Predictive Thresholds for Plague in Kazakhstan

Science

Volumn 304, Issue 5671, 2004, Pages 736-738

  Davis, Stephen ^a,b   Begon, Mike ^c   De Bruyn, Luc ^b,d   Ageyev, Vladimir S ^e   Klassovskly, Nikolay L ^e   Pole, Sergey B ^e   Viljugrein, Hildegunn ^f   Stenseth, Nils Chr ^f   Leirs, Herwig ^a,b  

^a Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory   (Denmark)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ANTWERP   (Belgium)

^c UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^d RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR NATURE AND FOREST INBO   (Belgium)

^e M Alkimbaev's Kazakh Sci Ctr   (Kazakhstan)

^f UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BACTERIA; COSTS; DATA ACQUISITION; DISEASES;

GERBILS; INFECTIONS; NATURAL POPULATION; PLAGUE;

BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING;

DISEASE INCIDENCE; MEDICINE; THRESHOLD;

ARTICLE; ASIA; COST; DATA ANALYSIS; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; GERBIL; HEALTH SURVEY; HOST; HUMAN; KAZAKHSTAN; NONHUMAN; PARAMETER; PLAGUE; POPULATION; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RESERVOIR; WILDLIFE; YERSINIA PESTIS;

ANIMALS; ANIMALS, WILD; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; DISEASE RESERVOIRS; FLEAS; GERBILLINAE; HUMANS; INSECT VECTORS; KAZAKHSTAN; LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; NONLINEAR DYNAMICS; PLAGUE; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; RODENT DISEASES; YERSINIA PESTIS;

ASIA; EURASIA; KAZAKHSTAN; WEST ASIA;

BACTERIA (MICROORGANISMS); GERBILLINAE; NEGIBACTERIA; RHOMBOMYS OPIMUS; YERSINIA; YERSINIA PESTIS;

EID: 2342429098     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1095854     Document Type: Article

References (21)

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21. This work was supported by the European Union as projects ISTC K-1S9 and "STEPICA" (INCO-COPERNICUS, ICA 2-CT2000-10048) as well as the authors' institutes. We wish to thank the many hundreds of Kazakh plague zoologists who collected so marry data over all these years. We would also like to thank K.-S. Chan and J. Lindsey for their assistance and advice with our statistical difficulties and M. Pletschette for his stimulating encouragement since the initial stages. H. Dostyk provided excellent working facilities.