메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 21, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 457-470

The public's probabilistic numeracy: How tasks, education and exposure to games of chance shape it

Author keywords

Cognitive illusions; Education; Probabilistic reasoning; Representative sample

Indexed keywords


EID: 55549102994     PISSN: 08943257     EISSN: 10990771     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.611     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (6)

References (48)
  • 3
    • 0002774299 scopus 로고
    • Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problem
    • Birnbaum, M. H. (1983). Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problem. American Journal of Psychology, 96, 85-94.
    • (1983) American Journal of Psychology , vol.96 , pp. 85-94
    • Birnbaum, M.H.1
  • 4
    • 0029023805 scopus 로고
    • Perception of risk and screening effectiveness in women younger than 50 years of age
    • Black,W. C., Nease, R. F., & Tosteson, A. (1995). Perception of risk and screening effectiveness in women younger than 50 years of age. Journal the National Cancer Institute, 87, 720-731.
    • (1995) Journal the National Cancer Institute , vol.87 , pp. 720-731
    • Black, W.C.1    Nease, R.F.2    Tosteson, A.3
  • 5
    • 0034045585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prevalence estimates of pathological gambling in Switzerland
    • Bondolfi, G., Osiek, C., & Ferrero, F. (2000). Prevalence estimates of pathological gambling in Switzerland. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 101, 473-475.
    • (2000) Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica , vol.101 , pp. 473-475
    • Bondolfi, G.1    Osiek, C.2    Ferrero, F.3
  • 7
    • 8644247363 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition
    • Dhami, M., Hertwig, R., & Hoffrage, U. (2004). The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 130, 959-988.
    • (2004) Psychological Bulletin , vol.130 , pp. 959-988
    • Dhami, M.1    Hertwig, R.2    Hoffrage, U.3
  • 8
    • 0002542465 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky Eds, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Eddy, D.M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 249-267). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 249-267
    • Eddy, D.M.1
  • 9
    • 0009278926 scopus 로고
    • Proportionality and sample size as factors in intuitive statistical judgement
    • Evans, J. St B. T., & Dusoir, A. E. (1977). Proportionality and sample size as factors in intuitive statistical judgement. Acta Psychologica, 41, 129-137.
    • (1977) Acta Psychologica , vol.41 , pp. 129-137
    • Evans, J.S.B.T.1    Dusoir, A.E.2
  • 12
    • 0000714472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky
    • Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. Psychological Review, 103, 592-596.
    • (1996) Psychological Review , vol.103 , pp. 592-596
    • Gigerenzer, G.1
  • 13
    • 0035036117 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Content-blind norms, no norms, or good norms? A reply to Vranas
    • Gigerenzer, G. (2001). Content-blind norms, no norms, or good norms? A reply to Vranas. Cognition, 81, 93-103.
    • (2001) Cognition , vol.81 , pp. 93-103
    • Gigerenzer, G.1
  • 15
    • 23644440946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A 30% chance of rain tomorrow: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?
    • Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., van den Broek, E., Fasolo, B., & Katsikopoulos, K. (2005). "A 30% chance of rain tomorrow": How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis, 25, 623-629.
    • (2005) Risk Analysis , vol.25 , pp. 623-629
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hertwig, R.2    van den Broek, E.3    Fasolo, B.4    Katsikopoulos, K.5
  • 20
    • 0034769293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Challenges for everyone: Real people, deception, one-shot games, social learning, and computers
    • Henrich, J. (2001). Challenges for everyone: Real people, deception, one-shot games, social learning, and computers. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 24, 414-415.
    • (2001) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.24 , pp. 414-415
    • Henrich, J.1
  • 21
    • 55549100376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of ''and''
    • Manuscript submitted for publication
    • Hertwig, R., Benz, B., & Krauss, S. (2008). The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of ''and''. Manuscript submitted for publication.
    • (2008)
    • Hertwig, R.1    Benz, B.2    Krauss, S.3
  • 22
    • 22844456018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conjunction fallacy revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors
    • Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The conjunction fallacy revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 275-305.
    • (1999) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.12 , pp. 275-305
    • Hertwig, R.1    Gigerenzer, G.2
  • 24
    • 11944263355 scopus 로고
    • The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment
    • Hilton, D. J. (1995). The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 118, 248-271.
    • (1995) Psychological Bulletin , vol.118 , pp. 248-271
    • Hilton, D.J.1
  • 26
    • 0003768818 scopus 로고
    • Kahneman, D, Slovic, P, & Tversky, A, Eds, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.), (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
  • 27
    • 19244362077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the reality of cognitive illusions
    • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 582-591.
    • (1996) Psychological Review , vol.103 , pp. 582-591
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 28
    • 0000858865 scopus 로고
    • Revising the South Oaks Gambling Screen in different settings
    • Lesieur, H. R., & Blume, S. B. (1993). Revising the South Oaks Gambling Screen in different settings. Journal of Gambling Studies, 9, 213-223.
    • (1993) Journal of Gambling Studies , vol.9 , pp. 213-223
    • Lesieur, H.R.1    Blume, S.B.2
  • 29
    • 0035085441 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • General performance on a numeracy scale among highly educated sample
    • Lipkus, I. M., Samsa, G., & Rimer, B. K. (2001). General performance on a numeracy scale among highly educated sample. Medical Decision Making, 21, 37-44.
    • (2001) Medical Decision Making , vol.21 , pp. 37-44
    • Lipkus, I.M.1    Samsa, G.2    Rimer, B.K.3
  • 31
    • 0035409518 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects?
    • Mellers, B., Hertwig, R., & Kahneman, D. (2001). Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? Psychological Science, 12, 269-275.
    • (2001) Psychological Science , vol.12 , pp. 269-275
    • Mellers, B.1    Hertwig, R.2    Kahneman, D.3
  • 36
    • 0002095361 scopus 로고
    • Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations?
    • Politzer, G., & Noveck, I. A. (1991). Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations? Journal of Psycholinguistic Research, 20, 83-103.
    • (1991) Journal of Psycholinguistic Research , vol.20 , pp. 83-103
    • Politzer, G.1    Noveck, I.A.2
  • 38
    • 0030666187 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of numeracy in understanding the benefit of screening mammography
    • Schwartz, L. M., Woloshin, S., Black, W., & Welch, G. (1997). The role of numeracy in understanding the benefit of screening mammography. Annals of Internal Medicine, 127, 966-972.
    • (1997) Annals of Internal Medicine , vol.127 , pp. 966-972
    • Schwartz, L.M.1    Woloshin, S.2    Black, W.3    Welch, G.4
  • 39
    • 21444448147 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intuitions about sample size: The empirical law of large numbers
    • Sedlmeier, P., & Gigerenzer, G. (1997). Intuitions about sample size: The empirical law of large numbers. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 33-51.
    • (1997) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.10 , pp. 33-51
    • Sedlmeier, P.1    Gigerenzer, G.2
  • 40
    • 0000480165 scopus 로고
    • Cognitive processes and societal risk taking
    • J. S. Carroll, & J. W. Payne Eds, Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum
    • Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1976). Cognitive processes and societal risk taking In J. S. Carroll, & J. W. Payne (Eds.), Cognition and Social Behavior. (pp. 165-184). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
    • (1976) Cognition and Social Behavior , pp. 165-184
    • Slovic, P.1    Fischhoff, B.2    Lichtenstein, S.3
  • 41
    • 0000663698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual differences in framing and conjunction effects
    • Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1998). Individual differences in framing and conjunction effects. Thinking and Reasoning, 4, 289-317.
    • (1998) Thinking and Reasoning , vol.4 , pp. 289-317
    • Stanovich, K.E.1    West, R.F.2
  • 42
    • 0034488449 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
    • Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2000). Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 645-726.
    • (2000) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.23 , pp. 645-726
    • Stanovich, K.E.1    West, R.F.2
  • 43
    • 2442644158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction?
    • Tentori, K., Bonini, N., & Osherson, D. (2004). The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction? Cognitive Science, 28, 467-477.
    • (2004) Cognitive Science , vol.28 , pp. 467-477
    • Tentori, K.1    Bonini, N.2    Osherson, D.3
  • 44
    • 0016264378 scopus 로고
    • Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
    • (1974) Science , vol.185 , pp. 1124-1131
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 45
    • 43249084062 scopus 로고
    • Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293-315.
    • (1983) Psychological Review , vol.90 , pp. 293-315
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 46
    • 0034648924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gigerenzer's normative critique of Kahneman and Tversky
    • Vranas, P. M. (2000). Gigerenzer's normative critique of Kahneman and Tversky. Cognition, 76, 179-193.
    • (2000) Cognition , vol.76 , pp. 179-193
    • Vranas, P.M.1
  • 47
    • 55549112000 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prevalence and risk of pathological gambling in Switzerland after the legalization of games of chance and casinos in 2000
    • Manuscript submitted for publication
    • Zangerl, M. A., Munsch, S., Meyer, A. H., & Margraf, J. (2008). Prevalence and risk of pathological gambling in Switzerland after the legalization of games of chance and casinos in 2000. Manuscript submitted for publication.
    • (2008)
    • Zangerl, M.A.1    Munsch, S.2    Meyer, A.H.3    Margraf, J.4
  • 48
    • 35148845495 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation of the subjective numeracy scale: Effects of low numeracy on comprehension of risk communications and utility elicitations
    • Zikmund-Fisher, B. J., Smith, D. M., Ubel, P. A., & Fagerlin, A. (2007). Validation of the subjective numeracy scale: Effects of low numeracy on comprehension of risk communications and utility elicitations. Medical Decision Making, 27, 663-671.
    • (2007) Medical Decision Making , vol.27 , pp. 663-671
    • Zikmund-Fisher, B.J.1    Smith, D.M.2    Ubel, P.A.3    Fagerlin, A.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.