Spiraling to ethnic war: Elites, masses, and Moscow in Moldova's civil war

International Security

Volumn 21, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 108-138

  Kaufman, Stuart J ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0030520707     PISSN: 01622889     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/isec.21.2.108     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. See, e.g., Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Some more sophisticated approaches including this argument are Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985); Crawford Young, The Politics of Cultural Pluralism (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1976); and Elizabeth Crighton and Martha Abele MacIver, "The Evolution of Protracted Ethnic Conflict: Group Dominance and Political Underdevelopment in Northern Ireland and Lebanon," Comparative Politics, Vol. 23, No. 2 (January 1991), pp. 127-142.
2. See, e.g., Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Some more sophisticated approaches including this argument are Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985); Crawford Young, The Politics of Cultural Pluralism (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1976); and Elizabeth Crighton and Martha Abele MacIver, "The Evolution of Protracted Ethnic Conflict: Group Dominance and Political Underdevelopment in Northern Ireland and Lebanon," Comparative Politics, Vol. 23, No. 2 (January 1991), pp. 127-142.
3. See, e.g., Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Some more sophisticated approaches including this argument are Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985); Crawford Young, The Politics of Cultural Pluralism (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1976); and Elizabeth Crighton and Martha Abele MacIver, "The Evolution of Protracted Ethnic Conflict: Group Dominance and Political Underdevelopment in Northern Ireland and Lebanon," Comparative Politics, Vol. 23, No. 2 (January 1991), pp. 127-142.
4. See, e.g., Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Some more sophisticated approaches including this argument are Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985); Crawford Young, The Politics of Cultural Pluralism (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1976); and Elizabeth Crighton and Martha Abele MacIver, "The Evolution of Protracted Ethnic Conflict: Group Dominance and Political Underdevelopment in Northern Ireland and Lebanon," Comparative Politics, Vol. 23, No. 2 (January 1991), pp. 127-142.
5. Among the first to publish this insight was Barry R. Posen in "The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict," Survival, Vol. 35, No. 1 (Spring 1993), pp. 27-47.
6. Carol Tavris, Anger: The Misunderstood Emotion, rev. ed. (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1989), p. 91.
7. Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. and trans. by Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976 [1832]), pp. 137-138 and passim.
8. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict.
9. Jack L. Snyder, "Perceptions of the Security Dilemma in 1914," in Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds. Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985).
10. Donald Horowitz, "Making Moderation Pay: The Comparative Politics of Ethnic Conflict Management," in Joseph V. Montville, ed., Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1990).
11. Horowitz, "Making Moderation Pay."
12. Stephen Van Evera, "Hypotheses on Nationalism and War," International Security, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Spring 1994), pp. 5-39.
13. Horowitz, "Making Moderation Pay."
14. Horowitz, "Making Moderation Pay."
15. I show the presence of these factors in Yugoslavia and Azerbaijan in Stuart J. Kaufman, "An 'International' Theory of Interethnic War," Review of International Studies, Vol. 22, No. 2 (April 1996), pp. 149-171. On Georgia, see Stephen S. Jones, "Populism in Georgia: the Gamsakhurdia Phenomenon," in Donald Schwartz and Razmik Panossian, eds., Nationalism and History: The Politics of Nation Building in Post-Soviet Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1994), pp. 127-149. On Sri Lanka, see K.M. de Silva, Managing Ethnic Tensions in Multi-Ethnic Societies: Sri Lanka 1880-1985 (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1986).
16. I show the presence of these factors in Yugoslavia and Azerbaijan in Stuart J. Kaufman, "An 'International' Theory of Interethnic War," Review of International Studies, Vol. 22, No. 2 (April 1996), pp. 149-171. On Georgia, see Stephen S. Jones, "Populism in Georgia: the Gamsakhurdia Phenomenon," in Donald Schwartz and Razmik Panossian, eds., Nationalism and History: The Politics of Nation Building in Post-Soviet Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1994), pp. 127-149. On Sri Lanka, see K.M. de Silva, Managing Ethnic Tensions in Multi-Ethnic Societies: Sri Lanka 1880-1985 (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1986).
17. I show the presence of these factors in Yugoslavia and Azerbaijan in Stuart J. Kaufman, "An 'International' Theory of Interethnic War," Review of International Studies, Vol. 22, No. 2 (April 1996), pp. 149-171. On Georgia, see Stephen S. Jones, "Populism in Georgia: the Gamsakhurdia Phenomenon," in Donald Schwartz and Razmik Panossian, eds., Nationalism and History: The Politics of Nation Building in Post-Soviet Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1994), pp. 127-149. On Sri Lanka, see K.M. de Silva, Managing Ethnic Tensions in Multi-Ethnic Societies: Sri Lanka 1880-1985 (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1986).
18. See Michael E. Brown, "The Causes and Regional Dimensions of Internal Conflict," in Michael E. Brown, ed., The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996), p. 586.
19. See V.P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 130-166.
20. Stuart J. Kaufman, "The Irresistible Force and the Imperceptible Object: The Yugoslav Breakup and Western Policy," Security Studies, Vol. 4, No. 2 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 281-329. In this case, there was also some popular chauvinism on the Croatian side.
21. Kaufman, "The Irresistible Force and the Imperceptible Object."
22. The "Romanian" and "Moldovan" languages are identical. The choice of one or the other term depends on one's political preferences rather than any linguistic criterion. See Charles King, "Moldovan Identity and the Politics of Pan-Romanianism," Slavic Review, Vol. 53, No. 2 (Summer 1994), pp. 345-368.
23. King, "Moldovan Identity and the Politics of Pan-Romanianism," pp. 347-348.
24. Nicholas Dima, From Moldavia to Moldova (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991), pp. 94-98.
25. William Crowther, "The Politics of Mobilization: Nationalism and Reform in Soviet Moldavia," Russian Review, Vol. 50, No. 2 (April 1991), pp. 186-187; and Jonathan Eyal, "Moldavians," in Graham Smith, ed., The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union (New York: Longman, 1990), p. 127.
26. William Crowther, "The Politics of Mobilization: Nationalism and Reform in Soviet Moldavia," Russian Review, Vol. 50, No. 2 (April 1991), pp. 186-187; and Jonathan Eyal, "Moldavians," in Graham Smith, ed., The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union (New York: Longman, 1990), p. 127.
27. On the situation in education, see Kathleen Mihalisko, "Komsomolskaia Pravda Defends Special Historical Issue of Moldavian Student Newspaper," Radio Liberty Research Bulletin, RL 182/88 (April 27, 1988), pp. 1-3; on workers' complaints, see Current Digest of the Soviet Press (hereafter CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 16 (May 17, 1989), pp. 6-8; on the state of the language, see CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 27 (August 2, 1989), pp. 9-10.
28. On the situation in education, see Kathleen Mihalisko, "Komsomolskaia Pravda Defends Special Historical Issue of Moldavian Student Newspaper," Radio Liberty Research Bulletin, RL 182/88 (April 27, 1988), pp. 1-3; on workers' complaints, see Current Digest of the Soviet Press (hereafter CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 16 (May 17, 1989), pp. 6-8; on the state of the language, see CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 27 (August 2, 1989), pp. 9-10.
29. On the situation in education, see Kathleen Mihalisko, "Komsomolskaia Pravda Defends Special Historical Issue of Moldavian Student Newspaper," Radio Liberty Research Bulletin, RL 182/88 (April 27, 1988), pp. 1-3; on workers' complaints, see Current Digest of the Soviet Press (hereafter CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 16 (May 17, 1989), pp. 6-8; on the state of the language, see CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 27 (August 2, 1989), pp. 9-10.
30. See, e.g., the leadership's official call to "rebuff nationalists" in Sovetskaia Moldavia (Kishinev), July 16, 1989, p. 1. For the general attitude of the media, compare CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 7 (March 15, 1989), with CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 46 (December 13, 1989), pp. 21-22.
31. See, e.g., the leadership's official call to "rebuff nationalists" in Sovetskaia Moldavia (Kishinev), July 16, 1989, p. 1. For the general attitude of the media, compare CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 7 (March 15, 1989), with CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 46 (December 13, 1989), pp. 21-22.
32. See, e.g., the leadership's official call to "rebuff nationalists" in Sovetskaia Moldavia (Kishinev), July 16, 1989, p. 1. For the general attitude of the media, compare CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 7 (March 15, 1989), with CDSP, Vol. 41, No. 46 (December 13, 1989), pp. 21-22.
33. Vladimir Socor, "Politics of the Language Question Heating Up in Soviet Moldavia," RFE/RL Report on the USSR, Vol. 1, No. 46 (September 8, 1989), p. 35.
34. Crowther, "Politics of Mobilization," pp. 192-196.
35. Vladimir Rylyakov, former Member of Moldovan Parliament, March 1995 interview, Tiraspol.
36. CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 21 (June 27, 1990), pp. 14-16.
37. Socor, "The Moldavian Democratic Movement: Structure, Program, and Initial Impact," RFE/RL Report on the USSR, Vol. 1, No. 8, (February 24, 1989), pp. 31-32.
38. Some evidence of tolerance among Moldovans, as measured in mass opinion surveys, is in Stuart Kaufman, Leokadia Drobizheva, and Airat Aklaev, "Nationalist Mobilization in Estonia and Moldova," paper prepared for American Political Science Association meeting, New York, September 1994.
39. See Sovetskaia Moldavia, April 11, 1990, p. 1; and ibid., April 18, 1990, p. 2.
40. See Sovetskaia Moldavia, April 11, 1990, p. 1; and ibid., April 18, 1990, p. 2.
41. Dnestrovskaia Pravda (Tiraspol), May 4, 1990, p. 3.
42. Sovetskaia Moldavia, September 4, 1990, p. 1.
43. Valeriu Muravschi, March 1995 interview, Chisinau.
44. Sovetskaia Moldavia, November 4, 1990, p. 1.
45. Kostash was described by Nicolae Chirtoaca, former national security aid to President Snegur, and Druc by Viktor Grebenschikov, former aide to Druc, currently aide to President Snegur, March 1995 interviews with Chirtoaca and Grebenschikov, Chisinau.
46. Dnestrovskaia Pravda, September 7, 1989, p. 2.
47. Sovetskaia Moldavia, August 25, 1989, p. 3.
48. Socor, "Politics of the Language Question," pp. 33-34; cf. Crowther, "Politics of Mobilization."
49. Socor, "Politics of the Language Question," pp. 33-34; cf. Crowther, "Politics of Mobilization."
50. Dnestrovskaia Pravda, September 2, 1989, p. 1; ibid., September 5, 1989, p. 3; ibid., September 23, 1989, p. 3.
51. Dnestrovskaia Pravda, September 2, 1989, p. 1; ibid., September 5, 1989, p. 3; ibid., September 23, 1989, p. 3.
52. Dnestrovskaia Pravda, September 2, 1989, p. 1; ibid., September 5, 1989, p. 3; ibid., September 23, 1989, p. 3.
53. See, e.g., Dnestrovskaia Pravda, September 6, 1991, p. 1.
54. CDSP, Vol. 43, No. 46 (December 18, 1991), p. 12; and CDSP, Vol. 43, No. 50 (January 15, 1992), p. 29.
55. CDSP, Vol. 43, No. 46 (December 18, 1991), p. 12; and CDSP, Vol. 43, No. 50 (January 15, 1992), p. 29.
56. Stefan Uratu, Chairman, Tiraspol Heisinki Watch Committee, March 1995 interview, Chisinau.
57. Pal Kolsto and Andrei Edemsky with Natalya Kalashnikova, "The Dniestr Conflict: Between Irredentism and Separatism," Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 45, No. 6 (1993), pp. 985-986.
58. Foreign Broadcast Information Service Daily Report: USSR (hereafter FBIS), March 18, 1992, p. 55.
59. Dnestrovskaia Pravda, September 27, 1991, p. 1; ibid., September 6, 1991, p. 1.
60. Dnestrovskaia Pravda, September 27, 1991, p. 1; ibid., September 6, 1991, p. 1.
61. Vladimir Solonari, Member of the Moldovan Parliament, March 1995 interview, Chisinau.
62. Socor, "Moldova's 'Dniester' Ulcer," RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 1 (January 1, 1993), p. 14. Cf. Neil V. Lamont, "Territorial Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict: The Moldovan Case, 1991-March 1993," Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 6, No. 4 (December 1993), pp. 576-612.
63. Socor, "Moldova's 'Dniester' Ulcer," RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 1 (January 1, 1993), p. 14. Cf. Neil V. Lamont, "Territorial Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict: The Moldovan Case, 1991-March 1993," Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 6, No. 4 (December 1993), pp. 576-612.
64. Charles King, "Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russian Face," Foreign Policy, No. 97 (Winter 1994), p. 111.
65. Charles King, "Moldova and the New Bessarabian Questions," World Today, Vol. 49, No. 7 (July 1993), p. 137.
66. CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 35 (October 3, 1990), pp. 27-28; CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 43 (November 28, 1990), pp. 5-6.
67. CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 35 (October 3, 1990), pp. 27-28; CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 43 (November 28, 1990), pp. 5-6.
68. Valeriu Motei, March 1995 interview, Chisinau. Motei was a member of a Moldovan delegation which met with Gorbachev on the issue.
69. Stefan Uratu, March 1995 interview, Chisinau.
70. See Krasnaia zvezda, September 8, 1990, p. 5, trans. in FBIS, September 12, 1990, p. 98 ; and Krasnaia zvezda, April 5, 1990, trans. in FBIS, April 23, 1990, p. 135.
71. See Krasnaia zvezda, September 8, 1990, p. 5, trans. in FBIS, September 12, 1990, p. 98 ; and Krasnaia zvezda, April 5, 1990, trans. in FBIS, April 23, 1990, p. 135.
72. See Krasnaia zvezda, September 8, 1990, p. 5, trans. in FBIS, September 12, 1990, p. 98 ; and Krasnaia zvezda, April 5, 1990, trans. in FBIS, April 23, 1990, p. 135.
73. Izvestia, November 5, 1990, trans. in CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 43 (November 28, 1990), p. 7; and Izvestia, November 15, 1990, trans. in CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 46 (December 19, 1990), p. 24.
74. Izvestia, November 5, 1990, trans. in CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 43 (November 28, 1990), p. 7; and Izvestia, November 15, 1990, trans. in CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 46 (December 19, 1990), p. 24.
75. TASS, April 26, 1991, reprinted in FBIS, April 29, 1991, p. 55.
76. Izvestia, June 12, 1992, trans. in CDSP, Vol. 44, No. 24 (July 15, 1992), p. 13.
77. See Izvestia, March 6, 1992, trans. in FBIS, March 11, 1992, p. 55; and Izvestia, March 11, 1992, trans. in FBIS, March 12, 1992, p. 29.
78. See Izvestia, March 6, 1992, trans. in FBIS, March 11, 1992, p. 55; and Izvestia, March 11, 1992, trans. in FBIS, March 12, 1992, p. 29.
79. TASS, September 23, 1991, trans. in FBIS, September 24, 1991, p. 77.
80. The fact that the 14th Army provided the Dnestrians with weapons was confirmed by Colonel Mikhail Bergman, Tiraspol garrison commandant, 14th Russian Army, March 1995 interview, Tiraspol. Cf. Interfax March 18, 1992, reprinted in FBIS, March 19, 1992, p. 72.
81. TASS, September 23, 1991, trans. in FBIS, September 24, 1991, p. 77.
82. Radio Odin, March 26, 1992, trans. in FBIS, March 26, 1992, p. 66.
83. King, "Moldova with a Russian Face," p. 112.
84. Socor, "Moldova's 'Dniestr' Ulcer"; cf. CDSP, Vol. 43, No. 50 (January 15, 1992), pp. 28-30.
85. CDSP, Vol. 44, No. 28 (August 12, 1992), p. 19.
86. CDSP, Vol. 44, No. 29 (August 19, 1992), pp. 20-21; CDSP, Vol. 44, No. 32 (September 9, 1992), p. 21.
87. CDSP, Vol. 44, No. 29 (August 19, 1992), pp. 20-21; CDSP, Vol. 44, No. 32 (September 9, 1992), p. 21.
88. CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 27 (August 5, 1992), p. 13; CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 30 (August 26, 1992), p. 20.
89. CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 27 (August 5, 1992), p. 13; CDSP, Vol. 42, No. 30 (August 26, 1992), p. 20.
90. Vladimir Socor, "Isolated Moldova Being Pulled into Russian Orbit," RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 50 (December 17, 1993), pp. 9-15.
91. See Thomas Goltz, "Letter from Eurasia: The Hidden Russian Hand," Foreign Policy, No. 92 (Fall 1993), pp. 92-116, on the Transcausasus; and Keith Martin, "Tajikistan: Civil War Without End?" RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 33 (August 20, 1993), pp. 18-29, on Tajikistan.
92. See Thomas Goltz, "Letter from Eurasia: The Hidden Russian Hand," Foreign Policy, No. 92 (Fall 1993), pp. 92-116, on the Transcausasus; and Keith Martin, "Tajikistan: Civil War Without End?" RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 33 (August 20, 1993), pp. 18-29, on Tajikistan.
93. A discussion of reassurance policies is in Janice Gross Stein, "Deterrence and Reassurance," in Philip E. Tetlock et al., eds., Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, Vol. 2 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 8-72.
94. Stuart J. Kaufman, "Preventive Peacekeeping, Ethnic Violence, and Macedonia," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 19, No. 3 (July-September 1996), pp. 229-246.