Ideas, networks, and islamist movements: Evidence from Central Asia and the Caucasus

World Politics

Volumn 60, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 64-96

  Collins, Kathleen ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AUTHORITARIANISM; COMPARATIVE STUDY; ISLAMISM; LEADERSHIP; PARTY POLITICS; POLITICAL CHANGE; POLITICAL IDEOLOGY; SOCIAL MOVEMENT; SOCIAL NETWORK;

ASIA; CAUCASUS; CENTRAL ASIA; EURASIA;

EID: 42149150619     PISSN: 00438871     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/wp.0.0002     Document Type: Article

References (250)

1. "Islamist" and "Islamism" should be distinguished from the apolitical terms "Islam" and "Islamic," which refer to the religion. Joel Beinin and Joe Stork, eds., Political Islam: Essays from Middle East Report (London: I. B. Tauris, 1997); 4.
2. John Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), 6.
3. Two notable recent studies that move in this direction are Carrie Rosefsky Wickham, Mobilizing Islam: Religion, Activism, and Political Change in Egypt (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002);
4. and Quintan Wiktorowicz, ed., Islamic Activism: A Social Movement Theory Approach (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2004).
5. Olivier Roy and Gilles Kepel stress socioeconomic grievances; see Roy, The Failure of Political Islam (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1994);
6. and Kepel, Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2002). Esposito (fn. 1) offers a more nuanced historical perspective. Policy-oriented studies similarly look at Islamism writ large;
7. Graham Fuller, The Future of Political Islam (New York: Palgrave, 2003).
8. For the culturalist view, see Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996);
9. Bernard Lewis, What Went Wrong? The Clash between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001).
10. Michael Doran, "The Pragmatic Fanaticism of al Qaeda: An Anatomy of Extremism in the Middle East," Political Science Quarterly 117, no. 2 (2002);
11. Robert Pape, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism (New York: Random House, 2005);
12. Fawaz Gerges, The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005).
13. For example, Jason M. K. Lyall, "Pocket Protests: Rhetorical Coercion and the Micropolitics of Collective Action in Semiauthoritarian Regimes," World Politics 58 (April 2006);
14. Valerie Bunce and Sharon Wolchik, "Favorable Conditions and Electoral Revolutions," Journal of Democracy 17 (October 2006);
15. Joshua Tucker, "Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions" 5 (September 2007);
16. Michael McFaul, "The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World," World Politics 54 (January 2002).
17. Esposito (fn. 1);
18. Beinin and Stork (fn. 1).
19. Wickham (fn. 2);
20. Jenny White, Islamist Mobilization in Turkey (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2005);
21. Wiktorowicz (fn. 2).
22. Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 4-5.
23. Ronald Aminzade and Elizabeth Perry, "The Sacred, Religious, and Secular in Contentious Politics," in Ronald Aminzade, Jack A. Goldstone, Doug McAdam, Elizabeth Perry, William Sewell, Jr., Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, eds., Silence and Voice in the Study of Contentious Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 158.
24. Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way, "The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism," Journal of Democracy 13 (April 2002);
25. Larry Diamond, "Thinking about Hybrid Regimes," Journal of Democracy 13 (April 2002);
26. Lyall (fn. 5).
27. Kazakhstan has a large Russian/European population and has had little Islamist mobilization. HT activity has been mainly in southern, ethnically Kazakh and Uzbek areas. In Turkmenistan the state's elimination of all opposition explains the lack of mobilization there.
28. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is a fourth Islamist organization. It began as the social movement Adolat in 1992 but by 1999 had become the IMU, a terrorist organization. It is thus less comparable than the groups included here. The existence of several other groups (Islamic Jihad and Bayat) is debated, so I do not include them here. Various Islamic movements (for example, Akromiya in Uzbekistan or the Salafis in Azerbaijan) are predominantly apolitical and thus do not fit the definition of Islamist movements. For overviews, see Edward Walker, "Islam, Islamism, and Political Order in Central Asia," Journal of International Affairs 56 (Spring 2003);
29. and Eric McGlinchey, "Autocrats, Islamists, and the Rise of Radicalism in Central Asia," Current History 104 (October 2005).
30. Huntington (fn. 3);
31. Lewis (fn. 3).
32. See Esposito's critique (fn. 1).
33. Esposito (fn. 1), 10-11.
34. Kepel (fn. 3);
35. Saodat Olimova, "Sotsial'nyi kontekst: otchuzhdenie," in OSCE, ed., Religioznyi ekstremizm v tsentral'nei Azii: problemy i perspektivy [Religious Extremism in Central Asia: Problems and Perspectives] (Dushanbe: Sharq, 2002), 93-108.
36. Mark Tessler, "The Origins of Popular Support for Islamist Movements: A Political Economy Analysis," in John Entelis, ed., Islam, Democracy, and the State in North Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1997).
37. See also Human Rights Watch, Creating Enemies of the State (New York: Human Rights Watch, 2004);
38. International Crisis Group (ICG), Asia Report no. 51, Central Asia: Islam and the State, July 10, 2003 (accessed October 2003).
39. Jillian Schwedler, Faith in Moderation: Islamist Parties in Jordan and Yemen (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006);
40. Lyall (fn. 5).
41. ICG, "Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb ut-Tahrir," Asia Report no. 58, June 30, 2003, www.crisisweb.org (accessed October 2003);
42. Richard Pomfret, The Central Asian Economies since Independence (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006), 8-12.
43. Doug McAdam, John McCarthy, and Mayer Zald, eds., Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996);
44. Tarrow (fn. 8);
45. and Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, Dynamics of Contention (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
46. Wickham (fn. 2);
47. Wiktorowicz (fn. 2);
48. Sidney Tarrow, The New Transnational Activism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005).
49. Tarrow (fn. 8), 7;
50. Tilly, "Forward," in Wiktorowicz (fn. 2).
51. Quintan Wiktorowicz and Karl Kaltenthaler, "The Rationality of Radicalism," Political Science Quarterly 121 (Summer 2006), 296.
52. John McCarthy and Mayer Zald, Dynamics of Social Movements: Resource Mobilization, Social Control and Tactics (Cambridge, Mass.: Winthrop Publishers, 1979), 161;
53. David Snow and Robert Benford, "Ideology, Frame Resonance and Participant Mobilization," in Bert Klandermans, Hanspeter Kriese, and Sidney Tarrow, eds., From Structure to Action (Greenwich: JAI Press, 1988);
54. Doug McAdam, "Culture and Social Movements," in Enrique Larana and Hank Johnston, eds., New Social Movements: From Ideology to Identity (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1994).
55. Recent theoretical work focuses more on identity framing. See Tarrow (fn. 20).
56. Wickham (fn. 2), 13.
57. Tarrow (fn. 20).
58. Exceptions include Daniel Philpott, Revolutions in Sovereignty (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001). Comparative politics generally subsumes religion under ethnicity, but the ethnic politics literature devotes little attention to religion.
59. See Judith Goldstein and Robert Keohane, eds., Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1993), 9.
60. Constructivist-oriented scholars of international relations have demonstrated the powerful effects of ideas when they become institutionalized within particular international organizations or state institutions: Kathryn Sikkink, "The Power of Principled Ideas: Human Rights Policies in the United States and Western Europe," in Goldstein and Keohane, 160-69;
61. Robert Jackson, "The Weight of Ideas in Decolonization," in Goldstein and Keohane, 133-34;
62. Jeffrey Checkel, Ideas and International Political Change: Soviet/ Russian Behavior and the End of the Cold War (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997);
63. and Margaret Keck and Kathryn Sikkink, Transnational Advocacy Networks (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1998), 74-76.
64. On norms, see Peter Katzenstein, ed., Culture, Norms, and Security (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996);
65. and Lisa McIntosh Sundstrom, "Foreign Assistance, International Norms, and Civil Society Development: Lessons from the Russian Campaign," International Organization 59 (Spring 2005).
66. Peter Hall, The Power of Economic Ideas (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989);
67. Kathryn Sikkink, Ideas and Institutions (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991);
68. Craig Parsons, A Certain Idea of Europe (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2006);
69. Mark Blyth, Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002);
70. Hilary Appel, "The Ideological Determinants of Liberal Economic Reform: The Case of Privatization," World Politics 52 (July 2000), 543.
71. Several scholars stress the importance of Islamist ideas: Sheri Berman, "Islamism, Revolution, and Civil Society," Political Science and Politics 1 (June 2003), 11;
72. and Lisa Anderson, "Prospects for Liberalism in North Africa: Identities and Interests in Preindustrial Welfare States," in John Entelis, ed., Islam, Democracy and the State in North Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1997), 132.
73. On the distinction between ideas and ideology, see Stephen Hanson, "Postimperial Democracies: Ideology and Party Formation in Third Republic France, Weimar Germany, and Post-Soviet Russia," East European Politics and Society 20, no. 2 (2006), 357. The former are more diffuse; the latter systematizes ideas in a comprehensive way and sets the boundaries of membership in a community.
74. On the institutionalization and role of democratic and fascist ideas and ideologies, see Sheri Berman, The Social Democratic Moment: Ideas and Politics in the Making of Interwar Europe (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998);
75. and Hanson (fn. 29).
76. Sheri Berman, The Primacy of Politics: Social Democracy and the Making of Europe's Twentieth Century (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006), 10;
77. Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 27), 26;
78. Sikkink (fn. 27), 145.
79. Blyth (fn. 28), 38-41.
80. Robert Mitchell, The Society of the Muslim Brothers (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993);
81. Wickham (fn. 2).
82. Daniel Philpott, "The Religious Roots of Modern International Relations," World Politics 52 (January 2000), 207-8.
83. Ibid., 217.
84. Alexander Wendt, A Social Theory of International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999).
85. Wickham (fn. 2).
86. Gerges (fn. 4) similarly argues that there is great diversity among jihadist groups (p. 31).
87. In a similar vein, Gerges (fn. 4) finds that al-Qaeda had difficulty convincing national jihadists to adopt a global agenda (pp. 29-34).
88. Keck and Sikkink (fn. 27), 119;
89. Berman (fn. 30), 25.
90. On networks as pathways of diffusion, see Tarrow (fn. 20), 104.
91. On terrorist networks, see Marc Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004).
92. On Islamic networks, see Janine Clark, "Social Movement Theory and Patron-Clientelism," Comparative Political Studies 37, no. 8 (2004), 941-68.
93. Lyall (fn. 5).
94. Diane Singerman, "The Networked World of Islamist Social Movements," in Wiktorowicz (fn. 2), 149;
95. Ashutosh Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002), 39-52;
96. Kathleen Collins, Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006), 23-53.
97. Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971);
98. Mark Granovetter, "The Strength of Weak Ties," American Journal of Sociology 78 (May 1973).
99. On the Aksy protest, see Scott Radnitz, "Networks, Localism, and Mobilization in Aksy, Kyrgyzstan," Central Asia Survey 24 (December 2005).
100. Alisher Khamidov, "Hizb-ut-Tahrir and the Challenges for Central Asian Security," Brookings paper (May 2002);
101. and Bakhtiyor Babajanov, "O religiozno-politicheskoi partii 'hizb ut-takhrir" (Manuscript, Tashkent, January 2003).
102. Author interview with members, branch of Ezgulik, Namangan, Uzbekistan, January 2003.
103. Andrew Wilson, Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005).
104. Author interview with HT spokesman, Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.
105. Estimates are based on independent sources with an on-the-ground presence and knowledge of regions, neighborhoods, and villages where HT has activists and significant support. Similar assessments come from ICG (fn. 18), 17; journalists in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan; author interview with Alisher Sobirov, MP (committee on religious extremism and terrorism), Kyrgyzstan, January 2003;
106. Ahmed Rashid, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002), 131;
107. Gulnoza Saidzaimova, "Central Asia: Hizb ut-Tahrir's Calls for Islamic State Find Support," RFE/RL, January 17, 2006;
108. and Farangis Najibullah, "Central Asia: Hizb ut-Tahrir Gains Support from Women," RFE/RL, July 11, 2007. For example, journalists in Osh and Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, and Soghd, Tajikistan, pointed out areas in those regions where several thousand subscribe to HT.
109. Zeyno Baran, Hizb ut-Tahrir (Washington, D.C.: Nixon Center, 2004), 78.
110. Author interviews with Mikhail Ardzinov, director, Independent Human Rights Organization of Uzbekistan (IHROU), Tashkent, Uzbekistan, January 2003;
111. and Abdusalim Ergashev, IHROU, Andijan, Uzbekistan, January 2003, and Freedom House representatives, Tashkent, January 2003.
112. Eurasia Insight, "Religious Discontent Evident in the Ferghana Valley," January 17, 2007, (accessed January 2007);
113. Najibullah (fn. 49);
114. ICG (fn. 18), 23;
115. author interview with Rajab Mirzo, journalist, Tajikistan, August 2005.
116. Alisher Khamidov and Alisher Saipov, "Antiterrorism Crackdown Fuels Discontent in Kyrgyzstan," August 8, 2006 (accessed January 2007).
117. Analysts agree on HT's sustained growth: Alisher Khamidov (fn. 45);
118. Vitaly Naumkin, Radical Islam in Central Asia (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004), 194;
119. and Adeeb Khalid, Islam after Communism (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2007), 161.
120. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey, 2006. Kyrgyzstan has a population of over five million.
121. Kurbonali Mukhabbanov, "Religiozno-oppozitsionnye gruppy v Tadjikistane: Hizb ut-Tahrir," in OSCE (fn. 15), 83-84.
122. Erica Marat, The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan One Year After (Jamestown Foundation, 2006), 117-19 (accessed May 2006).
123. Mukhabbanov (fn. 56), 75-76;
124. Muhiddin Kabiri, "Islamskii radikalizm: faktory vozniknoveniia," in OSCE (fn. 15), 126;
125. Saniya Sagnaeva, "Religiozno-oppozitsionnye gruppy v Kyrgyzstane: Hizb ut-Tahrir," in OSCE (fn. 15);
126. and Bakhtior Babadjanov, "Religiozno-oppozitsionnye gruppy v Uzbekistane," in OSCE (fn. 15).
127. Author interview with Ergashev (fn. 51).
128. Author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48);
129. ICG (fn. 18), 19.
130. Author interview with Sevara, HT member, Osh, October 2007.
131. Author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48).
132. In interviews with journalists across the region, most agreed that HT operated with little funding; substantial resources were not necessary to fund its propaganda activities.
133. www.hizbuttahrir.org (accessed March 2003).
134. Hizb ut-Tahrir, The Methodology of Hizb ut-Tahrir for Change (London: Al-Khilafah Publications, 1999), 24-25.
135. Freedom House, Nations in Transit, World Bank, and Polity scores all rate the Central Asian regimes as highly corrupt and generally more repressive of civil and political liberties since 1992.
136. Author interview with journalist, Karshi newspaper, March 2005.
137. Author interview with HT members, Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.
138. In Kyrgyzstan, for example, 86 percent of those 18-24 and 89.6 percent of those 25-34 claim to be a "strong" or "moderate believer"; 17.4 percent of the total sample claim to have become more religious in the past five years. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey (2006). A strong majority of focus group participants were also interested in religious education.
139. Gulnoza Saidazimova, "Hizb ut-Tahrir's Calls for Islamic State Find Support," January 17, 2006 (accessed January 2006).
140. Author interview with HT women members, Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.
141. Author interview with Erkin, HT member, Ak-Artu, Osh oblast, Kyrgyzstan, October 2007.
142. Author interview with U.S. government official/trial observer, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, July 2004. Although we must be extremely circumspect of statements made under pressure in Uzbek courts, most international observers generally believe HT members freely declare their devotion to its cause.
143. Author interview with OSCE trial observer, Tashkent, January 2003.
144. Author interview with Freedom House representatives, Tashkent, November 2004; Bishkek, August 12, 2004.
145. Author interview with Ravshana Makhtamova, Khujand, Tajikistan, January 10, 2003.
146. Ibid.
147. HT leaflets, Uzbekistan, 2003.
148. HT leaflet, "7000 Muslims Languishing in Uzbek Prisons," December 30, 2002.; this information is referenced at www.muslimuzbekistan.net.
149. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey, 2006. Another 48.9 percent were uncertain ("don't know"), while 26.5 percent "disagreed" and 7.5 percent "completely disagreed."
150. ICG, Asia Briefing no. 38, "Uzbekistan: The Andijon Uprising," May 25, 2005;
151. Human Rights Watch, "Bullets Were Falling Like Rain," hrw.org /reports/2005/Uzbekistan0605/2 (accessed January 2006).
152. HT leaflet, Uzbekistan, "How the Butcher of Andijan Executed His Plan," www.hizbuttahrir.org (accessed December 2005).
153. Author interview with Osh journalist, June 2, 2005; the journalist shared leaflet content for January-March 2005.
154. Gulnoza Saidzaimova, "Kyrgyzstan: Hizb ut-Tahrir Rallies in South, Urges Election Boycott," www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/2/ 2FF7FDEF-DAE8-4323-SF61-346A404F3EE9.html (accessed April 2005).
155. In Kyrgyzstan, 94.1 percent replied that corruption was a "very serious" or "serious" problem. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.
156. Author interview with Dastan, independent journalist, Jalalabad, August 2004. Akaev was overthrown in March 2005.
157. Taqiuddin Al-Nabhani, The Khalifa, www.hizbuttahrir.org.
158. Author interview with Ravshana Mahtamova, Khujand, January 10, 2003.
159. Only 13.7 percent of Kyrgyzstani respondents rated the Palestinian jihad as "just." Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.
160. HT leaflet, "Karimov's decisions are another group of weapons to trample on the Muslim population of Uzbekistan," October 4, 2002. In Kyrgyzstan, 27.6 percent of respondents reported a "negative" or "very negative" opinion of Jews. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.
161. HT leaflet, Uzbekistan, October 2002.
162. 42.4 percent reported a negative view of Christian missionaries. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.
163. Participants in forty-nine FGDs were asked about value change since 1991. In forty-eight (98 percent) of those groups participants were very concerned about negative social changes and moral decline. In one group (2 percent) participants expressed neutral to favorable views.
164. OSCE, unpublished memo, courtesy of OSCE representative, Dushanbe, July 2002.
165. Khalid (fn. 54).
166. Author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48).
167. Author interview with Tursunbai Bakir uluu, Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary ombudsman, Bishkek, January 2003, who is quoting an HT activist.
168. Author interview with HT member, Shukrat, Osh, October 2007.
169. Author interview, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, June 2005.
170. "Lying Is the Weapon of the Tyrant of Uzbekistan," HT leaflet, May 14, 2005.
171. Author interview with Omurzak Mamayusupov, head of State Committee on Religious Affairs, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.
172. For example, Daniel Kimmage, "Kyrgyz Police Stop Hizb ut-Tahrir Printing Press," RFE/RL, 8/2/2007.
173. Communications with local experts and journalists, Osh, jalalabad, Tashkent, and Dushanbe, 2002-4.
174. ICG (fn.18), 20. HT members interviewed also responded that a personal connection or davatchi had introduced them to HT.
175. Author interview with HT members, Jalalabad, August 2004;
176. Naumkin (fn. 54), 147;
177. Rashid (fn. 49), 127-28.
178. Author interview with Alexander Rahmanov, Bureau on Human Rights and Law, Khujand, January 2003. Conversations with Kyrgyz journalists, 2002-5.
179. ICG (fn. 18), 23;
180. author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48);
181. author interview with Freedom House representative, Tashkent, November 2004.
182. While only 10.5 percent in Kyrgyzstan believe that "Muslims should live in a caliphate," 28.1 percent supported some form of "sharia" and 15.6 percent supported "Islamic democracy." Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.
183. ICG (fn. 18), 18.
184. Author interview with Seid Abdullo Nuri, chairman of the IRP, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, August 14, 2002.
185. "Tajikistan Votes 2005," www.RFERL.org (accessed August 2006).
186. Saodat Olimova, "Political Islam and Conflict in Tajikistan," Central Asia and the Caucasus (1999), 5, www.ca-c.org (accessed June 2002);
187. Igor Rotar, "Under the Green Banner: Islamic Radicals in Russia and the Former Soviet Union," Religion, State and Society 30, no. 2 (2002), 123;
188. V. Bushkov and D. Mikul'sky, Istoriia grazhdanskoi voiny v tadzhikistane [The History of the Civil War in Tajikistan] (Moscow: AN, 1996), 110.
189. Naumkin (fn. 54), 224-25.
190. Olimova (fn. 15), 95-96. The national survey was carried out by Sharq center (N=1000).
191. Author interview with Vadim Nazarov, OSCE, Dushanbe, August 16, 2004. RFE's Web site cites the IRP claim of twenty thousand.
192. Author interviews with Muhiddin Kabiri, IRP deputy chairman, Dushanbe, March 2001 and January 2003.
193. The OSCE deemed the election better but flawed. A fully free election may have resulted in more votes for the IRP, but it would likely have been a small minority. A 1999 survey showed only 5 percent support for the IRP; Olimova (fn. 110), 6.
194. Naumkin (fn. 54), 209.
195. Akbar Turajonzoda, "Religion: The Pillar of Society," in Roald Sagdeev and Susan Eisenhower, eds., Central Asia: Conflict, Resolution, and Change (Chevy Chase, Md.: CPSS Press, 1995), 269.
196. Barnett Rubin, "Radical Islam in Central Asia," ASIP, May 7, 2003, www.asiasource.org/asip/rubin.cfm (accessed July 2007).
197. Naumkin (fn. 54), 215.
198. Olimova (fn. 110), 4.
199. Ibid., 7.
200. Author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116);
201. author interview with Seid Ibrahim Muhammadnazar, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, August 2005.
202. Author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116);
203. Khalid (fn. 54), 187.
204. Author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116);
205. author interview with Muhhamadzazar (fn. 124).
206. "Party Leader Denies Aim to Create Islamic State in Tajikistan," Tojikiston, Dushanbe, BBC, June 30, 2005.
207. Author interview with Kabiri, 2001 (fn. 116);
208. author interview with Muhammednazar (fn. 124).
209. Author interview with Muhammednazar (fn. 124).
210. Olimova (fn. 110), 7.
211. Author interview with Kabiri, 2001 (fn. 116).
212. Unlike the IRP, the three secular democratic parties competing did not pass the 5 percent threshold. Republic of Tajikistan Parliamentary Elections: Election Observation Mission Final Report (Warsaw: OSCE/ ODIHR, May 2005), 21.
213. Author interview with Nuri (fn. 110);
214. author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116).
215. Interviw with Rajab Mirzo, journalist, Dushanbe, August 15, 2002;
216. Rotar (fn. 112).
217. Author interview with IRP activist, Soghd, Tajikistan, January 2003.
218. Bayram Balci, "Between Sunnism and Shiism: Islam in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan," Central Asian Survey 23 (June 2004), 208.
219. Svante Cornell, "The Politicization of Islam in Azerbaijan" (Washington, D.C.: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2006), 60.
220. Jahan Aliyeva, "Religion Emerges as an Issue for Some Parliamentary Candidates in Azerbaijan," November 2, 2005, www.eurasianet.org (accessed November 2005).
221. Arif Yunusov, Islam in Azerbaijan (Baku: Friedrich Ebert Foundation, 2004), 185;
222. Raoul Motika, "Islam in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan," Archives de Sciences Sociales des Religions 115 (July-September 2001), 6.
223. Communications with journalists and U.S. embassy officials, Baku, June 2005, May 2007.
224. Author interviews with Rafiq Aliev, head of state committee on religious affairs, Baku, Azerbaijan, January 2005, and Robin Seaward, OSCE representative, Baku, January 2006.
225. Communication with member of Azeri human rights NGO, Baku, January 2006.
226. Balci (fn. 136), 214-15.
227. Author, Azerbaijan survey, 2006.
228. Author interview with group of IPA activists, Ganja, Azerbaijan, June 2005.
229. Ibid.
230. Ibid.
231. Ibid.
232. Trendaz, July 26, 2007, www.trendaz.com/ index.shtml?show=news&newsid=963354&lang=EN (accessed July 2007).
233. Author interview with IPA activists (fn. 145).
234. "Polls Show Azerbaijan as a Tolerant Country," Zerkalo, Baku, BBC, February 12, 2005, 12.
235. Rotar (fn. 112), 119.
236. Communication with activist, human rights NGO, Baku, August 2005.
237. "Azerbaijan Islamic Party Vows to Expand Anti-Israeli Demonstrations," www.rferl.org/newsline/2006/08/070806.asp; and author communication with Nariman Qasimoglu, Islamic scholar and vice-chairman for religious affairs, Popular Front, Baku, Azerbaijan, January 2006.
238. Author interview with Rovshan, activist in the religious organization, Ahli Beit, Ganja, August 2005; author interview with IPA activists (fn. 145).
239. Author interview with NGO member/human rights worker, Khachmaz, Azerbaijan, August 2005.
240. On ideas and the Civil Rights Act, see Robert Lieberman, "Ideas, Institutions, and Political Order: Explaining Political Change," American Political Science Review 96, no. 4 (December 2002), 709.
241. Lyall (fn. 5), 382-88.
242. Timur Kuran, "Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (October 1991).
243. Bunce and Wolchik (fn. 5), 14-15.
244. Ibid., 283-304.
245. Tucker (fn. 5), 23.
246. Wiktorowicz (fn. 2);
247. Wickham (fn. 2).
248. Lyall (fn. 5) refers to this as a problem of "organizational culture" (p. 382).
249. ICG (fn. 16).
250. On societal views about religion and politics, see Kathleen Collins, "Islamic Revivalism and Societal Views on Democracy and Political Islam in Central Asia" (Paper presented at the Association for the Study of Nationalities Convention, New York, March 23-25, 2006).