Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and Prolonged Weather Extremes in Boreal Summer

Geophysical Monograph Series

Volumn 226, Issue , 2017, Pages 61-73

  Coumou, Dim ^a,b   Kornhuber, Kai ^c   Lehmann, Jascha ^c   Petoukhov, Vladimir ^a,b  

^a INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Netherlands)

^b POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF POTSDAM   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85052004986     PISSN: 00658448     EISSN: 23288779     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1002/9781119068020.ch4     Document Type: Chapter

References (56)

1. Alexander, L. (2010), Extreme heat rooted in dry soils, Nat. Geosci., 4, 12–13.
2. Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton (2001), Stratospheric harbin-gers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584.
3. Barriopedro, D., E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo, and R. García‐Herrera (2011), The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224.
4. Bony, S., B. Stevens, D. M. W. Frierson, C. Jakob, M. Kageyama, R. Pincus, T. G. Shepherd, S. C. Sherwood, A. P. Siebesma, A. H. Sobel, M. Watanabe, and M. J. Webb (2015), Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, Nat. Geosci., 8, 261–268.
5. Chang, E. K. M., S. Lee, and K. Swanson (2002), Storm track dynamics, J. Climate, 15, 2163–2183.
6. Christidis, N., G. S. Jones, and P. Stott (2014), Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave, Nature Climate Change, 5, 46–50.
7. Cohen, J., J Screen, J C Furtado, M Barlow, D Whittleston, D Coumou, J Francis, K Dethloff, D Entekhabi, J Overland, and J. Jones (2014), Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid‐latitude weather, Nat. Geosci., 7, 627–637.
8. Compo, G. P., J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, N. Matsui, R. J. Allan, X. Yin, B. E. Gleason, R. S. Vose, G. Rutledge, P. Bessemoulin, S. Brönnimann, M. Brunet, R. I. Crouthamel, A. N. Grant, P. Y. Groisman, P. D. Jones, M. C. Kruk, A. C. Kruger, G. J. Marshall, M. Maugeri, H. Y. Mok, Ø. Nordli, T. F. Ross, R. M. Trigo, X. L. Wang, S. D. Woodruff, and S. J. Worley (2011), The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1–28.
9. Coumou, D., and A. Robinson (2013), Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 1–6.
10. Coumou, D., and S. Rahmstorf (2012), A decade of weather extremes, Nature Climate Change, 2, 491–496.
11. Coumou, D., A. Robinson, and S. Rahmstorf (2013), Global increase in record‐breaking monthly‐mean temperatures, Climate Change, 118, 771–782.
12. Coumou, D., J. Lehmann, and J. Beckmann (2015), The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, Science, 348, 324–327.
13. Coumou, D.,V. Petoukhov, and A. V. Eliseev (2011), Three-dimensional parameterizations of the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux in the Earth’s atmosphere, Nonlinear Process. Geophys., 18, 807–827.
14. Coumou, D., V. Petoukhov, S. Rahmstorf, S. Petri, and H. J. Schellnhuber (2014), Quasi‐resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 12331–12336.
15. Covey, C., K. M. Achutarao, U. Cubasch, P. Jones, S. J. Lambert, M. E. Mann, T. J. Phillips, and K. E. Taylor (2003), An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Global Planet. Change, 37, 103–133.
16. Cowtan, K., and R. G. Way (2013), Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 459–477.
17. Cvijanovic, I., and K. Caldeira (2015), Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming, Climate Dyn., 44 (5–6); doi: 10.1007/s00382‐015‐2489‐1.
18. Dee, D. P., S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V.. Hólm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge‐Sanz, J‐J. Morcrette, B‐K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J‐N. Thépaut, and F. Vitart (2011), The ERA‐interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597.
19. Dole, R., M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, X. W. Quan, T. Xu, and D. Murray (2011), Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38.
20. Francis, J., and S. J. Vavrus (2015), Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 10; Online: http://stacks.iop.org/1748‐9326/10/i=1/a= 014005?key=crossref.74581076f734b2377ec8042d3aebe25d.
21. Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in the mid‐latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06801.
22. Hong, C., H. Hsu, N. Lin, and H. Chiu (2011), Roles of European blocking and tropical‐extratropical interaction in the 2010 Pakistan flooding, Geophys. Res. Let., 38, 6.
23. Horton, D. E., N. C. Johnson, D. Singh, D. L. Swain, B. Rajaratnam, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2015), Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends, Nature, 522, 465–469.
24. Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K. C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetma, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, and D. Joseph (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40‐year reanalysis project, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 437–471. Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and PROLONGEd Weather Extremes in Boreal Summer 73
25. Kim, B‐M., S‐W. Son, S‐K. Min, J‐H. Jeong, S‐J. Kim, X. Zhang, T. Shim, and J‐H. Yoon (2014), Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea‐ice loss, Nat. Commun., 5, 4646.
26. Kyselý, J. (2008), Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on warm and cold temperature anomalies in Europe: Analysis over the 20th century, Global Planet. Change, 62, 147–63.
27. Kyselý, J., and R. Huth (2005), Changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe detected by objective and subjective methods, Theor. App. Climatol., 85, 19–36.
28. Lau, W. K. M., and K‐M. Kim (2012), The 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heat wave: Teleconnection of hydrometeorologi-cal extremes, J. Hydrometeor., 13, 392–403
29. Lehmann, J., and D. Coumou (2015), The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry, and wet extremes, Sci. Rep., 5, 1–9.
30. Lehmann, J., D. Coumou, K. Frieler, A. V. Eliseev, and A. Levermann (2014), Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084002.
31. Mueller, B., and S. I. Seneviratne (2012), Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 12398–12403.
32. O’Gorman, P. A. (2010), Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19176–19180.
33. Overland, J. E., J. A. Francis, E. Hanna, and M. Wang (2012), The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circula-tion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19804.
34. Palmer, T. (2014), Record‐breaking winters and global climate change, Science, 344, 803–804.
35. Pedlosky, J. (1979), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Springer, New York.
36. Petoukhov, V., S. Rahmstorf, S. Petri, and H. J. Schellnhuber (2013), Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes., Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 5336–5341.
37. Petrie, R. E., L. C. Shaffrey, and R. T. Sutton (2015), Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2070–2076.
38. Rahmstorf, S., and D. Coumou (2011), Increase of extreme events in a warming world, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA., 108, 17905–17909.
39. Runge, J., J. Heitzig, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths (2012), Quantifying causal coupling strength: A lag‐specific measure for multivariate time series related to transfer entropy, Phys. Rev. E, 86, 061121.
40. Runge, J., V. Petoukhov, and J. Kurths (2014), Quantifying the strength and delay of climatic interactions: The ambiguities of cross correlation and a novel measure based on graphical models, J. Climate, 27, 720–739.
41. Russo, S., A. Dosio, R. G. Graversen, J. Sillmann, H. Carrao, M. B. Dunbar, A. Singleton, P. Montagna, P. Barbosa, and J. V. Vogt (2014), Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 12, 500–12,512.
42. Schär, C., P. L. Vidale, D. Lüthi, C. Frei, C. Häberli, M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller (2004), The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336.
43. Schleussner, C. F., J. Runge, J. Lehmann, and A. Levermann (2014), The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi‐decadal global‐mean‐temperature variability, Earth Syst. Dyn., 5, 103–115.
44. Schneider, T., T. Bischoff, and H. Plotka (2014), Physics of changes in synoptic midlatitude temperature variability, J. Climate, 28 (6); doi: 10.1175/JCLI‐D‐14‐00632.1.
45. Schneidereit, A., S. Schubert, P. Vargin, F. Lunkeit, X. Zhu, D. H. W. Peters, and K. Fraedrich (2012), Large‐scale flow and the long‐lasting blocking high over Russia: Summer 2010, Monthly Weather Rev., 140, 2967–2981.
46. Schubert, S., H. Wang, and M. Suarez (2011), Warm season subseasonal variability and climate extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of stationary Rossby waves, J. Climate, 24, 4773–4792.
47. Schubert, S. D., H. Wang, R. D. Koster, M. J. Suarez, and P. Y. Groisman (2014), Northern Eurasian heat waves and droughts, J. Climate, 27, 3169–3207.
48. Screen, J. A., and I. Simmonds (2014), Amplified mid‐latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes, Nature Climate Change, 4, 704–709.
49. Screen, J. A., I. Simmonds, C. Deser, and R. Tomas (2013), The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss, J. Climate, 26, 1230–1248.
50. Shepherd, T. G. (2014), Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections, Nat. Geosci., 7, 703–708.
51. Tachibana, Y., T. Nakamura, H. Komiya, and M. Takahashi (2010), Abrupt evolution of the summer Northern Hemisphere annular mode and its association with blocking, J. Geophys. Res., 115, 13.
52. Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, G. Branstator, and A. S. Phillips (2014), Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warm-ing, Nature Climate Change, 4, 911–916.
53. Walsh, J. E. (2014), Intensified warming of the Arctic: Causes and impacts on middle latitudes, Glob. Planet. Change, 117, 52–63.
54. Wang, S. Y., L. E. Hipps, R. R. Gillies, X. Jiang, and A. L. Moller (2010), Circumglobal teleconnection and early summer rainfall in the US intermountain west, Theor. App. Climatol., 102, 245–252.
55. Wang, S. Y., R. E. Davies, and R. R. Gillies (2013), Identification of extreme precipitation threat across midlatitude regions based on short‐wave circulations, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 11059–11074.
56. Woollings, T., and M. Blackburn (2012), The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns, J. Climate, 25, 886–902.