The El Nino stochastic oscillator

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 15, Issue 7, 1999, Pages 521-531

  Burgers, G ^a  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; OSCILLATION;

EID: 0032721045     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s003820050297     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Balescu R (1975) Equilibrium and nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. J Wiley and Sons, New York, 742 pp
2. Balmaseda MA, Anderson DLT, Davey MK (1994) ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres. Tellus 46A : 497-511
3. Barnett TP, Preisendorfer R (1987) Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon Weather Rev 115: 1825-1850
4. Barnston GB, van den Dool HM, Zebiak SE, Barnett TP, Ming Ji, Rodenhuis DR, Cane MA, Leetmaa A, Graham NE, Ropelewski CF, Kousky VE, O'Lenic EA, Livezey RE (1994) Long-lead seasonal forecasts, where do we stand? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 75: 2097-2114
5. Battisti DS, Hirst AC (1989) Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and non-linearity. J. Atoms Sci 46: 1687-1712
6. Blanke B, Neelin JD, Gutzler D (1997) Estimating the effect of stochastic wind stress forcing on ENSO irregularity. J Clim 10: 1473-1486
7. Blumenthal MB (1991) Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 4: 766-784
8. Burgers G (1998) A stochastic oscillator model for El Niño forecasts. In: WMO International Workshop on Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (Toulouse, France. 17-21 November 1997), WMO/TD-881, Geneva, Switzerland, pp 109-112
9. Cane MA (1992) Tropical Pacific ENSO models: ENSO as a mode of the coupled system. In: Trenberth K.E. (ed) Climate System Modelling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK., pp 583-614
10. Chang P, Ji L, Li H, Flügel M (1996) Chaotic dynamics versus stochastic processes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Physica D98: 301-320
11. Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. Nature 385: 516-518
12. Chu PS, Katz RW (1985) Modeling and forecasting the Southern Oscillation: a time domain approach. Mon Weather Rev 113: 1876-1888
13. Chu PS, Katz RW (1987) Measures of predictability with applications to Southern Ocean. Mon Weather Rev 115: 1542-1549
14. Eckert C, Latif M (1997) Predictability of a stochastically forced hybrid coupled model of El Niño. J Clim 10: 1488-1504
15. Flügel M, Chang P (1996) Impact of dynamical and stochastic processes on the predictability of ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 23: 2089-2092
16. Griffies SM, Tziperman E (1995) A linear thermohaline oscillator driven by stochastic atmosphere forcing. J Clim 8: 2440-2453
17. Griffies SM, Bryan K (1997) Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science 275: 181-184
18. Gu D, Philander SMH (1997) Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science 275: 805-807
19. Hasselmann K (1976) Stochastic climate models. Part I. Theory. Tellus, 18: 473-485
20. Hasselmann K (1988) PIPs and POPs: the reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interaction and oscillation patterns. J Geophys Res 93: 11 015-11 021
21. Hirst AC (1986) Unstable and damped equatorial modes in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J Atmos Sci 43: 606-630
22. Ji M, Behringer W, Leetmaa A (1998) An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialisation. Part II: the coupled model. Mon Weather Rev 126: 1022-1034
23. Jin FF (1997) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model. J Atmos Sci 54: 811-829
24. Jin FF, Neelin JD, Ghil M (1994) ENSO on the devil's staircase. Science 264: 70-72
25. Jin FF, Neelin JD, Ghil M (1996) El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: subharmonic frequency-locking and aperiodicity. Physica D98: 442-465
26. Kleeman R (1993) On the dependence of the hindcast skill on ocean thermodynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 6: 2012-2033
27. Kleeman R, Power SB (1994) Limits to predictabilaity in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise. Tellus 46A : 529-540
28. Kleeman R, Moore A, Smith NR (1995) Assimilation of sub-surface thermal data into an intermediate tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon Weather Rev 123: 3103-3113
29. Langevin P (1908) Sur la théorie du mouvement brownien (On the theory of Brownian motion). Comptes Rendus 46: 530-533
30. Latif M, Anderson D, Barett T, Cane M, Kleeman R, Leetmaa A, O'Brien J, Rosati A, Schneider E (1998) A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J Geophys Res 103: 14375-14393
31. Lau KM (1985) Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 42: 1552-1558
32. Li T (1997) Phase transition of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: A stationary SST mode. J Atmos Sci 54: 2872-2887
33. Mantua NJ, Battisti DS (1995) Aperiodic variability in the Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model: air-sea interactions in the western equatorial Pacific. J Clim 8: 2897-2927
34. Münnich M, Latif M. Venzke S, Maier-Reimer E (1998) Decadal oscillations in a simple coupled model J Clim 11: 3309-3319
35. Neelin JD (1990) A hybrid coupled general circulation model for El Niño Studies. J Atmos Sci 47: 647-693
36. Penland C, Sardeshmukh PD (1995) The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 8: 1999-2024
37. Philander SGH (1990) El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, San Diego, 293 pp
38. Reynolds RW, Smith TM (1994) Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J Clim 7: 929-948
39. Rivin T, Tziperman E (1997) Linear versus self-sustained interdecadal thermo-haline variability in a coupled box model. J Phys Oceanogr 27: 1216-1232
40. Schneider EK, Huang B, Shukla J (1995) Ocean wave dynamics and El Nino. J Clim 8: 2415-2439
41. Stockdale TN, Anderson DLT, Alves JOS, Balmaseda MA (1998) Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature 392: 370-373
42. Suarez MJ, Schopf PS (1988) A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J Atmos Sci 45: 3283-3287
43. Tahl SK, Karoly DJ, Yanc JI (1998) Time-frequency variability of ENSO and stochastic simulations. J Clim 11: 2258-2272
44. Trenberth KE, Hoar TJ (1996) The 1990-1995 El Niño Southern Oscillation event: longest on record. Geophys Res Lett 23: 57-60
45. Trenberth KE, Hoar TJ (1997) El Niño and climate change. Geophys Res Lett 24: 3057-3060
46. Tziperman E, Stone L, Cane MA, Jarosh H (1994) El Niño chaos: overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator. Science 263: 72-74
47. Tziperman E, Zebiak SE, Cane MA (1997) Mechanisms of seasonal-ENSO interaction. J Atmos Sci 54: 61-71
48. Zebiak SE, Cane MA (1987) A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115: 2262-2278