Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: Issues, approaches, challenges

Agricultural Systems

Volumn 74, Issue 3, 2002, Pages 309-330

  Hansen, James W ^a  

^a Earth Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate forecasts; Decision making; El Ni o Southern Oscillation; Research strategy

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECISION MAKING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;

EID: 0036890598     PISSN: 0308521X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00043-4     Document Type: Article

References (91)

1. Amissah-Arthur, A., 2000. Need for indicators in targeting climate forecasts: Climatic risk and income diversification. In: Proceedings of the International Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture and Development. IRI-CW/00/1. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York, pp. 291-296.
2. Anderson, J.R., Dillon, L.J., Hardaker, J.B., 1977. Agricultural Decision Analysis. Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, USA.
3. Anderson, J., van den Dool, H., Barnston, A., Chen, W., Stern, W., Ploshay, J., 1999. Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, 1349-1361.
4. Barnett, T.P., Beingtsson, L., Arpe, K., Flügel, M., Graham, N., Latif, M., Ritchie, J., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., Tyree, M., 1994. Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies. Tellus 46A, 381-397.
5. Barnston, A.G., Glantz, M.H., He, Y., 1999. Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997-98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, 217-243.
6. Barnston, A.G., van den Dool, H.M., Zebiak, S.E., Barnett, T.P., Ji, M., Rodenhuis, D.R., Cane, M.A., Leetmaa, A., Graham, N.E., Ropelewski, C.R., Kousky, V.E., O'Lenic, E.A., Livezey, R.E., 1994. Long-lead seasonal forecasts - Where do we stand? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 75, 2097-2114.
7. Barrett, C.B., 1998. The value of imperfect ENSO forecast information: Discussion. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80, 1109-1112.
8. Bebbington, A., 1994. Composing rural livelihoods: From farming systems to food systems. In: Scoones, I., Thompson, J. (Eds.), Beyond Farmer First. Rural People's Knowledge, Agricultural Research and Extension Practice. Intermediate Technology Publication, London, pp. 88-93.
9. Blench, R., 1999. Seasonal climate forecasting: Who can use it and how should it be disseminated. Natural Resource Perspectives No. 47. Overseas Development Institute, London.
10. Broad, K., Agrawala, S., 2000. The Ethiopian food crisis - Uses and limits of climate forecasts. Science 289, 1693-1694.
11. Buizer, J.L., Foster, J., Lund, D., 2000. Global impacts and regional actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81, 2121-2139.
12. Cane, M.A., 2001. Understanding and predicting the world's climate system. In: Rosenzweig, C., Boote, K.J., Hollinger, S., Iglesias, A., Phillips, J. (Eds.), Impacts of El Niño and Climate Variability on Agriculture. ASA Special Publication no. 63. American Society of Agronomy, Madison, WI, USA, pp. 1-20.
13. Carberry, P., Hammer, G.L., Meinke, H., Bange, M., 2000. The potential value of seasonal climate forecasting in managing cropping systems. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C. (Eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 167-181.
14. Carlson, R.E., Todey, D.P., Taylor, S.E., 1996. Midwestern corn yield and weather in relation to extremes of the southern oscillation. Journal of Production Agriculture 9, 347-352.
15. Chavas, J.P., Pope, R.D., 1984. Information: Its measurement and valuation. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66, 705-710.
16. Cusack, D.F., 1983. Introduction: Reviving the green revolution. In: Cusack, D.F. (Ed.), Agroclimate Information for Development: Reviving the Green Revolution. Westview Press, Boulder, CO, USA, pp. xii-xvi.
17. Dilley, M., 2000. Reducing vulnerability to climate variability in Southern Africa: The growing role of climate information. Climatic Change 45, 63-73.
18. Downing, T.E., Bakker, K., 2000. Drought vulnerability: Concepts and theory. In: Wilhite, D.A. (Ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment. Routledge Publishers, London.
19. Eakin, H., 2000. Smallholder maize production and climatic risk: A case study from Mexico. Climatic Change 45, 19-36.
20. Easterling, W.E., Mjelde, J.W., 1987. The importance of seasonal climate prediction lead time in agricultural decision making. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 40, 37-50.
21. Everingham, Y.L., Muchow, R.C., Stone, R.C., Inman-Bamber, N.G., Singels, A., Bezuidenhout, C.N., 2002. Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugar industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecasts. Agriculture Systems; PII: S0308-521X(02)00050-1.
22. Gadgil, S., Rao, P.R.S., Rao, K.N. 2002. Use of prediction of climate variability for agriculture in the semi-arid tropics. Agricultural Systems; PII: S0308-521X(02)00049-5.
23. Goddard, L., Mason, S.J., Zebiak, S.E., Ropelewski, C.F., Basher, R., Cane, M.A., 2001. Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions. International Journal of Climatology 21, 1111-1152.
24. Hammer, G.L., 2000. A general systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C. (Eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 51-65.
25. Hammer, G.L., Holzworth, D.P., Stone, R., 1996. The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climate variability. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 47, 717-773.
26. Hammer, G.L., Hansen, J.W., Phillips, J., Mjelde, J.W., Hill, H.S.J., Love, A., Potgieter, A., 2001. Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture. Agricultural Systems 70, 515-553.
27. Hansen, J.W., 2001. Applying climate prediction in a risk management framework: Farm land allocation in the Argentine Pampas. In: Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop, Palisades, New York, 23-27 October 2000. US Department of Commerce. pp. 181-184.
28. Hansen, J.W., Jones, J.W., Irmak, A., Royce, F.S., 2001. ENSO impacts on crop production in the Southeast United States. In: Rosenzweig, C., Boote, K.J., Hollinger, S., Iglesias, A., Phillips, J. (Eds.), Impacts of El Niño and Climate Variability on Agriculture. ASA Special Publication no. 63. American Society of Agronomy, Madison, WI, USA, pp. 57-78.
29. Hardaker, J.B., Huirne, R.B.M., Anderson, J.R., 1997. Coping with Risk in Agriculture. CAB International, Wallingford, UK.
30. Hayman, P.T., 2000. Communicating probabilities to farmers: Pie charts and chocolate wheels. In: Petheram, R.J. (Ed.), Tools for Participatory R&D in Dryland Cropping Areas. RIRDC 00/132. Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Canberra, Australia, pp. 133-136. (Available from http://www.rirdc.gov.au/reports/HCC/00-132.pdf).
31. Hulme, M., Biot, Y., Borton, J., Buchanan-Smith, Davies, S., Folland, C., Nicholds, N., Seddon, D., Ward, N, 1992. Seasonal rainfall forecasting for Africa part II - Application and impact assessment. Intern. Journal of Environmental Studies 40, 103-121.
32. Ingram, K.T., Roncoli, M.C., Kirshen, P.H., 2002. Opportunities and constraints for farmers of West Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agricultural Systems; PII: S0308-521X(02)00044-6.
33. IRI, 2000. Summary Report of the Workshop: Linking Climate Prediction Model Output with Crop Model Requirements. IRI-CW/00/2. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York. (Available from http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/publication/irireport/workshop2000.pdf).
34. Jagtap, S.S. Jones, J.W., Hildebrand, P., Letson, D., O'Brien, J.J., Podestá, G., Zazueta, F., 2002. Benefitting from climate information: From research to practical applications in Florida. Agricultural Systems; PII: S0308-521X(02)00048-3.
35. Jochec, K.G., Mjelde, J.W., Lee, A.C., Conner, J.R., 2002. Use of seasonal climate forecasts in rangeland-based livestock operations in West Texas. Journal of Applied Meteorology 40, 1629-1639.
36. Jones, J.W., Hansen, J.W. O'Brien, J.J. Podestá, G. Zazueta, F., 2000a. Agricultural applications of climate predictions: Bridging the gap between research and its application in the SE USA. In: Proceedings of the International Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture and Development. IRI-CW/00/1. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York, pp. 59-66.
37. Jones, J.W., Hansen, J.W., Royce, F.S., Messina, C.D., 2000b. Potential benefits of climate forecasting to agriculture. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82, 169-184.
38. Keating, B.A., Godwin, D.C., Watiki, J.M., 1991. Optimising nitrogen inputs in response to climatic risk. In: Muchow, R.C., Bellamy, J.A. (Eds.), Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management for the Semi-arid Tropics and Sub-tropics. CAB International, Wallingford, UK, pp. 329-358.
39. Kiladiz, G., Diaz, H., 1989. Global climate anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern-Oscillation. Journal of Climate 2, 1069-1090.
40. Kirshen, P.H., Flitcroft, I.D., 2000. Use of seasonal precipitation forecasting to improve agricultural production in the Sudano-Sahel: An institutional analysis of Burkina Faso. Natural Resources Forum 24, 185-195.
41. Lamb, P.J., 1981. Do we know what we should be trying to forecast - Climatically? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 62, 1000-1001.
42. Latif, M., Anderson, D., Barnett, T., Cane, M., Kleeman, R., Leetmaa, A., O'Brien, J., Rosati, A., Schneider, E., 1998. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research 103, 14375-14393.
43. Letson, D., Llovet, I, Podestá, G.P., Royce, F., Brescia, V., Lema, D., Parellada, G., 2001. User perspectives of climate forecasts: Crop producers in Pergamino, Argentina. Climate Research 19, 57-67.
44. Malusalila, P. M. 2000. Experiences of an agricultural input supplier. In: Proceedings of the International Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture and Development. IRI-CW/00/1. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York, pp. 82-86.
45. Martin, A., Sherington, J., 1997. Participatory research methods - Implementation, effectiveness and institutional context. Agricultural Systems 55, 195-216.
46. Mason, S.J., Goddard, L., 2001. Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82, 619-638.
47. McCown, R.L., Cox, P.G., Keating, B.A., Hammer, G.L., Carberry, P.S., Probert, M.E., Freebairn, D.M., 1994. The development of strategies for improved agricultural systems and land-use management. In: Goldworthy, P., Penning de Vries, F.W.T. (Eds.), Opportunities, Use and Transfer of Systems Research Methods in Agriculture to Developing Countries. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 81-96.
48. McCown, R.L., Wafula, B.M., Mohammed, L., Ryan, J.G., Hargreaves, J.N.G., 1991. Assessing the value of a seasonal rainfall predictor to agronomic decisions: The case of response farming in Kenya. In: Muchow, R.C., Bellamy, J.A. (Eds.), Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management for the Semi-arid Tropics and Sub-tropics. CAB International, Wallingford, UK, pp. 383-409.
49. McFadden, D., 1999. Rationality for economists? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19, 73-105.
50. Meinke, H., Stone, R.C., Hammer, G.L., 1996. SOI phases and climate risk to peanut production: A case study for Northern Australia. International Journal of Climatology 16, 783-789.
51. Meinke, H., Hochman, Z., 2000. Using seasonal climate forecasts to manage dryland crops in northern Australia - Experiences from the 1997/98 seasons. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C. (Eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 49-165.
52. Meinke, H., Baethgen, W.E., Carberry, P.S., Donatelli, M., Hammer, G.L., Selvaraju, R., Stöckle, C.O., 2001. Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches. Agricultural Systems 70, 493-513.
53. Messina, C.D., Hansen, J.W., Hall, A.J., 1999. Land allocation conditioned on El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases in the Pampas of Argentina. Agricultural Systems 60, 197-212.
54. Mjelde, J.W., Sonka, S.T., Dixon, B.L., Lamb, P.J., 1988. Valuing forecast characteristics in a dynamic agricultural production system. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70, 674-684.
55. Mjelde, J.W., Thompson, T.N., Nixon, C.J., 1996. Government institutional effects on the value of seasonal climate forecasts. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78, 175-188.
56. Mjelde, J.W., Thompson, T.N., Nixon, C.J., Lamb, P.J., 1997. Utilising a farm-level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction research needs. Meteorological Applications 4, 161-170.
57. Mjelde, J.W., Hill, H.S.J., Griffiths, J.F., 1998. A review of current evidence on climate forecasts and their economic effects in agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80, 1089-1095.
58. Musser, W.N., Musser, L.M., 1984. Psychological perspectives on risk analysis. In: Barry, P.J. (Ed.), Risk Management in Agriculture. Iowa State Univ. Press, Ames, Iowa, USA, pp. 82-92.
59. Nelson, R.A., Holzworth, D.P., Hammer, G.L., Hayman, P.T., 2002. Infusing use of seasonal climate forecasts into crop management practice in NE Australia using discussion support software. Agricultural Systems; PII: S0308-521X(02)00047-1.
60. Nicholls, N., Kestin, T., 1998. Communicating climate. Climatic Change 40, 417-420.
61. O'Brien, K., Sygna, L., Næss, L.O., Kingamlono, R., Hochobeb, B., 2000. Is information enough? User responses to seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa. CICERO Report 2000:3, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo.
62. Oram, P.A., 1989. Sensitivity of agricultural production to climatic change, an update. In: Climate and Food Security. IRRI, Manila, The Philippines, pp. 25-44.
63. Orlove, B., Tosteson, J., 1999. The Application of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasts Based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events: Lessons from Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia, Peru and Zimbabwe. Working papers in Environmental Politics 2. Institute of International Studies, University of California, Berkeley.
64. Palmer, T.N., Anderson, D.L.T., 1994. The prospects for seasonal forecasting. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 120, 755-793.
65. Pfaff, A., Broad, K., Glantz, M.H., 1999. Who benefits from climate forecasts? Nature 397, 645-646.
66. Phillips, J.G., Cane, M.A., Rosenzweig, C., 1998. ENSO, seasonal rainfall patterns, and simulated maize yield variability in Zimbabwe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 90, 39-50.
67. Phillips, J.G., Rajagopalan, B., Cane, M.A., Rosenzweig, C., 1999. The role of ENSO in determining climate and maize yield variability in the US Cornbelt. International Journal of Climatology 19, 877-888.
68. Phillips, J.G., Unganai, L., Makaudze, E., 2001. Current and potential use of seasonal climate forecasts for resource-poor farmers in Zimbabwe. In: Rosenzweig, C., Boote, K.J., Hollinger, S., Iglesias, A., Phillips, J. (Eds.), Impacts of El Niño and Climate Variability on Agriculture. ASA Special Publication no. 63. American Society of Agronomy, Madison, WI, USA, pp. 87-100.
69. Phillips, J.G., Deane, D., Unganai, L., Mutikani, V., 2002. Changes in small-holder grain production in Zimbabwe using seasonal climate forecasts. Agricultural Systems; PII: S0308-521X(02)00045-8.
70. Podestá, G.P., Messina, C.D., Grondona, M.O., Magrin, G.O., 1999. Associations between grain crop yields in central-eastern Argentina and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Journal of Applied Meteorology 38, 1488-1498.
71. Podestá, G., Letson, D., Messina, C., Royce, F., Ferreyra, Jones, J., Llovet, I., Hansen, J., Grondona, M., O'Brien, J., 2002. Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: A pilot experience. Agricultural Systems; PII: S0308-521X(02)00046-X.
72. Ribot, J.C., 1996. Climate variability, climate change and vulnerability: Moving forward by looking back. In: Ribot, J.C., Magalhaes, A.R., Panagides, S. (Eds.), Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
73. Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/southern oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606-1626.
74. Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., 1996. Quantifying southern oscillation-precipitation relationships. Journal of Climate 9, 1043-1059.
75. Sanchez, P., Izac, A.M., Buresh, R., Shepherd, K., Soule, M., Mokwunye, U., Palm, C., Woomer, P., Nderitu, C., 1997. Soil fertility replenishment in Africa as an investment in natural resource capital. In: Buresh, R., Sanchez, P. (Eds.), Replenishing Soil Fertility in Africa. SSSA Special Publication No. 51. Soil Science Society of America, Madison, WI, USA, pp. 1-46.
76. Sah, R.K., 1987. Tropical economies and weather information. In: Fein, J.S., Stephens, P.L. (Eds.), Monsoons. John Wiley & Sons, New York, pp. 105-119.
77. Sonka, S.T., Lamb, P.J., Hollinger, S.E., Mjelde, J.W., 1986. Economic use of weather and climate information: Concepts and an agricultural example. Journal of Climatology 6, 447-457.
78. Sonka, S.T., Mjelde, J.W., Lamb, P.J., Hollinger, S.E., Dixon, B.L., 1987. Valuing climate forecast information. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 26, 1080-1091.
79. Sonka, S.T., Changnon, S.A., Hofing, S., 1988. Assessing climate information use in agribusiness ii: Decision experiments to estimate economic value. Journal of Climate 1, 766-774.
80. Stern, P.C., Easterling, W.E. (Eds.), 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA.
81. Stewart, T.R., 1997. Forecast value: Descriptive decision studies. In: Katz, R.W., Murphy, A.H. (Eds.), Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 147-181.
82. Stone, R.C., Hammer, G.L., Marcussen, T., 1996. Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation index. Nature 384, 252-255.
83. Stoorvogel, J.J., Smaling, E.M.A., 1990. Assessment of Soil Nutrient Depletion in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1983-2000. Report 28, Winand Staring Center for Integrated Land, Soil and Water Research (SCDLO). Wageningen, Netherlands.
84. Thornton, P.K., Herrero, M., 2001. Integrated crop-livestock simulation models for scenario analysis and impact assessment. Agricultural Systems 70, 581-602.
85. Trenberth, K.E., 1997. Short-term climate variations: Recent accomplishments and issues for future progress. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78, 1081-1096.
86. Tsikisayi, S., 1998. Impact of the seasonal climate forecast for the 1997/98 season: Farmers point of view. In: Proceedings of the Post Season National Climate Stakeholders Seminar 1997-98, 29 April 1998, Harare. Zimbabwe Department of Meteorological Services, Harare.
87. Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., 1981. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211, 452-458.
88. Vlek, P.L.G., Kühne, R.F., Denich, M., 1997. Nutrient resources for crop production in the tropics. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 352, 975-985.
89. Vogel, C., 1998. Vulnerability and global environmental change. LUCC Newsletter 3, 15-19.
90. von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O., 1947. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton, MA, USA.
91. Wilby, R.L., Wigley, T.M.L., 2000. Downscaling general circulation model output: A reappraisal of methods and limitations. In: Sivakumar, M.V.K. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture. Proceedings of the START/WMO International Workshop held in Geneva, Switzerland, 27-29 September 1999. International START Secretariat, Washington DC, USA, pp. 39-68.