Biodiversity loss under existing land use and climate change: An illustration using northern South America

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 16, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 197-204

  Higgins, Paul A T ^a,b,c  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c American Meteorological Society   (United States)

Author keywords

Biodiversity; Biological impact; Climate change; Inter Tropical Convergence Zone; Land use; Net primary productivity; Nonlinear climate response; South America; Species richness

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE; LAND USE CHANGE; NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION; SPECIES RICHNESS;

BRAZIL; GUYANA SHIELD; SOUTH AMERICA; VENEZUELA;

EID: 33847209924     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2006.00278.x     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Balmford, A., Moore, J., Brooks, T., Burgess, N., Hansen, L., Williams, P. & Rahbek, C. (2001) Conservation conflicts across Africa. Science, 291, 2616-2619.
2. Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Lee, S.E. & Woodward, F.I. (1997) Contrasting physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in climate change simulations. Nature, 387, 796-799.
3. Bryden, H.L., Longworth, H.R. & Cunningham, S.A. (2005) Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25 N. Nature, 438, 655-657.
4. CIESIN, IFPRI, WRI (2000) Gridded population of the world (GPW), version 2. CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY (see http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/gpw).
5. Clinebell, R., Phillips, O., Gentry, A., Stark, N. & Zuuring, H. (1995) Prediction of neotropical tree and liana species richness from soil and climatic data. Biodiversity and Conservation, 4, 56-90.
6. Connell, J.H. (1978) Diversity in tropical forests and coral reefs. Science, 199, 1302-1310.
7. Daily, G., Ehrlich, P. & Sanchez-Azofeifa, G. (2001) Countryside biogeography: Use of human-dominated habitats by the avifauna of southern Costa Rica. Ecological Applications, 11, 1-13.
8. De Oliveira, A. & Daly, D. (1999) Geographic distribution of tree species occurring in the region of Manaus, Brazil: Implications for regional diversity and conservation. Biodiversity and Conservation, 8, 1245-1259.
9. Delire, C. & Foley, J.A. (1999) Evaluating the performance of a land surface ecosystem model with biophysical measurements from contrasting environments. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 104, 16, 895-16, 816, 909.
10. Dukes, J.S., Chiariello, N.R., Cleland, E., Moore, L.A., Shaw, M.R., Thayer, S., Tobeck, T., Mooney, H.A. & Field, C.B. (2005) Responses of grassland production to single and multiple global environmental changes. PLoS Biology, 3, e319.
11. Estrada, A., CoatesEstrada, R. & Meritt, D. (1997) Anthropogenic landscape changes and avian diversity at Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. Biodiversity and Conservation, 6, 19-43.
12. Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S. & Haxeltine, A. (1996) An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes, terrestrial carbon balance, and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10, 603-628.
13. Foley, J.A., DeFries, R., Asner, G.P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S.R., Chapin, F.S., Coe, M.T., Daily, G.C., Gibbs, H.K., Helkowski, J.H., Holloway, T., Howard, E.A., Kucharik, C.J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N. & Snyder, P.K. (2005) Global consequences of land use. Science, 309, 570-574.
14. Gentry, A. (1988) Tree species richness of upper Amazonian forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 85, 156-159.
15. Global Soil Data Task Group (2000) Global soil data products, CD-ROM (IGBP-DIS). Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, TN (http://www.daac.ornl.gov).
16. Guayana Shield Conservation Priority Setting Workshop (2002) Results. Paramaribo, Suriname. http://www.guayanashield.org
17. Higgins, P.A.T. & Harte, J. (2006) Biophysical and biogeochemical responses to climate change depend on dispersal and migration. Bioscience, 56, 407-417.
18. Higgins, P.A.T. & Schneider, S.H. (2005) Long-term potential ecosystem responses to greenhouse gas-induced thermohaline circulation collapse. Global Change Biology, 11, 699-709.
19. Higgins, P.A.T. & Vellinga, M. (2004) Ecosystem responses to abrupt climate change: Teleconnections, scale and the hydrological cycle. Climatic Change, 64, 127-142.
20. Huston, M. (1979) A general hypothesis of species diversity. The American Naturalist, 113, 81-101.
21. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
22. Johns, T.C., Gregory, J.M., Ingram, W.J., Johnson, C.E., Jones, A., Lowe, J.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Roberts, D.L., Sexton, D.M.H., Stevenson, D.S., Tett, S.F.B. & Woodage, M.J. (2003) Anthropogenic climate change for 1860-2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Climate Dynamics, 20, 583-612.
23. 2 enrichment. Ecological Applications, 10, 1590-1619.
24. Kucharik, C.J., Foley, J.A., Delire, C., Fisher, V.A., Coe, M.T., Lenters, J.D., Young-Molling, C., Ramankutty, N., Norman, J.M. & Gower, S.T. (2000) Testing the performance of a dynamic global ecosystem model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 14, 795-825.
25. Ledru, M., Mourguiart, P., Ceccantini, G., Turcq, B. & Sifeddine, A. (2002) Tropical climates in the game of two hemispheres revealed by abrupt climatic change. Geology, 30, 275-278.
26. 14Cyr ago: Late Quaternary tropical vegetation dynamics. Journal of Quaternary Science, 17, 113-129.
27. Mayle, F., Burbridge, R. & Killeen, T. (2000) Millennial-scale dynamics of southern Amazonian rain forests. Science, 290, 2291-2294.
28. McLaughlin, J., Hellmann, J., Boggs, C. & Ehrlich, P. (2002) Climate change hastens population extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 99, 6070-6074.
29. Mittelbach, G.G., Steiner, C.F., Scheiner, S.M., Gross, K.L., Reynolds, H.L., Waide, R.B., Willig, M.R., Dodson, S.I. & Gough, L. (2001) What is the observed relationship between species richness and productivity? Ecology, 82, 2381-2396.
30. Mooney, H.A., Canadell, J., Chapin, F.S.I., Ehleringer, J.R., Korner, C., McMurtrie, R.E., Parton, W.J., Pitelka, L.F. & Schulze, E.D. (1999) Ecosystem physiology responses to global change. The terrestrial biosphere and global change (ed. by B. Walker, W. Steffen, J. Canadell and J. Ingram), pp. 141-189. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
31. New, M., Hulme, M. & Jones, P. (1999) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate, 12, 829-856.
32. 2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 18, 052-18, 056.
33. 2 - do photosynthetic and productivity data from FACE experiments support early predictions? New Phytologist, 162, 253-280.
34. Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
35. Pitman, N.C.A., Terborgh, J., Silman, M.R. & Nunez, P. (1999) Tree species distributions in an upper Amazonian forest. Ecology, 80, 2651-2661.
36. Pitman, N., Jørgensen, P., Williams, R., León-Yánez, S. & Valencia, R. (2002a) Extinction-rate estimates for a modern neotropical flora. Conservation Biology, 16, 1427-1431.
37. Pitman, N.C.A., Terborgh, J., Silman, M.R., Nunez, P., Neill, D.A., Ceron, C.E., Palacios, W.A. & Aulestia, M. (2002b) A comparison of tree species diversity in two upper Amazonian forests. Ecology, 83, 3210-3224.
38. Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J.A. (1998) Characterizing patterns of global land use: An analysis of global croplands data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 12, 667-685.
39. Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J.A. (1999) Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 13, 997-1027.
40. Root, T.L., Price, J.T., Hall, K.R., Schneider, S.H., Rosenzweig, C. & Pounds, J.A. (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421, 57-60.
41. Rosenzweig, M.L. (1995) Species diversity in space and time. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
42. Sala, O.E., Chapin, F.S., Armesto, J.J., Berlow, E., Bloomfield, J., Dirzo, R., Huber-Sanwald, E., Huenneke, L.F., Jackson, R.B., Kinzig, A., Leemans, R., Lodge, D.M., Mooney, H.A., Oesterheld, M., Poff, N.L., Sykes, M.T., Walker, B.H., Walker, M. & Wall, D.H. (2000) Biodiversity -global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science, 287, 1770-1774.
43. 2. Science, 298, 1987-1990.
44. UNEP and WCMC (2002) World atlas of biodiversity. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
45. Vellinga, M. & Wood, R.A. (2002) Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change, 54, 251-267.
46. Voss, R. & Emmons, L. (1996) Mammalian diversity in Neotropical lowland rainforests: A preliminary assessment. Bulletin of the American Museum of Natural History, 230, 1-115.