Every shark east of Suez: Great power interests, policies and tactics in the Transcaspian energy wars

Central Asian Survey

Volumn 18, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 149-184

  Blank, Stephen ^a  

^a U S ARMY WAR COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ENERGY RESOURCE; GEOPOLITICS; INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS;

KAZAKHSTAN; TURKMENISTAN;

EID: 0032818394     PISSN: 02634937     EISSN: None     Source Type: Trade Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/02634939995669     Document Type: Article

References (213)

1. For examples of this view see Charles Blandy, The Caspian: A Sea of Troubles, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Camberley, 1997, pp 1, 27; Michel Croissant, 'U.S. Interests in the Caspian Basin', Comparative Strategy, XVI, No 3, 1997, pp 353-367; Robert Ebel, Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: The Haves and Have-Nots Face the Future, Washington: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 1997, p 7; Stephen Blank, Energy and Security in Transcaucasia: Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1994, and idem, Energy, Economic, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1995.
2. For examples of this view see Charles Blandy, The Caspian: A Sea of Troubles, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Camberley, 1997, pp 1, 27; Michel Croissant, 'U.S. Interests in the Caspian Basin', Comparative Strategy, XVI, No 3, 1997, pp 353-367; Robert Ebel, Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: The Haves and Have-Nots Face the Future, Washington: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 1997, p 7; Stephen Blank, Energy and Security in Transcaucasia: Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1994, and idem, Energy, Economic, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1995.
3. For examples of this view see Charles Blandy, The Caspian: A Sea of Troubles, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Camberley, 1997, pp 1, 27; Michel Croissant, 'U.S. Interests in the Caspian Basin', Comparative Strategy, XVI, No 3, 1997, pp 353-367; Robert Ebel, Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: The Haves and Have-Nots Face the Future, Washington: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 1997, p 7; Stephen Blank, Energy and Security in Transcaucasia: Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1994, and idem, Energy, Economic, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1995.
4. For examples of this view see Charles Blandy, The Caspian: A Sea of Troubles, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Camberley, 1997, pp 1, 27; Michel Croissant, 'U.S. Interests in the Caspian Basin', Comparative Strategy, XVI, No 3, 1997, pp 353-367; Robert Ebel, Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: The Haves and Have-Nots Face the Future, Washington: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 1997, p 7; Stephen Blank, Energy and Security in Transcaucasia: Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1994, and idem, Energy, Economic, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1995.
5. For examples of this view see Charles Blandy, The Caspian: A Sea of Troubles, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Camberley, 1997, pp 1, 27; Michel Croissant, 'U.S. Interests in the Caspian Basin', Comparative Strategy, XVI, No 3, 1997, pp 353-367; Robert Ebel, Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: The Haves and Have-Nots Face the Future, Washington: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 1997, p 7; Stephen Blank, Energy and Security in Transcaucasia: Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1994, and idem, Energy, Economic, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1995.
6. Statement of Stephen Sestanovich, Anibassador-at-Large, Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for the New Independent States, Before the House International Relations Committee, 30 April 1998, Turkistan Newsletter Volume 98-2: 089-06-May-1998 (henceforth Sestanovich, Testimony).
7. Jean-Christoph Peuch, 'Caspian oil: the role of private corporations', Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, XXII, No 2, Summer/Fall 1998, pp 27-41.
8. Ibid, Douglas W. Blum, 'Domestic politics and Russia's Caspian policy', Post-Soviet Affairs, XIV, No 2, 1998, pp 137-164.
9. See for example, Stephen M. Walt, The Gorbachev interlude and international relations theory' Diplomatic History, Vol XXI, No 3, Summer, 1997, p 478; James Goodby, 'Can collective security work: reflections on the European case', Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osier Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict, Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1996, pp 239-242.
10. See for example, Stephen M. Walt, The Gorbachev interlude and international relations theory' Diplomatic History, Vol XXI, No 3, Summer, 1997, p 478; James Goodby, 'Can collective security work: reflections on the European case', Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osier Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict, Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1996, pp 239-242.
11. For Turkey's aspirations in 1993 in this part of the world see, Stephen Blank, 'Introduction' Turkey's strategic emplacement in the former USSR and US interests', and 'Conclusions and recommendations', in Stephen J. Blank, LTC, William T, Johnsen, USA, Stephen C, Pelletiere, Turkey's Strategic Position at the Crossroads of World Affairs, Carlisle Barracks, PA, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, January 1994, pp 1-3, 55-87, and 89-98 respectively,
12. Xu Xiaojie, 'China reaches crossroads for strategic choices', World Oil, April 1997, p 99.
13. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, 'US policy and the Caucasus', Contemporary Caucasus Newsletter, Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies, Berkeley, CA: University of California, Berkeley, Issue 5, Spring 1998, pp 3-4.
14. Martha Brill Olcott, The Caspian's false promise', Foreign Policy, No 112, Summer 1998, pp 101-102.
15. Ibid, Stephen Blank, 'Instability in the Caucasus: new trends, old traits', Part I, Jane's Intelligence Review, April 1998, pp 14-17, Part II, May 1998, pp 18-21.
16. Geoffrey Kemp and Robert Harkavy, Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997, pp 3-108.
17. Solana is quoted in Glen E. Howard, 'Nato & the Caucasus: the Caspian axis', paper presented to the IV Annual SSI-CSIS Conference on NATO Enlargement, Washington, DC 26 January 1998, forthcoming in Stephen Blank, ed., NATO After Enlargement: New Challenges, New Missions, New Forces, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College.
18. Stephen Blank, 'Russia and Europe in the Caucasus' European Security, IV, No 4, Winter 1995, pp 622-645.
19. Howard, Rachel Bronson, Nato's expanding presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia', paper presented to the IV Annual SSI-CSIS Conference on NATO Enlargement, Washington, DC, 26 January 1998 and forthcoming in Blank, ed., NATO After Enlargement, Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, No 8, 27 February-5 March 1998, as cited in Johnson's Russia List, No 2095, 5 March 1998, davidjohnson@erols.com.
20. Howard, Rachel Bronson, Nato's expanding presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia', paper presented to the IV Annual SSI-CSIS Conference on NATO Enlargement, Washington, DC, 26 January 1998 and forthcoming in Blank, ed., NATO After Enlargement, Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, No 8, 27 February-5 March 1998, as cited in Johnson's Russia List, No 2095, 5 March 1998, davidjohnson@erols.com.
21. 'If we clash it'll be on the Caspian', Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (henceforth CDPP), XVII, No 21, 21 June 1995, p 21; Dmitri Vertkin, Kazakhstan Security & the New Asian Landscape, Bailrigg Paper No 26, Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, Lancaster University, 1997, pp 17-18; Robin Morgan and David Ottaway, 'Drilling for influence in Russia's back yard', Washington Post, 22 September 1997, pp Al, 15,
22. 'If we clash it'll be on the Caspian', Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (henceforth CDPP), XVII, No 21, 21 June 1995, p 21; Dmitri Vertkin, Kazakhstan Security & the New Asian Landscape, Bailrigg Paper No 26, Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, Lancaster University, 1997, pp 17-18; Robin Morgan and David Ottaway, 'Drilling for influence in Russia's back yard', Washington Post, 22 September 1997, pp Al, 15,
23. 'If we clash it'll be on the Caspian', Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (henceforth CDPP), XVII, No 21, 21 June 1995, p 21; Dmitri Vertkin, Kazakhstan Security & the New Asian Landscape, Bailrigg Paper No 26, Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, Lancaster University, 1997, pp 17-18; Robin Morgan and David Ottaway, 'Drilling for influence in Russia's back yard', Washington Post, 22 September 1997, pp Al, 15,
24. Ibid.
25. Douglas Blum, Sustainable Development and the New Oil Boom: Comparative and Competitive outcomes in the Caspian Sea, Programme on new approaches to Russian security, Davis Centre for Russian Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, Working Papers Series, No 4, 1997, p 21.
26. Quoted in Hall Gardner, Dangerous Crossroads: Europe, Russia, and the Future of NATO, Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 1997, p 117
27. Stephen Kinzer, 'Azerbaijan has reason to swagger', New York Times, 14 September 1997, p A12; Gennady L Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders, 'The politics of conflict prevention in Russia and the near abroad', Washington Quarterly, XX, No 4, Autumn 1997, pp 40-43; Viktor Israelyan, 'Russia at the crossroads: don't tease a wounded bear', Washington Quarterly, XXI, No 1, Winter 1998, pp 55-58; P. Terence Hopmann, Stephen D. Shenfield and Dominique Arel, Integration and Disintegration in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Regional and Global Security, Occasional Paper No 30, Thomas J. Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence RI, 1997, pp 35-36. 20. Ibid. Moreover Russia naturally fears the consequences of any foreign state holding a predominant or merely a large share of its energy future in its hands.
28. Stephen Kinzer, 'Azerbaijan has reason to swagger', New York Times, 14 September 1997, p A12; Gennady L Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders, 'The politics of conflict prevention in Russia and the near abroad', Washington Quarterly, XX, No 4, Autumn 1997, pp 40-43; Viktor Israelyan, 'Russia at the crossroads: don't tease a wounded bear', Washington Quarterly, XXI, No 1, Winter 1998, pp 55-58; P. Terence Hopmann, Stephen D. Shenfield and Dominique Arel, Integration and Disintegration in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Regional and Global Security, Occasional Paper No 30, Thomas J. Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence RI, 1997, pp 35-36. 20. Ibid. Moreover Russia naturally fears the consequences of any foreign state holding a predominant or merely a large share of its energy future in its hands.
29. Stephen Kinzer, 'Azerbaijan has reason to swagger', New York Times, 14 September 1997, p A12; Gennady L Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders, 'The politics of conflict prevention in Russia and the near abroad', Washington Quarterly, XX, No 4, Autumn 1997, pp 40-43; Viktor Israelyan, 'Russia at the crossroads: don't tease a wounded bear', Washington Quarterly, XXI, No 1, Winter 1998, pp 55-58; P. Terence Hopmann, Stephen D. Shenfield and Dominique Arel, Integration and Disintegration in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Regional and Global Security, Occasional Paper No 30, Thomas J. Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence RI, 1997, pp 35-36. 20. Ibid. Moreover Russia naturally fears the consequences of any foreign state holding a predominant or merely a large share of its energy future in its hands.
30. Stephen Kinzer, 'Azerbaijan has reason to swagger', New York Times, 14 September 1997, p A12; Gennady L Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders, 'The politics of conflict prevention in Russia and the near abroad', Washington Quarterly, XX, No 4, Autumn 1997, pp 40-43; Viktor Israelyan, 'Russia at the crossroads: don't tease a wounded bear', Washington Quarterly, XXI, No 1, Winter 1998, pp 55-58; P. Terence Hopmann, Stephen D. Shenfield and Dominique Arel, Integration and Disintegration in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Regional and Global Security, Occasional Paper No 30, Thomas J. Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence RI, 1997, pp 35-36. 20. Ibid. Moreover Russia naturally fears the consequences of any foreign state holding a predominant or merely a large share of its energy future in its hands.
31. Stephen Kinzer, 'Azerbaijan has reason to swagger', New York Times, 14 September 1997, p A12; Gennady L Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders, 'The politics of conflict prevention in Russia and the near abroad', Washington Quarterly, XX, No 4, Autumn 1997, pp 40-43; Viktor Israelyan, 'Russia at the crossroads: don't tease a wounded bear', Washington Quarterly, XXI, No 1, Winter 1998, pp 55-58; P. Terence Hopmann, Stephen D. Shenfield and Dominique Arel, Integration and Disintegration in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Regional and Global Security, Occasional Paper No 30, Thomas J. Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence RI, 1997, pp 35-36. 20. Ibid. Moreover Russia naturally fears the consequences of any foreign state holding a predominant or merely a large share of its energy future in its hands.
32. Stephen Blank, 'Energy, economics and security in Central Asia: Russia and its rivals', Central Asian Survey, Vol 14, No 3, Fall 1995, pp 373-406.
33. Kemp and Harkavy, 'Introduction', p xiii.
34. Robert D. Blackwill, Michael Stuermer, 'Introduction', Robert D. Blackwill and Michael Stuermcr, eds, Allies Divided; Transatlantic Policies for the Greater Middle East, Cambridge, MA: MIT University Press, 1997, p 2.
35. Ambassador Matthew Nimetz, 'Mediterranean security after the Cold War', Mediterranean Quarterly, Vol VIII, No 2, Spring 1997, p 29.
36. Ibid,
37. Warren Christopher and William J. Perry, 'Nato's True Mission', New York Times, 21 October 1997, p 25.
38. Hans Binnendijk, 'Next, Nato needs to give itself a southern strategy', International Herald Tribune, 17 March 1998.
39. Dmitry Trenin, 'Russian security interests and policies in the Caucasian region; and Dmitri Danilov, 'Russia's search for an international mandate in Transcaucasia', both in Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, Brussels, VUB University Press, 1996, pp 91-102, 137-152 respectively. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 19 February 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (henceforth FBIS SOV), 97-033, 19 February 1997, Moscow, NTV, in Russian, 22 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA), 97-265, 22 September 1997.
40. Dmitry Trenin, 'Russian security interests and policies in the Caucasian region; and Dmitri Danilov, 'Russia's search for an international mandate in Transcaucasia', both in Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, Brussels, VUB University Press, 1996, pp 91-102, 137-152 respectively. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 19 February 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (henceforth FBIS SOV), 97-033, 19 February 1997, Moscow, NTV, in Russian, 22 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA), 97-265, 22 September 1997.
41. Dmitry Trenin, 'Russian security interests and policies in the Caucasian region; and Dmitri Danilov, 'Russia's search for an international mandate in Transcaucasia', both in Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, Brussels, VUB University Press, 1996, pp 91-102, 137-152 respectively. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 19 February 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (henceforth FBIS SOV), 97-033, 19 February 1997, Moscow, NTV, in Russian, 22 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA), 97-265, 22 September 1997.
42. Dmitry Trenin, 'Russian security interests and policies in the Caucasian region; and Dmitri Danilov, 'Russia's search for an international mandate in Transcaucasia', both in Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, Brussels, VUB University Press, 1996, pp 91-102, 137-152 respectively. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 19 February 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (henceforth FBIS SOV), 97-033, 19 February 1997, Moscow, NTV, in Russian, 22 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA), 97-265, 22 September 1997.
43. Dmitry Trenin, 'Russian security interests and policies in the Caucasian region; and Dmitri Danilov, 'Russia's search for an international mandate in Transcaucasia', both in Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, Brussels, VUB University Press, 1996, pp 91-102, 137-152 respectively. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 19 February 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (henceforth FBIS SOV), 97-033, 19 February 1997, Moscow, NTV, in Russian, 22 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA), 97-265, 22 September 1997.
44. Dmitry Trenin, 'Russian security interests and policies in the Caucasian region; and Dmitri Danilov, 'Russia's search for an international mandate in Transcaucasia', both in Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, Brussels, VUB University Press, 1996, pp 91-102, 137-152 respectively. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 19 February 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Central Eurasia (henceforth FBIS SOV), 97-033, 19 February 1997, Moscow, NTV, in Russian, 22 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA), 97-265, 22 September 1997.
45. 'The fortnight in review' Prism, III, No 15, Pt 1 October 1997, Bronson, Howard.
46. Frederick P.A. Hammersen, 'The disquieting voice of Russian resentment', Parameters, XXVIII, No 2, Summer 1998, pp 39-55.
47. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, New York; Basic Books, 1997 and, 'A geostrategy for Eurasia', Foreign Affairs, LXXVI, No 5, SeptemberOctober 1997, pp 50-64.
48. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, New York; Basic Books, 1997 and, 'A geostrategy for Eurasia', Foreign Affairs, LXXVI, No 5, SeptemberOctober 1997, pp 50-64.
49. Bronson, Howard,
50. Ibid.
51. Peuch, p 32.
52. Steve LeVine, 'High Stakes' Newsweek, 17 April 1995, p 10.
53. Boris Rumer, 'Disintegration and reintegration in Central Asia: dynamics and prospects', Boris Rumer, ed., Central Asia in Transition: Dilemmas of Political and Economic Development, Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe & Co. Inc., 1996, p 10; Oksana Reznikova, Transnational corporations in Central Asia', in Rumer, pp 82-83
54. Boris Rumer, 'Disintegration and reintegration in Central Asia: dynamics and prospects', Boris Rumer, ed., Central Asia in Transition: Dilemmas of Political and Economic Development, Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe & Co. Inc., 1996, p 10; Oksana Reznikova, Transnational corporations in Central Asia', in Rumer, pp 82-83
55. CDPP, 21 June 1995, p 21.
56. Ibid.
57. Bronson, Howard, op cit.
58. As a result, Washington is now prepared to invest its own money despite earlier insistence that pipeline investments in the area be profitable ones; Michael Lelyveld, 'Caucasus: deadline nears on oil transit routes', Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Newsline, 16 May 1998 (henceforth RFEIRL Newsline).
59. Ibid.
60. Bronson, Howard.
61. Moscow, ITAR-TASS, in English, 16 April 1998, FBIS SOV, 98-106, 21 April 1998, Statement of Under-Secretary of State Thomas Pickering to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 3 March 1998, in Johnson's Russia List, No 2092, 4 March 1993, davidjohnson@erols.com.
62. Moscow, ITAR-TASS, in English, 16 April 1998, FBIS SOV, 98-106, 21 April 1998, Statement of Under-Secretary of State Thomas Pickering to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 3 March 1998, in Johnson's Russia List, No 2092, 4 March 1993, davidjohnson@erols.com.
63. Moscow, ITAR-TASS, in English, 16 April 1998, FBIS SOV, 98-106, 21 April 1998, Statement of Under-Secretary of State Thomas Pickering to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 3 March 1998, in Johnson's Russia List, No 2092, 4 March 1993, davidjohnson@erols.com.
64. Glen E. Howard, 'Nato expansion & Azerbaijan's search for security' unpublished paper, presented to the CSIS Project on Russia and the CIS, Washington, DC, 15 July 1997 (henceforth Howard-2).
65. US National Security Council, Caspian Region Energy Development Report, 1997.
66. Reuters, 17 November 1997, Pipeline News, No 79, 10-17 November 1997, 'Oil rosh', Washington Post, 20 November 1997, p 24.
67. Reuters, 17 November 1997, Pipeline News, No 79, 10-17 November 1997, 'Oil rosh', Washington Post, 20 November 1997, p 24.
68. Reuters, 17 November 1997, Pipeline News, No 79, 10-17 November 1997, 'Oil rosh', Washington Post, 20 November 1997, p 24.
69. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 13 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA) 97-259, 16 September 1997; R. Jeffrey Smith, 'US leads peacekeeping drill in Kazakstan' Washington Post, 15 September 1997, p 17, Charles Clover and Bruce Clark, 'Oil politics trouble Central Asian waters', Financial Times, 23 September 1997, p 9,
70. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 13 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA) 97-259, 16 September 1997; R. Jeffrey Smith, 'US leads peacekeeping drill in Kazakstan' Washington Post, 15 September 1997, p 17, Charles Clover and Bruce Clark, 'Oil politics trouble Central Asian waters', Financial Times, 23 September 1997, p 9,
71. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 13 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA) 97-259, 16 September 1997; R. Jeffrey Smith, 'US leads peacekeeping drill in Kazakstan' Washington Post, 15 September 1997, p 17, Charles Clover and Bruce Clark, 'Oil politics trouble Central Asian waters', Financial Times, 23 September 1997, p 9,
72. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 13 September 1997, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Military Affairs (henceforth FBIS UMA) 97-259, 16 September 1997; R. Jeffrey Smith, 'US leads peacekeeping drill in Kazakstan' Washington Post, 15 September 1997, p 17, Charles Clover and Bruce Clark, 'Oil politics trouble Central Asian waters', Financial Times, 23 September 1997, p 9,
73. Caspian Region Energy Development Report.
74. Voice of America, 'Testimony of Secretary of Energy Frederico Pena to the House International Relations Committee' 30 April 1998, Sestanovich, Testimony, Pickering.
75. Voice of America, 'Testimony of Secretary of Energy Frederico Pena to the House International Relations Committee' 30 April 1998, Sestanovich, Testimony, Pickering.
76. Caspian Region Energy Development Report, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbutt, 'A farewell to flashman: American policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia', address at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, DC, 21 July 1997 (henceforth Talbott); Bradford R. McGuinn, 'From the Caspian to the Gulf: the assertion of US power', Middle East Insight, NovemberDecember 1997, pp 10-14.
77. Caspian Region Energy Development Report, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbutt, 'A farewell to flashman: American policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia', address at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, DC, 21 July 1997 (henceforth Talbott); Bradford R. McGuinn, 'From the Caspian to the Gulf: the assertion of US power', Middle East Insight, NovemberDecember 1997, pp 10-14.
78. Ibid. 'Interview with Bill Clinton, President of the United States', International Affairs, Moscow, No 2, 1997, p 5.
79. Roger W. Barnett, Extraordinary Power Projection: An Operational Concept for the US Navy, Strategic Research Development Report 5-96, US Naval War College, Centre for Naval Warfare Studies, Occasional Papers, Newport RI, 1996, pp 7-8.
80. Talbott, Interview with Bill Clinton, pp 2-5.
81. Tbilisi, Radio Tbilisi Network, in Georgian, 9 August 1998, FBIS SOV, 97-230, 19 August 1997.
82. Tbilisi, Radio Tbilisi Network, in Georgian, 9 August 1998, FBIS SOV, 97-230, 19 August 1997.
83. Charles Fenyvesi, 'Caspian Sea: US experts say oil reserves are huge', RFEIRL Newsline, 5 May 1998,
84. Ebel pp 11-12, International Institute of Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey 1997/98, London: Oxford University Press, 1998, pp 22-29.
85. Ibid.
86. Ibid.
87. Ibid.
88. Ibid.
89. Brzezinski, op cit; Smith, p 17, Moscow, Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, in Russian, 10-16 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-345, 11 December 1997.
90. Brzezinski, op cit; Smith, p 17, Moscow, Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, in Russian, 10-16 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-345, 11 December 1997.
91. Brzezinski, op cit; Smith, p 17, Moscow, Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye, in Russian, 10-16 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-345, 11 December 1997.
92. Smith, p. 17.
93. Pena, Testimony,
94. In June 1998 Secretary of State Albright proclaimed an initiative to improve and normalize relations with Iran. It is too early to determine how successful that move will be, but clearly energy considerations were a factor behind it. Secretary of Slate Madeleine K. Albright Remarks at 1998 Asia Society Dinner Waldorf-Astoria Hotel, New York, New York, 17 June 1998, as released by the Office of the Spokesman, 18 June 1998, US Department of State, Washington, DC (henceforth, Albright, Remarks) The text can be found at http:;dRsecretary.state.gov/www. statements/1998/980617a.html.
95. Ibid,
96. Ibid,
97. Sestanovich, Testimony.
98. Ibid.
99. Ibid,
100. Smith, p A17.
101. Talbott, US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, 'Remarks by Secretary Madeleine K. Albright to Students at Vilnius University and Question and Answer Session', 13 July 1997, Vilnius, Lithuania, USIA 'The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia', an address by Strobe Talbott, Deputy Secretary of State, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 19 September 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, davidjohnson@cdi.org, No 1220, 23 September 1997 (henceforth Talbott-2); Caspian Region Energy Development Report, p 17; Floriana Fossato, 'Russia; the amount of change has been extraordinary', RFEIRL, 12 December 1997, as transcribed in Johnson's Russia List, No 1428, 12 December 1997, davidjohnson@erols.com.
102. Talbott, US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, 'Remarks by Secretary Madeleine K. Albright to Students at Vilnius University and Question and Answer Session', 13 July 1997, Vilnius, Lithuania, USIA 'The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia', an address by Strobe Talbott, Deputy Secretary of State, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 19 September 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, davidjohnson@cdi.org, No 1220, 23 September 1997 (henceforth Talbott-2); Caspian Region Energy Development Report, p 17; Floriana Fossato, 'Russia; the amount of change has been extraordinary', RFEIRL, 12 December 1997, as transcribed in Johnson's Russia List, No 1428, 12 December 1997, davidjohnson@erols.com.
103. Talbott, US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, 'Remarks by Secretary Madeleine K. Albright to Students at Vilnius University and Question and Answer Session', 13 July 1997, Vilnius, Lithuania, USIA 'The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia', an address by Strobe Talbott, Deputy Secretary of State, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 19 September 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, davidjohnson@cdi.org, No 1220, 23 September 1997 (henceforth Talbott-2); Caspian Region Energy Development Report, p 17; Floriana Fossato, 'Russia; the amount of change has been extraordinary', RFEIRL, 12 December 1997, as transcribed in Johnson's Russia List, No 1428, 12 December 1997, davidjohnson@erols.com.
104. Talbott, US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, 'Remarks by Secretary Madeleine K. Albright to Students at Vilnius University and Question and Answer Session', 13 July 1997, Vilnius, Lithuania, USIA 'The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia', an address by Strobe Talbott, Deputy Secretary of State, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 19 September 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, davidjohnson@cdi.org, No 1220, 23 September 1997 (henceforth Talbott-2); Caspian Region Energy Development Report, p 17; Floriana Fossato, 'Russia; the amount of change has been extraordinary', RFEIRL, 12 December 1997, as transcribed in Johnson's Russia List, No 1428, 12 December 1997, davidjohnson@erols.com.
105. Talbott, US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, 'Remarks by Secretary Madeleine K. Albright to Students at Vilnius University and Question and Answer Session', 13 July 1997, Vilnius, Lithuania, USIA 'The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia', an address by Strobe Talbott, Deputy Secretary of State, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 19 September 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, davidjohnson@cdi.org, No 1220, 23 September 1997 (henceforth Talbott-2); Caspian Region Energy Development Report, p 17; Floriana Fossato, 'Russia; the amount of change has been extraordinary', RFEIRL, 12 December 1997, as transcribed in Johnson's Russia List, No 1428, 12 December 1997, davidjohnson@erols.com.
106. Kinzer, p A12, Chufrin and Saunders, pp 40-43; Israelyan, pp 55-58.
107. Kinzer, p A12, Chufrin and Saunders, pp 40-43; Israelyan, pp 55-58.
108. Ibid, Hopmann, Shenfield and Arel, pp 35-36.
109. Nikolai Sokov, 'A new Cold War? Reflections of a Russian diplomat', International Journal, XLIX, No 4, Autumn 1994, pp 914-915.
110. FBIS UMA, 16 September 1997.
111. Ibid. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 22 January 1997, FBIS SOV 97-015, 24 January 1997,
112. Ibid. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 22 January 1997, FBIS SOV 97-015, 24 January 1997,
113. Stephen Blank, 'The OSCE, Russia, and Security in the Caucasus', Helsinki Monitor, VI, No 3 1995, pp 69-71;
114. McGuinn, pp 10-14.
115. Ibid.
116. The new US initiative towards Iran is evidence of that reappraisal, Albright, Remarks.
117. Ibid.
118. Olcott, pp 96-113, Alec Rasizade, 'Azerbaijan and the oil trade: prospects and pitfalls' Brown Journal of World Affairs, IV, No 2, Summer/Fall 1997, pp 277-294.
119. David B. Ottaway and Dan Morgan, 'The crumbling wall around Iran', Washington Post Weekly, 20 October 1997, p 9.
120. Al bright, Remarks.
121. Stephen Sestanovich, 'Why the United States has no Russia policy', Robert J. Lieber, ed., Eagle Adrift: American Foreign Policy at the End of the Century, New York: Longman, 1997, p 166,
122. On the Iranian-Russo connection see, Stephen Blank, "Russia and the Gulf', Perceptions, I, No 2, December 1996-February 1997, pp 30-55; see also Reuters, 21 November 1997,
123. On the Iranian-Russo connection see, Stephen Blank, "Russia and the Gulf', Perceptions, I, No 2, December 1996-February 1997, pp 30-55; see also Reuters, 21 November 1997,
124. as transcribed in Johnson's Russia list, No 1386, 22 November 1997, davidjohnson@erols.com.
125. Ephraim Karsh, 'Cold War, post-Cold War: does it make a difference for the Middle East?' Review of International Studies, Vol XXIII, No 3, September 1997, p 281. On p 283 he noted that Saddam Hussein's build-up prior to the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was 'treated in Washington with the disbelief that commonly accompanies a warning that another government is about to break 7 basic international rule', exactly as occurred in Chechnya in 1994. See also, Stephen J. Blank, 'Yugoslavia's wars and European security, Stephen J, Blank, ed., Yugoslavia's Wars: The Problem From Hell, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1995, pp 123-159.
126. Ephraim Karsh, 'Cold War, post-Cold War: does it make a difference for the Middle East?' Review of International Studies, Vol XXIII, No 3, September 1997, p 281. On p 283 he noted that Saddam Hussein's build-up prior to the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was 'treated in Washington with the disbelief that commonly accompanies a warning that another government is about to break 7 basic international rule', exactly as occurred in Chechnya in 1994. See also, Stephen J. Blank, 'Yugoslavia's wars and European security, Stephen J, Blank, ed., Yugoslavia's Wars: The Problem From Hell, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1995, pp 123-159.
127. Rasizade, pp 277-294; Olcott, pp 96-113
128. Rasizade, pp 277-294; Olcott, pp 96-113
129. Moscow, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, in Russian, 13 September 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-258, 15 September 1997, Howard, 'NATO & the Caucasus', passim.
130. Moscow, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, in Russian, 13 September 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-258, 15 September 1997, Howard, 'NATO & the Caucasus', passim.
131. Ibid.
132. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 10 December 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-344, 10 December 1997.
133. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 10 December 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-344, 10 December 1997.
134. RFEIRL Newsline, 4 February, 10 February, 11 February 1998.
135. Ibid.
136. Blank, Turkey's strategic emplacement', pp 55-87.
137. FBIS SOV, 15 September 1997.
138. Jim Hoagland, The end of armies', Washington Post, 18 September 1997, p A21.
139. Richard Betts, 'Nuclear peace and conventional war' Journal of Strategic Studies, XI, No 1, March 1988, pp 90-91.
140. Paul D'Anieri, 'International cooperation among unequal partners: the emergence of bilateralism in the former Soviet Union', International Politics, XXXIV, No 4, December 1998, pp 417-448.
141. Gerhard Simon, 'Russia's identity and international politics' Aussenpolitik, English Edition, No 3, 1997, pp 245-256, Tatiana Parkhalina, 'Of myths and illusions: Russian perceptions of NATO enlargement' NATO Review, May-June 1997, p 14.
142. Gerhard Simon, 'Russia's identity and international politics' Aussenpolitik, English Edition, No 3, 1997, pp 245-256, Tatiana Parkhalina, 'Of myths and illusions: Russian perceptions of NATO enlargement' NATO Review, May-June 1997, p 14.
143. S- Neil MacFarlane, 'The UN, the OSCE, and the Southern Caucasus', Caspian Crossroads, III, No 1, 1997, pp 18-22.
144. FBIS SOV, 15 September 1997.
145. Baku, Zerkalo, in Russian, 18 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-311, 7 November 1997.
146. Baku, Zerkalo, in Russian, 18 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-311, 7 November 1997.
147. Baku, Zerkalo, in Russian, 11 April 1998, FBIS SOV, 98-126, 7 May 1998.
148. Baku, Zerkalo, in Russian, 11 April 1998, FBIS SOV, 98-126, 7 May 1998.
149. Istanbul, Waddmnhhmmyy Instanbul Milliyet, Internet Version, in Turkish, 21 April 1988, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Western Europe (henceforth FBIS WEU), 98-111, 21 April 1998.
150. Istanbul, Waddmnhhmmyy Instanbul Milliyet, Internet Version, in Turkish, 21 April 1988, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Western Europe (henceforth FBIS WEU), 98-111, 21 April 1998.
151. Baku, Turan, in Russian, 29 January 1998, FBIS SOV, 98-029, 2 February 1998.
152. Baku, Turan, in Russian, 29 January 1998, FBIS SOV, 98-029, 2 February 1998.
153. Bronson, Howard, 'NATO & the Caucasus'.
154. Ibid.
155. F. Stephen Larrabee, US and European Policy Toward Turkey and the Caspian Basin, Blackwill and Stuermer, eds, pp 143-173.
156. Howard, 'NATO & the Caucasus'.
157. Moscow, Moskovskiye Novosti, 20-27 July 1997; FBIS SOV, 97-208, 22 July 1997.
158. Moscow, Moskovskiye Novosti, 20-27 July 1997; FBIS SOV, 97-208, 22 July 1997.
159. Bronson.
160. I owe this insight to Susan L. Clark of the Institute for Defence Analysis in Alexandria, VA.
161. Blum, Sustainable Development p 21.
162. Stephen Blank, 'Central Asia's international relations in the Asian context', Issues & Studies, XXXII, No 5, May 1996, pp 96-99,
163. 'Guam' group formed to promote common interests' Prism, III, No 21, 19 December 1997 via e-mail transmission, 'Interstate Relations', CDPP, XLIX, No 41, 12 November 1997, pp 16-17, and The Monitor, 11 December 1997 for signs of an Azeri-Turkmen rapprochement on disputed issues.
164. 'Guam' group formed to promote common interests' Prism, III, No 21, 19 December 1997 via e-mail transmission, 'Interstate Relations', CDPP, XLIX, No 41, 12 November 1997, pp 16-17, and The Monitor, 11 December 1997 for signs of an Azeri-Turkmen rapprochement on disputed issues.
165. 'Guam' group formed to promote common interests' Prism, III, No 21, 19 December 1997 via e-mail transmission, 'Interstate Relations', CDPP, XLIX, No 41, 12 November 1997, pp 16-17, and The Monitor, 11 December 1997 for signs of an Azeri-Turkmen rapprochement on disputed issues.
166. See the works by Stephen Blank above for examples of how Russia has sought to pressure and coerce these states.
167. Sarah J. Lloyd, 'Pipelines to prosperity?' The International Spectator, XXXII, No 1, January-March 1997, pp 53-63.
168. Jill Crystal, Oil and Politics in the Gulf: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; Giacomo Luciani, The oil rent, the fiscal crisis of the state and democratization', Ghassan Salarne, ed., Democracy Without Democrates: The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World, London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1994, pp 130-155; Jacques Delacroix, The distributive state in the world system', Studies in Comparative International Development, XV, No 3, Fall 1980, pp 3-21; Hazem Bebalwi and Giacomo Luciani, eds, The Rentier State, Volume II, London: Croom Helm, 1990; H, Mahdawy, 'The problems and patterns of economic development in rentier states: the case of Iran', MA. Cook, ed., Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East, London: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp 428-467.
169. Jill Crystal, Oil and Politics in the Gulf: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; Giacomo Luciani, The oil rent, the fiscal crisis of the state and democratization', Ghassan Salarne, ed., Democracy Without Democrates: The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World, London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1994, pp 130-155; Jacques Delacroix, The distributive state in the world system', Studies in Comparative International Development, XV, No 3, Fall 1980, pp 3-21; Hazem Bebalwi and Giacomo Luciani, eds, The Rentier State, Volume II, London: Croom Helm, 1990; H, Mahdawy, 'The problems and patterns of economic development in rentier states: the case of Iran', MA. Cook, ed., Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East, London: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp 428-467.
170. Jill Crystal, Oil and Politics in the Gulf: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; Giacomo Luciani, The oil rent, the fiscal crisis of the state and democratization', Ghassan Salarne, ed., Democracy Without Democrates: The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World, London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1994, pp 130-155; Jacques Delacroix, The distributive state in the world system', Studies in Comparative International Development, XV, No 3, Fall 1980, pp 3-21; Hazem Bebalwi and Giacomo Luciani, eds, The Rentier State, Volume II, London: Croom Helm, 1990; H, Mahdawy, 'The problems and patterns of economic development in rentier states: the case of Iran', MA. Cook, ed., Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East, London: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp 428-467.
171. Jill Crystal, Oil and Politics in the Gulf: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; Giacomo Luciani, The oil rent, the fiscal crisis of the state and democratization', Ghassan Salarne, ed., Democracy Without Democrates: The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World, London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1994, pp 130-155; Jacques Delacroix, The distributive state in the world system', Studies in Comparative International Development, XV, No 3, Fall 1980, pp 3-21; Hazem Bebalwi and Giacomo Luciani, eds, The Rentier State, Volume II, London: Croom Helm, 1990; H, Mahdawy, 'The problems and patterns of economic development in rentier states: the case of Iran', MA. Cook, ed., Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East, London: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp 428-467.
172. Jill Crystal, Oil and Politics in the Gulf: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; Giacomo Luciani, The oil rent, the fiscal crisis of the state and democratization', Ghassan Salarne, ed., Democracy Without Democrates: The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World, London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1994, pp 130-155; Jacques Delacroix, The distributive state in the world system', Studies in Comparative International Development, XV, No 3, Fall 1980, pp 3-21; Hazem Bebalwi and Giacomo Luciani, eds, The Rentier State, Volume II, London: Croom Helm, 1990; H, Mahdawy, 'The problems and patterns of economic development in rentier states: the case of Iran', MA. Cook, ed., Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East, London: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp 428-467.
173. Rumer, pp 32-34.
174. Reznikova, pp 83-84.
175. Elaine Holoboff, 'Russia's strategic pipelines', Brassey's Defence Yearbook, 1997, London: Brassey's, pp 119-120.
176. Ibid.
177. Blank, Energy, Economics, and Security in Central Asia, passim.
178. Reuters, 17 December 1997, The Monitor and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Daily Digest, 19 December 1997.
179. Reuters, 17 December 1997, The Monitor and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Daily Digest, 19 December 1997.
180. Hopmann, Shenfield, and Arel, passim and Primakov's interview in Moscow, Obshchaya Gazeta, in Russian, 14-20 August 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-227, 18 August 1997.
181. Hopmann, Shenfield, and Arel, passim and Primakov's interview in Moscow, Obshchaya Gazeta, in Russian, 14-20 August 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-227, 18 August 1997.
182. Moscow, Radiostantsiya Ekho Moskvy, in Russian, 23 November 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-327, 23 November 1997.
183. Moscow, Radiostantsiya Ekho Moskvy, in Russian, 23 November 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-327, 23 November 1997.
184. Sebastian Allison, 'Gazprom threats seen as empty' Moscow Times, 16 June 1998.
185. The Monitor, 23 December 1997.
186. Blum, 'Domestic Polities', pp 237-264; Peuch, pp 27-41.
187. Blum, 'Domestic Polities', pp 237-264; Peuch, pp 27-41.
188. ' "Guam" group formed to promote common interests', Interstate Relations, pp 16-17.
189. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 28 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-301, 29 October 1997; Dianne L. Smith, 'Central Asian militaries breaking away from the bear', Post-Soviet Prospects, V, No 7, December 1997.
190. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 28 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-301, 29 October 1997; Dianne L. Smith, 'Central Asian militaries breaking away from the bear', Post-Soviet Prospects, V, No 7, December 1997.
191. Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in Russian, 28 October 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-301, 29 October 1997; Dianne L. Smith, 'Central Asian militaries breaking away from the bear', Post-Soviet Prospects, V, No 7, December 1997.
192. Israelyan, pp 56-58, FBIS SOV, 97-227, 18 August 1997.
193. Ibid Rossiya-SNG: Nuzhdaetsia li v Korrektirovke Pozitsiia Zapada, Moscow: Sluzhba Vneshnei Razvedki Rossiyskoi Federatsii, 1994. This brochure or monograph was edited by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, led by Primakov at the time, and undoubtedly reflects his views.
194. Hopmann, Shenfield and Arel, p 13; Lee Hockstader, 'Prospect of new USSR is new Russian electrion issue', Washington Post, 15 March 1996, p A25.
195. Hopmann, Shenfield and Arel, p 13; Lee Hockstader, 'Prospect of new USSR is new Russian electrion issue', Washington Post, 15 March 1996, p A25.
196. For an analysis of the independent energy policies of Russia's oil companies see Igor Khripunov and Mary M. Matthews, 'Russia's oil and gas interest group and its foreign policy agenda', Problems of Post-Communism, XLIII, No 3, May-June 1996, pp 38-48.
197. Peuch, pp 27-41; Blum, 'Domestic polities', pp 237-264, Baku, Sharg, in Russian, 27 August 1997, FBIS SOV 97-239, 28 August 1997.
198. Peuch, pp 27-41; Blum, 'Domestic polities', pp 237-264, Baku, Sharg, in Russian, 27 August 1997, FBIS SOV 97-239, 28 August 1997.
199. Peuch, pp 27-41; Blum, 'Domestic polities', pp 237-264, Baku, Sharg, in Russian, 27 August 1997, FBIS SOV 97-239, 28 August 1997.
200. Peuch, pp 27-41; Blum, 'Domestic polities', pp 237-264, Baku, Sharg, in Russian, 27 August 1997, FBIS SOV 97-239, 28 August 1997.
201. Pipeline News, No 78, 3-9 November 1997.
202. Paul D'Anieri, 'Economic interdependence and Ukrainian security policy', paper presented to the International Studies Association Convention, Chicago, IL, February 1995, pp 18-25.
203. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 17 October 1997; FBIS SOV, 97-290, 17 October 1997, RFEIRL Daily Report, 20 October 1997.
204. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 17 October 1997; FBIS SOV, 97-290, 17 October 1997, RFEIRL Daily Report, 20 October 1997.
205. Moscow, Interfax, in English, 17 October 1997; FBIS SOV, 97-290, 17 October 1997, RFEIRL Daily Report, 20 October 1997.
206. Dmitry Trenin, 'Russia's security interests and policies in the Caucasus region', Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, Brussels, VUB University Press, 1996, p 99.
207. Pavel Baev, Challenges and Options in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1997, pp 6-8, 15; Taras Kuzio, 'Nato enlargement: the view from the East', European Security, VI, 1, Spring, 1997 pp 57-58.
208. Pavel Baev, Challenges and Options in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 1997, pp 6-8, 15; Taras Kuzio, 'Nato enlargement: the view from the East', European Security, VI, 1, Spring, 1997 pp 57-58.
209. Moscow, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, in Russian, 20 September 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-266, 23 September 1997.
210. Moscow, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, in Russian, 20 September 1997, FBIS SOV, 97-266, 23 September 1997.
211. Rumer, pp 14-15; Blank, 'Central Asia's international relations', pp 117-122, 'The geopolitical sleuth: the view through the fog', The Economist, 3 January 1998, p 19.
212. Rumer, pp 14-15; Blank, 'Central Asia's international relations', pp 117-122, 'The geopolitical sleuth: the view through the fog', The Economist, 3 January 1998, p 19.
213. Rumer, pp 14-15; Blank, 'Central Asia's international relations', pp 117-122, 'The geopolitical sleuth: the view through the fog', The Economist, 3 January 1998, p 19.