메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 360, Issue 1463, 2005, Pages 2085-2094

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

Author keywords

Climate change; Crop simulation models; Crop yield; High temperature stress; Model uncertainty

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL MODELING; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP YIELD; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; NUMERICAL MODEL; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 33645741143     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1740     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (57)

References (37)
  • 1
    • 13144283719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2
    • doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x
    • 2. New Phytol. 165, 351-372. (doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x.)
    • (2005) New Phytol , vol.165 , pp. 351-372
    • Ainsworth, E.A.1    Long, S.P.2
  • 2
    • 0043204237 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Carbon dioxide and temperature effects on evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of soybean
    • Allen Jr, L. H., Pan, D., Boote, K. J., Pickering, N. B. & Jones, J. W. 2003 Carbon dioxide and temperature effects on evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of soybean. Agron. J. 95, 1071-1081.
    • (2003) Agron. J , vol.95 , pp. 1071-1081
    • Allen Jr, L.H.1    Pan, D.2    Boote, K.J.3    Pickering, N.B.4    Jones, J.W.5
  • 3
    • 18544386239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of seasonal weather forecasts in crop yield modelling
    • Cantelaube, P. & Terres, J. M. 2005 Use of seasonal weather forecasts in crop yield modelling. Tellus 57A, 476-487.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 476-487
    • Cantelaube, P.1    Terres, J.M.2
  • 4
    • 0141761189 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the spatial correlation scale
    • TACSWA〉2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042〈0175
    • Challinor, A. J., Slingo, J. M., Wheeler, T. R., Craufurd, P. Q. & Grimes, D. I. F. 2003 Towards a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: determination of the spatial correlation scale. J. Appl. Meteorol. 42, 175-192. (doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042〈0175: TACSWA〉2.0.CO;2.)
    • (2003) J. Appl. Meteorol , vol.42 , pp. 175-192
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Slingo, J.M.2    Wheeler, T.R.3    Craufurd, P.Q.4    Grimes, D.I.F.5
  • 5
    • 2942746674 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops
    • doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002
    • Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T. R., Slingo, J. M., Craufurd, P. Q. & Grimes, D. I. F. 2004 Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 124, 99-120. (doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002.)
    • (2004) Agric. Forest Meteorol , vol.124 , pp. 99-120
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.R.2    Slingo, J.M.3    Craufurd, P.Q.4    Grimes, D.I.F.5
  • 6
    • 18544382055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic hindcasts of crop yield over western India
    • Challinor, A. J., Slingo, J. M., Wheeler, T. R. & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. 2005a Probabilistic hindcasts of crop yield over western India. Tellus 57A, 498-512.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 498-512
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Slingo, J.M.2    Wheeler, T.R.3    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.4
  • 7
    • 18544367774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 20056 Simulation of crop yields using the era40 re-analysis: Limits to skill and non-stationarity in weather-yield relationships
    • doi:10.1175/JAM2212.1
    • Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T. R., Slingo, J. M., Craufurd, P. Q. & Grimes, D. I. F. 20056 Simulation of crop yields using the era40 re-analysis: limits to skill and non-stationarity in weather-yield relationships. J. Appl. Meteorol. 44, 516-531. (doi:10.1175/JAM2212.1.)
    • J. Appl. Meteorol , vol.44 , pp. 516-531
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.R.2    Slingo, J.M.3    Craufurd, P.Q.4    Grimes, D.I.F.5
  • 8
    • 85020811367 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on the yield of an annual crop
    • In press
    • Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T. R. & Slingo, J. M. In press. Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on the yield of an annual crop. Agric. Forest Meteorol.
    • Agric. Forest Meteorol
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.R.2    Slingo, J.M.3
  • 9
    • 0033827827 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2, drought and temperature on the water relations and gas exchange of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) stands grown in controlled environment glass-houses
    • doi:10.1034/j.1399-3054.2000. 110111.x
    • 2, drought and temperature on the water relations and gas exchange of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) stands grown in controlled environment glass-houses. Physiol. Plantarum 110, 78-88. (doi:10.1034/j.1399-3054.2000. 110111.x.)
    • (2000) Physiol. Plantarum , vol.110 , pp. 78-88
    • Clifford, S.C.1    Stronach, I.M.2    Black, C.R.3    Singleton-Jones, P.R.4    Azam-Ali, S.N.5    Crout, N.M.J.6
  • 10
    • 14644438513 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?
    • Dessai, S. & Hulme, M. 2004 Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Climate Policy 4, 107-128.
    • (2004) Climate Policy , vol.4 , pp. 107-128
    • Dessai, S.1    Hulme, M.2
  • 11
    • 0036888897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 and drought on wheat: Testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions
    • doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00352-8
    • 2 and drought on wheat: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 93, 249-266. (doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00352-8.)
    • (2002) Agric. Ecosyst. Environ , vol.93 , pp. 249-266
    • Ewert, F.1
  • 13
    • 4143140792 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking dynamic seasonal climate forecasts with crop simulation for maize yield prediction in semi-arid kenya
    • doi:10.1016/j.agrformet. 2004.02.006
    • Hansen, J. W. & Indeje, M. 2004 Linking dynamic seasonal climate forecasts with crop simulation for maize yield prediction in semi-arid kenya. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 125, 143-157. (doi:10.1016/j.agrformet. 2004.02.006.)
    • (2004) Agric. Forest Meteorol , vol.125 , pp. 143-157
    • Hansen, J.W.1    Indeje, M.2
  • 14
    • 0033865059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scaling-up crop models for climatic variability applications
    • doi:10.1016/S0308-521X(00)00025-1
    • Hansen, J. W. & Jones, J. W. 2000 Scaling-up crop models for climatic variability applications. Agric. Syst. 65, 43-72. (doi:10.1016/S0308-521X(00)00025-1.)
    • (2000) Agric. Syst , vol.65 , pp. 43-72
    • Hansen, J.W.1    Jones, J.W.2
  • 17
    • 0038025698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055
    • Jones, P. G. & Thornton, P. K. 2003 The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environ. Change - Hum. Policy Dimensions 13, 51-59.
    • (2003) Global Environ. Change - Hum. Policy Dimensions , vol.13 , pp. 51-59
    • Jones, P.G.1    Thornton, P.K.2
  • 18
    • 0036321570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies
    • Katz, R. W. 2002 Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Climate Res. 20, 167-185.
    • (2002) Climate Res , vol.20 , pp. 167-185
    • Katz, R.W.1
  • 19
    • 0002638285 scopus 로고
    • 2: Effects on crop yield, water use and climate
    • doi:10.1016/0378-3774(83)90075-6
    • 2: effects on crop yield, water use and climate. Agric. Water Manag. 7, 55-72. (doi:10.1016/0378-3774(83)90075-6.)
    • (1983) Agric. Water Manag , vol.7 , pp. 55-72
    • Kimball, B.A.1    Idso, S.B.2
  • 21
    • 0041631357 scopus 로고
    • A discrete step in the technology trend for sorghum yields in parbhani, India
    • doi:10.1016/0168-1923(88)90074-3
    • Kulkarni, B. S. & Pandit, S. N. N. 1988 A discrete step in the technology trend for sorghum yields in parbhani, India. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 42, 156-165. (doi:10.1016/0168-1923(88)90074-3.)
    • (1988) Agric. Forest Meteorol , vol.42 , pp. 156-165
    • Kulkarni, B.S.1    Pandit, S.N.N.2
  • 22
    • 33645031235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggest models may seriously over-estimate future yields
    • doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1749
    • Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. & Morgan, P. B. 2005 Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggest models may seriously over-estimate future yields. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 2011-2020. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1749.)
    • (2005) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B , vol.360 , pp. 2011-2020
    • Long, S.P.1    Ainsworth, E.A.2    Leakey, A.3    Morgan, P.B.4
  • 23
    • 18544364909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a Northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance
    • Marletto, V., Zinoni, F., Criscuolo, L., Fontana, G., Marchesi, S., Morgillo, A., Soetendael, M. V., Ceotto, E. & Andersen, U. 2005 Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a Northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance. Tellus 57A, 488-497.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 488-497
    • Marletto, V.1    Zinoni, F.2    Criscuolo, L.3    Fontana, G.4    Marchesi, S.5    Morgillo, A.6    Soetendael, M.V.7    Ceotto, E.8    Andersen, U.9
  • 24
    • 0041911049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production: A review
    • doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(03)00005-4
    • Matthews, R. B. & Wassmann, R. 2003 Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production: a review. Eur. J. Agron. 19, 573-598. (doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(03)00005-4.)
    • (2003) Eur. J. Agron , vol.19 , pp. 573-598
    • Matthews, R.B.1    Wassmann, R.2
  • 25
    • 0033608661 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparative response of EPIC and CERES crop models to high and low spatial resolution climate change scenarios
    • doi:10.1029/1998JD200061
    • Mearns, L. O., Mavromatis, T. & Tsvetsinskaya, E. 1999 Comparative response of EPIC and CERES crop models to high and low spatial resolution climate change scenarios. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 6623-6646. (doi:10.1029/1998JD200061.)
    • (1999) J. Geophys. Res , vol.104 , pp. 6623-6646
    • Mearns, L.O.1    Mavromatis, T.2    Tsvetsinskaya, E.3
  • 26
    • 0001110270 scopus 로고
    • Estimating yield distributions with a stochastic trend and nonnormal errors
    • Moss, C. B. & Shonkwiler, S. 1993 Estimating yield distributions with a stochastic trend and nonnormal errors. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 75, 1056-1062.
    • (1993) Am. J. Agric. Econ , vol.75 , pp. 1056-1062
    • Moss, C.B.1    Shonkwiler, S.2
  • 27
    • 4043124611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
    • doi:10.1038/nature02771
    • Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M. & Stainforth, D. A. 2004 Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430, 768-772. (doi:10.1038/nature02771.)
    • (2004) Nature , vol.430 , pp. 768-772
    • Murphy, J.M.1    Sexton, D.M.H.2    Barnett, D.N.3    Jones, G.S.4    Webb, M.J.5    Collins, M.6    Stainforth, D.A.7
  • 30
    • 85020780591 scopus 로고
    • Groundnut
    • Reddy, P. S, ed, Pusa, New Delhi, India: Indian Council of Agricultural Research
    • Reddy, P. S. (ed.) 1988 Groundnut. Krishi Anusandhan Bhavan, Pusa, New Delhi, India: Indian Council of Agricultural Research.
    • (1988) Krishi Anusandhan Bhavan
  • 31
    • 0032696847 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Agricultural impact assessment, vulnerability, and the scope for adaptation
    • doi:10.1023/A:1005553518621
    • Reilly, J. M. & Schimmelpfennig, D. 1999 Agricultural impact assessment, vulnerability, and the scope for adaptation. Climatic Change 43, 745-788. (doi:10.1023/A:1005553518621.)
    • (1999) Climatic Change , vol.43 , pp. 745-788
    • Reilly, J.M.1    Schimmelpfennig, D.2
  • 32
    • 0000676348 scopus 로고
    • The effects of elevated carbon dioxide temperature and soil moisture on the water use of stands of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.)
    • Stronach, I. M., Clifford, S. C., Mohamed, A. D., Singleton-Jones, P. R., Azam-Ali, S. N. & Crout, N. M. J. 1994 The effects of elevated carbon dioxide temperature and soil moisture on the water use of stands of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). J. Exp. Bot. 280, 1633-1638.
    • (1994) J. Exp. Bot , vol.280 , pp. 1633-1638
    • Stronach, I.M.1    Clifford, S.C.2    Mohamed, A.D.3    Singleton-Jones, P.R.4    Azam-Ali, S.N.5    Crout, N.M.J.6
  • 33
    • 2342581435 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields
    • doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0035-x
    • Trnka, M., Dubrovsky, M., Semerádová, D. & Žalud, Z. 2004 Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 77, 229-249. (doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0035-x.)
    • (2004) Theor. Appl. Climatol , vol.77 , pp. 229-249
    • Trnka, M.1    Dubrovsky, M.2    Semerádová, D.3    Žalud, Z.4
  • 34
    • 0036919622 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 on crops: Approaches and applications for climate change
    • doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00097-7
    • 2 on crops: approaches and applications for climate change. Eur. J. Agron. 18, 57-74. (doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00097-7.)
    • (2002) Eur. J. Agron , vol.18 , pp. 57-74
    • Tubiello, F.N.1    Ewert, F.2
  • 35
    • 0036325688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of climate change on US crop production: Simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I. Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus
    • Tubiello, F. N., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R. A., Jagtap, S. & Jones, J. W. 2002 Effects of climate change on US crop production: simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I. Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus. Climate Res. 20, 259-270.
    • (2002) Climate Res , vol.20 , pp. 259-270
    • Tubiello, F.N.1    Rosenzweig, C.2    Goldberg, R.A.3    Jagtap, S.4    Jones, J.W.5
  • 36
    • 0033673544 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Temperature variability and the annual yield of crops
    • doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(00) 00224-3
    • Wheeler, T. R., Craufurd, P. Q., Ellis, R. H., Porter, J. R. & Prasad, P. V. V. 2000 Temperature variability and the annual yield of crops. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 82, 159-167. (doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(00) 00224-3.)
    • (2000) Agric. Ecosyst. Environ , vol.82 , pp. 159-167
    • Wheeler, T.R.1    Craufurd, P.Q.2    Ellis, R.H.3    Porter, J.R.4    Prasad, P.V.V.5
  • 37
    • 84970598823 scopus 로고
    • Physiological analysis of peanut cultivar response to timing and duration of drought stress
    • doi:10.1071/AR9910453
    • Wright, G. C., Hubick, K. T. & Farquahar, G. D. 1991 Physiological analysis of peanut cultivar response to timing and duration of drought stress. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 42, 453-470. (doi:10.1071/AR9910453.)
    • (1991) Aust. J. Agric. Res , vol.42 , pp. 453-470
    • Wright, G.C.1    Hubick, K.T.2    Farquahar, G.D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.