The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

Scientific Reports

Volumn 5, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Lehmann, Jascha ^a,b   Coumou, Dim ^a  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF POTSDAM   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84949648112     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20452322     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/srep17491     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Wang, S.-Y., Hipps, L., Gillies, R. R. & Yoon, J.-H. Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013-2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3220-3226 (2014).
2. Wallace, J. M., Held, I. M., Thompson, D. W. J., Trenberth, K. E. & Walsh, J. E. Global Warming and Winter Weather. Science 343, 729-730 (2014).
3. Stephens, E. & Cloke, H. Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geogr. J. 180, 310-316 (2014).
4. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. A decade of weather extremes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2, 491-496 (2012).
5. Seneviratne, S. I. et al. in Manag. Risks Extrem. Events Disasters to Adv. Clim. Chang. Adapt. (Field, C. B. et al.) 109-230 (Cambridge University Press, 2012).
6. Trenberth, K. E. Recent Observed Interdecadal Climate Changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 71, 988-993 (1990).
7. Hurrell, J. W. Decadal trends in the north atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269, 676-679 (1995).
8. Thompson, D. W. & Wallace, J. M. Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science 293, 85-89 (2001).
9. Wanner, H. et al. North Atlantic oscillation-Concepts and studies. Surv. Geophys. 22, 321-382 (2001).
10. Marshall, J. et al. North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 1863-1898 (2001).
11. Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. & Shepherd, T. G. Attribution of climate extreme events. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 725-730 (2015).
12. Horton, D. E. et al. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends. Nature 522, 465-469 (2015).
13. Hoskins, B. & Woollings, T. Persistent Extratropical Regimes and Climate Extremes. Curr. Clim. Chang. Reports (2015), doi: 10.1007/s40641-015-0020-8.
14. Screen, J. A. & Simmonds, I. Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 704-709 (2014).
15. Coumou, D., Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S. & Schellnhuber, H. J. Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 1412797111-(2014). doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412797111.
16. Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S. & Schellnhuber, H. J. Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 110, 5336-41 (2013).
17. Schubert, S., Wang, H. & Suarez, M. Warm season subseasonal variability and climate extremes in the northern hemisphere: The role of stationary Rossby waves. J. Clim. 24, 4773-4792 (2011).
18. Dole, R. et al. Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, 1-5 (2011).
19. Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I. & Roeckner, E. Storm tracks and climate change. J. Clim. 19, 3518-3543 (2006).
20. Harvey, B. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Woollings, T. J., Zappa, G. & Hodges, K. I. How large are projected 21st century storm track changes? Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, 1-5 (2012).
21. Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Eliseev, A. V & Levermann, A. Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 084002 (2014).
22. Chang, E. K. M., Lee, S. & Swanson, K. L. Storm track dynamics. J. Clim. 15, 2163-2183 (2002).
23. Pinto, J. G. et al. Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Clim. Dyn. 29, 195-210 (2007).
24. Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Woollings, T. & Hodges, K. Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034037 (2013).
25. Hoskins, B. & Valdes, P. On the existence of storm-tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 47, 1854-1864 (1990).
26. Branstator, G. Organization of Storm Track Anomalies by Recurring Low-Frequency Circulation Anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 207-226 (1995).
27. Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I. & Dacre, H. F. How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones? Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L24809 (2012).
28. Raible, C. C., Yoshimori, M., Stocker, T. F. & Casty, C. Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions. Clim. Dyn. 28, 409-423 (2007).
29. Pfahl, S. & Wernli, H. Quantifying the Relevance of Cyclones for Precipitation Extremes. J. Clim. 25, 6770-6780 (2012).
30. Trenberth, K. E. & Shea, D. J. Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, 1-4 (2005).
31. Coumou, D., Lehmann, J. & Beckmann, J. The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Science 348, 324-327 (2015).
32. Luterbacher, J. et al. Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: Results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models. Clim. Change 101, 201-234 (2010).
33. Bladé, I., Liebmann, B., Fortuny, D. & van Oldenborgh, G. J. Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO in Europe: Implications for projected drying in the Mediterranean region. Clim. Dyn. 39, 709-727 (2012).
34. Nakamura, H. Year-to-Year and interdecadal variability in the activity of intraseasonal fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 55, 19-32 (1996).
35. Overland, J. E., Francis, J. a., Hanna, E. & Wang, M. The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, 1-6 (2012).
36. Folland, C. K. et al. The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future. J. Clim. 22, 1082-1103 (2009).
37. Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Sansom, P. G. & Stephenson, D. B. A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models. J. Clim. 26, 5846-5862 (2013).
38. Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C. & Pinto, J. G. Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 96, 117-131 (2009).
39. Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553-597 (2011).
40. Blackmon, M. A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 33, 1607-1623 (1976).
41. Koenker, R. & D'Orey, V. Computing Regression Quantiles. Appl. Stat. 36, 383-393 (1987).
42. Adler, R. F. et al. The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present). J. Hydrometeorol 4, 1147-1167 (2003).
43. Schär, C. et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332-336 (2004).
44. Schär, C., Lüthi, D., Beyerle, U. & Heise, E. The soil-precipitation feedback: A process study with a regional climate model. J. Clim. 12, 722-741 (1999).
45. Mueller, B. & Seneviratne, S. I. Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 12398-12403 (2012).
46. Screen, J. A. Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to high-latitudes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 577-582 (2014).
47. Gulev, S. & Zolina, O. Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Clim. Dyn 17, 795-809 (2001).
48. Diffenbaugh, N. S. & Scherer, M. Likelihood of July 2012 U.S. temperatures in pre-industrial and current forcing regimes. in Explain. Extrem. Events 2012 from a Clim. Perspect. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 94(9) S6-S9 (2013).
49. Vavrus, S., Walsh, J. E., Chapman, W. L. & Portis, D. The behavior of extreme cold air outbreaks under greenhouse warming. Int. J. Climatol. 26, 1133-1147 (2006).
50. Cohen, J. L., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M. a, Alexeev, V. A. & Cherry, J. E. Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 014007 (2012).
51. Murakami, M. Large-Scale Aspects of Deep Convective Activity over the GATE Area. Mon. Weather Rev. 107, 994-1013 (1979).
52. Koenker, R. in Asymptot. Stat. 349-359 (1994). doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-57984-4-29.