Population persistence time: Estimates, models, and mechanisms

Ecological Applications

Volumn 7, Issue 1, 1997, Pages 107-117

  Middleton, D A J ^a,c   Nisbet, R M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

Author keywords

Acorn woodpecker; Extinction; Fragmentation; Melanerpes formicivorus; Population persistence time; Population regulation

Indexed keywords

ACORN WOODPECKER; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; POPULATION REGULATION;

MELANERPES FORMICIVORUS;

EID: 0030616830     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0107:PPTEMA]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Capocelli, R. M., and L. M. Ricciardi. 1974. A diffusion model for population growth in a random environment. Theoretical Population Biology 5:28-41.
2. Caswell, H. 1989. Matrix population models. Sinauer, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA.
3. Dennis, B., P. L. Munholland, and J. M. Scott. 1991. Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species. Ecological Monographs 61:115-143.
4. Dennis, B., and M. L. Taper. 1994. Density dependence in time series observations of natural populations: estimation and testing. Ecological Monographs 64:205-224.
5. Efron, B. 1987. Better bootstrap confidence intervals (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 82:171-200.
6. Foley, P. 1994. Predicting extinction times from environmental stochasticity and carrying capacity. Conservation Biology 8:124-137.
7. Goodman, D. 1987a. Consideration of stochastic demography in the design and management of biological reserves. Natural Resource Modeling 1:205-234.
8. _. 1987b. The demography of chance extinction. Pages 11-34 in M. E. Soule, editor. Viable populations for conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
9. Gurney, W. S. C., and R. M. Nisbet. 1978. Single-species population fluctuations in patchy environments. American Naturalist 112:1075-1090.
10. Hall, P. 1988. Theoretical comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals. Annals of Statistics 16:927-953.
11. Hanski, I., and M. Gilpin. 1991. Metapopulation dynamics: brief history and conceptual domain. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 42:3-16.
12. Hanski, I., T. Pakkala, M. Kuussaari, and G. Lei. 1995. Metapopulation persistence of an endangered butterfly in a fragmented landscape. Oikos 72:21-28.
13. Heyde, C. C., and J. E. Cohen. 1985. Confidence intervals for demographic projections based on products of random matrices. Theoretical Population Biology 27:120-153.
14. Holyoak, M. 1993. New insights into testing for density dependence. Oecologia 93:435-444.
15. Lande, R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. American Naturalist 142:911-927.
16. Lande, R., and S. H. Orzack. 1988. Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 85:7418-7421.
17. Lewontin, R. C., and D. Cohen. 1969. On population growth in a randomly varying environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 62:1056-1060.
18. Mangel, M., and C. Tier. 1993. A simple direct method for finding persistence times of populations and application to conservation problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 90:1083-1086.
19. Middleton, D. A. J. 1993. Persistence of managed populations: simple models and an application to the Islay barnacle goose population. Dissertation. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
20. Middleton, D. A. J., R. M. Nisbet, and A. J. Kerr. 1993. A mathematical model of the effect of shooting barnacle geese wintering on Islay. Journal of Applied Ecology 30:1-12.
21. Middleton, D. A. J., A. R. Veitch, and R. M. Nisbet. 1995. The effect of an upper limit to population size on persistence time. Theoretical Population Biology 48:277-305.
22. Murdoch, W. W. 1994. Population regulation in theory and practice. Ecology 75:271-287.
23. Nisbet, R. M., and W. S. C. Gurney. 1982. Modelling fluctuating populations. Wiley, Chichester, UK.
24. Mobile, A. G., L. M. Ricciardi, and L. Sacerdote. 1985. Exponential trends of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck first-passage-time densities. Journal of Applied Probability 22:360-369.
25. Pollard, E., K. H. Lakhani, and P. Rothery. 1987. The detection of density-dependence from a series of annual censuses. Ecology 68:2046-2055.
26. Ricciardi, L. M. 1977. Diffusion processes and related topics in biology. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics 14.
27. Schoener, T. W., and D. A. Spiller. 1987. High population persistence in a system with high turnover. Nature 330: 474-477.
28. Shaffer, M. L. 1983. Determining minimum viable population sizes for the grizzly bear. International Conference on Bear Research and Management 5:133-139.
29. Stacey, P. B. 1979. Habitat saturation and communal breeding in the acorn woodpecker. Animal Behaviour 27:1153-1166.
30. Stacey, P. B., and M. Taper. 1992. Environmental variation and the persistence of small populations. Ecological Applications 2:18-29.
31. Statistical Sciences. 1993. S-PLUS Reference Manual, Version 3.2. StatSci, MathSoft, Seattle, Washington, USA.
32. Tuljapurkar, S. D. 1990. Population dynamics in variable environments. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics 85.
33. Tuljapurkar, S. D., and S. H. Orzack. 1980. Population dynamics in variable environments I. Long run growth rates and extinction. Theoretical Population Biology 18:314-342.
34. Turelli, M. 1986. Stochastic community theory: a partially guided tour. In T. G. Hallam and S. A. Levin, editors. Mathematical ecology. Biomathematics 17:321-339.
35. Verboom, J., K. Lankester, and J. A. J. Metz. 1991. Linking local and regional dynamics in stochastic metapopulation models. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 42:39-55.
36. Vickery, W. L. 1991. An evaluation of bias in k-factor analysis. Oecologia 85:413-418.