Problems in extinction model selection and parameter estimation

Environmental Management

Volumn 26, Issue 1 SUPPL. 1, 2000, Pages

  Foley, Patrick ^a  

^a CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian estimation; Extinction; Population biology database; Population viability analysis; Stochasticity

Indexed keywords

CONSERVATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PARAMETER ESTIMATION; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

POPULATION VIABILITY;

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION;

CONSERVATION PLANNING; MINIMUM VIABLE POPULATION; NATURE CONSERVATION; POPULATION MODELING;

BAYES THEOREM; CONFERENCE PAPER; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; MONITORING; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; POPULATION MODEL; PREDICTION; STOCHASTIC MODEL;

EID: 0034040535     PISSN: 0364152X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s002670010062     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (139)

1. Allee, W. C., A. E. Emerson, and others. 1949. Principles of animal ecology. W. B. Saunders, Philadelphia, PA.
2. Baker, R. R. 1978. The evolutionary ecology of animal migration. Holmes & Meier, New York, NY.
3. Begon, M., J. Harper, and others. 1996. Ecology: individuals, populations and communities. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Boston, MA.
4. Beier, P. 1996. Metapopulation models, tenacious tracking, and cougar conservation. Pages 293-323 in D. R. McCullough (ed.), Metapopulations and wildlife conservation; First Annual Meeting of the Wildlife Society, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, September 22, 1994. Island Press, Washington, DC.
5. Beier, P., D. Choate, and others. 1995. Movement patterns of mountain lions during different behaviors. Journal of Mammalogy 76(4):1056-1070.
6. Bell, G. 1982. The masterpiece of nature. The evolution and genetics of sexuality. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
7. Bibby, C. J., N. D. Burgess, and others. 1992. Bird census techniques. Academic Press, London.
8. Bickel, P. J., and K. A. Doksum. 1977. Mathematical statistics: basic ideas and selected topics. Holden-Day, San Francisco, CA.
9. Bond, W. J. 1995. Assessing the risk of plant extinction due to pollinator and disperser failure. Pages 131-146 in J. H. Lawton and R. M. May (eds.), Extinction rates. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
10. Brook, B. W., L. Lim, R. Harden and R. Frankham. 1997a. Does population viability analysis software predict the behavior of real populations? Biological Conservation 82:119-128.
11. Brook, B. W., L. Lim, R. Harden and R. Frankham. 1997b. How secure is the Lord Howe Island Woodhen? A population viability analysis using VORTEX. Pacific Conservation Biology 3:125-133.
12. Brown, D., and P. Rothery. 1993. Models in biology. New York.
13. Buchmann, S. L. 1996. Competition between honey bees and native bees in the Sonoran Desert and global bee conservation issues. Pages 125-142 in A. Matheson and others (eds.), Linnean Society Symposium Series, No. 18. The conservation of bees; Joint Symposium of the International Bee Research Association and the Linnean Society of London, April 1995. Academic Press, London.
14. Buchmann, S. L., and G. P. Nabhan. 1996. The forgotten pollinators. Island Press, Washington, DC.
15. Burgman, M. A., S. Ferson, and others. 1993. Risk assessment in conservation biology. Chapman & Hall, London.
16. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 1998. Model selection and inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.
17. Carey, J. R. 1993. Applied demography for biologists with special emphasis on insects. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
18. Carlin, B. P., and T. A. Louis. 1996. Bayes and empirical Bayes methods for data analysis. Chapman & Hall, London.
19. Caswell, H. 1989. Matrix population models. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA.
20. Caswell, H., and L. V. Martin. 1993. Life table response experiments with quantitative treatments a new method for decomposing effects on population growth rate. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 74(2 Suppl.):188-189.
21. Caughley, G. 1994. Directions in conservation biology. Journal of Animal Ecology 63:215-244.
22. Caughley, G., and A. Gunn. 1996. Conservation biology in theory and practice. Blackwell, Cambridge.
23. Crow, J. F., and M. Kimura. 1970. An introduction to population genetics theory. Harper & Row, New York, NY.
24. DeAngelis, D. L., and L. J. Gross (eds.) 1992. Individual-based models and approaches in ecology. Chapman & Hall, London.
25. Deng, H. W., and M. Lynch. 1996. Estimation of deleterious-mutation parameters in natural populations. Genetics 144(1):349-360.
26. Dennis, B. 1996. Discussion: should ecologists become Bayesians? Ecological Applications 6(4):1095-1103.
27. Dennis, B., P. L. Munholland, and others. 1991. Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species. Ecological Monographs 61:115-143.
28. Ebert, T. A. 1999. Plant and animal populations methods in demography. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
29. Edelstein-Keshet, L. 1988. Mathematical models in biology. Random House, New York, NY.
30. Edwards, A. W. F. 1992. Likelihood. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.
31. Edwards, D. 1996. Comment: the first data analysis should be journalistic. Ecological Applications 6:1090-1094.
32. Ellison, A. M. 1995. An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 76(2 Suppl. part 2):76.
33. Elmes, G. W., and J. A. Thomas. 1992. Complexity of species conservation in managed habitats: interaction between Maculinea butterflies and their ant hosts. Biodiversity Conservation 1:155-169.
34. Elmes, G. W., R. T. Clarke, and others. 1996. Empirical test of specific predictions made from a spatial model of the population dynamics of Maculinea rebeli, a parasitic butterfly of red ant colonies. Acta Oecologica 17(1):61-80.
35. Ewens, W. J. 1979. Mathematical population genetics. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
36. Ewens, W. J., F. J. Brockwell, and others. 1987. Minimum viable population size in the presence of catastrophes. Pages 50-68 in M. E. Soule, (ed.), Viable populations for conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
37. Ferson, S., and M. A. Burgman. 1995. Correlations, dependency bounds and extinction risks. Biological Conservation 73(2):101-105.
38. Feyerabend, P. K. 1975. Against method: outline of an anarchistic theory of knowledge. Humanities Press, Atlantic Highlands, NJ.
39. Foley, P. 1992. Small population genetic variation at loci under stabilizing selection. Evolution 46:763-774.
40. Foley, P. 1994. Predicting extinction times from environmental stochasticity and carrying capacity. Conservation Biology 8(1):124-137.
41. Foley, P. 1997. Extinction models for local populations. Pages 215-246 in I. Hanski and M. Gilpin (eds.), Metapopulation biology. Academic Press, New York, NY.
42. Frankie, G. W., R. W. Thorp, and others. 1998. Monitoring solitary bees in modified wildland habitats: Implications for bee ecology and conservation. Environmental Entomology 27(5):1137-1148.
43. Franklin, I. R. 1980. Evolutionary change in small populations. Pages 135-149 in M. E. Soule, and B. A. Wilcox (eds.), Conservation biology. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA.
44. Gause, G. F. 1934. The struggle for existence. Hafner Press, New York, NY.
45. Gelman, A., J. B. Carlin, and others. 1995. Bayesian data analysis. Chapman & Hall, London.
46. Gilpin, M., and I. Hanski, eds. 1991. Metapopulation dynamics. Academic Press, London.
47. Gilpin, M. E. 1990. Extinction in finite metapopulations in correlated environments. Pages 177-186 in B. Shorrocks and I. Swingland (eds.), Environments. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
48. Goodman, D. 1987. Consideration of stochastic demography in the design and management of biological reserves. Natural Resource Modeling 1:205-234.
49. Grant, B. R., and P. R. Grant. 1979. Evolutionary dynamics of a natural population: the large cactus finch of the Galapagos. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
50. Grasman, J. 1996. The expected extinction time of a population within a system of interacting biological populations. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 58(3):555-568.
51. Groom, M. J., and M. A. Pascual. 1998. The analysis of population persistence: an outlook on the practice of viability analysis. Pages 4-27 in P. L. Fiedler and P. M. Kareiva (eds.), Conservation biology, 2nd ed. Chapman & Hall, London.
52. Gurney, W. S. C., and R. M. Nisbet. 1998. Ecological dynamics. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
53. Hairston, N. G. 1989. Ecological experiments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
54. Hall, C. A. S. 1988. An assessment of several of the historically most influential theoretical models used in ecology and of the data provided in their support. Ecological Modelling 43: 5-31.
55. Hanski, I. 1998. Connecting the parameters of local extinction and metapopulation dynamics. Oikos 83:390-396.
56. Hanski, I., P. Foley, and others. 1996. Random walks in a metapopulation: how much density dependence is necessary for long-term persistence? Journal of Animal Ecology 65(3):274-282.
57. Hanski, I. A., and M. E. Gilpin, eds. 1997. Metapopulation biology. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
58. Hanson, F. B., and H. C. Tuckwell. 1978. Persistence times of populations with large random fluctuations. Theoretical Population Biology 14:46-61.
59. Hanson, F. B., and H. C. Tuckwell. 1981. "Logistic growth with random density-independent disasters." Theoretical Population Biology 19:1-18.
60. Harrison, S. 1991. Local extinction in a metapopulation context: an empirical evaluation. Pages 73-88 in M. Gilpin and I. Hanski (eds.), Metapopulation dynamics. Academic Press, London.
61. Harrison, S., and J. F. Quinn. 1989. Correlated environments and the persistence of metapopulations. Oikos 56:293-298.
62. Harrison, S., D. D. Murphy, and others. 1988. Distribution of the bay area checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis: evidence for a metapopulation model. American Naturalist 132:360-382.
63. Hedrick, P. W., R. C. Lacy, and others. 1996. Directions in conservation biology: comments on Caughley. Conservation Biology 10(5):1312-1320.
64. Hilborn, R., and M. Mangel. 1997. Monographs in Population Biology, 28. The ecological detective: confronting models with data. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
65. Janzen, D. H. 1974. The deflowering of Central America. Natural History 83:49-53.
66. Johst, K., and C. Wissel. 1997. Extinction risk in a temporally correlated fluctuating environment. Theoretical Population Biology 52(2):91-100.
67. Kaneshiro, K. Y. 1988. Speciation in the Hawaiian Drosophila. BioScience 38:258-263.
68. Kareiva, P., and U. Wennergren. 1995. Connecting landscape patterns to ecosystem and population processes. Nature (London) 373(6512):299-302.
69. Keyfitz, N. 1985. Applied mathematical demography. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
70. Kimura, M. 1964. Diffusion models in population genetics. Methuen, London.
71. Kimura, M. 1983. The neutral theory of evolution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
72. Krombein, K. V. 1967. Trap-nesting wasps and bees: life histories, nests, and associates. Smithsonian Press, Washington, D.C.
73. Kuhn, T. S. 1962. The structure of scientific revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
74. Lacy, R. C., and J. D. Ballou. 1998. Effectiveness of selection in reducing the genetic load in populations of Peromyscus polionotus during generations of inbreeding. Evolution 52(3): 900-909.
75. Lakatos, I. 1983. The methodology of scientific research programmes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
76. Lakatos, I., and A. Musgrave. 1970. Criticism and the growth of knowledge. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
77. Lande, R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. American Naturalist 142(6):911-927.
78. Lande, R. 1995. Mutation and conservation. Conservation Biology 9(4):782-791.
79. Lande, R. 1998a. Demographic stochasticity and Allee effect on a scale with isotropic noise. Oikos 83(2):353-358.
80. Lande, R. 1998b. Risk of population extinction from fixation of deleterious and reverse mutations. Genetica 102-103(1-6):21-27.
81. Lande, R., S. Engen, and others. 1998. Extinction times in finite metapopulation models with stochastic local dynamics. Oikos 83(2):383-389.
82. Leigh, E. G. 1981. The average lifetime of a population in a varying environment. Journal of Theoretical Biology 90:213-239.
83. Levins, R. 1966. The strategy of model building in population biology. American Scientist 54:421-431.
84. Levins, R. 1969. Some demographic and genetic consequences of environmental heterogeneity for biological control. Bulletin of the Entomological Society of America 15:237-240.
85. Levins, R. 1970. Extinction. Pages 77-107 in M. Gerstenhaber (ed.), Some mathematical problems in biology. American Mathematical Society, Providence, RI.
86. Lomnicki, A. 1988. Population ecology of individuals. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
87. Ludwig, D. 1996a. The distribution of population survival times. American Naturalist 147(4):506-526.
88. Ludwig, D. 1996b. Uncertainty and the assessment of extinction probabilities. Ecological Applications 6(4):1067-1076.
89. Ludwig, D. 1999. Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction? Ecology 80:298-310.
90. Lynch, M. 1997. Mutation accumulation and the extinction of small populations. Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis 29(Suppl. 28):32.
91. Lynch, M., R. B. D. Butcher, and others. 1993. The mutational meltdown in asexual populations. Journal of Heredity 84(5): 339-344.
92. Lynch, M., J. Conery, and others. 1995a. Mutation accumulation and the extinction of small populations. American Naturalist 146(4):489-518.
93. Lynch, M., J. Conery, and others. 1995b. Mutational melt-downs in sexual populations. Evolution 49(6):1067-1080.
94. Lynch, M., and W. Gabriel. 1990. Mutation load and the survival of small populations. Evolution 44:1725-1737.
95. MacArthur, R. H., and E. O. Wilson. 1963. An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography. Evolution 17:373-387.
96. MacArthur, R. H., and E. O. Wilson. 1967. The theory of island biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
97. Mace, G. M., and R. Lande. 1991. Assessing extinction threats - toward a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories. Conservation Biology 5(2):148-157.
98. Mangel, M., and C. Tier. 1993a. Dynamics of metapopulations with demographic stochasticity and environmental catastrophes. Theoretical Population Biology 44(1):1-31.
99. Mangel, M., and C. Tier. 1993b. A simple direct method for finding persistence times of populations and application to conservation problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 90(3):1083-1086.
100. Mangel, M., and C. Tier. 1994. Four facts every conservation biologist should know about persistence. Ecology (Tempe) 75(3):607-614.
101. Matheson, A., S. L. Buchmann, and others, eds. 1996. The conservation of bees. Academic Press, London.
102. Maynard Smith, J. 1978. The evolution of sex. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
103. McCullough, D. R., ed. 1996. Metapopulations and wildlife conservation. Island Press, Washington, DC.
104. Menges, E. S. 1990. Population viability analysis for an endangered plant. Conservation Biology 4:52-62.
105. Middleton, D. A. J., and R. M. Nisbet. 1997. Population persistence time: estimates models, and mechanisms. Ecological Applications 7(1):107-117.
106. Middleton, D. A. J., A. R. Veitch, and others. 1995. The effect of an upper limit to population size on persistence time. Theoretical Population Biology 48(3):277-305.
107. Morrison, M. L., B. G. Marcot, and others. 1992. Wildlife-habitat relationships. University of Wisconsin Press, Madison, WI.
108. Murray, J. D. 1993. Mathematical biology. Springer, New York.
109. Nabhan, G. P., and S. Buchmann. 1995. Disrupted plant-pollinator relationships in the U.S.-Mexico border states: effects of chemically-induced habitat fragmentation. American Journal of Botany 82(6 Suppl.):3.
110. Nisbet, R. M., and W. S. C. Gurney. 1982. Modelling fluctuating populations. Wiley, New York.
111. Oakes, M. 1986. Statistical inference. Wiley, New York.
112. Oostermeijer, G., S. Luijten, and others. 1998. Rare plants in peril: on the problems of small populations. Levende Natuur 99(4):134-141.
113. Petchey, O. L., A. Gonzalez, and others. 1997. Effects of population persistence: the interaction between environmental noise colour, intraspecific competition and space. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences 264(1389):1841-1847.
114. Pettersson, M. W. 1996. Pollination in small populations: about plant protection of threatened species. Vaxtskyddsnotiser 60(1):14-16.
115. Pollard, E., and T. J. Yates. 1993. Monitoring butterflies for ecology and conservation. Chapman & Hall, London.
116. Popper, K. R. 1959. The logic of scientific discovery. Basic Books, New York.
117. Popper, K. R. 1972. Objective knowledge; an evolutionary approach. Clarendon Press, Oxford.
118. Powell, J. 1997. Progress and prospects in evolutionary biology, the Drosophila model. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
119. Press, S. J. 1989. Bayesian statistics: principles, models, and applications. Wiley, New York.
120. Rails, K., J. D. Ballou, and others. 1988. Estimates of lethal equivalents and the cost of inbreeding in mammals. Conservation Biology 2:185-193.
121. Rama, E., V. Kaitala, and others. 1995. Synchrony in population dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society oj London Series B Biological Sciences 262(1364):113-118.
122. Richter-Dyn, N., and N. S. Goel. 1972. On the extinction of a colonizing species. Theoretical Population Biology 3:406-433.
123. Ripa, J., and P. Lundberg. 1996. Noise colour and the risk of population extinctions. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences 263(1377):1751-1 753.
124. Rotenberry, J. T. 1986. Habitat relationships of shrubsteppe birds: even "good" models cannot predict the future. Pages 217-221 in J. Verner, M. L. Morrison, and C. J. Ralph (eds.), Wildlife 2000. Modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates. University of Wisconsin Press, Madison, WI.
125. Roughgarden, J. 1979. Theory of population genetics and evolutionary ecology. Macmillan, New York.
126. Royama, T. 1992. Analytical population dynamics. Chapman & Hall, London.
127. Semlitsch, R. D., D. E. Scott, J. H. K. Pechmann and J. W. Gibbons. 1996. Structure and dynamics of an amphibian community. Pages 217-250 in M. L. Cody and J. A. Smallwood (eds.), Long-term studies of vertebrate communities. Academic Press, San Diego.
128. Shepard, B. B., B. Sanborn, and others. 1997. Status and risk extinction for westlope cutthroat trout in the Upper Missouri River basin, Montana. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 17(4):1158-1172.
129. Simberloff, D. 1978. Using island biogeographic distributions to determine if colonization is stochastic. American Naturalist 112:713-726.
130. Taylor, B. L. 1995. Bayesian recovery criteria for spectacled eiders. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 76(2 Suppl. part 2):261.
131. Taylor, B. L., and T. Gerrodette. 1993. The uses of statistical power in conservation biology: the vaquita and northern spotted owl. Conservation Biology 7(3):489-500.
132. Taylor, B. L., P. R. Wade, and others. 1996. A Bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders. Ecological Applications 6(4):1077-1089.
133. Thomas, C. D., M. C. Singer, and others. 1996. Catastrophic extinction of population sources in a butterfly metapopulatiori. American Naturalist 148(6):957-975.
134. Tier, C., and F. B. Hanson. 1981. Persistence in density dependent stochastic populations. Mathematical Biosciences 53: 89-117.
135. Tuljapurkar, S. 1990. Population dynamics in variable environments. Springer-Verlag, New York.
136. Turchin, P. 1997. Quantitative analysis of animal movements in congregations. Pages 107-112 in J. K. Parrish and W. M. Hamner (eds.), Animal groups in three dimensions. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
137. Turelli, M. 1977. Random environments and stochastic calculus. Theoretical Population Biology 12:140-178.
138. Wolfram, S. 1996. The mathematica book. Cambridge University' Press, Cambridge.
139. Wynne-Edwards, V. C. 1962. Animal dispersion in relation to social behavior. Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh.