A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 23, Issue 11, 2003, Pages 1313-1334

  Fowler, H J ^a   Kilsby, C G ^a  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate variable(s); Extremes; Flooding; Rainfall; Recurrence interval; Region; Technique(s)

Indexed keywords

DAMS; DRAINAGE; FLOOD CONTROL; FLOODS; RAIN;

REGIONAL POOLING;

CLIMATOLOGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; EXTREME EVENT; FLOODING; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; RAINFALL; RECURRENCE INTERVAL;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 0141959763     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.943     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Eischeid JK, Jones PD, Kelly PM, Goodess CM. 1987. Precipitation fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere land areas since the mid-19th century. Science 237: 171-275.
2. Brunetti M, Buffoni L, Maugeri M, Nanni T. 2000. Precipitation intensity trends in northern Italy. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1017-1031.
3. Cullum D. 1996. Some features of Northern Hemisphere weather during autumn 1995. Weather 51: 141-143.
4. Dales MY, Reed DW. 1989. Regional flood and storm hazard assessment. Institute of Hydrology Rep. No 102. IH, Wallingford, UK.
5. Diaz HF, Bradley RS, Eischeid JK. 1989. Precipitation fluctuations over global land areas since the late 1800s. Journal of Geophysical Research 94: 1195-1240.
6. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO. 2000. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289: 2068-2074.
7. Efron B. 1979. Bootstrap methods: another look at the jack-knife. Annals of Statistics 7: 1-26.
8. Fleming G. 2001. Managing flood risk: past, present and future. In Flood Risk in a Changing Climate. Discussion Meeting at the Royal Society, London, 21-22 November, 2001.
9. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. 2003. Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 30(13): 1720.
10. Frei C, Schar C. 2001. Detection probability of trends in rare events: theory and application to heavy precipitation in the alpine region. Journal of Climate 14: 1568-1584.
11. Gringorten II. 1963. A plotting rule for extreme probability paper. Journal of Geophysical Research 68: 813-814.
12. Groisman PY, Karl TR, Easterling DR, Knight RW, Jamason PF, Hennessy KJ, Suppiah R, Page CM, Wibig J, Fortuniak K, Razuvaev VN, Douglas A, Forland E, Zhai PM. 1999. Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: important indicators of climatic change. Climatic Change 42: 243-283.
13. Hennesey KJ, Gregory JM, Mitchell JF. 1997. Change in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Climate Dynamics 13: 667-680.
14. Hosking JRM. 1997. Fortran routines for use with the method of L-moments. Research Report RC 20525 (90933) Version 3.02, IBM Research Division, New York.
15. Hosking JRM, Wallis JR. 1988. The effect of intersite dependence on regional flood frequency analysis. Water Resources Research 24: 588-600.
16. Hosking JRM, Wallis JR. 1997. Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments. Cambridge University Press.
17. Hosking JRM, Wallis JR, Wood EF. 1985. Estimation of the generalised extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted moments. Technometrics 27: 251-261.
18. IH 1999. Flood Estimation Handbook. CEH Wallingford: Wallingford, UK.
19. Iwashima T, Yamamoto R. 1993. A statistical analysis of the extreme events: long-term trend of heavy daily precipitation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 71: 637-640.
20. Jones PD, Reid PA. 2001. Assessing future changes in extreme precipitation over Britain using regional climate model integrations. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1337-1356.
21. Karl TR, Knight RW. 1998. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 231-241.
22. Lamb R. 2001. To what extent can the October/November 2000 floods be attributed to climate change. DEFRA FD2304 Final Report.
23. Marsh TJ. 1996. The 1995 drought - a signal of climatic instability? Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Water, Maritime and Energy 118: 189-195.
24. Marsh TJ. 2001. The 2000/2001 floods in the UK - a brief overview. Weather, 56: 343-345.
25. McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A, Holbrook N, Kothavala Z, Balachova O, Hockstra J. 1999. Assessing simulations of daily temperature and precipitation variability with global climate models for present and enhanced greenhouse climates. International Journal of Climatology 19: 1-26.
26. Murphy JM, Mitchell JFB. 1995. Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model to increasing carbon-dioxide. Part II: spatial and temporal structure of response. Journal of Climate 8: 57-80.
27. NERC. 1975. Flood Studies Report. Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford, Oxford.
28. Osborn TJ, Hulme M, Jones PD, Basnett TA. 2000. Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation. International Journal of Climatology 20: 347-364.
29. Palmer TN, Raisanen J. 2002. Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415: 512-514.
30. Reed DW, Faulkner DS, Stewart EJ. 1999. The FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation. II: description, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 3: 197-203.
31. Robson A, Reed D. 1999. Flood Estimation Handbook. Volume 3. Statistical Procedures for Flood Frequency Estimation. Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford.
32. Weather Log. 1993. October. Royal Meteorological Society publication.
33. Weather Log. 1995. September. Royal Meteorological Society publication.
34. Wigley TML, Lough JM, Jones PD. 1984. Spatial patterns of precipitation in England and Wales and a revised, homogenous England and Wales precipitation series. Journal of Climatology 4: 1-25.
35. Zhai PM, Sun AJ, Ren FM, Liu XN, Gao B, Zhang Q. 1999. Chances of climate extremes in China. Climatic Change 42: 203-218.