Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volumn 92, Issue 8, 2007, Pages 1014-1040

  Chang, Y H J ^a,b   Mosleh, A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUTE   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Cognitive; Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; Human reliability analysis; Performance influencing factors; Performance shaping factors

Indexed keywords

COGNITIVE SYSTEMS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; PROBABILISTIC LOGICS; RELIABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT;

DYNAMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT; HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; PERFORMANCE INFLUENCING FACTORS; PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS;

VALUE ENGINEERING;

EID: 33847372530     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.05.010     Document Type: Article

References (104)

1. Chang Y.H.J., and Mosleh A. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents-part 1 overview of the IDAC model (in press). Reliab Eng Syst Saf (2006)
2. Chang Y.H.J., and Mosleh A. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents-part 4 IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response (submitted). Reliab Eng Syst Saf (2006)
3. Chang Y.H.J., and Mosleh A. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents-part 5 dynamic probabilistic simulation of IDAC model (submitted). Reliab Eng Syst Saf (2006)
4. Chang Y.H.J., and Mosleh A. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents-part 3 IDAC operator response model (submitted). Reliab Eng Syst Saf (2006)
5. Swain AD, Guttmann HE. Handbook of human reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications. NUREG/CR-1278: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. 1983.
6. Woods D.D., Roth E.M., Pople Jr. H.E., and Embrey D. Cognitive environment simulation: an artificial intelligence system for human performance assessment (summary and overview). NUREG/CR-4862 (vol. 1) (1987), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC.
7. Lewis G.W. Critical incident stress and trauma in the workplace: recognition...response...recovery (1994), Accelerated Development Inc., Muncie, Indiana
8. Hollnagel E. Cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). 1 ed (1998), Elsevier, Amsterdam
9. Gertman D., Blackman H.S., Marble J., Byers J., Haney L.N., and Smith C. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method. NUREH/CR-6883 (2005), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC
10. Paris C.R., Salas E., and Cannon-Bowers J.A. Teamwork in multi-person systems: a review and analysis. Ergonomics 43 8 (2000) 1052-1075
11. Whitehead D. Recovery actions in PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) for the risk methods integration and evaluation program (RMIEP) (1987), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC.
12. Malone TB, Kirkpatrick M, Mallory K, Eike D, Johnson JH, Walker RW. Human factors evaluation of control room design and operator performance at Three Mile Island-2. 1979, NUREG/CR-1270, vol. 1. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
13. Reason J. Managing the risks of organizational accidents (1997), Ashgate Publishing Company
14. Hansen E. Emotional processes: engendered by poetry and prose reading (1986), ACTA UNIVERSITATIS STOCKHOLMIENSIS: Stockholm Studies in Psychology IV, Sweden
15. Bach M. Stream of consciousness: affective content. Dissertation abstracts international, 1974.
16. Sträter O. Evaluation of human reliability on the basis of operational experience, in economics and social sciences (2000), The Munich Technical University
17. Kirwan B. A guide to practical human reliability assessment (1994), Taylor & Francis, London
18. Kirwan B. The development of a nuclear chemical plant human reliability management approach: HRMS and JHEDI. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 56 (1997) 107-135
19. Barnes V., Haagensen B., and O'Hara J. The human performance evaluation process: a resource for reviewing the identification and resolution of human performance problems. NUREG/CR-6751 (2001), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC.
20. Shorrock S.T., and Kirwan B. Development and application of a human error identification tool for air traffic control. Appl Ergon 33 4 (2002) 319-336
21. Manktelow K. Reasoning and thinking (1999), Psychology Press Ltd.
22. Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185 (1974) 1124-1131
23. Baron J. Thinking and deciding. 3 ed (2000), Cambridge University Press, New York
24. Barriere M.T., Wreathall J., Cooper S.E., Bley D.C., Luckas W.J., and Ramey-Smith A. Multidisciplinary framework for human reliability analysis with an application to errors of commission and dependencies. NUREG/CR-6265 (1995), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC.
25. Williams J. HEART: a proposed method for assessing and reducing human error. In: The 9th advances in reliability technology symposium. University of Bradford, 1986.
26. Gaillard A.W.K. Comparing the concepts of mental load and stress. Ergonomics 36 9 (1993) 991-1005
27. Kaplan R.M., and Saccuzzo D.P. Psychological testing: principles, applications, and issues. 2 ed (1989), Brooks/Cole Pub. Co., Pacific Grove, California
28. Kim B., and Bishu R.R. On assessing operator response time in human reliability analysis (HRA) using a possible fuzzy regression mode. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 52 (1996) 27-34
29. Sasou K., Takano K.i., and Yoshimura S. Modeling of a team's decision-making process. Saf Sci 24 1 (1996) 13-33
30. In: Svenson O., and Maule A.J. (Eds). Time pressure and stress in human judgment and decision making (1993), Plenum Press, New York 333
31. Rastegary H., and Landy F.J. The interaction among time urgency, uncertainty, and time pressure. In: Svenson O., and Maule A.J. (Eds). Time pressure and stress in human judgement and decision making (1993), Plenum Press, New York
32. Wickens C.D. Engineering psychology and human performance. 2nd ed (1992), Harper Collins Publishers
33. Maule AJ, Maillet-Hausswirth P. The mediating effects of subjective appraisal cognitive control and changes in affect in determining the effects of time pressure on risk-taking. In: 15th research conference on subjective probability, Utility and Decision Making (SPUDM15). 1995. Jerusalem.
34. Fagerjord M. Human reliability assessment. Department of production and quality engineering (1999), Norwegian University of Science and Technology 124
35. Lawton R. Not working to rule: understanding procedural violations at work. Saf Sci 28 2 (1998) 77-95
36. Julius J.A., Jorgenson E.J., Parry G.W., and Mosleh A. Procedure for the analysis of errors of commission during non-power modes of nuclear power plant operation. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 53 (1996) 139-154
37. In: Huey B.M., and Wickens C.D. (Eds). Workload transition: implications for individual and team performance (1993), Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, Washington DC.
38. United States, Report of the President's commission on the accident at the Three Mile Island 1979. 1980.
39. Park J., Jung W.D., and Ha J. Development of the step complexity measure for emergency operating procedures using entropy concept. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 71 2 (2001) 115-130
40. Nixon H.L. The small group. Prentice-Hall Series. In: Smelser N.J. (Ed). Sciology. 1 ed (1979), Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood, NJ
41. Embrey D.E., Humphreys P., Rosa E.A., Kirwan B., and Rea K. SLIM-MAUD: an approach to assessing human error probabilities using expert judgment. NUREG/CR-3518 (1984), Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC.
42. Kirwan B. Human reliab assess. In: Wilson J.R., and Nigel Corlett E. (Eds). Evaluation of human work: a practical ergonomics methodology (1990), Taylor & Francis Inc., Bristal, PA 706-754
43. Dougherty E.M. Is human failure a stochastic process?. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 55 (1997) 209-215
44. Ornstein R. The roots of the self: unraveling the mystery of who we are (1993), HarperCollins Publishers, New York
45. In: Dictionaries T.A.H. (Ed). The American heritage dictionary of the english language. 4 ed (2000), Houghton Mifflin Co., Boston
46. Tupes E.C., and Christal R.E. Recurrent personality factors based on trait ratings. Journal of Personality 60 2 (1992) 225-251
47. Woods D.D., Roth E.M., Pople Jr. H.E., and Embrey D. Cognitive environment simulation: an artificial intelligence system for human performance assessment (Cognitive Reliability Analysis Technique). NUREG/CR-4862 (Vol. 3) (1987), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC.
48. Freedman J.L., and Edwards D.R. Time pressure, task performance, and enjoyment. In: McGrath J.E. (Ed). The social psychology of time (1988), Sage Publications, Newbury Park
49. Decortis F. Operator strategies in a dynamic environment in relation to an operator model. Ergonomics 36 11 (1993) 1291-1304
50. Steers R.M., and Porter L.W. Motivation and work behavior. McGraw-Hill series in management. 2 ed (1979), McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing, New York
51. Brief A.P. Attitudes in and around organizations. In: Whetten D. (Ed). Foundations for organizational science: a Sage publication series (1998), SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, California
52. Eagly A.H., and Chaiken S. The psychologies of attitudes (1993), Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Fort Worth, TX
53. Triandis H.C. Attitude and attitude change. Encyclopedia of human biology (1991), Academic Press, San Diego, CA 485-496
54. Borman W.C., Hedge J.W., Ferstl K.L., Kaufman J.D., Farmer W.L., and Bearden R.M. Current directions and issues in personnel selection and classification. Research Methods in Personnel and Human Resources Management 22 (2003) 287-355
55. German D., Hallbert B.P., Parrish M.W., Sattision M.B., Brownson D., and Tortorelli J.P. Review of findings for human error contribution to risk in operating events. INEEL/EXT-01-01166 (2001), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho Falls
56. Connon-Bowers J.A., and Salas E. Reflections on shared cognition. Journal of Organizational Behavior 22 (2001) 195-202
57. Marcil I, Vincent A. Fatigue in air traffic controllers: literature review. TP-13457: Transportation Development Centre of Transport Canada. 2000.
58. Rosekind M.R., and Gander P.H. Fatigue in operational setting: examples from the aviation environment. Human Factors 36 2 (1994) 327-338
59. Wylie C.D., Shultz T., Miller J.C., Mitler M.M., and Mackie R.R. Commercial motor vehicle driver fatigue alertness study. FHWA-MC-97-002 (1996), Federal Aviation Administration of US Department of Transportation, Washington DC
60. Wickens C.D., Gordon S.E., and Liu Y. An introduction to human factors engineering (1997), Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc., New York
61. Mullen B., and Copper C. The relation between group cohesiveness and performance: an integration. Psychological Bulletin 115 2 (1994) 210-227
62. Hoegl M., and Gemuenden H.G. Teamwork quality and the success of innovative projects: a theoretical concept and empirical evidence. Organization Science 12 4 (2001) 435-449
63. Homans G.C. The human group (1950), Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, Inc., New York
64. Crosbie P.V. Interactions in small group (1975), Macmillan Publishing Co., New York
65. Rognin L., and Blanquart J.-P. Human communication, mutual arareness and system dependability. Lesson learnt from air-traffic control field studies. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 71 (2001) 327-336
66. Paradise M., Unger P.M., Haas P.M., and Terranova M. Development of the NRC's human performance investigation process (HPIP). NUREG/CR-5455 (1993), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC
67. Paglis L.L., and Green S.G. Leadership self-efficacy and managers' motivation for leading change. Journal of Organizational Behavior 23 2 (2002) 215-235
68. Kecklund L.J., and Svenson O. Human errors and work performance in a nuclear power plant control room: association with work-related factors and behavioral coping. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 56 (1997) 5-15
69. Cook R.A., and Burack E.H. Measuring norms and expectations with the OCI, Organizational culture inventory, Level V manual (1987), Human Synergistics, Chicago, Illinois
70. IAEA, Safety Culture. IAEA Safety Series No 75-INSAG 4, Vienna (A): International Atomic Energy Agency. 1991.
71. Sorensen J.N. Safety culture: a survey of the state-of-the-art. NUREG-1756 (2002), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC.
72. Flin R., Mearns K., O'Connor P., and Bryden R. Measuring safety climate: identifying the common features. Safety Science 34 1-3 (2000) 177-192
73. Rundmo T. Safety climate, attitudes and risk perception in Norsk hydro. Safety Science 34 1-3 (2000) 47-59
74. Bourrier M. Elements for designing a self-correcting organization: examples from nuclear power plants. In: Hale A.R., and Baram M. (Eds). Safety management: the challenge of change (1998), Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Inc., Netherlands 133-146
75. Williamson A.M., Feyer A.-M., and Cairns D.R. Industry differences in accident causation. Saf Sci 24 1 (1996) 1-12
76. National Transportation Safety Board, In-Flight Electrical System Failure and Loss of Control, Jet Express Services, Raytheon (Beechcraft) Super King Air 200, N81PF, Near Strasburg, Colorado, January 27, 2001. 2003, NTSB/AAR-03/01; NTIS/PB2003-910401, Washington DC: National Transportation Safety Board.
77. Roth E. Crew performance in complex simulated emergencies: what simulator data can tell us about contributors to human reliability and human error. In: Workshop on human reliability models: theoretical and practical challenges. Stockholm, Sweden: 1994, August 22-24, 1994.
78. Hughes D. Incidents reveal mode confusion. Aviation Week & Space Technology 142 5 (1995) 56
79. Phillips E.H. NTSB: mode confusion poses safety threat. Aviation Week & Space Technology 142 5 (1995) 63-64
80. Chang Y.H., and Mosleh A. ADS: a computer program for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. International topical meeting on probabilistic safety assessment (2002), American Nuclear Society, Detroit, Michigan October 6-9
81. Chang Y.H., and Mosleh A. ADS-IDACrew: dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. PSAM 5-probabilistic safety assessment and management November 27-December 1. 2000 (2000), JapanUniversal Academy Press, Inc., Osaka
82. Chang Y.H., and Mosleh A. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents (ADS-IDACrew). CTRS-B6-06 (1999), Center for Technology Risk Studies, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
83. Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973) 207-232
84. Reason J. Human error (1990), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
85. Cowen E.L. The influence of varying degrees of psychological stress on problem-solving rigidity. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 47 (1952) 144-158
86. Wickens C.D., Stokes A., Barnett B., and Hyman F. The effects of stress on pilot judgment in a MIND simulator. In: Svenson O., and Maule A.J. (Eds). Time pressure and stress in human judgement and decision making (1993), Plenum Press, New York 271-292
87. Janis I.L., and Mann L. Decision making (1977), The Free Press, New York
88. Hart S.G., and Bortolussi M.R. Pilot errors as a source of workload. Human Factors 26 5 (1984) 545-556
89. Mosneron-Dupin F., Reer B., Heslinga G., Strater O., Gerdes V., Saliou G., et al. Human-centered modeling in human reliability analysis: some trends based on case studies. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 58 3 (1997) 249-274
90. Yates F.J., and Stone E.F. Risk appraisal. In: Yates F.J. (Ed). Risk taking behavior (1992), Wiley, Chichester 49-85
91. Hsueh K.-S. An integrated simulation model for plant/operator behavior in accident conditions. Materials and nuclear engineering (1992), University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
92. Chang YH, Mosleh A. ADS-IDACrew: an integrated system for performing dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. in: Society for risk analysis 2000 annual meeting "Applications of Risk Analysis in Industry and Government". 2000. Arlington, Virginia: December 3-6, 2000.
93. Laumann K., Braarud P.Ø., and Svengren H. The task complexity experiment 2003/2004. HWR-758 (2005), Instututt for energiteknikk, Halden, Norway
94. Svenson O. A decision theoretic approach to an accident sequence: when feedwater and auxiliary feedwater fail in a nuclear power plant. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 59 (1998) 243-252
95. Wickens C.D., and Hollands J.G. Engineering psychology and human performance. 3rd ed (1999), Prentice-Hall Inc., Englewood, NJ
96. Yuzuk R.P. The assessment of employee morale: a comparison of two measures (1961), The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
97. Herzberg F., Mausner B., Peterson R.O., and Capwell D.F. Job attitudes: review of research and opinion (1957), Psychology Service of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
98. Fink S.L. High commitment workplaces (1992), Quorum Book, New York
99. Seaburg DJ, Rounds JB, Dawis RV, Lofquist LH. Values as second order needs. in: Annual Meeting of the American Psychological Association. Washington DC: August 1976.
100. Schmitt N., and Chan D. Personal selection-a theoretical approach. In: Whetten D. (Ed). Fundation for Organizational Science (1998), SAGE Publications, Inc., California
101. Co E.L., Gregory K.B., Johnson J.M., and Rosekind M. Crew factors in flight operations XI: a survey of fatigue factors in regional airline operations. NASA/TM-1999-208799 (1999), Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA
102. O'Hara J., Brown W.S., Lewis P.M., and Persensky J.J. Human-system interface design review guidelines. NUREG-0700, Rev. 2 (1996), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC.
103. Jensen F.V. Bayesian networks and decision graphs (2001), Springer, New York
104. Pearl J. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference. 2 ed (2001), Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Franciso, California