Improving Indo-Pakistan relations: International relations theory, nuclear deterrence and possibilities for economic cooperation

Contemporary South Asia

Volumn 14, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 321-339

  Sridharan, E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY; INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; THEORETICAL STUDY;

ASIA; EURASIA; INDIA; PAKISTAN; SOUTH ASIA;

EID: 32544457908     PISSN: 09584935     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09584930500463768     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. For post-tests analyses see, for example, Sumit Ganguly, 'India's pathway to Pokhran II: The prospects and sources of New Delhi's nuclear weapons program', International Security, Vol 23, No 4, 1999, pp 148-177;
2. Samina Ahmed, 'Pakistan's nuclear weapons program: Turning points and nuclear choices', International Security, Vol 23, No 4, 1999, pp 178-204.
3. While there is no doubt that India was effectively deterred in 2002, it is also probable that its restraint was aimed at keeping the focus on Pakistan as an aggressor in Kargil. Whether the de facto deterrence in place is a stable one can be debated, but existential and then explicit deterrence has demonstrably been present in recent tensions.
4. For a detailed discussion on the neorealist/neoliberal debate, see Robert Powell, 'Anarchy in international relations theory: The neorealist-neoliberal debate', International Organization, Vol 48, No 2, 1994, pp 313-344.
5. Joseph M. Grieco, 'Anarchy and the limits of cooperation', in David Baldwin (ed), Neorealism and its Critics: The Contemporary Debate (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp 116-142.
6. Ibid, pp 116-142.
7. Duncan Snidal, 'Relative gains and the pattern of international cooperation', American Political Science Review, 85, September 1991, pp 701-726.
8. Robert Powell, Ref 3, pp 35-37.
9. Peter Liberman, 'Trading with the enemy: Security and relative economic gains', International Security, Vol 21, No 1, 1996, pp 147-175.
10. For an overview of the offence-defence balance debate, see Stephen Van Evera, 'Offense, defense and the causes of war', International Security, Vol 22, No 4, 1998, 5-41
11. Sean M. Lynn-Jones, 'Offense-defense theory and its critics', Security Studies, Vol 4, No 4, 1995, pp 660-691.
12. John C. Matthews III, 'Current gains and future outcomes: When cumulative relative gains matter', International Security, Vol 21, No 1, 1996, pp 112-146.
13. Ibid, p 114.
14. Ibid, p 114.
15. Ibid, pp 135-140, 143-146.
16. Ibid, pp 130-134, 140-143.
17. For a survey of the neorealist-neoliberal debate on the relationship between economic interdependence and the likelihood of war, see Dale C. Copeland, 'Economic interdependence and war: A theory of trade expectations', International Security, Vol 20, No 4, 1996, pp 5-41.
18. Ibid, pp 26-39.
19. Mircea Malitza, 'Ten thousand cultures, a single civilization', International Political Science Review, Vol 21, No 1, 2000, pp 75-89.
20. Ibid, p 83. One can view the peaceful break-up of Czechoslovakia, the devolution of powers to Scotland and the possible resolution of Northern Ireland, to be nested in the commitment or aspiration of existing states to a larger European unification.
21. Devin T. Hagerty, 'Nuclear deterrence in South Asia: The 1990 Indo-Pakistani crisis', International Security, Vol 20, No 3, 1995/96, pp 79-114. Hagerty outlines the differences between the two logics that of nonproliferation, and that of nuclear deterrence∠d their opposite predictions of the likelihood of war between small and new nuclear powers with insecure second-strike capacities.
22. Sumit Ganguly and Devin T. Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry: India-Pakistan Crises in the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons. New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2005, pp 188-192.
23. I thank Mahendra P. Lama, V.R. Panchamukhi, Nagesh Kumar, Shabnam Pareek and Nisha Taneja for help with the material in this section, and Mahendra Lama, Vineet Virmani and Tariq M.A. Rangoonwala for conversations on India-Pakistan trade in Delhi between 2000 and 2005.
24. S. Akbar Zaidi, Issues in Pakistan's Economy (Karachi: Oxford University Press, second edition, 2000).
25. Trade and Economic Cooperation between India and Pakistan (New Delhi: Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, 1999), p 1.
26. This seems to have shrunk to 600 according to the Status Paper on India-Pakistan Economic Relations (New Delhi: Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, 2003).
27. Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook 2002 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2002).
28. From Table 1, and by using an estimate of unofficial trade being three times official trade.
29. Interview with Vineet Virmani, a businessman long involved in India-Pakistan trade, currently a member of the executive committee of the India-Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and former president of the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, at New Delhi on 3 August 2000.
30. For SAARC intra-regional trade, see SAARC Survey of Development and Cooperation 1998-99 (New Delhi: Research and Information System for the Non-aligned and Other Developing Countries, 1999)
31. and Debapriya Bhattacharya, 'Economic confidence-building measures in South Asia', in Dipankar Banerjee (ed), CBMs in South Asia: Potential and Possibilities (Colombo: Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, 2000), pp 112-117.
32. I am indebted to Vineet Virmani and Shabnam Pareek of the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi Chamber of Commerce and Industry for this historical information.
33. See Rahul Tongia and V.S. Arunachalam, 'Natural gas imports by South Asia: Pipelines or pipedreams', Economic and Political Weekly, Vol 34, No 18, 1999, pp 1054-1064;
34. Toufiq Siddiqi, 'India-Pakistan cooperation in energy and environment', in Banerjee, op cit, Ref 26
35. and Mahendra P. Lama, Energy Cooperation in South Asia: Issues, Challenges and Potential (New Delhi: South-South Solidarity, 1999);
36. Mahendra P. Lama, "Integrating Stakeholders in Energy Cooperation", South Asian Journal, 3(1), July- September 2005, pp 6-20;
37. Mohammed Ramzan Ali, "Gas Pipelines and Regional Cooperation", South Asian Journal, 3(1), July-September 2005, pp 21-29.
38. For the pipeline cost estimates see Amitav Ranjan 'We will pay for gas we get, Pak stretch your lookout: India to Iran', Indian Express, 20 December 2004;
39. Sanjeev Sharma and G. Ganapathy Subramaniam, 'India wants WTO shield for pipeline', Economic Times, 24 August 2005.
40. For transit fee estimates, see Tayyab Qazi, 'Pipe Dream', Asian Age, 27 August 2005;
41. Ravi Batra, "The peace pipe, or a pipe in pieces', Economic Times, 9 November 2004.
42. For the pipeline cost estimates see Amitav Ranjan 'We will pay for gas we get, Pak stretch your lookout: India to Iran', Indian Express, 20 December 2004;
43. Sanjeev Sharma and G. Ganapathy Subramaniam, 'India wants WTO shield for pipeline', Economic Times, 24 August 2005.
44. R.K. Pachauri, 'Not a pipedream: Back to Iran gas pipeline option', Times of India, 17August 2000, accessed January 21 2006.
45. Interview with K.V. Rajan, Secretary (East), Ministry of External Affairs, who led the Indian delegation in Indo-Iran Joint Commission talks in August 2000, New Delhi, 7 September 2000.
46. Nadeem Iqbal, "working for a regional energy supply network", in Banerjee, op cit., Ref 27, p 166.
47. Nadeem Iqbal, 'Working for a regional energy supply network', in Banerjee, op cit, Ref 26.
48. Lama, op cit, Ref 29, pp 30-31.
49. Siddiqi, op cit, Ref 29, p 162.
50. The best example of such intra-South trade is the growing intra-regional trade within ASEAN, and between China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In the 1980s, Japanese and other multinationals relocated labour-intensive manufacturing to Southeast Asia. With rising wages, Hong Kong and Taiwanese companies relocated such industries to coastal China.
51. For details, see Trade and Economic Cooperation between India and Pakistan, op cit, Ref 23
52. Minutes of the First Meeting of the Executive Committee of India-Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (New Delhi: Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, 1999).
53. For a comprehensive account of the origins and negotiation of the treaty, see Niranjan D. Gulhati, The Indus Waters Treaty: An Exercise in International Mediation (Bombay: Allied Publishers, 1973).
54. I am indebted to Indians Ramaswamy R. Iyer, former Secretary, Water Resources, and S.K. Singh, former Foreign Secretary, for conversations on this issue.