Climatic information and decision-making in maize crop production systems of the Argentinean Pampas

Agricultural Systems

Volumn 88, Issue 2-3, 2006, Pages 180-204

  Bert, Federico E ^a   Satorre, Emilio H ^a,b   Toranzo, Fernando Ruiz ^b   Podestá, Guillermo P ^c  

^a UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES   (Argentina)

^b Asociacion Argentina de Consorcios Regionales de Experimentacion Agricola Buenos Aires   (Argentina)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI   (United States)

Author keywords

Argentine pampas; Decision map; ENSO; Maize; Value of climate information

Indexed keywords

CROP PRODUCTION; DECISION MAKING; MAIZE;

ARGENTINA; PAMPAS; SOUTH AMERICA;

ZEA MAYS;

EID: 33644540553     PISSN: 0308521X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2005.03.007     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. R.M. Adams, L.L. Houston, B.A. McCarl, M. Tiscareño, J. Matus, and R.F. Weiher The benefits to Mexican Agriculture of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) early warning system Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 115 2003 183 194
2. A. Amissah-Arthur, S. Jagtap, and C. Rosenzweig Spatio-temporal effects of El Niño events on rainfall and maize yield in Kenya International Journal of Climatology 22 2002 1849 1860
3. W.J. Burns, and R.T. Clemen Covariance structure models and influence diagrams Management Science 39 3 1993 816 834
4. S.C. Chapman, R. Imray, and G.L. Hammer Relationship between seasonal forecasts and grain prices G.L. Hammer N. Nicholls C. Mitchell Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agriculture and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian experience 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht, The Netherlands 367 380
5. C.C. Chen, B. McCarl, and H. Hill Agricultural value of ENSO information under alternative phase definition Climatic Change 54 2002 305 325
6. M. Dilley Climatic factors affecting annual maize yields in the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico International Journal of Climatology 17 1997 1549 1557
7. H. Eakin Smallholder maize production and climate risk: a case study for Mexico Climatic Change 45 2000 19 36
8. Estefanell, G.A. (Ed.), 1997. El sector agroalimentario argentino en los 90. Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
9. Y.L. Everingham, R.C. Muchow, R.C. Stone, N.J. Inman Bamber, A. Singels, and C.N. Bezuidenhout Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecast Agricultural Systems 74 2002 459 477
10. L. Gimeno, P. Ribera, R. Iglesias, L. de la Torre, R. García, and E. Hernández Identification of empirical relationships between indices of ENSO and NAO and agricultural yields in Spain Climate Research 21 2002 165 172
11. L. Goddard, S. Mason, S. Zebiak, C. Ropelewski, R. Basher, and M. Cane Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions International Journal of Climatology 21 2001 1111 1152
12. L. Goddard, A.G. Barnston, and S.J. Mason Evaluation of the IRI'S Net Assessment Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997-2001 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84 2003 1761 1781
13. A.M. Grimm, V.R. Barros, and M.E. Doyle Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events Journal of Climate 13 2000 53 58
14. M.O. Grondona, G.P. Podestá, M. Bidegain, M. Marino, and H. Hordij A stochastic precipitation weather generator conditioned on ENSO phase: A case study in southeastern south America Journal of Climate 12 1999 2973 2986
15. E. Guevara, S. Meira, M. Maturano, and G. Coco Maize simulation for different environments in Argentina International Symposium: Modelling cropping systems. European Society of Agronomy 1999 University of Lleida Catalunia, Spain 193 194
16. A.J. Hall, J.H. Lemcoff, and M. Trápani Water stress before and during flowering in maize and its effects on yields, its components and their determinants Maydica 26 1981 19 38
17. A.J. Hall, C.M. Rebella, C.M. Ghersa, and J.P.H. Culot Field crops systems of the Pampas C.J. Pearson Field Crops Systems: Ecosystems of the World vol. 18 1992 Elsevier Amsterdam 413 449
18. G.L. Hammer A general approach to applying seasonal climate forecast G.L. Hammer N. Nicholls Mitchell C. Applications of Seasonal Climate forecast in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. The Australian Experience 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht, The Netherlands 51 65
19. G.L. Hammer, J.W. Hansen, J. Philips, J.W. Mjelde, H.S.J. Hill, A. Love, and A. Potgieter Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture Agricultural Systems 70 2001 515 533
20. J.W. Hansen Realizing the potential benefits of the climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges Agricultural Systems 74 2002 309 330
21. Hansen, J.W., Jones, J.W., Magrin, G., Meira, S.G., Guevara, E.R., Travasso, M.I., Díaz, R.A., Marino, M., Hordij, H., Harwell, C., Podestá, G., 1996. ENSO effects on yields and economic returns of wheat, corn, and soybean in Argentina. In: Actas del VII Congreso Argentino y VII Congreso Latinoamericano e Ibérico de Meteorología. Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2-6 September 1996, pp. 89-90.
22. H.C. Hartmann, T.C. Pagano, S. Sorooshian, and R. Bales Confidence builders. Evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from users perspectives Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83 2002 683 698
23. R. Hilton The determinants of information value: Synthesizing some general results Management Science 27 1981 57 64
24. W.W. Hsieh, B. Tang, and E.R. Garnett Teleconnections between Pacific sea surface temperatures and Canadian prairie wheat yield Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 96 1999 209 217
25. S.R. Johnson, and M.T. Holt Value of weather information R.W. Katz A.H. Murphy Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts 1997 Cambridge University Press Cambridge 75 107
26. S.A. Jones, B. Fischhoff, and D. Lach An integrated impact assessment of the effects of climate changes on the Pacific Northwest salmon fishery Impact assessment and Project Appraisal 16 3 1998 227 237
27. J. Jones, G. Tsuji, G. Hoogenboom, L. Hunt, P. Thornton, P. Wilkens, D. Imamura, W. Bowen, and U. Singh Decision support system for agrotechnology transfer G. Tsuji G. Hoogenboom P. Thornton Understanding Options for Agricultural Production 1998 Kluwer Dordrecht, The Netherlands 157 177
28. S.A. Jones, B. Fischhoff, and D. Lach Evaluating the science-policy interface for climate change research Climatic Change 43 1999 581 599
29. J.W. Jones, J.W. Hansen, F.S. Royce, and C.D. Messina Potential benefits of climate forecasting to agriculture Agricultural Ecosystem and Environment 82 2000 169 184
30. H. Kite-Powel, and A. Solow A Bayesian approach to estimating benefits of improved forecasts Meteorological Applications 1 1994 351 354
31. P.J. Lamb Do we know what we should be trying to forecast-climatically Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 62 1981 1000 1001
32. M. Latif, D. Anderson, T. Bounett, M. Cané, R. Kleeman, A. Leetmaa, J. O'Brien, A. Rosati, and E. Schneider A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO Journal of Geophysical Research 103 1998 14375 14393
33. D. Letson, and B.D. McCullough ENSO and soybean prices: Correlation without causality Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 33 2001 513 521
34. D. Letson, I. Llovet, G. Podestá, F. Royce, V. Brescia, D. Lema, and G. Parellada User perspectives of climate forecasts: Crop producers in Pergamino, Argentina Climate Research 19 2001 57 67
35. Magrín, G.O., Grondona, M.O., Travasso, M.I., Boullan, D.R., Rodriguez, G.R., Messina, C.D., 1998. Impacto del fenómeno "El Niño" sobre la producción de cultivos en la región pampeana. Instituto de Clima y Agua, INTA report. Dirección de Comunicaciones, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 16 pp.
36. Márgenes Agropecuarios Magazine. No. 212, Febrero de 2003.
37. S.J. Mason, L. Goddard, N.E. Graham, V. Yulaeva, L. Sun, and P.A. Arkin The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 1999 1853 1873
38. H. Meinke, and R.C. Stone On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modeling: a case study for wheat Scientia Agricola (Piracicaba) 54 1997 121 129
39. Meinke, H., Stone, R.C. Seasonal and interannual climate forecasting: the new tools for increasing preparedness to climate variability in agricultural planning and operations, Climatic Change, in press.
40. H. Meinke, W. Baethgen, P.S. Carberry, M. Donatelli, G.L. Hammer, R. Selvaraju, and C. Stöckle Increasing profits and reducing risk in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches Agricultural Systems 70 2001 493 513
41. Mercau, J.L., Satorre, E.H., Otegui, M.E., Maddoni, G.A., Cárcova, J., Ruiz, R., Uribelarrea, M., Menendez, F.J., 2001. Evaluación a campo del comportamiento del modelo Ceres en cultivos de maíz del norte de la provincia de Buenos Aires. In: Proceedings of VII Congreso Nacional de Maíz, Pergamino.
42. C.D. Messina, J.W. Hansen, and A. Hall Land allocation conditioned on ENSO phases in the Argentine Pampas Agricultural Systems 60 1999 197 212
43. F.J. Meza, and D.S. Wilks Value of operational forecasts of seasonal average surface temperature anomalies for selected rain-fed agricultural locations of Chile Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 116 2003 137 158
44. F.J. Meza, D.S. Wilks, S.J. Riha, and J.R. Stedinger Value of perfect forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies for selected rain-fed agricultural locations of Chile Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 116 2003 117 135
45. J.W. Mjelde, S.T. Sonka, B.L. Dixon, and P.J. Lamb Valuing forecast characteristics in a dynamic agricultural production system American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70 1988 674 684
46. J. Mjelde, H. Hill, and J. Griffiths Review of current evidence on climate forecasts and their economic effects in agriculture American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80 1998 1089 1095
47. M.G. Morgan, B. Fischhoff, A. Bostrom, and C.J. Atman Risk Communication. A Mental Models Approach 2002 Cambridge University Press New York
48. R.L. Naylor, W.P. Falcon, D. Rochberg, and N. Wada Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation climate data to predict rice production in Indonesia Climatic Change 50 2001 255 265
49. P.A. Oram Sensitivity of agricultural production to climate change, an update Climate and Food Security 1989 IRRI Manila The Philippines 25 44
50. J. Paruelo, and O. Sala Effect of global change on Argentine maize Climate Research 3 1993 161 167
51. J. Phillips, B. Rajagopalan, M. Cane, and C. Rosenzweig The role of ENSO in determining climate and maize yield variability in the U.S. Cornbelt International Journal of Climatology 19 1999 877 888
52. G.P. Podestá, C.D. Messina, M.O. Grondona, and G.O. Magrín Associations between grain crop yield in central-eastern Argentina and El Niño southern oscillation Journal of Applied Meteorology 38 1999 1488 1498
53. G. Podestá, D. Letson, C. Messina, F. Royce, R.A. Ferreyra, J. Jones, J. Hansen, I. Llovet, M. Grondona, and J.J. O'Brien Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience Agricultural Systems 74 2002 371 392
54. C.W. Richardson Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation Water Resource Research 17 1981 182 190
55. J. Ritchie, V. Singh, D. Godwin, and W. Bowen Cereal growth, development and yield G. Tsuji G. Hoogenboom P. Thornton Understanding Options for Agricultural Production 1998 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht, The Netherlands 79 98
56. C.F. Ropelewski, and M.S. Halpert Global and regional scale patterns associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation Monthly Weather Review 115 1987 1606 1626
57. C.F. Ropelewski, and M.S. Halpert Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the southern oscillation Journal of Climate 13 1989 35 38
58. C.F. Ropelewski, and M.S. Halpert Quantifying southern oscillation - precipitation relationships Journal of Climate 9 1996 1043 1059
59. F.S. Royce, J.W. Jones, and J.W. Hansen Model-based optimization of crop management for climate forecast application American Society of Agricultural Engineers 44 2001 1319 1327
60. E.H. Satorre Production systems in the Argentine Pampas and their ecological impact O.T. Solbrig R. Paalberg F. di Castri Globalization and the Rural Environment 2001 Harvard University Press Cambridge, MA 80 102
61. Satorre, E.H., 2002. El cultivo de maíz como oportunidad para la sustentabidad de la agricultura. In: Proceedings of Congreso de maíz para productores y técnicos, Buenos Aires, Argentina, pp. 8-11.
62. M. Semenov, R. Brooks, E. Barrow, and C. Richardson Comparison of WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates Climate Research 10 1998 95 107
63. B. Sherrick, S. Sonka, P. Lamb, and M. Mazzocco Decision-maker expectations and the value of the climate prediction information Meteorological Applications 7 2000 377 386
64. Solari, F., 2002. El lugar del maíz en la zona núcleo y en el Oeste húmedo. In: Proceedings of Congreso de maíz para productores y técnicos, Buenos Aires, Argentina, pp. 232-244.
65. A.R. Solow, R.F. Adams, K.J. Bryant, D.M. Legler, J.J. O'Brien, B.A. McCarl, W. Nayda, and R. Weiher The value of improved ENSO prediction to US agriculture Climatic Change 39 1998 47 60
66. S.T. Sonka, J.W. Mjelde, P.J. Lamb, S.E. Hollinger, and B.L. Dixon Valuing climate forecast information Journal of Climate Applied Meteorology 26 1987 1080 1091
67. P.C. Stern W.E. Easterling Making Climate Forecasts Matter 1999 National Academy Press Washington, DC, USA
68. T.R. Stewart, P.J. Roebber, and L.F. Bosart The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes 69 1997 205 219
69. T.R. Stewart, R. Pielke Jr., and R. Nath Understanding user decision making and the value of improved precipitation forecasts. Lessons from a case study Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85 2004 223 235
70. M.I. Travasso, G.O. Magrín, and G.R. Rodríguez Relations between sea-surface temperature and crop yields in Argentina International Journal of Climatology 23 2003 1655 1672
71. K.E. Trenberth Short-term climate variations recent accomplishments and issues for future progress Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 1997 1081 1096
72. K.E. Trenberth, and D.P. Stepaniak Indices of El Niño evolution Journal of Climate 14 2001 1697 1701
73. M.B. Vanotti, and L.G. Bundy An alternative rationale for corn nitrogen fertilizer recommendations Journal of Production Agriculture 7 1994 243 248
74. M.B. Vanotti, and L.G. Bundy Corn nitrogen recommendations based on yield response data Journal of Production Agriculture 7 1994 249 254
75. W.M. Vargas, O.C. Penalba, and J.L. Minetti Las precipitaciones mensuales en zonas de la Argentina y el ENOS. Un enfoque hacia problemas de decisión Meteorológica 24 1999 2 22
76. D. Wilks, and R. Wilby Review of stochastic weather models Progress in Physical Geography 23 1999 329 357