Applied historical ecology: Using the past to manage for the future

Ecological Applications

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 1999, Pages 1189-1206

  Swetnam, Thomas W ^a   Allen, Craig D ^b   Betancourt, Julio L ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Disturbance; Fire history; Historical ecology; Packrat middens; Paleoecology; Range of natural variation; Repeat photography; Restoration; Southwestern United States; Tree rings; Vegetation change

Indexed keywords

ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT; HISTORICAL ECOLOGY;

EID: 0032700230     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1189:AHEUTP]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (136)

1. Agee, J. K. 1993. Fire ecology of Pacific Northwest forests. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
2. Allen, C. D. 1989. Changes in the landscape of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. Dissertation. University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.
3. _. 1994. Ecological perspective: linking ecology, GIS, and remote sensing to ecosystem management. Pages 111-139 in A. V. Sample, editor. Remote sensing and GIS in ecosystem management. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
4. Allen, C. D., J. L. Betancourt, and T. W. Swetnam. 1998. Landscape changes in the southwestern United States: techniques, long-term data sets, and trends. Pages 71-84 in T. Sisk, editor. Perspectives on the land use history of North America: a context for understanding our changing environment. U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Science Report USGS/BRD/BSR-1998-0003.
5. Allen, C. D., and D. D. Breshears. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 95:14839-14842.
6. Allen, C. D., R. Touchan, and T. W. Swetnam. 1995. Landscape-scale fire history studies support fire management action at Bandelier. Park Science 15:18-19.
7. Allen, E. B., W. W. Covington, and D. Falk. 1996. Supporting research in restoration biology; NSF workshop offers recommendations. Restoration and Management Notes 14:148-150.
8. Anderson, N. J. 1995. Using the past to predict the future: lake sediments and the modeling of limnological disturbance. Ecological Modelling 78:149-172.
9. Anderson, R. S. 1989. Development of the southwestern ponderosa pine forests: what do we really know? Pages 15-22 in Multiresource management of ponderosa pine forests. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-185.
10. Anderson, R. S., and S. L. Carpenter. 1991. Vegetation change in Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California, during the protohistoric period. Madrono 38:1-13.
11. Archer, S. 1994. Woody plant encroachment into southwestern grasslands and savannas: rates, patterns and proximate causes. Pages 13-68 in M. Vavra, W. Laycock, and R. Pierper, editors. Ecological implications of livestock herbivory in the west. Society for Range Management, Denver, Colorado, USA.
12. 2. Climate Change 28:91-99.
13. Arno, S. F., H. Y. Smith, and M. A. Krebs. 1997. Old growth ponderosa pine and western larch stand structures: influences of pre-1900 fires and fire exclusion. U.S. Forest Service Research Paper INT-RP-495.
14. Bahre, C. J. 1991. A legacy of change: historic human impact on vegetation in the Arizona borderlands. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
15. Baisan, C. H., and T. W. Swetnam. 1990. Fire history on a desert mountain range: Rincon Mountain, Wilderness, Arizona, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 20:1559-1569.
16. Baisan, C. H., and T. W. Swetnam. 1997. Interactions of fire regimes and land use history in the central Rio Grande Valley. U.S. Forest Research Paper RM-RP-330.
17. Barnett, T. P., L. Bengtsson, K. Arpe, M. Flügel, N. Graham. M. Latif, J. Ritchie, E. Roeckner, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida, and M. Tyree. 1994. Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies. Tellus 46A:381-397.
18. Betancourt, J. L. 1996. Long- and short-term climate influences on southwestern shrublands. Pages 5-9 in J. R. Barrow, E. D McArthur, R. E. Sosebee, and R. J. Tausch, compilers. Proceedings: shrubland ecosystem dynamics in a changing environment; 1995, May 23-25; Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report INT-GTR-338.
19. Betancourt, J. L., E. A. Pierson, K. Aasen-Rylander, J. A. airchild-Parks, and J. S. Dean. 1993. Influence of history and climate on New Mexico pinyon-juniper woodlands. Pages 42-62 in E. F. Aldon and D. W. Shaw, editors. Managing pinyon-juniper ecosystems for sustainability and social needs; proceedings of the symposium April 26-30, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-236.
20. Betancourt, J. L., W. S. Schuster, J. B. Mitton, and R. S. Anderson. 1991. Fossil and genetic history of a pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) isolate. Ecology 72:1685-1697.
21. Betancourt, J. L., and T. R. Van Devender. 1981. Holocene vegetation in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, USA. Science 214:656-658.
22. Betancourt, J. L., T. R. Van Devender, and P. S. Martin. 1990. Packrat middens: the last 40 000 years of biotic change. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
23. Brenner, J., 1991. Southern Oscillation anomalies and their relation to Florida wildfires. International Journal of Wildland Fire 1:73-78.
24. Brenner, M., T. J. Whitmore, M. S. Flannery, and M. W. Binford. 1993. Paleolimnological methods for defining target conditions for lake restoration: Florida case studies. Lake and Reservoir Management 7:209-217.
25. Brown, J. H. 1995. Macroecology. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
26. Brown, P. M., M. R. Kaufmann, and W. D. Shepperd. 1999. Long-term, landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado. Landscape Ecology, in press.
27. Carlton, J. T. 1998. Apostrophe to the ocean. Conservation Biology 12:1165-1167.
28. Christensen, N. L. 1988. Succession and natural disturbance: paradigms, problems, and preservation of natural ecosystems. Pages 62-86 in J. K. Agee and D. R. Johnson, editors. Ecosystem management for parks and wilderness. University of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington, USA.
29. _. 1989. Wilderness and natural disturbance. Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy (Summer 1989): 46-49.
30. Christensen, N. L., et al. 1996. The report of the Ecological Society of America committee on the scientific basis for ecosystem management. Ecological Applications 6:665-691.
31. Clark, J. S. 1996. Testing disturbance theory with long-term data: alternative life history solutions to the distributions of events. American Naturalist 148:976-996.
32. 4 plant dominance and summer rainfall in the southwestern USA from isotopic study of herbivore teeth. Quaternary Research 50:179-193
33. Covington, W. W., P. Z. Fulé, M. M. Moore, S. C. Hart, T. E. Kolb, J. N. Mast, S. S. Sackett, and M. R. Wagner. 1997. Restoring ecosystem health in ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest. Journal of Forestry 95:23-29.
34. Covington, W. W., and M. M. Moore. 1994. Southwestern ponderosa pine forest structure and resource conditions: changes since Euro-American settlement. Journal of Forestry 92:39-47.
35. Crowley, T. J., G. R. North. 1991. Paleoclimatology. Oxford University Press, New York, New York. USA.
36. Dahm, C. W., and B. W. Geils. 1997. An assessment of ecosystem health in the Southwest. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR-295.
37. Davis, M. B. 1989. Retrospective studies. Pages 71-89 in G. E. Likens, editor. Long-term studies in ecology. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
38. Delcourt, P. A., and H. R. Delcourt. 1998. Paleoecological insights on conservation of biodiversity: a focus on species, ecosystems, and landscapes. Ecological Applications 8:921-934.
39. Denevan, W. M. 1992. The pristine myth: the landscape of the Americas in 1492. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 82:369-385.
40. Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, H. F. Diaz, and D. M. Meko. 1998. North-south precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Journal of Climate 11:3095-3111.
41. Dieterich, J. H., and T. W. Swetnam. 1984. Dendrochronology of a fire scarred ponderosa pine. Forest Science 30:238-247.
42. Dunbar, R. B., and J. E. Cole. 1993. Coral records of ocean-atmosphere variability: Report from the Workshop on Coral Paleoclimate Reconstruction, Nov. 5-8, 1992, La Parguera, Puerto Rico, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate and Global Change Program, Special Report No. 10.
43. Dutton, A. A., and D. T. Bunting. 1981. Arizona then and now: a comprehensive rephotographic project. Ag2 Press, Phoenix, Arizona, USA.
44. Ely, L. L., Y. Enzel, J. E. O'Conner, and V. R. Baker. 1991. Paleoflood records and risk assessment: examples from the Colorado River Basin. Pages 105-110 in J. Ganoulis, editor. Water resources engineering and risk assessment. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Advanced Study Institute Series G: Ecological Sciences, Volume 29. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
45. Fastie, C. L. 1995. Causes and ecosystem consequences of multiple pathways of primary succession at Glacier Bay, Alaska. Ecology 76:1899-1916.
46. Foster, D. R., and G. Motzkin. 1998. Ecology and conservation in the cultural landscape of New England: lessons from nature's history. Northeastern Naturalist 5:111-126.
47. Foster, D. R., D. A. Orwig, and J. S. McLachlan. 1996. Ecological and conservation insights from reconstructive studies of temperate old-growth forests. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 11:419-425.
48. Foster, D. R., P. K. Schoonmaker, and S. T. A. Pickett. 1990. Insights from paleoecology to community ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 5:119-122.
49. Fritts, H. C. 1976. Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, New York, New York, USA.
50. Fritts, H. C., and T. W. Swetnam. 1989. Dendroecology: a tool for evaluating variations in past and present forest environments. Advances in Ecological Research 19:111-189.
51. Fulé, P. Z., and W. W. Covington. 1997. Changing fire regimes in Mexican pine forests: ecological and management implications. Journal of Forestry 94:33-38.
52. Fulé, P. Z., W. W. Covington, and M. M. Moore. 1997. Determining reference conditions for ecosystem management of southwestern ponderosa pine. Ecological Applications 7:895-908.
53. Galatowitsch, S. M. 1990. Using the original land survey notes to reconstruct presettlement landscapes in the American West. Great Basin Naturalist 50:181-191.
54. Gore, A. P., E. A. Johnson, and H. P. Lo. 1985. Estimating the time a dead tree has been on the ground. Ecology 66:1981-1983.
55. Gottfried, G. J., T. W. Swetnam, C. D. Allen, J. L. Betancourt, and A. L. Chung-McCoubrey. 1995. Pinyon-juniper woodlands. Pages 95-132 in D. M. Finch and J. A. Tainter, technical editors. Ecology, diversity, and sustainability of the Middle Rio Grande Basin. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR-268.
56. Grissino-Mayer, H. D. 1996. A 2129-year reconstruction of precipitation for northwestern New Mexico, USA. Pages 191-204, in J. S. Dean, D. M. Meko, and T. W. Swetnam, editors. Tree rings, environment, and humanity. Radiocarbon, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
57. Grissino-Mayer, H. D., and T. W. Swetnam. 1997. Multi-century history of wildfire in the ponderosa pine forests of El Malpais National Monument. New Mexico Bureau of Mines and Mineral Resources Bulletin 156:163-171.
58. Grover, H. D., and H. B. Musick. 1990. Shrubland encroachment in southern New Mexico, U.S.A.: an analysis of desertification processes in the American Southwest. Climatic Change 17:305-330.
59. Hastings, J. R., and R. M. Turner. 1965. The changing mile: an ecological study of vegetation change with time in the lower mile of an arid and semiarid region. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
60. Hessburg, P. F., B. G. Smith, and R. B. Salter. 1999. Detecting change in forest spatial patterns from reference conditions. Ecological Applications 9:1232-1252.
61. Holling, C. S., and G. K. Meffe. 1996. Command and control and the pathology of natural resource management. Conservation Biology 10:328-337.
62. Humphrey, R. R. 1987. Ninety years and 535 miles: vegetation changes along the Mexican border. University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
63. Hunter, M. L., Jr. 1996. Benchmarks for managing ecosystems: Are human activities natural? Conservation Biology 10:695-697.
64. Hunter, M. L., Jr., G. L. Jacobson, and T. Webb III. 1988.Paleoecology and the coarse-filter approach to maintaining biological diversity. Conservation Biology 2:375-385.
65. Idso, S. B. 1992. Shrubland expansion in the American Southwest. Climate Change 22:85-86.
66. Jackson, S. T. 1994. Pollen and spores in Quaternary lake sediments as sensors of vegetation composition: theoretical models and empirical evidence. Pages 253-286 in: A. Traverse, editor. Sedimentation of organic particles. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
67. _. 1997. Documenting natural and human-caused plant invasions using paleoecological methods. Pages 37-55 in: J. O. Luken and J. W. Thieret, editors. Assessment and management of plant invasions. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
68. Jackson, S. T., J. T. Overpeck, T. Webb, III, S. E. Keattch, and K. H. Anderson. 1997. Mapped plant-macrofossil and pollen records of late Quaternary vegetation change in eastern North America. Quaternary Science Reviews 16:1-70.
69. Johnson, E. A., K. Miyanishi, and H. Kleb. 1994. The hazards of interpretation of static age structures as shown by stand reconstructions in a Pinus contorta Picea-Engelmannii forest. Journal of Ecology 82:923-931.
70. 2 and plant-plant interactions: effects on natural vegetation. Vegetatio 104-105:157-170.
71. Kaufmann, M. R., R. T. Graham, D. A. Boyce, Jr., W. H. Moir, L. Perry, R. T. Reynolds, R. L. Bassett, P. Mehlhop, C. B. Edminster, W. M. Block, and P. S. Corn. 1994. An ecological basis for ecosystem management. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR-246.
72. Kaufmann, M. R., L. S. Huckaby, C. Regan, and J. Popp. 1998. Forest reference conditions for ecosystem management in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-19.
73. Kochel, R. C., and V. R. Baker. 1982. Paleoflood hydrology. Science 215:353-360.
74. Landres, P., P. Morgan, and F. Swanson. 1999. Overview of the use of natural variability in managing ecological systems. Ecological Applications 9:1279-1288.
75. Lanner, R. M., and T. R. Van Devender. 1998. The recent history of pinyon pines in the American Southwest. Pages 171-182 in D. M. Richardson, editor. Ecology and biogeography of pinus. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
76. Leopold, A. 1924. Grass, brush, timber, and fire in southern Arizona. Journal of Forestry 22:2-10.
77. _. 1941. Wilderness as a land laboratory. Living Wilderness 6:3.
78. Levin, S. A. 1992. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: the Robert H. MacArthur award lecture. Ecology 73:1943-1967.
79. Lloyd, A. H. 1996. Patterns and processes of treeline forest response to late Holocene climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California. Dissertation. University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
80. Lloyd, A. H., and L. J. Graumlich. 1997. Holocene dynamics of treeline forests in the Sierra Nevada. Ecology 78:1199-1210.
81. Malde, H. E. 1973. Geologic benchmarks by terrestrial photography. U.S. Geological Survey Journal of Research 1:193-206.
82. Manley, P. N., et al. 1995. Sustaining ecosystems: a conceptual framework. Version 1.0. U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region and Research Station R5-EM-TP-001.
83. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes. 1998. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392:779-787.
84. Mast, J., T. T. Veblen, and M. E. Hodgson. 1996. Tree invasion within a pine-grassland ecotone: an approach with historic aerial photography and GIS modeling. Forest Ecology and Management 93:181-194.
85. Millar, C. I. 1997. Comments on historical variation and desired future condition as tools for terrestrial landscape analysis. Pages 105-131, in S. Sommarstrom, editor. Proceedings of the Sixth Biennial Watershed Management Conference, Water Resources Center Report No. 92, University of California, Davis, California, USA.
86. Millar, C. I., and W. Wolfenden. 1999. The role of climate change in interpreting historic variability. Ecological Applications 9:1207-1216.
87. Miller, C., and D. L. Urban. 1999. A model of surface fire, climate, and forest pattern in Sierra Nevada, California. Ecological Modelling 114:113-135.
88. Miller, R. F., and J. A. Rose. 1995. Historic expansion of Juniperus occidentalis (western juniper) in southeastern Oregon. Great Basin Naturalist 55:37-45.
89. Miller, R. F., and P. E. Wigand. 1994. Holocene changes in semi-arid pinyon-juniper woodlands. Bioscience 44:465-474.
90. Millspaugh, S. H., and C. Whitlock. 1995. A 750-year fire history based on lake sediment records in central Yellowstone National Park, USA. The Holocene 5:283-292.
91. Moore, M. M., W. W. Covington, and P. Z. Fulé. 1999. Reference conditions and ecological restoration: a southwestern ponderosa pine perspective. Ecological Applications 9:1266-1277.
92. Morgan, P., G. H. Aplet, J. B. Haufler, H. C. Humphries, M. M. Moore, and W. D. Wilson. 1994. Historical range of variability: a useful tool for evaluating ecosystem change. Journal of Sustainable Forestry 2:87-111.
93. Neilson, R. P. 1986. High-resolution climatic analysis and Southwest biogeography. Science 232:27-34.
94. Nowak, C. L., R. S. Nowak, R. J. Tausch, and P. E. Wigand. 1994. Tree and shrub dynamics in northwestern Great Basin woodland and shrub steppe during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. American Journal of Botany 81:265-277.
95. Parsons, D. J. 1990. Restoring fire to the Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest: reconciling science, policy and practicality. Pages 271-299 in H. H. Glenn and T. M. Bonnicksen, editors. Restoration '89: the new management challenge. First annual meeting of the Society for Ecological Restoration, 16-20 January 1989, Oakland, California, USA. Society for Ecological Restoration, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
96. Parsons, D. J., D. M. Graber, J. K. Agee, and J. W. van Wagtendonk. 1986. Natural fire management in National Parks. Environmental Management 10:21-24.
97. Pickett, S. T. A., V. T. Parker, and P. L. Fiedler. 1992. The new paradigm in ecology: implications for conservation biology above the species level. Pages 65-88 in P. L. Fiedler and S. K. Jain, editors. Conservation biology: the theory and practice of nature conservation, preservation, and management. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
98. Premoli, A., S. Chischilly, and J. B. Mitton. 1994. Genetic variation in the establishment of new populations of pinyon pine. Biodiversity and Conservation 3:331-340.
99. Quigley, T. M., R. W. Hayes, and R. T. Graham, technical editors. 1996. Integrated scientific assessment for ecosystem management in the Interior Columbia Basin and portions of the Klamath and Great Basins. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-382.
100. Ricklefs, R. E. 1987. Community diversity: relative roles of local and regional processes. Science 235:167-171.
101. Rogers, G. F., H. E. Malde, and R. M. Turner. 1984. Bibliography of repeat photography for evaluating landscape change. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
102. Russell, E. W. B. 1997. People and the land through time: linking ecology and history. Yale University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
103. Samuels, M. L., and J. L. Betancourt. 1982. Modeling the long-term effects of fuelwood harvesting on pinyon-juniper woodlands. Environmental Management 6:505-515.
104. Savage, M., and T. W. Swetnam. 1990. Early and persistent fire decline in a Navajo ponderosa pine forest. Ecology 70:2374-2378.
105. Schmidt, J. C., R. H. Webb, R. A. Valdez, G. R. Marzolf, and L. E. Stevens. 1998. Science and values in river restoration in the Grand Canyon. Bioscience 48:735-747.
106. Shrader-Frechette, K. S., and E. D. McCoy. 1995. Natural landscapes, natural communities, and natural ecosystems. Forest and Conservation History 39 July: 138-142.
107. Simard, A. J., D. A. Haines, and W. A. Main. 1985. Relations between El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies and wildland fire activity in the United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 36:93-104.
108. Smol, J. P. 1992. Paleolimnology: an important tool for effective ecosystem management. Journal of Aquatic Ecosystem Health 1:49-58.
109. Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project (SNEP). 1996. Final Report to Congress: status of the Sierra Nevada. Volume 1. Assessment summaries and management strategies. Wildland Resources Center Report No. 36. Centers for Water and Wildland Resources, University of California, Davis, California, USA.
110. Sprugel, D. G. 1991. Disturbance, equilibrium, and environmental variability: what is "natural" vegetation in a changing environment. Biological Conservation 58:1-18.
111. Stephenson, N. L. 1999. Reference conditions for giant sequoia forest restoration: structure, process, and precision. Ecological Applications 9:1253-1265.
112. Stohlgren, T. J., D. Binkley, T. T. Veblen, and W. L. Baker. 1995. Attributes of reliable long-term landscape-scale studies: malpractice insurance for landscape ecologists. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 36:1-25.
113. Swanson, F. J., J. A. Jones, D. O. Wallin, and J. H. Cissel. 1994. Natural variability - implications for ecosystem management. Volume II: ecosystem management principles and applications. Pages 80-94 in M. E. Jensen and P. S. Bourgeron, technical editors; R. L. Everett, assessment team leader. Eastside forest ecosystem health assessment. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-
114. Swetnam, T. W. 1990. Fire history and climate in the southwestern United States. Pages 6-17 in J. S. Krammes, technical coordinator. Proceedings of symposium on effects of fire in management of southwestern U.S. natural resources, November 15-17, 1988, Tucson, Arizona. U.S. Forest Service General Techncial Report RM-GTRH-191.
115. _. 1993. Fire history and climate change in giant sequoia groves. Science 262:885-889.
116. Swetnam, T. W., and C. H. Baisan. 1996. Historical fire regime patterns in the southwestern United States since AD 1700. Pages 11-32 in C. D. Allen, technical editor. Fire effects in southwestern forests, proceedings of the second La Mesa Fire symposium, March 29-31, 1994, Los Alamos, New Mexico. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report RM-GTR-286.
117. Swetnam, T. W., C. H. Baisan, and J. M. Kaib. In press. Forest fire histories of the Sky Islands of La Frontera. In G. L. Webster and C. J. Bahre, editors. Changing plant life of La Frontera: observations of vegetation in the United States/Mexico borderlands. University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, New Mexico.
118. Swetnam, T. W., and J. L. Betancourt. 1990. Fire-southern oscillation relations in the southwestern United States. Science 249:1017-1020.
119. Swetnam, T. W., and J. L. Betancourt. 1998. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. Journal of Climate 11:3128-3147.
120. Swetnam, T. W., and A. M. Lynch. 1993. Mulitcentury, regional-scale patterns of western spruce budworm outbreaks. Ecological Monographs 63:399-424.
121. Tausch, R. J. 1996. Past changes, present and future impacts, and the assessment of community or ecosystem condition. Pages 97-101 in J. R Barrow, E. McArthur, E. Durant, and R. J. Tausch, compilers. Proceedings: shrublands ecosystem dynamics in a changing environment, 1995 May 23-25, Las Cruces, New Mexico. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report INT-GTR-388.
122. Thompson, L. G., et al. 1998. A 25 000-year tropical climate history from Bolivian ice cores. Science 282:1858-1864.
123. Thompson, R. S., C. Whitlock, S. P. Harrison, W. G. Spaulding, and P. J. Bartlein. 1993. Vegetation, lake levels and climate in the western United States. Pages 468-513 in H. E. Wright et al., editors. Global climates since the last glacial maximum. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
124. Touchan, R., T. W. Swetnam, and H. D. Grissino-Mayer. 1995. Effects of livestock grazing on pre-settlement fire regimes in New Mexico. Pages 268-272 in J. K. Brown, R. W. Mutch, C. W. Spoon, and R. H. Wakimoto, technical coordinators. Proceedings: symposium on fire in wilderness and park management, Missoula, Montana, March 30-April 1, 1993. U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report INT-GTR-320.
125. U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). 1999. Our changing planet. A report by the subcommittee on global change research. Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology Council. A supplement to the president's fiscal year 1999 budget. Washington, D.C., USA.
126. Vale, T. R. 1998. The myth of the humanized landscape: an example from Yosemite National Park. Natural Areas Journal 18:231-236.
127. Van Devender, T. R., R. S. Thompson, and J. L. Betancourt. 1987. Vegetation history of the deserts of the southwest North America, the nature and timing of the late Wisconsin-Holocene transition. Pages 323-325 in W. F. Ruddiman and H. E. Wright, Jr., editors. North America and adjacent oceans during the last deglaciation. The geology of North America, K-3, Geological Society of America.
128. 12C ratios of Pinus flexilis needles during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Science 264:239-243.
129. Van Metre, P. C., E. Callendar, and C. Fuller. 1997. Historical trends in organochlorine compounds in river basins using sediment cores from reservoirs. Environmental Science and Technology 31:2339-2344.
130. Veblen, T. T., and D. C. Lorenz. 1986. Anthropogenic disturbance and recovery patterns in montane forests, Colorado Front Range. Physical Geography 7:1-24.
131. Veblen, T. T., and D. C. Lorenz. 1991. The Colorado Front Range: a century of ecological change. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
132. Webb, R. H. 1996. Grand Canyon, a century of change: rephotography of the 1889-1890 Stanton expedition. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
133. Weng, C. and S. J. Jackson. In press. Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation history and paleoclimate of the Kaibab Plateau. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.
134. White, P. S., and J. L. Walker. 1997. Approximating nature's variation: selecting and using reference information in restoration ecology. Restoration Ecology 5:338-349.
135. Wight, J. R., and H. J. Fisser. 1968. Juniperus osteosperma in northwestern Wyoming: their distribution and ecology. University of Wyoming, Agricultural Experiment Station, Science Monograph 6:1-31.
136. Wright, C. W. 1952. An ecological description of an isolated pinyon pine grove. Thesis. University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA.