메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 10, Issue 1, 2019, Pages

Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; EXTREME EVENT; HUMAN ACTIVITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 85064945220     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (123)

References (45)
  • 1
    • 84928083848 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Field, C. B., et al., A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA
    • IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. (ed. Field, C. B., et al.) 582 pp. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2012).
    • (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation , pp. 582
  • 4
    • 85042926141 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explaining extreme events of 2015 from a climate perspective
    • Herring, S. C., et al. (eds.). Explaining extreme events of 2015 from a climate perspective. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 97, S1–S145 (2016).
    • (2016) Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc , vol.97 , pp. SS1-S145
    • Herring, S.C.1
  • 5
    • 84958761234 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extreme weather events and climate change concern
    • Konisky, D. M., Hughes, L. & Kaylor, C. H. Extreme weather events and climate change concern. Clim. Change 134, 533–547 (2016).
    • (2016) Clim. Change , vol.134 , pp. 533-547
    • Konisky, D.M.1    Hughes, L.2    Kaylor, C.H.3
  • 6
    • 84922507589 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather and climate extremes: pacemakers of adaptation?
    • Travis, W. R. Weather and climate extremes: pacemakers of adaptation? Weather Clim. Extrem. 5, 29–39 (2014).
    • (2014) Weather Clim. Extrem. , vol.5 , pp. 29-39
    • Travis, W.R.1
  • 7
    • 84976332652 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How climate change affects extreme weather events
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC28XhtV2rt7rK
    • Stott, P. A. How climate change affects extreme weather events. Science 352, 1517–1518 (2016).
    • (2016) Science , vol.352 , pp. 1517-1518
    • Stott, P.A.1
  • 8
    • 84957724963 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
    • Stott, P. A. et al. Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 7, 23–41 (2015).
    • (2015) Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change , vol.7 , pp. 23-41
    • Stott, P.A.1
  • 10
    • 0037468186 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Liability for climate change
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXhsVKgtr8%3D
    • Allen, M. Liability for climate change. Nature 421, 891–892 (2003).
    • (2003) Nature , vol.421 , pp. 891-892
    • Allen, M.1
  • 11
    • 10344259103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXhtVeht7rM
    • Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A. & Allen, M. R. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432, 610–614 (2004).
    • (2004) Nature , vol.432 , pp. 610-614
    • Stott, P.A.1    Stone, D.A.2    Allen, M.R.3
  • 12
    • 84960146133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (2016) Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations
    • Bellprat, O. & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (2016) Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 2158–2164 (2016).
    • (2016) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.43 , pp. 2158-2164
    • Bellprat, O.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 13
    • 84974782890 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating simulated fraction of attributable risk using climate observations
    • Lott, F. C. & Stott, P. A. Evaluating simulated fraction of attributable risk using climate observations. J. Clim. 29, 4565–4575 (2016).
    • (2016) J. Clim. , vol.29 , pp. 4565-4575
    • Lott, F.C.1    Stott, P.A.2
  • 14
    • 85011654023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution
    • Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O’Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A. & Palmer, T. Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 143, 917–926 (2017).
    • (2017) Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. , vol.143 , pp. 917-926
    • Weisheimer, A.1    Schaller, N.2    O’Reilly, C.3    MacLeod, D.A.4    Palmer, T.5
  • 15
    • 85046395151 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Simple Pedagogical Model Linking Initial-Value Reliability with Trustworthiness in the Forced Climate Response
    • Palmer, T. N. & Weisheimer, A. A simple pedagogical model linking initial-value reliability with trustworthiness in the forced climate response. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0240.1 (2018).
    • (2018) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.99 , Issue.3 , pp. 605-614
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Weisheimer, A.2
  • 17
    • 84901456499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts
    • COI: 1:STN:280:DC%2BC2cnpsVaquw%3D%3D
    • Weisheimer, A. & Palmer, T. N. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts. J. R. Soc. Interface 11, 20131162 (2014).
    • (2014) J. R. Soc. Interface , vol.11 , pp. 20131162
    • Weisheimer, A.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 18
    • 84983605266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The attribution question
    • Otto, F. E. et al. The attribution question. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 813–816 (2016).
    • (2016) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.6 , pp. 813-816
    • Otto, F.E.1
  • 19
    • 84995642789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products
    • Angélil, O. et al. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products. Weather Clim. Extrem. 13, 35–43 (2016).
    • (2016) Weather Clim. Extrem. , vol.13 , pp. 35-43
    • Angélil, O.1
  • 20
    • 85045740431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of climate and weather event human influence attribution in Europe
    • Vautard. R. et al. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of climate and weather event human influence attribution in Europe. Clim. Dynam. 52, 1187–1210 (2019).
    • (2019) Clim. Dynam , vol.52 , pp. 1187-1210
    • Vautard, R.1
  • 21
    • 84876933022 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new HadGEM3-A-based system for attribution of weather-and climate-related extreme events
    • Christidis, N. et al. A new HadGEM3-A-based system for attribution of weather-and climate-related extreme events. J. Clim. 26, 2756–2783 (2013).
    • (2013) J. Clim. , vol.26 , pp. 2756-2783
    • Christidis, N.1
  • 22
    • 84928950030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales
    • Lott et al. Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 104017 (2014).
    • (2014) Environ. Res. Lett. , vol.9 , pp. 104017
    • Lott1
  • 23
    • 84939451069 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • weather@ home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution
    • Massey, N. et al. weather@ home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 141, 1528–1545 (2015).
    • (2015) Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. , vol.141 , pp. 1528-1545
    • Massey, N.1
  • 25
    • 1542280010 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
    • Schär, C. et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332–336 (2004).
    • (2004) Nature , vol.427 , pp. 332-336
    • Schär, C.1
  • 26
    • 34249885609 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Contribution of land‐atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves
    • Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Lüthi, D. & Schär, C. Contribution of land‐atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L029068 (2007).
    • (2007) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.34 , pp. L029068
    • Fischer, E.M.1    Seneviratne, S.I.2    Lüthi, D.3    Schär, C.4
  • 27
    • 84899694533 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation
    • COI: 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2cXmsVKktLs%3D
    • Miralles, D. G., Teuling, A. J., Van Heerwaarden, C. C. & de Arellano, J. V. G. Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation. Nat. Geosci. 7, 345–349 (2014).
    • (2014) Nat. Geosci. , vol.7 , pp. 345-349
    • Miralles, D.G.1    Teuling, A.J.2    Van Heerwaarden, C.C.3    de Arellano, J.V.G.4
  • 28
    • 53649093992 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries
    • Biasutti, M., Held, I. M., Sobel, A. H. & Giannini, A. SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. J. Clim. 21, 3471–3486 (2008).
    • (2008) J. Clim. , vol.21 , pp. 3471-3486
    • Biasutti, M.1    Held, I.M.2    Sobel, A.H.3    Giannini, A.4
  • 29
    • 85055700373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biased estimates of changes in climate extremes from prescribed SST simulations
    • Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U., Schleussner, C. F., King, A. D. & Knutti, R. Biased estimates of changes in climate extremes from prescribed SST simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 8500–8509 (2018).
    • (2018) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.45 , pp. 8500-8509
    • Fischer, E.M.1    Beyerle, U.2    Schleussner, C.F.3    King, A.D.4    Knutti, R.5
  • 30
    • 84929728390 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes
    • Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 560–564 (2015).
    • (2015) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.5 , pp. 560-564
    • Fischer, E.M.1    Knutti, R.2
  • 31
    • 82455219445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction
    • Slingo, J. & Palmer, T. Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 4751–4767 (2011).
    • (2011) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.369 , pp. 4751-4767
    • Slingo, J.1    Palmer, T.2
  • 32
    • 18544362809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting: calibration and combination
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Hagedorn, R. & Palmer, T. N. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting: calibration and combination. Tellus A 57, 234–252 (2005).
    • (2005) Tellus A , vol.57 , pp. 234-252
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 33
    • 52149124313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part I: two-meter temperatures
    • Hagedorn, R., Hamill, T. M. & Whitaker, J. S. Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part I: two-meter temperatures. Month. Weather Rev. 136, 2608–2619 (2008).
    • (2008) Month. Weather Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 2608-2619
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Hamill, T.M.2    Whitaker, J.S.3
  • 34
    • 44449086846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts
    • Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Weisheimer, A. & Rodwell, M. J. Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 459–470 (2009).
    • (2009) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.89 , pp. 459-470
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Weisheimer, A.3    Rodwell, M.J.4
  • 35
    • 70450208699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scaife, A. et al. Response: Towards seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 1551–1554 (2009).
    • (2009) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1551-1554
    • Scaife, A.1
  • 37
    • 84957823969 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations
    • Sippel, S. et al. A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 71 (2016).
    • (2016) Earth Syst. Dyn. , vol.7 , pp. 71
    • Sippel, S.1
  • 38
    • 84959432407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements
    • Jeon, S., Paciorek, C. J. & Wehner, M. F. Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements. Weather Clim. Extrem. 12, 24–32 (2016).
    • (2016) Weather Clim. Extrem. , vol.12 , pp. 24-32
    • Jeon, S.1    Paciorek, C.J.2    Wehner, M.F.3
  • 39
    • 85017509861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How suitable is quantile mapping for postprocessing GCM precipitation forecasts?
    • Zhao, T. et al. How suitable is quantile mapping for postprocessing GCM precipitation forecasts? J. Clim. 30, 3185–3196 (2017).
    • (2017) J. Clim. , vol.30 , pp. 3185-3196
    • Zhao, T.1
  • 40
    • 79953859129 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10
    • Jung, T., Vitart, F., Ferranti, L. & Morcrette, J. J. Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L07701 (2011).
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.38 , pp. L07701
    • Jung, T.1    Vitart, F.2    Ferranti, L.3    Morcrette, J.J.4
  • 41
    • 79952981311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?
    • Dole, R. et al. Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L06702 (2011).
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.38 , pp. L06702
    • Dole, R.1
  • 43
    • 84896707401 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset
    • Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J. & Lister, D. H. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol. 10.1002/joc.3711 (2013).
    • (2013) International Journal of Climatology , vol.34 , Issue.3 , pp. 623-642
    • Harris, I.1    Jones, P.D.2    Osborn, T.J.3    Lister, D.H.4
  • 45
    • 85042196674 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An R package for climate forecast verification
    • Manubens, N. et al. An R package for climate forecast verification. Environ. Model. Softw. 103, 29–42 (2018).
    • (2018) Environ. Model. Softw. , vol.103 , pp. 29-42
    • Manubens, N.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.