African climate change: Taking the shorter route

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 87, Issue 10, 2006, Pages 1355-1366

  Washington, Richard ^a   Harrison, Mike ^b   Conway, Declan ^c   Black, Emily ^d   Challinor, Andrew ^d   Grimes, David ^d   Jones, Richard ^e   Morse, Andy ^f   Kay, Gillian ^a   Todd, Martin ^g  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^e Hadley Centre   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^g UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; METEOROLOGY; RAIN;

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; HUMAN ACTIVITY; SOUTH AFRICA;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 33751004406     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1355     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Amissah-Arthur, A., 2003: Targeting climate forecasts for agricultural applications in sub-Saharan Africa: Situating farmers in user-space. Climatic Change, 58, 73-92.
2. Archer, E. R. M., 2003: Identifying underserved end-user groups in the provision of climate information. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1525-1532.
3. Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, K. M. AchutaRao, P. J. Gleckler, B. D. Santer, J. M. Gregory, and W. M. Washington, 2005: Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans. Science, 309, 284-287.
4. Basher, R., C. Clark, M. Dilley, and M. Harrison, 2001: Coping with climate: A way forward. IRI Rep. CW/01/2, 31 pp.
5. Bharwani, S., M. Bithell, T. E. Downing, M. New, R. Washington, and G. Ziervogel, 2005: Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, Ser. B, 360 (1463), 2183-2194.
6. Boone, R. B., K. A. Galvin, M. B. Coughenour, J. W. Hudson, P. J. Weisberg, C. H. Vogeland, and J. E. Ellis, 2004: Ecosystem modeling adds value to a South African climate forecast. Climatic Change, 64, 317-340.
7. Burton, I., and M. van Aalst, 2004: Look before You Leap: A Risk Management Approach for Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into World Bank Operations. World Bank Monogr., Climate Change Team, The World Bank, 57 pp.
8. Challinor, A., T. R. Wheeler, J. M. Slingo, and D. Hemming, 2005a: Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, Ser. B, 360 (1463), 2085-2094.
9. Challinor, A., J. M. Slingo, T. R. Wheeler, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2005b: Probabilistic hindcasts of crop yield over western India. Tellus, 57A, 498-512.
10. Clay,, E., L. Bohn, E. Blanco de Armas, S. Kabanbe, and H. Tchale, 2003: Malawi and southern Africa: Climatic variability and economic performance. World Bank Disaster Risk Management Working Paper Series No. 7, 92 pp. [Available online at www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/ default/pdfs/malawi.pdf.]
11. Commission for Africa, 2005: Our common interest: Report of the Commission of Africa. 464 pp. [Available online at www.commissionforafrica.org/english/report/thereport/english/ 11-03-05_cr_report.pdf.]
12. Conway, D., 2005: From headwater tributaries to international river basin: Observing and adapting to climate change and variability in the Nile Basin. Global Environ. Change, 15, 99-114.
13. Cook, C., C. J. C. Reason, and B. C. Hewitson, 2004: Wet and dry spells within particularly wet and dry summers in the South African summer rainfall region. Climate Res., 26, 17-31.
14. Coyle, D., 2005: Overview, Africa: The impact of mobile phones. The Vodafone Policy Paper Series, No. 3, 70 pp.
15. Dai, A. G., P. J. Lamb, K. E. Trenberg, Hulme, M. P. D. Jones, and P. Xie, 2004: The recent Sahel drought is real. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1323-1331.
16. Desanker, P., and C. Magadza, 2001: Africa. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, J. J. McCarthy et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press, 487-531.
17. Dilley, M., 2000: Reducing vulnerability to climate variability in Southern Africa: The growing role of climate information. Climatic Change, 45, 63-73.
18. Downing, T. E., L. Ringius, M. Hulme, and D. Waughray, 1997: Adapting to climate change in Africa. Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Global Change, 2, 19-44.
19. Fischer, G., M. Shahi, F. N. Tubiello, and H. van Velhuizen, 2005: Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: An integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. B., 360, 2067-2083.
20. Friedman, R. M., 1993: Appropriating the Weather: Vilhelm Bjerknes and the Construction of a Modern Meteorology. Cornell University Press, 251 pp.
21. Friedman, R. M., Gadgil, S., P. R. S. Rao, and K. N. Rao, 2002: Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: Rainfed groundnut in southern India. Agric. Syst., 74, 431-457.
22. Gauci, A., 2005: Spatial maps: Targeting and mapping poverty. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Working Paper, 16 pp.
23. Giorgi, F., and Coauthors, 2001: Regional Climate Information - Evaluation and Projections. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T Hougton, Y. Ding, D. J Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 881 pp. [Available online at www.grida.no/climate/ipcc-tar/wgl/.]
24. Glantz, M. H, 1992: Global warming and environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa. Global Environ. Change, 2, 183-204.
25. Goddard, L., and M. Dilley, 2005: El Nino: Catastrophe or opportunity. J. Climate, 18, 651-665.
26. Hansen, J. W., and M. Indeje, 2004: Linking dynamic seasonal climate forecasts with crop simulations for maize yield prediction in semi-arid Kenya. Agric. For. Meteor., 125, 143-157.
27. Hansen, J. W.,, M. Dilley, L. Goddard, E. Ebrahimian, and P. Ericksen, 2004: Climate variability and the millenium development goal hunger target. IRI Tech. Rep. 4:04, 27 pp.
28. Hulme, M., E. M. Barrow, N. W. Arnell, P. A. Harrison, T. C. Johns, and T. E. Downing, 1999: Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability. Nature, 397, 688-691.
29. Hulme, M., R. Doherty, T. Ngara, M. New, and D. Lister, 2001: African climate change: 1900-2100. Climate Research, 17, 145-168.
30. Hulme, M., R. Doherty, T. Ngara, and D. Lister, 2005: Global warming and African climate change: A re-assessment. Climate Change in Africa, P. S. Low, Ed., Cambridge University Press, 29-40.
31. Ingram, K. T., M. C. Roncoli, and P. H. Kirshen, 2002: Opportunities and constraints for farmers of west Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agric. Syst., 74, 331-349.
32. Jury, M. R., 2002: Economic impacts of climate variability in South Africa and development of resource prediction models. J. Appl. Meteor., 41, 46-55.
33. Lamb, P. J., and R. A. Peppler, 1992: Further case-studies of tropical Atlantic surface atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with sub-Saharan drought. J. Climate, 5, 476-488.
34. Luseno, W. K., J. G. McPeak, C. B. Barrett, P. D. Little, and G. Gebru, 2003: Assessing the value of climate forecast information for pastoralists: Evidence from southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya. World Develop., 31, 1477-1494.
35. Morse, A. P., F. Doblas-Reyes, M. B. Hoshen, R. Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model. Tellus A, 57, 464-475.
36. Nicholson, S. E., and D. Entekhabi, 1986: The quasi-periodic behaviour of rainfall variability in Africa and its relationship to the Southern Oscillation. Arch. Meteor. Geophys. Bioklimatol., 34, 311-348.
37. Nicholson, S. E., and J. Kim, 1997: The relationship of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to African Rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 117-135.
38. O'Reilly, C. M., S. R. Alin, D. O. Plisnier, A. S. Cohen, and B. A. McKee, 2003: Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa. Nature, 424, 766-768.
39. Patt, A., and C. Gwata, 2002: Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: Examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Global Environ. Change, 12, 185-195.
40. Phillips, J. G., D. Deane, L. Unganai, and A. Chimeli, 2002: Implications of farm-level response to seasonal climate forecasts for aggregate grain production in Zimbabwe. Agric. Syst., 74, 351-369.
41. Population Reference Bureau, cited 2005: World population data sheet. 17 pp. [Available online at www.prb.org/pdf05/05WorldDataSheet_Eng.pdf.]
42. Ravallion, S., and M. Chen, 2004: How have the world's poorest fared since the early 1980s? The World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 19, No. 2, 141-169.
43. Segele, Z. T., and P. J. Lamb, 2005: Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 153-180.
44. Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen, 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614.
45. Tadross, M. A., B. C. Hewitson, and M. T. Usman, 2005: The interannual variability of the onset of the maize growing season over South Africa and Zimbabwe. J. Climate, 18, 3356-3372.
46. Tarhule, A., and P. J. Lamb, 2003: Climate research and seasonal forecasting for West Africans - Perceptions, dissemination, and use? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1741.
47. Thomas, D. S. G., M. Knight, and G. F. S. Wiggs, 2005: Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming. Nature, 435, 1218-1221.
48. Thomson, M., M. Indeje, S. Connor, M. Dilley, and N. Ward, 2003: Malaria early warning in Kenya and seasonal climate forecasts. Lancet, 362, 580-580.
49. UN, cited 2002: Implementing the millennium declaration. United Nations Department of Public Information, October 2002. [Available online at www.un.org/millenniumgoals/MDGs-FACT-SHEET1.pdf.]
50. UNCTAD, 2004: Economic development in Africa: Trade performance and commodity dependence. Publication UNCTAD/GDS/AFRICA/2003/1, 84 pp.
51. Verburg, P., R. E. Hecky, and H. Kling, 2003: Ecological consequences of a century of warming in Lake Tanganyika. Science, 301, 505-507.
52. Vogel, C., 2005: "Seven fat years and seven lean years"? Climate change and agriculture in Africa. Institute of Development Studies Bulletin, Vol. 36, No. 2, 30-35.
53. Washington, R., and T. E. Downing, 1999: Seasonal forecasting of African rainfall: Prediction, responses and household food security. Geogr. J., 165 (part 3), 255-274.
54. Washington, R., and Coauthors, 2004: African climate report: A report commissioned by the UK Government to review African climate science, policy and options for action. DFID/DEFRA, 45 pp.
55. Washington, R., T. E. Downing, M. New, G. Ziervogel, S. Bharwani, and M. Bithell, 2005: Climate outlooks and agent-based simulation of Adaptation in Africa. Tyndall Centre Final Rep. T2:32, 87 pp.
56. WMO, 2003: Twenty-first status report on implementation of the World Weather Watch: Forty years of World Weather Watch. WMO Rep. 957, 4 pp.
57. World Bank, 2000: Technical annex for a proposed credit of $72 million to the Republic of Kenya for an emergency power supply project. Report. T-7388-KE, 42 pp.
58. World Bank, 2001: Action Plan for the Reduction of Poverty (2001-2005) (PARPA). Strategy Document for the Reduction of Poverty and Promotion of Economic Growth, 18 pp.
59. World Bank, cited 2005: World development indicators. 440 pp. [Available online at www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2005/wditext/index2.htm.]
60. World Bank, and IMF, cited 2005: Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPQ Initiative - Statistical update. International Development Association and International Monetary Fund, 39 pp. [Available online at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDEBTDEPT/Resources/ HIPCStatUpdate200504042.pdf.]
61. Ziervogel, G., and T. E. Downing, 2004: Stakeholder networks: Improving seasonal climate forecast. Climatic Change, 65, 73-101.
62. Ziervogel, G., M. Bithell, R. Washington, and T. E. Downing, 2005: Agent-based social simulation: A method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers. Agric. Syst., 83, 1-26.