Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on warm and cold temperature anomalies in Europe: Analysis over the 20th century

Global and Planetary Change

Volumn 62, Issue 1-2, 2008, Pages 147-163

  Kyselý, Jan ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (Czech Republic)

Author keywords

atmospheric circulation; cold wave; Europe; heat wave; Hess Brezowsky catalogue; persistence; temperature anomalies

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC WAVE; GLOBAL WARMING; PERSISTENCE; RESIDENCE TIME; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EURASIA; EUROPE;

EID: 42649093781     PISSN: 09218181     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.01.003     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Alexander L.V. Zhang X. Peterson T.C. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation Journal of Geophysical Research 111 2006 Art. No. D05109
2. Bárdossy A. Caspary H.J. Detection of climate change in Europe by analyzing European atmospheric circulation patterns from 1881 to 1989 Theoretical and Applied Climatology 42 1990 155 167
3. Bartholy J. Pongrácz R. Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Carpathian Basin from 1946 to 2001 Global and Planetary Change 57 2007 83 95
4. Beck C. Jacobeit J. Jones P.D. Frequency and within-type variations of large-scale circulation types and their effects on low-frequency climate variability in Central Europe since 1780 International Journal of Climatology 27 2007 473 491
5. Beersma J.J. Buishand T.A. Multi-site simulation of daily precipitation and temperature conditional on the atmospheric circulation Climate Research 25 2003 121 133
6. Begert M. Schlegel T. Kirchhofer W. Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000 International Journal of Climatology 25 2005 65 80
7. Bengtsson L. Hodges K.I. Roeckner E. Storm tracks and climate change Journal of Climate 19 2006 3518 3543
8. Beniston M. The 2003 heat wave in Europe: a shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations Geophysical Research Letters 31 2004 L02202
9. Beniston M. Diaz H.F. The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland Global and Planetary Change 44 2004 73 81
10. Beniston M. Goyette S. Changes in variability and persistence of climate in Switzerland: exploring 20th century observations and 21st century simulations Global and Planetary Change 57 2007 1 15
11. Black E. Blackburn M. Harison G. Hoskins B. Methven J. Factors contributing to the summer 2003 heatwave Weather 59 2004 217 223
12. Buishand T.A. Brandsma T. Comparison of circulation classification schemes for predicting temperature and precipitation in the Netherlands International Journal of Climatology 17 1997 875 889
13. Camuffo D. Jones P. Improved understanding of past climatic variability from early daily European instrumental sources 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht 392 pp.
14. Cawley G.C. Mean daily surface level pressure anomaly charts by Grosswetterlagen Index 2002 University of East Anglia Norwich, UK [available at http://theoval.sys.uea.ac.uk/~gcc/projects/accord/experiments/experiment1a/report.html ]
15. Ciais P. Reichstein M. Viovy N. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003 Nature 437 2005 529 533
16. Davison A.C. Hinkley D.V. Bootstrap Methods and their Application 1997 Cambridge University Press 592 pp
17. Dear K. Ranmuthugala G. Kjellstrom T. Skinner C. Hanigan I. Effects of temperature and ozone on daily mortality during the August 2003 heat wave in France Archives of Environmental and Occupational Health 60 2005 205 212
18. De Bono A. Giuliani G. Kluser S. Peduzzi P. Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe Environment Alert Bulletin 2 2004 1 4
19. Della-Marta P.M. Wanner H. A method of homogenizing the extremes and mean of daily temperature measurements Journal of Climate 19 2006 4179 4197
20. Della-Marta P.M. Luterbacher J. von Weissenfluh H. Xoplaki E. Brunet M. Wanner H. Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability Climate Dynamics 29 2007 251 275
21. Della-Marta P.M. Haylock M.R. Luterbacher J. Wanner H. Doubled length of Western European summer heat waves since 1880 Journal of Geophysical Research 112 2007 10.1029/2007JD008510
22. Domonkos P. Kyselý J. Piotrowicz K. Petrovic P. Likso T. Variability of extreme temperature events in south-central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large scale circulation International Journal of Climatology 23 2003 987 1010
23. Filleul L. Cassadou S. Medina S. Fabres P. Lefranc A. Eilstein D. Le Tertre A. Pascal L. Chardon B. Blanchard M. Declercq C. Jusot J.F. Prouvost H. Ledrans M. The relation between temperature, ozone, and mortality in nine French cities during the heat wave of 2003 Environmental Health Perspectives 114 2006 1344 1347
24. Fischer-Bruns I. von Storch H. Gonzales-Rouco J.F. Zorita E. Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales Climate Dynamics 25 2005 461 476
25. Fowler H.J. Kilsby C.G. O'Connell P.E. Burton A. A weather-type conditioned multi-site stochastic rainfall model for the generation of scenarios of climatic variability and change Journal of Hydrology 308 2005 50 66
26. Geng Q. Sugi M. Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols — study with a high-resolution AGCM Journal of Climate 16 2003 2262 2274
27. Gerstengarbe F.W. Werner P.C. Rüge U. Katalog der Grosswetterlagen Europas nach Paul Hess und Helmuth Brezowsky 1881–1998 1999 Deutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach a. Main [available at http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~uwerner/gwl/welcome.htm ]
28. Grize, L., Huss, A., Thommen, O., Schindler, C., Braun-Fabrlander, C., 2005. Heat wave 2003 and mortality in Switzerland. Swiss Medical Weekly 135, 200–205.
29. Gulev S.K. Zolina O. Grigoriev S. Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data Climate Dynamics 17 2001 795 809
30. Hanssen-Bauer I. Achberger C. Benestad R.E. Chen D. Forland E.J. Statistical downscaling of climate scenarios over Scandinavia Climate Research 29 2005 255 268
31. Hess P. Brezowsky H. Katalog der Grosswetterlagen Europas Berichte des Deutschen Wetterdienstes in der US-Zone 33 1952 39 pp
32. Huth R. Sensitivity of local daily temperature change estimates to the selection of downscaling models and predictors Journal of Climate 17 2004 640 652
33. IPCC Climate change 2007: the physical science basis Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007 Cambridge University Press Cambridge [available on-line at http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html ]
34. Keevallik S. Post P. Tuulik J. European circulation patterns and meteorological situation in Estonia Theoretical and Applied Climatology 63 1999 117 127
35. Klein Tank A.M.G. Koennen G.P. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99 Journal of Climate 16 2003 3665 3680
36. Klein Tank A.M.G. Wijngaard J.B. Koennen G.P. Daily dataset of 20th century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment International Journal of Climatology 22 2002 1441 1453
37. Knippertz P. Ulbrich U. Speth P. Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment Climate Research 15 2000 109 122
38. Kosatsky T. The 2003 European heat waves Euro Surveillance 10 2005 148 149
39. Kostopoulou E. Jones P.D. Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89 2005 69 85
40. Künsch H.R. The jackknife and the bootstrap for general stationary observations Annals of Statistics 17 1989 1217 1241
41. Kyselý J. Temporal fluctuations in heat waves at Prague–Klementinum, the Czech Republic, from 1901–1997, and their relationships to atmospheric circulation International Journal of Climatology 22 2002 33 50
42. Kyselý J. Implications of enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation for the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes International Journal of Climatology 27 2007 689 695
43. Kyselý J. Domonkos P. Recent increase in persistence of atmospheric circulation over Europe: comparison with long-term variations since 1881 International Journal of Climatology 26 2006 461 483
44. Kyselý J. Huth R. Changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe detected by objective and subjective methods Theoretical and Applied Climatology 85 2006 19 36
45. Laurent C. Parey S. Estimation of 100-year-return-period temperatures in France in a non-stationary climate: results from observations and IPCC scenarios Global and Planetary Change 57 2007 177 188
46. Leckebusch G.C. Koffi B. Ulbrich U. Pinto J.G. Spangehl T. Zacharias S. Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales Climate Research 31 2006 59 74
47. Luterbacher J. Dietrich D. Xoplaki E. Grosjean M. Wanner H. European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500 Science 303 2004 1499 1503
48. McCabe G.J. Clark M.P. Serreze M.C. Trends in northern hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity Journal of Climate 14 2001 2763 2768
49. Meehl G.A. Tebaldi C. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century Science 305 2004 994 997
50. Moberg A. Jones P.D. Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901–99 International Journal of Climatology 25 2005 1149 1171
51. Moberg A. Jones P.D. Lister D. Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901–2000 Journal of Geophysical Research 111 2006 Art. No. D22106
52. Paciorek C.J. Risbey J.S. Ventura V. Rosen R.D. Multiple indices of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity, winters 1949–99 Journal of Climate 15 2002 1573 1590
53. Pryor S.C. Barthelmie R.J. Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic International Journal of Climatology 23 2003 271 289
54. Rebetez M. Mayer H. Dupont O. Schindler D. Gartner K. Kropp J.P. Menzel A. Heat and drought 2003 in Europe: a climate synthesis Annals of Forest Science 63 2006 569 577
55. Schär C. Vidale P.L. Lüthi D. Frei C. Häberli C. Liniger M.A. Appenzeller C. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves Nature 427 2004 332 336
56. 2-induced warm climate simulations: frequency, intensity and tracks Climate Dynamics 14 1998 827 837
57. Sepp M. Post P. Jaagus J. Long-term changes in the frequency of cyclones and their trajectories in Central and Northern Europe Nordic Hydrology 36 2005 297 309
58. Simón F. Lopez-Abente G. Ballester E. Martínez F. Mortality in Spain during the heat waves of summer 2003 Euro Surveillance 10 2005 156 161
59. Trigo R.M. Garcia-Herrera R. Diaz J. Trigo I.F. Valente M.A. How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France? Geophysical Research Letters 32 2005 Art. No. L10701
60. Tu M. de Laat P.J.M. Hall M.J. de Wit M.J.M. Precipitation variability in the Meuse basin in relation to atmospheric circulation Water Science and Technology 51 2005 5 14
61. Ustrnul Z. Spatial differentiation of air temperature in Poland using circulation types and GIS International Journal of Climatology 26 2006 1529 1546
62. Vandentorren S. Suzan F. Medina S. Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave American Journal of Public Health 94 2004 1518 1520
63. Wang X.L. Swail V.R. Zwiers F.W. Climatology and changes of extratropical storm tracks and cyclone activity: comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for 1958–2001 Journal of Climate 19 2006 3145 3166
64. Werner P.C. Gerstengarbe F.W. Fraedrich K. Oesterle H. Recent climate change in the North Atlantic/European sector International Journal of Climatology 20 2000 463 471
65. Wijngaard J.B. Klein Tank A.M.G. Konnen G.P. Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series International Journal of Climatology 23 2003 679 692
66. Wilks D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction 1995 Academic Press 467 pp
67. Yan Z. Jones P.D. Davies T.D. Moberg A. Bergström H. Camuffo D. Cocheo C. Maugeri M. Demarée G.R. Verhoeve T. Thoen E. Barriendos M. Rodríguez R. Martín-Vide J. Yang C. Trends of extreme temperatures in Europe and China based on daily observations Climatic Change 53 2002 355 392
68. Yiou P. Nogaj M. Extreme climatic events and weather regimes over the North Atlantic: when and where? Geophysical Research Letters 31 2004 L07202
69. Zaitchik B.F. Macalady A.K. Bonneau L.R. Smith R.B. Europe's 2003 heat wave: a satellite view of impacts and land–atmosphere feedbacks International Journal of Climatology 26 2006 743 769
70. Zhang X.D. Walsh J.E. Zhang J. Bhatt U.S. Ikeda M. Climatology and interannual variability of arctic cyclone activity: 1948–2002 Journal of Climate 17 2004 2300 2317