in large landscapes. Elsevier Science, Burlington, MA, USA, pp 625-659
35. Hepinstall JA, Marzluff JM, Alberti M (2009) Predicting avian community responses to increasing urbanization. Stud Avian Biol (in press)
36. RA Houghton 1994 The worldwide extent of land-use change Bioscience 44 305 313 10.2307/1312380
37. ML Imhoff L Bounoua R DeFries WT Lawrence D Stutzer CJ Tucker T Rickets 2004 The consequences of urban land transformation on net primary productivity in the United States Remote Sens Environ 89 434 443 10.1016/j.rse.2003.10.015
38. DG Jenerette J Wu 2001 Analysis and simulation of land-use change in the Central Arizona-Phoenix region Landscape Ecol 16 611 626 10.1023/A:1013170528551
39. JP Kaye PM Groffman NB Grimm LA Baker RV Pouyat 2006 A distinct urban biogeochemistry? Trends Ecol Evol 21 192 199 10.1016/j.tree.2005.12.006
40. M Luck J Wu 2002 A gradient analysis of urban landscape pattern: a case study from the Phoenix metropolitan region, Arizona, USA Landscape Ecol 17 327 10.1023/A:1020512723753
41. Manson SM, Geoghegan J, Turner BLII (2006) State of the art in describing future changes in ecosystem services: forecasting changes in land use and land cover. In: Mooney H, Cropper A (eds) Millennium ecosystem assessment: ecosystems and well-being (volume 2: Scenarios). Island Press, Geneva, pp 74-76
42. JM Marzluff 2005 Island biogeography for an urbanizing world: how extinction and colonization may determine biological diversity in human-dominated landscapes Urban Ecosyst 8 157 177 10.1007/s11252-005-4378-6
43. JM Marzluff JC Withey KA Whittaker MD Oleyar TM Unfried S Rullman J DeLap 2008 Consequences of habitat utilization by nest predators and breeding songbirds across multiple scales in an urbanizing landscape Condor 109 516 534 10.1650/8349.1
44. GR Matlack 1993 Sociological edge effects: spatial distribution of human impact in suburban forest fragments Environ Manag 17 829 835 10.1007/BF02393903
45. D McFadden 1974 The measure of urban travel demand J Public Econ 3 303 328 10.1016/0047-2727(74)90003-6
46. K McGarigal WC McComb 1995 Relationships between landscape structure and breeding birds in the Oregon coast range Ecol Monogr 65 235 260 10.2307/2937059
47. McGarigal K, Cushman SA, Neel MC, Ene E (2002) FRAGSTATS: spatial pattern analysis program for categorical maps. Computer software program produced by the authors at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Available at the following web site: www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html
48. WB Meyer BL Turner II 1992 Human population growth and global land-use/cover change Annu Rev Ecol Syst 23 39 61 10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192. 000351
49. DJ Mladenoff 2004 LANDIS and forest landscape models Ecol Model 180 7 19 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.03.016
50. U Mörtberg B Balfors WC Knol 2007 Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning J Environ Manag 82 457 470 10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.01.005
51. Office of Financial Management State of Washington (2007) Population projections for Washington State. Available from http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/gma/ projections07.asp (accessed 1 July 2008)
52. KP Overmars PH Verburg 2004 Analysis of land use drivers at the watershed and household level: linking two paradigms at the Philippine forest fringe Int J Geogr Inf Sci 19 125 152 10.1080/13658810410001713380
53. KP Overmars GHJ de Koning A Veldkamp 2003 Spatial autocorrelation in multi-scale land use models Ecol Model 164 257 270 10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00070-X
54. DC Parker SM Manson MA Janssen M Hoffman P Deadman 2003 Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review Ann Assoc Am Geogr 93 314 337 10.1111/1467-8306.9302004
55. MJ Paul JL Meyer 2001 Streams in the urban landscape Annu Rev Ecol Syst 32 333 365 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.32.081501.114040
56. SM Pearson MG Turner JB Drake 1999 Landscape change and habitat availability in the southern Appalachian highlands and Olympic peninsula Ecol Appl 9 1288 1304 10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1288:LCAHAI]2.0.CO;2
57. STA Pickett ML Cadenasso JM Grove 2001 Urban ecological systems: linking terrestrial ecological, physical, and socioeconomic components of metropolitan areas Annu Rev Ecol Syst 32 127 157 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.32.081501.114012
58. BC Pijanowski DG Brown BA Shellito GA Manik 2002 Using neural networks and GIS to forcast land use change: a land transformation model Comput Environ Urban Syst 26 553 575
59. RG Pontius Jr J Cornell C Hall 2001 Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica Agric Ecosyst Environ 85 191 203 10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00183-9
60. RG Pontius Jr D Huffaker K Denman 2004 Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models Ecol Model 179 445 461 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.05.010
61. RG Pontius Jr W Boersma J-C Castella 2008 Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change Ann Reg Sci 42 11 37 10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2
62. T Prato 2005 Modeling ecological impacts of landscape change Environ Model Softw 20 1359 1363
63. VC Radeloff RB Hammer SI Stewart 2005 Rural, suburban sprawl in the U.S. Midwest from 1940 to 2000 and its relation to forest fragmentation Conserv Biol 19 793 805 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00387.x
64. D Revelt K Train 1998 Mixed logit with repeated choices of appliance efficiency levels Rev Econ Stat 80 647 657 10.1162/003465398557735
65. L Robinson JP Newell JM Marzluff 2005 Twenty-five years of sprawl in the Seattle region: growth management responses and implications for conservation Landsc Urban Plan 71 51 72 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2004.02.005
66. OE Sala FSI Chapin JJ Armesto 2000 Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100 Science 287 1770 1774 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
67. LC Schneider RG Pontius Jr 2001 Modeling land-use change in the Ipswich Watershed, Massachusetts, USA Agric Ecosyst Environ 85 83 94 10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00189-X
68. A Schneider KC Seto DR Webster 2005 Urban growth in Chengdu, Western China: application of remote sensing to assess planning and policy outcomes Environ Plann B Plann Des 32 323 345 10.1068/b31142
69. NH Schumaker T Ernst D White J Baker P Haggerty 2004 Projecting wildlife responses to alternative future landscapes in Oregon's Willamette Basin Ecol Appl 14 381 400 10.1890/02-5010
70. Scott JM, Davis F, Csuti B et al. (1993) Gap analysis - a geographic approach to protection of biological diversity. Wildl Monogr 123:1-41
71. KC Seto M Fragkias 2005 Quantifying spatiotemporal patterns of urban land-use change in four cities of China with time series landscape metrics Landscape Ecol 20 871 888 10.1007/s10980-005-5238-8
72. J Southworth DK Munroe H Nagendra 2004 Land cover change and landscape fragmentation-comparing the utility of continuous and discrete analyses for a western Honduras region Agric Ecosyst Environ 101 185 205 10.1016/j.agee.2003. 09.011
73. TA Spies WJ Ripple GA Bradshaw 1994 Dynamics and pattern of a managed coniferous forest landscape in Oregon Ecol Appl 4 555 568 10.2307/1941957
74. Train KE (2003) Discrete choice methods with simulation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
75. MG Turner 2005 Landscape ecology: what is the state of the science? Annu Rev Ecol Syst 36 319 344 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.36.102003.152614
76. MG Turner DN Wear RO Flamm 1996 Land ownership and land-cover change in the southern Appalachian highlands and the Olympic peninsula Ecol Appl 6 1150 1172 10.2307/2269599
77. PH Verburg GHJ de Koning K Kok A Veldkamp J Bouma 1999 A spatially explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use Ecol Model 116 45 61 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00156-2
78. PH Verburg PP Schot MJ Dijst A Veldkamp 2004 Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities GeoJournal 61 309 324 10.1007/s10708-004-4946-y
79. PH Verburg B Eickhout H VanMeijl 2008 A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use Ann Reg Sci 42 57 77 10.1007/s00168-007-0136-4
80. M-A Villard MK Trzcinski HG Merriam 1999 Fragmentation effects on forest birds: relative influence of woodland cover and configuration on landscape occupancy Conserv Biol 13 774 783 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.98059.x
81. P Waddell 2002 UrbanSim: modeling urban development for land use, transportation and environmental planning J Am Plann Assoc 68 297 314 10.1080/01944360208976274
82. Waddell P, Ulfarson GF (2003) Introduction to urban simulation: design and development of operational models. In: Stopher P, Button K, Kingsley K, Hensher D (eds) Handbook in transport, vol 5. Transport geography and spatial systems. Pergamon Press, New York
83. P Waddell A Borning M Noth N Freier M Becke GF Ulfarson 2003 Microsimulation of urban development and location choices: design and implementation of UrbanSim Netw Spat Econ 3 43 67 10.1023/A:1022049000877
84. S Walsh B Entwisle R Rindfuss P Page 2006 Spatial simulation modelling of land use/land cover change scenarios in northeastern Thailand: a cellular automata approach J Land Use Sci 1 5 28 10.1080/17474230600604213
85. DN Wear P Bolstad 1998 Land-use changes in southern Appalachian landscapes: spatial analysis and forecast evaluation Ecosystems (N Y, Print) 1 575 594 10.1007/s100219900052
86. DN Wear MG Turner RJ Naiman 1998 Land cover along an urban-rural gradient: implications for water quality Ecol Appl 8 619 630
87. D White PG Minotti MJ Barczak JC Sifneos KE Freemark MV Santelmann CF Steinitz AR Kiester EM Preston 1997 Assessing risks to biodiversity from future landscape change Conserv Biol 11 349 360 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.95458.x
88. MC Wimberly JL Ohmann 2004 A multi-scale assessment of human and environmental constraints on forest land cover change on the Oregon (USA) coast range Landscape Ecol 19 631 646 10.1023/B:LAND.0000042904.42355.f3
89. J Wu JL David 2002 A spatially explicit hierarchical approach to modeling complex ecological systems: theory and applications Ecol Model 153 7 26