Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone

Energy Policy

Volumn 35, Issue 11, 2007, Pages 5370-5383

  Reilly, J ^a   Paltsev, S ^a   Felzer, B ^b   Wang, X ^a   Kicklighter, D ^b   Melillo, J ^b   Prinn, R ^a   Sarofim, M ^a   Sokolov, A ^a   Wang, C ^a  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b ECOSYSTEMS CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Agriculture; Climate change; Ozone damage

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GAS EMISSIONS; OZONE; PUBLIC POLICY; VEGETATION;

GLOBAL ECONOMIC EFFECT; OZONE DAMAGE;

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS;

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CROP YIELD; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; GLOBAL ECONOMY; OZONE; PASTURE; PRODUCTIVITY; REGIONAL ECONOMY;

EID: 34548714104     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.040     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Adams R.M., Hamilton S.A., and McCarl B.A. The benefits of pollution control: the case of ozone and US agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68 (1986) 886-893
2. Adams R.M., Rosenzweig C., Peart R.M., Richie J.T., McCarl B.A., Glyer J.D., Curry R.B., Jones J.W., Boote K.J., and Allen L.H. Global climate change and US agriculture. Nature 345 (1990) 219-224
3. Alig R.J., Adams D.M., and McCarl B.A. Projecting impacts of global climate change on the US forest and agriculture sectors and carbon budgets. Forest Ecology and Management 169 (2003) 3-14
4. Babiker, M., Reilly, J., Mayer, M., Eckaus, R., Sue Wing, I., Hyman, R., 2001. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis Model: Revisions, Sensitivities, and Comparisons of Results. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report 71, Cambridge, MA.
5. Babiker M., Jacoby H., Reilly J., and Reiner D. The evolution of a climate regime: Kyoto to Marrakech. Environmental Science and Policy 5 3 (2002) 195-206
6. Babiker M., Reilly J., and Viguier L. Is emissions trading always beneficial?. Energy Journal 25 2 (2004) 33-56
7. Darwin R., Tsigas M., Lewandrowski J., and Raneses A. Land use and cover in ecological economics. Ecological Economics 17 (1996) 157-181
8. Dimaranan B., and McDougall R. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base (2002), Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN
9. Felzer B.S.F., Kicklighter D.W., Melillo J.M., Wang C., Zhuang Q., and Prinn R.G. Ozone effects on net primary production and carbon sequestration in the conterminous United States using a biogeochemistry model. Tellus 56B (2004) 230-248
10. Felzer B., Reilly J., Melillo J., Kicklighter D., Sarofim M., Wang C., Prinn R., and Zhuang Q. Future effects of ozone on carbon sequestration and climate change policy using a global biogeochemical model. Climatic Change 73 (2005) 345-373
11. Forest C.E., Stone P.H., Sokolov A.P., Allen M.R., and Webster M. Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science 295 (2002) 113-117
12. Forest C.E., Stone P.H., and Sokolov A.P. Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings. Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006) L01705
13. Gitay H., Brown S., Easterling W., and Jallow B. Ecosystems and their goods and services. In: McCarthy J., Canziani O., Leary N., Dokken D., and White K. (Eds). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (2001), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK (Chapter 5)
14. Izauralde C., Rosenberg N.J., Brown R.A., and Thomson A.M. Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States. Part II. Regional agriculture production in 2030 and 2095. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117 (2003) 97-122
15. 2 emissions limits: economic adjustments and the distribution of burdens. Energy Journal 18 (1997) 31-58
16. 2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: a comparison study of four terrestrial biosphere models. Tellus 51B (1999) 343-366
17. Lawrence M.G., Crutzen P.J., Rasch P.J., Eaton B.E., and Mahowald N.M. A model for studies of tropospheric photochemistry: description, global distributions, and evaluation. Journal of Geophysical Research 104 (1999) 26245-26277
18. 2 concentration. Science 312 (2006) 1918-1921
19. Mahowald N.M., Rasch P.J., Eaton B.E., Whittlestone S., and Prinn R.G. Transport of 222 radon to the remote troposphere using the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry and assimilated winds from ECMWF and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/NCAR. Journal of Geophysical Research 102 (1997) 28139-28152
20. Mayer, M., Hyman, R., Harnisch, J., Reilly, J., 2000. Emissions inventories and time trends for greenhouse gases and other pollutants, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Technical Note 1, Cambridge, MA.
21. McFarland J.R., Reilly J.M., and Herzog H.J. Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information. Energy Economics 26 4 (2004) 685-707
22. 2, climate and land-use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 1 (2001) 183-206
23. Melillo J.M., McGuire A.D., Kicklighter D.W., Moore III B., Vorosmarty C.J., and Schloss A.L. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production. Nature 363 (1993) 234-240
24. Mendelsohn R., Nordhaus W.D., and Shaw D. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review 84 4 (1994) 753-771
25. Ollinger S.V., Aber J., and Reich P. Simulating ozone effects on forest productivity: interactions among leaf-, canopy-, and stand-level processes. Ecological Applications 7 4 (1997) 1237-1251
26. Paltsev, S., Reilly, J.M., Jacoby, H.D., Ellerman, A.D., Tay, K.H., 2003. Emissions Trading to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States: The McCain-Lieberman Proposal. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report 97, Cambridge, MA.
27. Paltsev, S., Reilly, J.M., Jacoby, H.D., Eckaus, R.S., McFarland, J., Sarofim, M., Asadoorian, M., Babiker, M., 2005. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report 125, Cambridge, MA.
28. In: Parry M.L., Carter T.R., and Konijn N.T. (Eds). The Impact of Climate Variations on Agriculture: Volume 1: Assessments in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions (1988), Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
29. In: Parry M.L., Carter T.R., and Konijn N.T. (Eds). The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture: Volume 2 Assessment in Semi-arid Regions (1988), Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
30. Parry M., Rosenzweig C., Iglesis A., Fischer G., and Livermore M. Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S51-S67
31. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., and Fischer G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14 (2004) 53-67
32. Prinn R., Jacoby H., Sokolov A., Wang C., Xiao X., Yang Z., Eckaus R., Stone P., Ellerman D., Melillo J., Fitzmaurice J., Kicklighter D., Holian G., and Liu Y. Integrated global system model for climate policy assessment: feedbacks and sensitivity studies. Climatic Change 41 (1999) 469-546
33. Prinn, R., Reilly, J., Sarofim, M., Wang, C., Felzer, B., 2007. Effects of air pollution control on climate. In: Schlesinger, M. (Ed.), Integrated Assessment of Human-induced Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK (in press), and MIT Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report No. 118, January 2005, Cambridge, MA.
34. Ramankutty N., and Foley J.A. Characterizing patterns of global land use: an analysis of global croplands data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 12 (1998) 667-685
35. Ramankutty N., and Foley J.A. Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13 (1999) 997-1027
36. Rasch P.J., Mahowald N.M., and Eaton B.E. Representations of transport, convection, and the hydrologic cycle in chemical transport models: implications for the modeling of shortlived and soluble species. Journal of Geophysical Research 102 (1997) 28127-28138
37. Reich P.B. Quantifying plant response to ozone: a unifying theory. Tree Physiology 3 (1987) 63-91
38. In: Reilly (Ed). Agriculture: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (2002), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
39. Reilly J., and Hohmann N. Climate change and agriculture: the role of international trade. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 83 (1993) 306-312
40. Reilly J., and Schimmelpfennig D. Agricultural impact assessment, vulnerability, and the scope for adaptation. Climatic Change 43 4 (1999) 745-788
41. Reilly J., Prinn R., Harnisch J., Fitzmaurice J., Jacoby H.D., Kicklighter D., Melillo J., Stone P., Sokolov A., and Wang C. Multi-gas assessment of the Kyoto Protocol. Nature 401 (1999) 549-555
42. 2 greenhouse gases and carbon sinks. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 7 4 (2002) 217-229
43. Reilly J., Tubiello F., McCarl B., Abler D., Darwin R., Fuglie K., Hollinger S., Izaurralde C., Jagtap S., Jones J., Mearns L., Ojima D., Paul E., Paustian K., Riha S., Rosenberg N., and Rosenzweig C. US agriculture and climate change: new results. Climatic Change 57 (2003) 43-69
44. Rosenberg N.J. Towards An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: The MINK Study (1993), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston 173pp
45. Rosenzweig C., and Parry M.L. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367 (1994) 133-138
46. Sokolov, A.P., Schlosser, C.A., Dutkiewicz, S., Paltsev, S., Kicklighter, D.W., Jacoby, H.D., Prinn, R.G., Forest, C.E., Reilly, J., Wang, C., Felzer, B., Sarofim, M.C., Scott, J., Stone, P.H., Melillo, J.M., Cohen, J., 2005. The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation. MIT Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report 124, Cambridge, MA.
47. 2 in the United States. Tellus 51B (1999) 414-452
48. Tian H., Melillo J.M., Kicklighter D.W., Pan S., Liu J., McGuire A.D., and Moore B. Regional carbon dynamics in monsoon Asia and its implications for the global carbon cycle. Global and Planetary Change 37 (2003) 201-217
49. Tobey J., Reilly J., and Kane S. Economic implications of global climate change for world agriculture. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 17 (1992) 195-204
50. 2 and world food supply: a comment on "Food for Thought..." by Long et al. Science 312 (2006) 1918-1921. http://www.sciencedirect.com European Journal of Agronomy, online version, 〈wwww.sciencedirect.com〉.
51. Von Kuhlmann R., Lawrence M., Crutzen P., and Rasch P. A model for studies of tropospheric ozone and nonmethane hydrocarbons: model description and ozone results. Journal of Geophysical Reseach 108 (2003) 10.1029/2002JD002893
52. Wang, X., 2005. The economic impact of global climate and tropospheric ozone on world agricultural production. Master of Science Thesis, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (May).
53. Wang X., and Mauzerall D.L. Characterizing distributions of surface ozone and its impact on grain production in China, Japan and South Korea: 1990 and 2020. Atmospheric Environment 38 (2004) 4383-4402
54. Webster M.D., Babiker M., Mayer M., Reilly J.M., Harnisch J., Sarofim M.C., and Wang C. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models. Atmospheric Environment 36 22 (2002) 3659-3670
55. Webster M., Forest C., Reilly J., Babiker M., Kicklighter D., Mayer M., Prinn R., Sarofim M., Sokolov A., Stone P., and Wang C. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response. Climatic Change 62 (2003) 295-320
56. Westenbarger D., and Frisvold G. Agricultural exposure to ozone and acid precipitation. Atmospheric Environment 28 (1994) 2895-2907
57. Westenbarger D.V., and Frisvold G.B. Air pollution and farm-level crop yields: an empirical analysis of corn and soybeans. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 24 2 (1995) 156-165
58. Xiao X., Kicklighter D.W., Melillo J.M., McGuire A.D., Stone P.H., and Sokolov A.P. Linking a global terrestrial biogeochemical model and a 2-dimensional climate model: implications for the carbon budget. Tellus 49B (1997) 18-37