Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change

Quaternary Science Reviews

Volumn 19, Issue 1-5, 2000, Pages 439-457

  Knox, James C ^a  

^a Geography Department   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; FLOOD; HOLOCENE; PALEOFLOOD; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 0033982857     PISSN: 02773791     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00074-8     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (99)

1. Baker R.G., Maher L.J., Chumbley C.A., Van Zant K.L. Patterns of Holocene environmental change in the midwestern United States. Quaternary Research. 37:1992;379-389.
2. Baker R.G., Bettis E.A. III, Schwert D.P., Horton D.G., Chumbly C.A., Gonzalez L.A., Reagan M.G. Holocene paleoenvironments of northeast Iowa. Ecological Monographs. 66:1996;203-234.
3. Bartlein P.J., Webb T. III, Fleri E. Holocene climatic change in the northern Midwest: pollen-derived estimates. Quaternary Research. 22:1984;361-374.
4. Benito G., Baker V.R., Gregory K.J. Paleohydrology and Environmental Change. 1998;353 Wiley, Chichester.
5. Benito G., Machado M.J., Pérez-González A. Climate change and flood sensitivity in Spain. Branson J., Brown A.G., Gregory K.J. Global Continental Changes. the Context of Palaeohydrology Vol. 115:1996;85-98 Special Publication, Geological Society, London.
6. Bernabo J.C., Webb T. III Changing patterns in the Holocene pollen record of northeastern North America. a mapped summary Quaternary Research. 8:1977;64-96.
7. Branson J., Brown A.G., Gregory K.J. Global Continental Changes. the Context of Palaeohydrology Vol. 115:1996;272 Special Publication, Geological Society, London.
8. 2 upset the current balance? Science. 278:1997;1582-1588.
9. Brown A.G. Fluvial evidence of the Medieval Warm Period and the late Medieval climatic deterioration in Europe. Benito G., Baker V.R., Gregory K.J. Palaeohydrology and Environmental Change. 1998;43-52 Wiley, Chichester.
10. Davis O.K. Rapid climatic change in coastal southern California inferred from pollen analysis of San Joaquin marsh. Quaternary Research. 37:1991;89-100.
11. Davis O.K., Shafer D.S. A Holocene climatic record for the Sonoran Desert from pollen analysis of Montequma Well, Arizona. USA Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, and Palaeoecology. 92:1992;107-119.
12. Davis P. Holocene glacier fluctuations in the American Cordillera. Quaternary Science Reviews. 7:1988;129-157.
13. DeVries T.J., Ortlieb L., Diaz A., Wells L., Hillaire-Marcel Cl. Determining the early history of El Niño. Science. 276:1997;965-967.
14. Dorale J.A., Gonzalez L.A., Reagan M.K., Pickett D.A., Murrell M.T., Baker R.G. A high-resolution record of Holocene climate change in speleothem calcite from Coldwater Cave, northeast Iowa. Science. 258:1992;1626-1630.
15. Dyke, A.S., Prest, V.K., 1987. Late Wisconsinan and Holocene retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Geological Survey of Canada Map, 1702-A, scale 1:5 000 000.
16. EarthInfo Incorporated, 1997. NCDC Summary of the Day: Central, Compact Disc Data Storage. Boulder, Colorado.
17. Eltahir E.A.B. El Niño and the natural variability in the flow of the Nile River. Water Resources Research. 32:1996;131-137.
18. Ely L.L. Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climate variations in the late Holocene. Geomorphology. 19:1997;175-201.
19. Ely L.L., Baker V.R. Reconstructing paleoflood hydrology with slackwater deposits. Verde River Arizona Physical Geography. 6:1985;103-126.
20. Ely L.L., Enzel Y., Baker V.R., Cayan D.R. A 5000-year record of extreme floods and climate change in the southwestern United States. Science. 262:1993;410-412.
21. Ely L.L., Enzel Y., Baker V.R., Kale V.S., Mishra S. Changes in the magnitude and frequency of late Holocene monsoon floods on the Narmada River, central India. Geological Society of America Bulletin. 108:1996;1134-1148.
22. Enzel Y. Flood frequency of the Mojave River and the formation of late Holocene playa lakes, southern California. USA. The Holocene. 2:1992;11-18.
23. Fahnestock R.K. Morphology and hydrology of a glacial stream: White River, Mount Rainier. Washington. United States Geological Survey Professional Paper. 422-A:1963;A1-A70.
24. Fang J. Establishment of a data bank from records of climatic disasters and anomalies in ancient Chinese documents. International Journal of Climatology. 12:1992;499-519.
25. Gail S.J., Bainbridge S. Megafloods in inland eastern Australia, April 1990. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie. 38:1994;1-11.
26. Green, P.M., Legler, D.M., Miranda, C.J., O'Brien, J.J., 1997. The North American climate patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Project Report Series 97-1, Florida State University, Tallahassee, 8pp.
27. Gregory K.J. Background to Palaeohydrology. A Perspective:1983;486 Wiley, Chichester.
28. Gregory K.J., Starkel L., Baker V.R. Global Continental Palaeohydrology. 1995;334 Wiley, Chichester.
29. Hirschboeck K.K. Climate and floods: National Water Summary 1988-1989-Hydrologic Events and floods and droughts. United States Geological Survey Water Supply Paper. 2375:1991;67-88.
30. Hughes M.K., Diaz H.F. Was there a "Medieval Warm Period", and if so, where and when? Climatic Change. 26:1994;109-142.
31. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1998. In: Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H. (Eds.), The Regional Impact of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 517 pp.
32. Kale V.S., Ely L.L., Enzel Y., Baker V.R. Palaeo and historical flood hydrology, Indian Peninsula. Branson J., Brown A.G., Gregory K.J. Global Continental Changes. the Context of Palaeohydrology Vol. 115:1996;155-163 Special Publication, Geological Society of London.
33. Kalnicky R.A. Climatic change since 1950. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 64:1974;100-112.
34. Karl T.R., Knight R.W., Plummer N. Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century. Nature. 377:1995;217-220.
35. Karl T.R., Knight R.W., Easterling D.R., Quayle R.G. Indices of climate change for the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 77:1996;279-303.
36. Katz R.W., Brown B.G. Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change. 21:1992;289-302.
37. Kellerhals R. Stable channels with gravel-paved beds. Journal of Waterways and Harbors, Coastal Engineering Division. American Society of Civil Engineers. 93:1967;63-84.
38. Knox, J.C., 1975. Concept of the graded stream. In: Melhorn W.N., Flemal R.C., (Eds.), Theories of Landform Development. Publications in Geomorphology, State University of New York, Binghamton, pp. 169-198.
39. Knox J.C. Human impacts on Wisconsin stream channels. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 67:1977;323-342.
40. Knox J.C. Responses of river systems to Holocene climates. Wright H.E. Jr. Late Quaternary Environments of the United States. Vol. 2:1983;26-41 The Holocene. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.
41. Knox J.C. Fluvial response to small scale climate changes. Costa J.E., Fleisher P.J. Developments and Applications of Geomorphology. 1984;318-342 Springer, Berlin.
42. Knox J.C. Responses of floods to Holocene climatic change in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Quaternary Research. 23:1985;287-300.
43. Knox J.C. Climatic influence on Upper Mississippi Valley floods. Baker V.R., Kochel R.C., Patton P.C. Flood Geomorphology. 1988;279-300 Wiley, New York.
44. Knox J.C. Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate. Nature. 361:1993;430-432.
45. Knox J.C. Late Quaternary upper Mississippi River alluvial episodes and their significance to the lower Mississippi River system. Engineering Geology. 45:1996;263-285.
46. Knox J.C. Long-term episodic changes in magnitudes and frequencies of floods in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Brown A.G., Quine T.A. Fluvial Processes and Environmental Change. 1999;255-282 Wiley, Chichester.
47. Knox J.C., Bartlein P.J., Hirschboeck K.K., Muckenhirn R.J. The response of floods and sediment yields to climatic variation and land use in the Upper Mississippi Valley. University of Wisconsin. Madison, Institute for Environmental Studies Report. 52:1975;76.
48. Kochel R.C., Baker V.R. Paleoflood analysis using slackwater deposits. Baker V.R., Kochel R.C., Patton P.C. Flood Geomorphology. 1988;279-300 Wiley, New York.
49. Kutzbach J.E. Large-scale features of monthly mean northern hemisphere anomaly maps of sea-level pressure. Monthly Weather Review. 98:1970;708-716.
50. Kutzbach J.E. Monsoon climate of the early Holocene: climate experiments with the Earth's orbital parameters for 9000 years ago. Science. 214:1981;59-61.
51. Laird K.R., Fritz S.C., Maasch K.A., Cumming B.F. Greater drought intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the northern Great Plains. USA. Nature. 384:1996;552-554.
52. Laird K.R., Fritz S.C., Cumming B.F., Grimm E.C. Early-Holocene limnological and climatic variability in the northern Great Plains. The Holocene. 8:1998;275-285.
53. Lamb H.H. Climate in the 1960s. Geographical Journal. 132:1966;183-212.
54. Lamb, H.H., 1974. The current trend of world climate - a report on the early 1970s and a perspective. University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, Research Publication No. 3, Norwich, U.K., 28pp.
55. Lamb, H.H., 1977. Climate: Present, Past and Future, Vol. 2, Climatic History and the Future. Methuen & Co. Ltd., London, 835 pp.
56. Lane, E.W., Calson, E.J., 1953. Some factors affecting the stability of canals constructed in coarse granular materials. Proceedings of the 5th International Association of Hydraulic Research Congress, pp. 37-48.
57. Macklin M.G., Lewin J. Holocene river alluviation in Britain. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie. (Suppl. 88):1993;109-122.
58. Mandel, R.D., 1995. Geomorphic controls of the Archaic record in the Central Plains of the United States. In: Bettis, E.A., III (Ed.) Archaeological Geology of the Archaic Period in North America. Geological Society of America Special Paper 297, Boulder, pp. 37-66.
59. Mann M.E., Bradley R.S., Hughes M.K. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature. 392:1998;779-787.
60. Mason J.A., Knox J.C. Age of colluvium indicates accelerated Late Wisconsin hillslope erosion in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Geology. 25:1997;267-270.
61. McPhaden M.J. Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño. Science. 283:1999;950-954.
62. O'Connor, J.E., Ely, L.L., Wohl, E.E., Stevens, L.E., Melis, T.S., Kale, V.S., Baker, V.R., 1994. A 4500-year record of large floods on the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Journal of Geology 102, 1-9.
63. Overpeck J.T. Warm climate surprises. Science. 271:1996;1820-1821.
64. Pickup G., Allan G., Baker V.R. History, palaeochannels, and palaeofloods of the Finke River, central Australia. Warner R. Fluvial Geomorphology in Australia. 1988;177-200 Academic Press, Sydney, Australia.
65. Rodbell D.T., Seltzer G.O., Anderson D.M., Abbott M.B., Enfield D.B., Newman J.H. An~15,000-year record of El Niño-driven alluviation in southwestern Ecuador. Science. 283:1999;516-520.
66. Rumsby B.T., Macklin M.G. River response to the last neoglacial (the 'Little Ice Age') in northern, western and central Europe. Branson J., Brown A.G., Gregory K.J. Global Continental Changes. the Context of Palaeohydrology Vol. 115:1996;217-233 Special Publication, Geological Society, London.
67. Said R. The River Nile. Geology, Hydrology and Utilization:1993;Pergamon Press, Oxford.
68. Sandweiss D.H., Richardson III J.B., Reitz E.J., Rollins H.B., Maasch K.A. Geoarchaeological evidence from Peru for a 5000 years B.P. onset of El Niño. Science. 273:1996;1531-1533.
69. Schumm, S.A., 1973. Geomorphic thresholds and complex response of drainage systems. In: Morisawa M. (Ed.), Fluvial Geomorphology. Publications in Geomorphology, State University of New York, Binghamton, pp. 299-310.
70. Scott K.M., Gravlee G.C. Jr. Flood surge on the Rubicon River, California: hydrology, hydraulics, and boulder transport. United States Geological Survey Professional Pape. 422-M:1968;M1-M40.
71. Sorenson, C.J., 1977. Reconstructed Holocene bioclimates. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 67, 214-222.
72. Starkel L. Man as a cause of sedimentological changes in the Holocene: anthropogenic sedimentological changes during the Holocene. Striae. 26:1987;5-12.
73. Starkel L. Long-distance correlation of fluvial events in the temperate zone. Starkel L., Gregory K.J., Thornes J.B. Temperate Palaeohydrology. 1991;473-495 Wiley, Chichester.
74. Starkel L., Gregory K.J., Thornes J.B. Temperate Palaeohydrology. 1991;548 Wiley, Chichester.
75. 14C age calibration program Radiocarbono. 35:1993;215-230.
76. Thompson R.S., Whitlock C., Bartlein P.J., Harrison S.P., Spaulding W.G. Climatic changes in the western United States since 18,000 yr BP. Wright H.E. Jr., Kutzbach J.E., Webb III T., Ruddiman W.F., Street-Perrott F.A., Bartlein P.J. Global Climates Since the Last Glacial Maximum. 1993;468-513 University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.
77. Timmermann A., Oberhuber J., Bacher A., Esch M., Latif M., Roeckner E. Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature. 398:1999;694-697.
78. Uppenbrink J. The North Atlantic oscillation. Science. 283:1999;948-949.
79. United States Army Corps of Engineers, 1994. The great flood of 1993 post-flood report: Appendix A, 192 p. St. Paul, Minnesota.
80. United States Water Resources Council, 1981. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency. Bulletin 17B, Hydrology Committee, Washington, DC.
81. Van Devender T.R., Spaulding W.G. Development of vegetation in the southwestern United States. Science. 204:1979;701-710.
82. Vita-Finzi C. Diachronism in Old World alluvial sequences. Nature. 263:1976;218-219.
83. Vita-Finzi C. Solar history and paleohydrology during the last two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters. 22:1995;699-702.
84. Wahl K.L., Vining K.C., Wiche G.J. Precipitation in the upper Mississippi River basin, January 1 through July 31, 1993. United States Geological Survey Circular. 1120-B:1993;13.
85. Webb III T., Ruddiman W.F., Street-Perrott F.A., Markgraf V., Kutzbach J.E., Bartlein P.J., Wright H.E. Jr., Prell W.L. Climatic changes during the past 18,000 years: regional syntheses, mechanisms, and causes. Wright H.E. Jr., Kutzbach J.E., Webb III T.W., Ruddiman F., Street-Perrott F.A., Bartlein P.J. Global Climates Since the Last Glacial Maximum. 1993;514-535 University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.
86. Webb R.H., O'Connor J.E., Baker V.R. Paleohydrologic reconstruction of flood frequency on the Escalante River. Baker V.R., Kochel R.C., Patton P.C. Flood Geomorphology. 1988;403-418 Wiley, New York.
87. Wells L.E. Holocene history of the El Niño phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of northern coastal Peru. Geology. 18:1990;1134-1137.
88. Wells L.E., Noller J.S. Determining the early history of El Niño. Science. 276:1997;965-967.
89. Wendland, W. M. (1993). A discussion of El Niño. Storm 1(2).
90. Whetton P.H., Fowler A.M., Haylock M.R., Pittock A.B. Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia. Climatic Change. 25:1993;289-317.
91. Winkler M.G., Swain A.M., Kutzbach J.E. Middle Holocene dry period in the midwestern United States. lake levels and pollen stratigraphy Quaternary Research. 25:1986;235-250.
92. Wohl E.E. Bedrock benches and boulder bars: floods in the Burdekin Gorge of Australia. Geological Society of America Bulletin. 104:1992;770-778.
93. Wohl E.E., Fuertsch S.J., Baker V.R. Sedimentary records of late Holocene floods along the Fitzroy and Margaret Rivers, western Australia. Australian Journal of Earth Science. 41:1994;273-280.
94. Wohl, E.E., Webb, R.H., Baker, V.R., Pickup, G., 1994b. Sedimentary flood records in the bedrock canyons of rivers in the monsoonal region of Australia. Water Resource Paper 107, Engineering Research Center, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 102 pp.
95. Wolman M.G., Eiler J.P. Reconnaissance study of erosion and deposition produced by the flood of August 1955 in Connecticut. Transactions of the American Geophysical Union. 39:1958;1-14.
96. Wolman M.G., Leopold L.B. River flood plains. some observations on their formation United States Geological Survey Professional Paper. 282-C:1957;C87-C109.
97. Wright H.E. Jr. Patterns of Holocene climatic change in the midwestern United States. Quaternary Research. 38:1992;129-134.
98. Zhang D. Climate changes in recent 1000 years in China. Tungsheng L. Quaternary Geology and Environment in China. 1991;208-213 Science Press, Beijing, China.
99. Zielinski G.A., Mayewski P.A., Meeker L.D., Whitlow S., Twickler M.S. A 110,000-Yr record of explosive volcanism from the GISP2 (Greenland) ice core. Quaternary Research. 45:1996;109-118.