The realism of Russia's foreign policy

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 53, Issue 1, 2001, Pages 7-31

  Lynch, Allen C ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FOREIGN POLICY; INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; NATIONAL IDENTITY;

RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

EID: 0035121830     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668130124714     Document Type: Article

References (171)

1. Ted Hopf (ed.), Understandings of Russian Foreign Policy (University Park, Penn State University Press, 1999).
2. Russia's 1998 external debt amounted to approximately $140 billion, with more than $18 billion due in interest and principal; by contrast, the sum total of the Russian federal budget amounted to about $25 billion (with $10 billion - or just 55% of the total due - formally allocated to debt servicing; for the rest, Russia must have debt relief from G-7 country creditors, public and private, or face default). For the year 2000, external debt amounts to $155 billion as against a Russian federal budget of $33 billion. Iurii Proshin, 'Russia's Foreign Debts Will Be Paid', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 7-12; The New York Times, 9 January 2000, p. 8.
3. Russia's 1998 external debt amounted to approximately $140 billion, with more than $18 billion due in interest and principal; by contrast, the sum total of the Russian federal budget amounted to about $25 billion (with $10 billion - or just 55% of the total due - formally allocated to debt servicing; for the rest, Russia must have debt relief from G-7 country creditors, public and private, or face default). For the year 2000, external debt amounts to $155 billion as against a Russian federal budget of $33 billion. Iurii Proshin, 'Russia's Foreign Debts Will Be Paid', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 7-12; The New York Times, 9 January 2000, p. 8.
4. On the importance of relations with the West in securing Russia's interests see President El'tsin's 4 July 1999 message to President Clinton in the immediate aftermath of NATO's war in Serbia, as summarised in S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, p. 126, and the sober and constructive official discussion of cooperation with NATO before the war in Serbia by contrast to Russian histrionics during the war itself (although here too Russian officials took pains to distinguish their views toward NATO from those toward the separate states constituting NATO, as well as the Contact Group that included five NATO states as well as Russia): compare Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 1, pp. 15-16, 21-22, 98 with 1999, 4, pp. 9-46; 'Balkanskii krizis i Rossiisko-Amerikanskie otnosheniya (situatsionnyi analiz)', S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, pp. 41-54; and A.M. Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', Polis, 1999, 2, pp. 26-30.
5. On the importance of relations with the West in securing Russia's interests see President El'tsin's 4 July 1999 message to President Clinton in the immediate aftermath of NATO's war in Serbia, as summarised in S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, p. 126, and the sober and constructive official discussion of cooperation with NATO before the war in Serbia by contrast to Russian histrionics during the war itself (although here too Russian officials took pains to distinguish their views toward NATO from those toward the separate states constituting NATO, as well as the Contact Group that included five NATO states as well as Russia): compare Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 1, pp. 15-16, 21-22, 98 with 1999, 4, pp. 9-46; 'Balkanskii krizis i Rossiisko-Amerikanskie otnosheniya (situatsionnyi analiz)', S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, pp. 41-54; and A.M. Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', Polis, 1999, 2, pp. 26-30.
6. On the importance of relations with the West in securing Russia's interests see President El'tsin's 4 July 1999 message to President Clinton in the immediate aftermath of NATO's war in Serbia, as summarised in S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, p. 126, and the sober and constructive official discussion of cooperation with NATO before the war in Serbia by contrast to Russian histrionics during the war itself (although here too Russian officials took pains to distinguish their views toward NATO from those toward the separate states constituting NATO, as well as the Contact Group that included five NATO states as well as Russia): compare Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 1, pp. 15-16, 21-22, 98 with 1999, 4, pp. 9-46; 'Balkanskii krizis i Rossiisko-Amerikanskie otnosheniya (situatsionnyi analiz)', S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, pp. 41-54; and A.M. Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', Polis, 1999, 2, pp. 26-30.
7. On the importance of relations with the West in securing Russia's interests see President El'tsin's 4 July 1999 message to President Clinton in the immediate aftermath of NATO's war in Serbia, as summarised in S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, p. 126, and the sober and constructive official discussion of cooperation with NATO before the war in Serbia by contrast to Russian histrionics during the war itself (although here too Russian officials took pains to distinguish their views toward NATO from those toward the separate states constituting NATO, as well as the Contact Group that included five NATO states as well as Russia): compare Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 1, pp. 15-16, 21-22, 98 with 1999, 4, pp. 9-46; 'Balkanskii krizis i Rossiisko-Amerikanskie otnosheniya (situatsionnyi analiz)', S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, pp. 41-54; and A.M. Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', Polis, 1999, 2, pp. 26-30.
8. On the importance of relations with the West in securing Russia's interests see President El'tsin's 4 July 1999 message to President Clinton in the immediate aftermath of NATO's war in Serbia, as summarised in S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, p. 126, and the sober and constructive official discussion of cooperation with NATO before the war in Serbia by contrast to Russian histrionics during the war itself (although here too Russian officials took pains to distinguish their views toward NATO from those toward the separate states constituting NATO, as well as the Contact Group that included five NATO states as well as Russia): compare Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 1, pp. 15-16, 21-22, 98 with 1999, 4, pp. 9-46; 'Balkanskii krizis i Rossiisko-Amerikanskie otnosheniya (situatsionnyi analiz)', S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, pp. 41-54; and A.M. Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', Polis, 1999, 2, pp. 26-30.
9. James Richter, 'Russian Foreign Policy and the Politics of National Identity', in Celeste Wallander (ed.), The Sources of Russian Foreign Policy After the Cold War (Boulder, CO, Westview Press, 1996), pp. 69-73.
10. Edward Mansfield & Jack Snyder, 'Democratization and War', International Security, 20, 1, Summer 1995, pp. 5-38.
11. Moshe Lewin, 'La Russie en mal d'Etat', Le Monde Diplomatique, November 1998, pp. 1, 18-19; Cynthia Roberts & Thomas Sherlock, 'Bringing the Russian State Back In: Explanations of the Derailed Transition to Market Democracy' (Review Article), Comparative Politics, 31, 4, July 1999, pp. 477-498.
12. Moshe Lewin, 'La Russie en mal d'Etat', Le Monde Diplomatique, November 1998, pp. 1, 18-19; Cynthia Roberts & Thomas Sherlock, 'Bringing the Russian State Back In: Explanations of the Derailed Transition to Market Democracy' (Review Article), Comparative Politics, 31, 4, July 1999, pp. 477-498.
13. F. Stephen Larrabee & Theodore W. Karasik, Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking Under Yeltsin (Santa Monica, RAND, 1997); Claudia Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin. Internationale und innerstaatliche Einflussfaktoren aussenpolitischen Wandels (Frankfurt am Main, Peter Lang, 1997), pp. 51-139; Scott Parrish, 'Chaos in Foreign-Policy Decision-Making', Transition (Prague), 17 May 1996, p. 30; and Suzanne Crow, The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia under Yeltsin (Munich, RFE/RL Research Institute, 1993).
14. F. Stephen Larrabee & Theodore W. Karasik, Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking Under Yeltsin (Santa Monica, RAND, 1997); Claudia Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin. Internationale und innerstaatliche Einflussfaktoren aussenpolitischen Wandels (Frankfurt am Main, Peter Lang, 1997), pp. 51-139; Scott Parrish, 'Chaos in Foreign-Policy Decision-Making', Transition (Prague), 17 May 1996, p. 30; and Suzanne Crow, The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia under Yeltsin (Munich, RFE/RL Research Institute, 1993).
15. F. Stephen Larrabee & Theodore W. Karasik, Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking Under Yeltsin (Santa Monica, RAND, 1997); Claudia Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin. Internationale und innerstaatliche Einflussfaktoren aussenpolitischen Wandels (Frankfurt am Main, Peter Lang, 1997), pp. 51-139; Scott Parrish, 'Chaos in Foreign-Policy Decision-Making', Transition (Prague), 17 May 1996, p. 30; and Suzanne Crow, The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia under Yeltsin (Munich, RFE/RL Research Institute, 1993).
16. F. Stephen Larrabee & Theodore W. Karasik, Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking Under Yeltsin (Santa Monica, RAND, 1997); Claudia Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin. Internationale und innerstaatliche Einflussfaktoren aussenpolitischen Wandels (Frankfurt am Main, Peter Lang, 1997), pp. 51-139; Scott Parrish, 'Chaos in Foreign-Policy Decision-Making', Transition (Prague), 17 May 1996, p. 30; and Suzanne Crow, The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia under Yeltsin (Munich, RFE/RL Research Institute, 1993).
17. Mette Skak, From Empire to Anarchy. Postcommunist Foreign Policy and International Relations (London, Hurst & Co., 1996), pp. 137-191; Leon Aron, 'The Foreign Policy Doctrine of Postcommunist Russia and its Domestic Context', in Michael Mandelbaum (ed.), The New Russian Foreign Policy (New York, Council on Foreign Relations, 1998), pp. 23-63; and Jeffrey Checkel, 'Structure, Institutions, and Process: Russia's Changing Foreign Policy', in Adeed Dawisha & Karen Dawisha (eds), The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (Armonk, NY, M.E. Sharpe, 1995), pp. 49-56.
18. Mette Skak, From Empire to Anarchy. Postcommunist Foreign Policy and International Relations (London, Hurst & Co., 1996), pp. 137-191; Leon Aron, 'The Foreign Policy Doctrine of Postcommunist Russia and its Domestic Context', in Michael Mandelbaum (ed.), The New Russian Foreign Policy (New York, Council on Foreign Relations, 1998), pp. 23-63; and Jeffrey Checkel, 'Structure, Institutions, and Process: Russia's Changing Foreign Policy', in Adeed Dawisha & Karen Dawisha (eds), The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (Armonk, NY, M.E. Sharpe, 1995), pp. 49-56.
19. Mette Skak, From Empire to Anarchy. Postcommunist Foreign Policy and International Relations (London, Hurst & Co., 1996), pp. 137-191; Leon Aron, 'The Foreign Policy Doctrine of Postcommunist Russia and its Domestic Context', in Michael Mandelbaum (ed.), The New Russian Foreign Policy (New York, Council on Foreign Relations, 1998), pp. 23-63; and Jeffrey Checkel, 'Structure, Institutions, and Process: Russia's Changing Foreign Policy', in Adeed Dawisha & Karen Dawisha (eds), The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (Armonk, NY, M.E. Sharpe, 1995), pp. 49-56.
20. Michael McFaul, 'A Precarious Peace: Domestic Politics in the Making of Russian Foreign Policy', International Security, 22, 3, Winter 1997, pp. 5-36 and Michael McFaul, 'Russia's Many Foreign Policies', Demokratizatsiya, 7, 4, Summer 1999, pp. 393-412.
21. Michael McFaul, 'A Precarious Peace: Domestic Politics in the Making of Russian Foreign Policy', International Security, 22, 3, Winter 1997, pp. 5-36 and Michael McFaul, 'Russia's Many Foreign Policies', Demokratizatsiya, 7, 4, Summer 1999, pp. 393-412.
22. Ibid.
23. Checkel, pp. 42-65. For Russian views in substantial agreement see Sergei Rogov, 'Rossiya i Zapad', S. Sh. A., 1995, 3, pp. 3-14 and Sergei Karaganov, 'Rudderless and Without Sails', Moscow News, 25 December 1994-1 January 1995, p. 7. Rogov is the director of the Institute for USA and Canada Studies, Karaganov deputy director of the Institute of Europe and also chairman of the politically influential Council on Foreign and Defence Policy.
24. Checkel, pp. 42-65. For Russian views in substantial agreement see Sergei Rogov, 'Rossiya i Zapad', S. Sh. A., 1995, 3, pp. 3-14 and Sergei Karaganov, 'Rudderless and Without Sails', Moscow News, 25 December 1994-1 January 1995, p. 7. Rogov is the director of the Institute for USA and Canada Studies, Karaganov deputy director of the Institute of Europe and also chairman of the politically influential Council on Foreign and Defence Policy.
25. Checkel, pp. 42-65. For Russian views in substantial agreement see Sergei Rogov, 'Rossiya i Zapad', S. Sh. A., 1995, 3, pp. 3-14 and Sergei Karaganov, 'Rudderless and Without Sails', Moscow News, 25 December 1994-1 January 1995, p. 7. Rogov is the director of the Institute for USA and Canada Studies, Karaganov deputy director of the Institute of Europe and also chairman of the politically influential Council on Foreign and Defence Policy.
26. Andrei Kozyrev, 'Russia and Human Rights', Slavic Review, 51, 2, Summer 1992, pp. 287-293; see also Kozyrev's liberal-internationalist speech before the United Nations General Assembly in September 1992, 'Vystuplenie ministra inostrannykh del Rossiiskoi Federatsii A.V. Kozyreva na 47-i sessii General'noi Assamblei OON', Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1992, 19-20, pp. 18-20.
27. Andrei Kozyrev, 'Russia and Human Rights', Slavic Review, 51, 2, Summer 1992, pp. 287-293; see also Kozyrev's liberal-internationalist speech before the United Nations General Assembly in September 1992, 'Vystuplenie ministra inostrannykh del Rossiiskoi Federatsii A.V. Kozyreva na 47-i sessii General'noi Assamblei OON', Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1992, 19-20, pp. 18-20.
28. For a documented analysis see David Kerr, 'The New Eurasianaism: The Rise of Geopolitics in Russia's Foreign Policy', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 6, September 1995, pp. 977-988; for a discussion of extremist Russian views see Aleksandr Yanov, Posle El'tsina (Moscow, KRUK, 1995), pp. 26-111; for one such work see Aleksandr Dugin, Osnovy Geopolitiki. Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii (Moscow, Arktogeya, 1997). For a more balanced Russian analysis see V.L. Tsymbursky, 'Geopolitika kak mirovidenie i rod zanyatii', Polis, 1999, 4, pp. 7-28.
29. For a documented analysis see David Kerr, 'The New Eurasianaism: The Rise of Geopolitics in Russia's Foreign Policy', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 6, September 1995, pp. 977-988; for a discussion of extremist Russian views see Aleksandr Yanov, Posle El'tsina (Moscow, KRUK, 1995), pp. 26-111; for one such work see Aleksandr Dugin, Osnovy Geopolitiki. Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii (Moscow, Arktogeya, 1997). For a more balanced Russian analysis see V.L. Tsymbursky, 'Geopolitika kak mirovidenie i rod zanyatii', Polis, 1999, 4, pp. 7-28.
30. For a documented analysis see David Kerr, 'The New Eurasianaism: The Rise of Geopolitics in Russia's Foreign Policy', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 6, September 1995, pp. 977-988; for a discussion of extremist Russian views see Aleksandr Yanov, Posle El'tsina (Moscow, KRUK, 1995), pp. 26-111; for one such work see Aleksandr Dugin, Osnovy Geopolitiki. Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii (Moscow, Arktogeya, 1997). For a more balanced Russian analysis see V.L. Tsymbursky, 'Geopolitika kak mirovidenie i rod zanyatii', Polis, 1999, 4, pp. 7-28.
31. For a documented analysis see David Kerr, 'The New Eurasianaism: The Rise of Geopolitics in Russia's Foreign Policy', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 6, September 1995, pp. 977-988; for a discussion of extremist Russian views see Aleksandr Yanov, Posle El'tsina (Moscow, KRUK, 1995), pp. 26-111; for one such work see Aleksandr Dugin, Osnovy Geopolitiki. Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii (Moscow, Arktogeya, 1997). For a more balanced Russian analysis see V.L. Tsymbursky, 'Geopolitika kak mirovidenie i rod zanyatii', Polis, 1999, 4, pp. 7-28.
32. The case under discussion concerned union with Belarus, which Russian liberals such as Chubais opposed because of the economic costs and the feared drag on Russia's liberal prospects in general. Sherman W. Garnett, 'Europe's Crossroads: Russia and the West in the New Borderlands', in Mandelbaum (ed.), p. 75. See also the report submitted by Primakov's Federal Intelligence Service as published in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 September 1994.
33. The case under discussion concerned union with Belarus, which Russian liberals such as Chubais opposed because of the economic costs and the feared drag on Russia's liberal prospects in general. Sherman W. Garnett, 'Europe's Crossroads: Russia and the West in the New Borderlands', in Mandelbaum (ed.), p. 75. See also the report submitted by Primakov's Federal Intelligence Service as published in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 September 1994.
34. Neil Malcom, Alex Pravda, Roy Allison & Margot Light, Internal Factors in Russian Foreign Policy (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1996), pp. 289-290.
35. For excerpts of Kozyrev's astounding speech, in which he affected the stance of a Zhirinovsky-like rabid nationalist, see The New York Times, 15 December 1992, p. A16. One indication of the domestic political damage that Kozyrev inflicted on himself with the speech, akin to Khrushchev's banging the shoe at the General Assembly in 1960, is seen in the fact that the Foreign Ministry did not include this speech in its official documentary collection on Russian foreign policy between 1990 and 1992. His previous speeches at CSCE meetings were published. See Ministerstvo inostrannykh del Rossiiskoi Federatsii, Vneshnyaya politika Rossii. Sbornik dokumentov 1990-1992 (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1996). For earlier CSCE speeches by Kozyrev, see pp. 197-199, 326-328.
36. For excerpts of Kozyrev's astounding speech, in which he affected the stance of a Zhirinovsky-like rabid nationalist, see The New York Times, 15 December 1992, p. A16. One indication of the domestic political damage that Kozyrev inflicted on himself with the speech, akin to Khrushchev's banging the shoe at the General Assembly in 1960, is seen in the fact that the Foreign Ministry did not include this speech in its official documentary collection on Russian foreign policy between 1990 and 1992. His previous speeches at CSCE meetings were published. See Ministerstvo inostrannykh del Rossiiskoi Federatsii, Vneshnyaya politika Rossii. Sbornik dokumentov 1990-1992 (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1996). For earlier CSCE speeches by Kozyrev, see pp. 197-199, 326-328.
37. For analysis and a wealth of primary sources see Rajan Menon, 'After Empire: Russia and the Southern "Near Abroad"', in Mandelbaum (ed.), pp. 100-166; in addition see Jean Radvanyi, Transports et geostrategie au sud de la Russie', Le Monde Diplomatique, June 1998, pp. 18-19.
38. For analysis and a wealth of primary sources see Rajan Menon, 'After Empire: Russia and the Southern "Near Abroad"', in Mandelbaum (ed.), pp. 100-166; in addition see Jean Radvanyi, Transports et geostrategie au sud de la Russie', Le Monde Diplomatique, June 1998, pp. 18-19.
39. Allen Lynch, 'Der Einfluss des Militaers auf die Aussenpolitik Russlands', Europa Archiv, 49, 15, 10 August 1994, pp. 437-446.
40. Malcolm et al., pp. 81, 136.
41. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report. Russian National Affairs, FBIS-SOV-95-037, 24 February 1995, p. 25.
42. For a detailed analysis of this general point as applied to the Russian-Chechen war see Gail W. Lapidus, 'Contested Sovereignty: The Tragedy of Chechnya', International Security, 23, 1, Summer 1998, esp. pp. 7-8, 28-41.
43. The English-language text of the 'Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation' may be found at www.nato.int/docu.basictxt/fndact-a.htm.
44. Andrei Kozyrev, 'The New Russia and the Atlantic Alliance', NATO Review, February 1993, pp. 3-6; Suzanne Crow, 'Russia Asserts its Strategic Agenda', RFE-RL Research Report, 2, 50, 17 December 1993, pp. 1-8.
45. Andrei Kozyrev, 'The New Russia and the Atlantic Alliance', NATO Review, February 1993, pp. 3-6; Suzanne Crow, 'Russia Asserts its Strategic Agenda', RFE-RL Research Report, 2, 50, 17 December 1993, pp. 1-8.
46. McFaul, 'Russia's Many Foreign Policies'.
47. John Lloyd, 'The Logic of Vladimir Putin', The New York Times Magazine, 19 March 2000, p. 65.
48. McFaul, 'Russia's Many Foreign Policies', p. 397.
49. For Russian experts' views on Kozyrev and Primakov see 'Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanksie otnosheniya', pp. 45, 49, 51.
50. For background on the Moldovan civil war see Final Report on the Conflict in the Left Bank Dniestr Areas of the Republic of Moldova by the Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of the CSCE Council Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Director of SIPRI (Prague, 31 January 1993) as well as Adam Daniel Rotfeld, 'In Search of a Political Settlement. The Case of the Conflict in Moldova', in The Challenge of Preventive Diplomacy. The Experience of the CSCE (Stockholm, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 1994), pp. 100-137, and Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 122-127.
51. For background on the Moldovan civil war see Final Report on the Conflict in the Left Bank Dniestr Areas of the Republic of Moldova by the Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of the CSCE Council Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Director of SIPRI (Prague, 31 January 1993) as well as Adam Daniel Rotfeld, 'In Search of a Political Settlement. The Case of the Conflict in Moldova', in The Challenge of Preventive Diplomacy. The Experience of the CSCE (Stockholm, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 1994), pp. 100-137, and Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 122-127.
52. For background on the Moldovan civil war see Final Report on the Conflict in the Left Bank Dniestr Areas of the Republic of Moldova by the Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of the CSCE Council Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Director of SIPRI (Prague, 31 January 1993) as well as Adam Daniel Rotfeld, 'In Search of a Political Settlement. The Case of the Conflict in Moldova', in The Challenge of Preventive Diplomacy. The Experience of the CSCE (Stockholm, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 1994), pp. 100-137, and Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 122-127.
53. Malcolm et al., p. 148.
54. Fiona Hill & P. Jewett, 'Back in the USSR'. Russian Intervention in the Internal Affairs of the Former Soviet Republics and the Implications for United States Policy Toward Russia (Cambridge, JFK School of Government, January 1994), p. 61.
55. Vladimir Socor, 'Russia's Fourteenth Army and Insurgency in Eastern Moldova', RFE-RL Research Report 1, 36, 11 September 1992, pp. 41-48.
56. Pavel Anokhin, 'Istochnik voiny v Pridnestrov'e no iskat' v Moskve', Moskovskii Komsomolets, 5 April 1994, p. 2.
57. Stuart J. Kaufman, 'Spiraling to Ethnic War: Elites, Masses and Moscow in Moldova's Civil War', International Security, 21, 2, Fall 1996, pp. 108-139.
58. Hans-Henning Schroder, Eine Armee in der Krise, Die russischen Streitkräfte 1992-93: Risikofaktor oder Garant politischer Stabilität? (Cologne, Berichte des Bundesinstituts für ostwissenschaftliche und internationaler Studien, 45, 1993).
59. Ibid., pp. 35-36.
60. Andrei Kozyrev, 'Partiya voiny nastupaet: i v Moldove, i v Gruzii, i v Rossii', Izvestiya, 30 June 1992. See also Kozyrev's joint declaration with the Moldovan foreign minister as well as a CIS communiqué on Moldova from that period in Vneshnyaya politika Rossii. Sbornik Dokumentov, 1990-1992, pp. 323-325, 414.
61. Andrei Kozyrev, 'Partiya voiny nastupaet: i v Moldove, i v Gruzii, i v Rossii', Izvestiya, 30 June 1992. See also Kozyrev's joint declaration with the Moldovan foreign minister as well as a CIS communiqué on Moldova from that period in Vneshnyaya politika Rossii. Sbornik Dokumentov, 1990-1992, pp. 323-325, 414.
62. Andranik Migranyan, 'Rossiya i Blizhnee Zarubezh'e', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 18 January 1994, pp. 4-5, 8.
63. Malcolm et al., p. 300.
64. For background see Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 84-93,
65. and Paul Kubicek, 'Russian Foreign Policy and the West', Political Science Quarterly, 114, 4, Winter 1999-2000, pp. 550-554.
66. For an official Russian analysis see Oleg Levitin, 'Konflikt na Balkanakh: Diplomaticheskie Aspekty', in God Planety 1995 (Moscow, Respublika, 1995), pp. 399-403.
67. For a supporting Russian analysis see Gennadii Sysoev, 'Uroki bombovykh udarov', Novoe vremya, 1994, 16, pp. 26-27.
68. Therese Raphael, Claudia Rosett & Suzanne Crow, 'An Interview with Andrei Kozyrev', Draft Research Paper, RFE/RL Research Institute, 5 July 1994, pp. 1-2.
69. For Russian experts' differing views on the nature of Russian interests in the Balkans and in particular with respect to Kosovo see 'Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanskie otnosheniya', pp. 42-43.
70. In late February 1994 President El'tsin called for a summit meeting among the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany and Russia to discuss the management of the Yugoslav crisis. Initially greeted with considerable reserve by the Western powers, by April El'tsin's idea would be institutionalised in the form of the standing Contact Group. Tanjug (Belgrade), in English, 24 February 1994, as reprinted in 'Reactions to Yeltsin's Proposals Viewed', FBIS-EEU-94-038, 25 February 1994, p. 58.
71. Izvestiya, 30 April 1994, p. 3. Russian mediator Vitalii Churkin said at the time: 'The Bosnian Serbs must understand that in Russia they are dealing with a great power, not a banana republic. Russia must decide whether a group of extremists can be allowed to use a great country's policy to achieve its own aims. Our unequivocal answer is: "never". If the Bosnian Serbs fire so much as one more volley at Gorazde, a tremendous crisis will erupt that will plunge the Serbian people into disaster'. Izvestiya, 20 April 1994, p. 1, as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 16, 1994, p. 1.
72. Izvestiya, 30 April 1994, p. 3. Russian mediator Vitalii Churkin said at the time: 'The Bosnian Serbs must understand that in Russia they are dealing with a great power, not a banana republic. Russia must decide whether a group of extremists can be allowed to use a great country's policy to achieve its own aims. Our unequivocal answer is: "never". If the Bosnian Serbs fire so much as one more volley at Gorazde, a tremendous crisis will erupt that will plunge the Serbian people into disaster'. Izvestiya, 20 April 1994, p. 1, as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 16, 1994, p. 1.
73. Izvestiya, 30 April 1994, p. 3. Russian mediator Vitalii Churkin said at the time: 'The Bosnian Serbs must understand that in Russia they are dealing with a great power, not a banana republic. Russia must decide whether a group of extremists can be allowed to use a great country's policy to achieve its own aims. Our unequivocal answer is: "never". If the Bosnian Serbs fire so much as one more volley at Gorazde, a tremendous crisis will erupt that will plunge the Serbian people into disaster'. Izvestiya, 20 April 1994, p. 1, as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 16, 1994, p. 1.
74. Igor Ivanov, the current Russian Foreign Minister, previously Primakov's deputy and long involved in Russia's Balkan diplomacy, has stated in this respect: 'Our goal is to prevent differences in approach to specific problems from degenerating into a general confrontation because, in the final analysis, that would go against our own interests ...'. Igor Ivanov, 'La Russie et l'Asie-Pacifique', Politique Etrangere, 1999, 2, p. 310.
75. Interview with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vitalii Churkin, Literaturnaya gazeta, 16 March 1994, p. 14, as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 10, 1994, pp. 29-30.
76. Interview with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vitalii Churkin, Literaturnaya gazeta, 16 March 1994, p. 14, as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 10, 1994, pp. 29-30.
77. For a convincing Russian analysis that stresses both Western military pressure and Russian diplomatic flexibility as essential in moving the Belgrade and Bosnian Serbs in opening Tuzla airport, see Izvestiya, 3 March 1994, p. 2, as translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report. Central Eurasia, FBIS-SOV-94-042, 3 March 1994, pp. 11-12.
78. For a convincing Russian analysis that stresses both Western military pressure and Russian diplomatic flexibility as essential in moving the Belgrade and Bosnian Serbs in opening Tuzla airport, see Izvestiya, 3 March 1994, p. 2, as translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report. Central Eurasia, FBIS-SOV-94-042, 3 March 1994, pp. 11-12.
79. Izvestiya, 30 April 1994, p. 3, as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 17, 1994, p. 22.
80. Izvestiya, 30 April 1994, p. 3, as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 17, 1994, p. 22.
81. See Patrick Moore, 'Bosnian Partition Plan Rejected', RFE/RL Research Report, 3, 33, 26 August 1994, pp. 1-5.
82. As cited in Pravda, 7 July 1994, p. 3, translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 27, 1994, p. 21. See also Segodnya 29 July 1994, p. 1.
83. As cited in Pravda, 7 July 1994, p. 3, translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 27, 1994, p. 21. See also Segodnya 29 July 1994, p. 1.
84. As cited in Pravda, 7 July 1994, p. 3, translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 27, 1994, p. 21. See also Segodnya 29 July 1994, p. 1.
85. Politika (Belgrade), 5 January 1995, p. 1, as translated in 'FRY, Russia Exchange Most-Favored Nation Status', FBIS-EEU-95-007, p. 42; Tanjug (Belgrade), in English, 14 September 1994, as reprinted in 'FRY, Russia sign contracts worth $1.8 billion', FBIS-EEU-94-180, 16 September 1994, p. 40; Michael Mihalka & Stan Markotich, 'Kozyrev: UN and Contact Group ha[ve] Failed to Meet Commitments to Belgrade', Open Media Research Institute Daily Digest (Prague), pt. I, no. 43, 1 March 1995, p. 3.
86. Politika (Belgrade), 5 January 1995, p. 1, as translated in 'FRY, Russia Exchange Most-Favored Nation Status', FBIS-EEU-95-007, p. 42; Tanjug (Belgrade), in English, 14 September 1994, as reprinted in 'FRY, Russia sign contracts worth $1.8 billion', FBIS-EEU-94-180, 16 September 1994, p. 40; Michael Mihalka & Stan Markotich, 'Kozyrev: UN and Contact Group ha[ve] Failed to Meet Commitments to Belgrade', Open Media Research Institute Daily Digest (Prague), pt. I, no. 43, 1 March 1995, p. 3.
87. Politika (Belgrade), 5 January 1995, p. 1, as translated in 'FRY, Russia Exchange Most-Favored Nation Status', FBIS-EEU-95-007, p. 42; Tanjug (Belgrade), in English, 14 September 1994, as reprinted in 'FRY, Russia sign contracts worth $1.8 billion', FBIS-EEU-94-180, 16 September 1994, p. 40; Michael Mihalka & Stan Markotich, 'Kozyrev: UN and Contact Group ha[ve] Failed to Meet Commitments to Belgrade', Open Media Research Institute Daily Digest (Prague), pt. I, no. 43, 1 March 1995, p. 3.
88. Politika (Belgrade), 5 January 1995, p. 1, as translated in 'FRY, Russia Exchange Most-Favored Nation Status', FBIS-EEU-95-007, p. 42; Tanjug (Belgrade), in English, 14 September 1994, as reprinted in 'FRY, Russia sign contracts worth $1.8 billion', FBIS-EEU-94-180, 16 September 1994, p. 40; Michael Mihalka & Stan Markotich, 'Kozyrev: UN and Contact Group ha[ve] Failed to Meet Commitments to Belgrade', Open Media Research Institute Daily Digest (Prague), pt. I, no. 43, 1 March 1995, p. 3.
89. Segodnya, 16 December 1994, p. 3, as translated in 'Russian foreign ministry condemns drawing of Croatia into Bosnian conflict', The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 50, 1994, p. 27.
90. Segodnya, 16 December 1994, p. 3, as translated in 'Russian foreign ministry condemns drawing of Croatia into Bosnian conflict', The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 50, 1994, p. 27.
91. Segodnya, 22 November 1994, p. 1, as translated in 'NATO Hits Serb Base; Reactions in Moscow Vary', The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 47, 1994, p. 6.
92. Segodnya, 22 November 1994, p. 1, as translated in 'NATO Hits Serb Base; Reactions in Moscow Vary', The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 47, 1994, p. 6.
93. For a selection of translated Russian documents and commentary on the diplomacy of the war in Bosnia see Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy, 1992-1994 (Columbus, OH, Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, 1994), pp. 53-68.
94. Scott Parrish, 'Twisting in the Wind: Russia and the Yugoslav Conflict', Transitions (Prague), 3 November 1995, p. 28.
95. David Hoffmann, 'Attack on Bosnia Shows Russia's Drift From West', The Washington Post, 16 September 1995, p. A20.
96. ITAR-TASS news agency, 22 July 1995, as cited in Parrish, 'Twisting in the Wind', p. 29.
97. Ibid., p. 31.
98. Jane Perlez, 'Kosovo Peace Plan Takes Shape as Russia Prods Serbs on Troops', The New York Times, 16 February 1999, pp. A1, A3.
99. For background, see Kubicek, 'Russian Foreign Policy ...', pp. 554-556.
100. See S. Karaganov et al., 'Vyzovy bezopasnosti - starye i novaya', Kommunist, 1988, 1, pp. 42-50. On the other hand, antiquarians might consult the seldom cited S. Karaganov et al., S. Sh. A. Diktatr NATO (Moscow, 1985).
101. See S. Karaganov et al., 'Vyzovy bezopasnosti - starye i novaya', Kommunist, 1988, 1, pp. 42-50. On the other hand, antiquarians might consult the seldom cited S. Karaganov et al., S. Sh. A. Diktatr NATO (Moscow, 1985).
102. Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 70-72.
103. The document as published in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 July 1995. See also 'Strategiya dlya Rossii (2)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 27 May 1994, pp. 4-5, and 'Politika natsional'noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii (1996-2000)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 May 1996, monthly supplement, pp. 1-3. For a direct statement of Karaganov's views see 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 57-80, esp. 59-60, 69, 74.
104. The document as published in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 July 1995. See also 'Strategiya dlya Rossii (2)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 27 May 1994, pp. 4-5, and 'Politika natsional'noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii (1996-2000)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 May 1996, monthly supplement, pp. 1-3. For a direct statement of Karaganov's views see 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 57-80, esp. 59-60, 69, 74.
105. The document as published in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 July 1995. See also 'Strategiya dlya Rossii (2)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 27 May 1994, pp. 4-5, and 'Politika natsional'noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii (1996-2000)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 May 1996, monthly supplement, pp. 1-3. For a direct statement of Karaganov's views see 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 57-80, esp. 59-60, 69, 74.
106. The document as published in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 21 July 1995. See also 'Strategiya dlya Rossii (2)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 27 May 1994, pp. 4-5, and 'Politika natsional'noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii (1996-2000)', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 May 1996, monthly supplement, pp. 1-3. For a direct statement of Karaganov's views see 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 57-80, esp. 59-60, 69, 74.
107. For related fears of a kind of political-economic 'ghettoisation' of Russia see Yu. V. Golik & V.I. Karasev, 'Pochemu dazhe "demokraticheskaya" Rossiya ne ustraivaet "svobodnyi" zapad?', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 3, pp. 159-160; Yurii Granin, 'Chto Vperedi? Mirovaya globalizatsiya i Rossiya', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 9, pp. 46-49; Aleksei Makushkin, 'Finansovaya globalizatsiya', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 11, pp. 32-35.
108. For related fears of a kind of political-economic 'ghettoisation' of Russia see Yu. V. Golik & V.I. Karasev, 'Pochemu dazhe "demokraticheskaya" Rossiya ne ustraivaet "svobodnyi" zapad?', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 3, pp. 159-160; Yurii Granin, 'Chto Vperedi? Mirovaya globalizatsiya i Rossiya', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 9, pp. 46-49; Aleksei Makushkin, 'Finansovaya globalizatsiya', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 11, pp. 32-35.
109. For related fears of a kind of political-economic 'ghettoisation' of Russia see Yu. V. Golik & V.I. Karasev, 'Pochemu dazhe "demokraticheskaya" Rossiya ne ustraivaet "svobodnyi" zapad?', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 3, pp. 159-160; Yurii Granin, 'Chto Vperedi? Mirovaya globalizatsiya i Rossiya', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 9, pp. 46-49; Aleksei Makushkin, 'Finansovaya globalizatsiya', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 11, pp. 32-35.
110. Yurii P. Davydov, 'Rossiya i NATO. "Posle Bala"', S. Sh. A., 1998, 1, pp. 3-18, and Jeremy Bransten, 'Russia: Ivanov Says Ties with NATO Have Improved Significantly', RFE/RL (Prague), 9 December 1998, at www.rferl.org/nca/features/1998/12/F.RU.981209182649.html.
111. Yurii P. Davydov, 'Rossiya i NATO. "Posle Bala"', S. Sh. A., 1998, 1, pp. 3-18, and Jeremy Bransten, 'Russia: Ivanov Says Ties with NATO Have Improved Significantly', RFE/RL (Prague), 9 December 1998, at www.rferl.org/nca/features/1998/12/F.RU.981209182649.html.
112. Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 4, 5 and 6, passim.
113. Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 4, p. 10.
114. For a detailed sampling of Russian official and societal views on the war see the translated items in Gordon Livermoore (ed.), Russian Foreign Policy, 1994-1998 (Columbus, OH, Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, 1999), pp. 116-142. This is a special supplement covering the period March-July 1999.
115. 'Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanskie otnosheniya', pp. 41, 50-51; Ted Hopf, 'How NATO's War in Yugoslavia is Making Foreign Policy in Moscow', Policy Memo Series, 81 (Cambridge, MA, Program on New Approaches to Russian Security, October 1999); B. Kazantsev, 'Serious Concern Over New NATO Strategy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 2, 1999, pp. 23-28. Kazantsev is deputy director of the Department of European Cooperation in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. See also Stanislav Chernyavsky, 'Zakavkaz'e v planakh Vashingtona', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 7, pp. 56-61.
116. 'Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanskie otnosheniya', pp. 41, 50-51; Ted Hopf, 'How NATO's War in Yugoslavia is Making Foreign Policy in Moscow', Policy Memo Series, 81 (Cambridge, MA, Program on New Approaches to Russian Security, October 1999); B. Kazantsev, 'Serious Concern Over New NATO Strategy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 2, 1999, pp. 23-28. Kazantsev is deputy director of the Department of European Cooperation in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. See also Stanislav Chernyavsky, 'Zakavkaz'e v planakh Vashingtona', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 7, pp. 56-61.
117. 'Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanskie otnosheniya', pp. 41, 50-51; Ted Hopf, 'How NATO's War in Yugoslavia is Making Foreign Policy in Moscow', Policy Memo Series, 81 (Cambridge, MA, Program on New Approaches to Russian Security, October 1999); B. Kazantsev, 'Serious Concern Over New NATO Strategy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 2, 1999, pp. 23-28. Kazantsev is deputy director of the Department of European Cooperation in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. See also Stanislav Chernyavsky, 'Zakavkaz'e v planakh Vashingtona', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 7, pp. 56-61.
118. 'Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanskie otnosheniya', pp. 41, 50-51; Ted Hopf, 'How NATO's War in Yugoslavia is Making Foreign Policy in Moscow', Policy Memo Series, 81 (Cambridge, MA, Program on New Approaches to Russian Security, October 1999); B. Kazantsev, 'Serious Concern Over New NATO Strategy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 2, 1999, pp. 23-28. Kazantsev is deputy director of the Department of European Cooperation in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. See also Stanislav Chernyavsky, 'Zakavkaz'e v planakh Vashingtona', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 7, pp. 56-61.
119. André Fontaine, '1979-1999: De Kaboul au Kosovo', Politique Etrangere, 1999, 3, p. 502. For the Russian texts of the peace agreement and the enabling UN Security Council Resolution (No. 1244) see Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 7, pp. 6-12.
120. André Fontaine, '1979-1999: De Kaboul au Kosovo', Politique Etrangere, 1999, 3, p. 502. For the Russian texts of the peace agreement and the enabling UN Security Council Resolution (No. 1244) see Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 7, pp. 6-12.
121. Livermoore (ed.), pp. 136-137.
122. Janine Wedel, Collision and Collusion (New York, St Martin's Press, 1998), p. 138.
123. According to an interview by the reputable Giulietto Chiesa with a 'high-ranking officer in the Russian Armed Forces', La Stampa (Turin), 13 June 1999, as translated in Johnson's List, No. 3342, item 7, 15 June 1999.
124. According to an interview by the reputable Giulietto Chiesa with a 'high-ranking officer in the Russian Armed Forces', La Stampa (Turin), 13 June 1999, as translated in Johnson's List, No. 3342, item 7, 15 June 1999.
125. For one Russian general's view on this see 'Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanskie otnoshneniya', p. 47.
126. Silviu Brucan, Social Change in Russia and Eastern Europe. From Party Hacks to Nouveaux Riches (Westport, CT, Praeger, 1998), p. 102.
127. Kubicek, p. 568; also Malcolm et al., pp. 87-88.
128. Robert G. Kaiser & David Hoffman, 'Russia Had Bigger Plan in Kosovo', The Washington Post, 25 June 1999, p. A1.
129. Assen Ignatow, Ideologie, Rhetorik und Realpolitik. Die ideologische Komponent der russischen Aussenpolitik (Cologne, Bundesinstitut für ostwissenschaftiliche und internationale Studien, Bericht 20, 17 May 1999).
130. The classic history of E.H. Carr, The Bolshevik Revolution. Volume III (London, Penguin, 1953) should now be supplemented by Jon Jacobson, When the Soviet Union Entered World Politics (University of California Press, 1994).
131. The classic history of E.H. Carr, The Bolshevik Revolution. Volume III (London, Penguin, 1953) should now be supplemented by Jon Jacobson, When the Soviet Union Entered World Politics (University of California Press, 1994).
132. Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 51-139, and Skak, From Empire to Anarchy. For a survey of translated Russian documents and commentaries tracing the criticism of Kozyrev and his adjustment see Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy, 1992-1994, pp. 1-12.
133. Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 51-139, and Skak, From Empire to Anarchy. For a survey of translated Russian documents and commentaries tracing the criticism of Kozyrev and his adjustment see Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy, 1992-1994, pp. 1-12.
134. Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 51-139, and Skak, From Empire to Anarchy. For a survey of translated Russian documents and commentaries tracing the criticism of Kozyrev and his adjustment see Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy, 1992-1994, pp. 1-12.
135. Crow, 'Russia Asserts its Strategic Agenda', p. 7.
136. Checkel, pp. 52-54.
137. See Evgenii M. Primakov, 'XXVII s"ezd KPSS i issledovanie problem mirovoi ekonomiki i mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii', Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1986, 6, p. 14 and passim; Evgenii M. Primakov & Vitalii V. Churkin, Mezhdunarodnye konflikty (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1972).
138. See Evgenii M. Primakov, 'XXVII s"ezd KPSS i issledovanie problem mirovoi ekonomiki i mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii', Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1986, 6, p. 14 and passim; Evgenii M. Primakov & Vitalii V. Churkin, Mezhdunarodnye konflikty (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1972).
139. Aleksei Bogaturov, 'International Relations Theory in Late Communist and Early Post-Communist Russia (1985-1994)', unpublished manuscript (1995), pp. 5-6. For detailed accounts, including bibliographies, see Margot Light, Soviet Theory of International Relations (Wheatsheaf Books, 1988).
140. Aleksei Bogaturov, 'International Relations Theory in Late Communist and Early Post-Communist Russia (1985-1994)', unpublished manuscript (1995), pp. 5-6. For detailed accounts, including bibliographies, see Margot Light, Soviet Theory of International Relations (Wheatsheaf Books, 1988).
141. Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 69-70, and Larrabee & Karasik, Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking, pp. 27-28.
142. Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 69-70, and Larrabee & Karasik, Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking, pp. 27-28.
143. Larrabee & Karasik, pp. 7-11.
144. For the text of a leaked British Foreign Office memorandum underscoring the importance of the British-French-Russian axis against the United States in the UN Security Council on the arms embargo issue see Mark Almond, Europe's Backyard War. The War in the Balkans (London, Macmillan, 1994), p. 406, endnote 38.
145. For Russian views on how Russia must develop coalitions of convenience in order to advance its interests see Sergei Rogov, 'Russia and the United States at the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century', Russian Politics and Law, 36, 2, March-April 1998, pp. 5-27 (a translation from Svobodnaya mysl', 1997, 4, pp. 29-45); Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', pp. 42, 52-53; 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 59-60, 74; Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 8, p. 62; Vladimir Baranovsky, 'Russia's Interests are too Important', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 3, 1999, pp. 6, 12-13; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, pp. 48-52.
146. For Russian views on how Russia must develop coalitions of convenience in order to advance its interests see Sergei Rogov, 'Russia and the United States at the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century', Russian Politics and Law, 36, 2, March-April 1998, pp. 5-27 (a translation from Svobodnaya mysl', 1997, 4, pp. 29-45); Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', pp. 42, 52-53; 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 59-60, 74; Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 8, p. 62; Vladimir Baranovsky, 'Russia's Interests are too Important', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 3, 1999, pp. 6, 12-13; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, pp. 48-52.
147. For Russian views on how Russia must develop coalitions of convenience in order to advance its interests see Sergei Rogov, 'Russia and the United States at the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century', Russian Politics and Law, 36, 2, March-April 1998, pp. 5-27 (a translation from Svobodnaya mysl', 1997, 4, pp. 29-45); Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', pp. 42, 52-53; 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 59-60, 74; Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 8, p. 62; Vladimir Baranovsky, 'Russia's Interests are too Important', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 3, 1999, pp. 6, 12-13; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, pp. 48-52.
148. For Russian views on how Russia must develop coalitions of convenience in order to advance its interests see Sergei Rogov, 'Russia and the United States at the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century', Russian Politics and Law, 36, 2, March-April 1998, pp. 5-27 (a translation from Svobodnaya mysl', 1997, 4, pp. 29-45); Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', pp. 42, 52-53; 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 59-60, 74; Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 8, p. 62; Vladimir Baranovsky, 'Russia's Interests are too Important', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 3, 1999, pp. 6, 12-13; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, pp. 48-52.
149. For Russian views on how Russia must develop coalitions of convenience in order to advance its interests see Sergei Rogov, 'Russia and the United States at the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century', Russian Politics and Law, 36, 2, March-April 1998, pp. 5-27 (a translation from Svobodnaya mysl', 1997, 4, pp. 29-45); Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', pp. 42, 52-53; 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 59-60, 74; Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 8, p. 62; Vladimir Baranovsky, 'Russia's Interests are too Important', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 3, 1999, pp. 6, 12-13; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, pp. 48-52.
150. For Russian views on how Russia must develop coalitions of convenience in order to advance its interests see Sergei Rogov, 'Russia and the United States at the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century', Russian Politics and Law, 36, 2, March-April 1998, pp. 5-27 (a translation from Svobodnaya mysl', 1997, 4, pp. 29-45); Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', pp. 42, 52-53; 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 59-60, 74; Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 8, p. 62; Vladimir Baranovsky, 'Russia's Interests are too Important', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 3, 1999, pp. 6, 12-13; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, pp. 48-52.
151. For Russian views on how Russia must develop coalitions of convenience in order to advance its interests see Sergei Rogov, 'Russia and the United States at the Threshold of the Twenty-First Century', Russian Politics and Law, 36, 2, March-April 1998, pp. 5-27 (a translation from Svobodnaya mysl', 1997, 4, pp. 29-45); Salmin, 'Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', pp. 42, 52-53; 'Russian Foreign Policy Amidst the Economic Crisis', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 1, 1999, pp. 59-60, 74; Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 8, p. 62; Vladimir Baranovsky, 'Russia's Interests are too Important', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 3, 1999, pp. 6, 12-13; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, pp. 48-52.
152. For a sophisticated Russian analysis of the logic and limits of Russian-Ukrainian rapprochement see Anatolii Usov, 'Na puti k slavyanskomu triedinstvu', Svobodnaya mysl', 1999, 10, pp. 71-77.
153. For an analysis see Margarita M. Balmaceda, 'Ukraine, Russia and European Security: Thinking Beyond NATO Expansion', Problems of post-Communism, January/February 1998, pp. 21-29.
154. For a somewhat contrary interpretation see Kubicek, pp. 556-561.
155. Many professional foreign policy analysts hold this to be untenable. Thus Sergei Rogov: 'The view that Russia is "destined" to be a great power is a dangerous myth', or Andrei Fedorov, Director of Political Programmes at the Foreign and Defence Policy Council: 'Can we remain a figure of world importance ... or should we limit ourselves to the responsibility zone directly connected with our national interests and security? ... The objective political and economic situation in Russia is pushing us toward the latter'. Rogov, p. 15; A. Fedorov, 'New Pragmatism of Russia's Foreign Policy', International Affairs (Moscow), 45, 5, 1999, p. 48; Salmin, p.10.
156. For an impressive tally of the scope of this decline see Rogov, pp. 7-12, 15; Salmin, p. 26.
157. As demonstrated by Menon, 'After Empire ...'.
158. Richard Betts, 'Must War Find a Way?', International Security, 24, 2, Fall 1999, p. 191;
159. Barry Blechman & Tamara Cofman Wittes, 'Defining Moment: The Threat
160. Dmitrii Trenin, 'Predotvrashchenie, upravlenie i uregulirovanie konfliktov naterritorrii byvshego SSSR: naskol'ko raskhodyatsya interesy Rossii i Zapada?', in B. Koppiters et al. (eds), Etnicheskie i regional'nye konflikty v Evrazii, Vol. 3 (Moscow, Ves' Mir, 1997), pp. 118-138.
161. For a sophisticated Russian analysis see Oleg Bykov, 'S. Sh. A.: Konets Sverkhderzhavnosti', in God Planety 1994 (Moscow, Respublika, 1994), pp. 269-275, and Salmin, pp. 23-25.
162. Larrabee & Karasik, Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking, pp. 5-11.
163. 'Russian Foreign Policy: Amidst the Economic Crisis', pp. 59, 74.
164. This conclusion is broadly consonant with that of Kubicek.
165. Uwe Halbach, Moskau's Südpolitik. Russland und der West im Kaspischen Raum (Cologne, Bundesinstitut für ostwissenschaftliche und internationale Studien, Bericht 30, 23 August 1999); Ariel Cohen, 'The New Great Gam: Pipeline Politics in Eurasia', Eurasia Studies, 3, 1, Spring 1996, pp. 2-15.
166. Uwe Halbach, Moskau's Südpolitik. Russland und der West im Kaspischen Raum (Cologne, Bundesinstitut für ostwissenschaftliche und internationale Studien, Bericht 30, 23 August 1999); Ariel Cohen, 'The New Great Gam: Pipeline Politics in Eurasia', Eurasia Studies, 3, 1, Spring 1996, pp. 2-15.
167. For a systematic analysis with respect to Russian-German relations in the 1990s see Celeste Wallander, Mortal Friends, Best Enemies. German-Russian Cooperation After the Cold War (Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1999).
168. While Russian diplomats were working intensively within the Contact Group to craft a diplomatic settlement to the Kosovo crisis, El'tsin declared - without apparent foundation - that he had just spoken to President Clinton to delcare: 'We will not allow Kosovo to be touched'. David Hoffmann, 'Yeltsin Vows to Disallow Force in Kosovo', The Washington Post, 19 February 1999, p. A19.
169. William Zimmerman concludes from his study of Russian opinion and foreign policy that 'a more authoritarian and less market-oriented Russia would be more prone to view the United States as threatening, would be more isolationist, and would be less inclined to reduce military spending'. William Zimmerman, 'Markets, Democracy and Russian Foreign Policy', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10, 2, April-June 1994, p. 124; see also Yanov, Posle El'tsina, for specific foreign policy views of various communist and nationalist politicians.
170. William Zimmerman concludes from his study of Russian opinion and foreign policy that 'a more authoritarian and less market-oriented Russia would be more prone to view the United States as threatening, would be more isolationist, and would be less inclined to reduce military spending'. William Zimmerman, 'Markets, Democracy and Russian Foreign Policy', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10, 2, April-June 1994, p. 124; see also Yanov, Posle El'tsina, for specific foreign policy views of various communist and nationalist politicians.
171. Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York, Simon and Schuster, 1994), pp. 118-136.