Predictions of climate change over Europe using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 20, Issue 5, 2000, Pages 489-501

  Murphy, James ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate models; Downscaling; Europe; Precipitation; Surface temperature

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DOWNSCALING; DYNAMIC ANALYSIS; PREDICTION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EUROPE;

EID: 0034114628     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200004)20:5<489::AID-JOC484>3.0.CO;2-6     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Bhaskaran, B., Jones, R.G., Murphy, J.M. and Noguer, M. 1996. 'Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon using a nested regional climate model: domain size experiments', Clim. Dyn., 12, 573-587.
2. Bhaskaran, B., Jones, R.G. and Murphy, J.M. 1998. 'Intraseasonal oscillation in the Indian summer monsoon simulated by global and nested regional climate models', Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3124-3134.
3. Busuioc, A., von Storch, H. and Schnur, R. 1999. 'Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions', J. Clim., 12, 258-269.
4. Cavazos, T. 1999. 'Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas', J. Clim., 12, 1506-1523.
5. 2 precipitation changes for the Susquehanna Basin: down-scaling from the Genesis general circulation model', Int. J. Climatol., 18, 65-76.
6. Department of the Environment. 1996. Review of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom, HMSO, London.
7. Gibson, R.K., Kållberg, P., Uppala, S., Hernandez, A., Nomura, A. and Serrano, E. 1997. ECMWF Re-Analysis Project Report Series, 1, ERA Description, ECMWF.
8. Giorgi, F., Bates, G.T. and Nieman, S.J. 1993. 'The multiyear surface climatology of a Regional Atmospheric Model over the western United States', J. Clim., 6, 75-95.
9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1990. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
10. Johns, T.C., Carnell, R.E., Crossley, J.F., Gregory, J.M., Mitchell, J.F.B., Senior, C.A., Tett, S.F.B. and Wood, R.A. 1997. 'The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation', Clim. Dyn., 13, 103-134.
11. Jones, R.G., Murphy, J.M. and Noguer, M. 1995. 'Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model. I: assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries', Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 1413-1449.
12. Jones, R.G., Murphy, J.M., Noguer, M. and Keen, A.B. 1997. Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model. II: comparison of driving and regional model responses to a doubling of carbon dioxide', Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 265-292.
13. Karl, T.R., Wang, W.-C., Schlesinger, M.E., Knight, R.W. and Portman, D. 1990. A method of relating general circulation model simulated climate to the observed local climate. Part I: seasonal statistics', J. Clim., 3, 1053-1079.
14. Kattenberg, A., Giorgi, F., Grassl, H., Meehl, G.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Stouffer, R.J., Tokioka, T., Weaver, A.J. and Wigley, T.M.L. 1996. Climate models - projections of the future' in Houghton, J.T., Meiro Filho, L.G., Callendar, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K. (eds), Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. The Second Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 285-357.
15. Katz, R.W. and Brown, B.G. 1992. 'Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages', Clim. Change, 21, 289-302.
16. Kidson, J.W. and Thompson, C.S. 1998. 'A comparison of statistical and model-based downscaling techniques for estimating local climate variations', J. Clim., 11, 735-753.
17. 2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model', J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 3-15.
18. McGregor, J.L. and Walsh, K.J. 1993. 'Nested simulations of perpetual January climate over the Australian region', J. Geophys. Res., 99 (D10), 20889-20905.
19. Mitchell, J.F.B. and Gregory, J.M. 1992. 'Climatic consequences of emissions and a comparison of IS92a and SA90', in Houghton J.T., Callendar, B.A. and Varney, S.K. (eds), Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 171-182.
20. Murphy, J.M. 1999. 'An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate', J. Clim., 12, 2256-2284.
21. Noguer, M. 1994. 'Using statistical techniques to deduce local climate distributions. An application for model validation', Met. Apps., 1, 277-287.
22. Noguer, M., Jones, R.G. and Murphy, J.M. 1998. 'Effect of systematic errors in the lateral boundary forcing on the climatology of a nested regional climate model over Europe', Clim. Dyn., 14, 691-712.
23. Osborn, T.J. and Hulme, M. 1997. 'Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation', J. Clim., 10, 1885-1908.
24. Palutikof, J.P., Winkler, J.A., Goodess, C.M. and Andresen, J.A. 1997. 'The simulation of daily temperature time series from GCM output. Part I: comparison of model data with observations', J. Clim., 10, 2497-2513.
25. Senior, C.A. 1999. 'Comparison of mechanisms of cloud-climate feedbacks in GCMs', J. Clim., 12, 1480-1489.
26. von Storch, H., Zorita, E. and Cubasch, U. 1993. 'Downscaling of global climate estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime', J. Clim., 6, 1161-1171.
27. Watson, R.D., Zinyowera, M.C. and Moss, R.H. (eds). 1998. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
28. Wetherald, R.T. and Manabe, S. 1995. 'The mechanisms of summer dryness induced by greenhouse warming', J. Clim., 8, 3096-3108.
29. Wilby, R.L. and Wigley, T.M.L. 1997. 'Downscaling General Circulation Model output: a review of methods and limitations', Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21, 530-548.
30. Wilby, R.L. and Wigley, T.M.L. 1999. 'Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships', Int. J. Climatol., 19 (in press).