메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 30, Issue 23, 2017, Pages 9493-9510

Improved sea ice forecasting through spatiotemporal bias correction

Author keywords

Arctic; Bias; Model errors; Sea ice; Statistical techniques

Indexed keywords

ERRORS; FORECASTING; MEAN SQUARE ERROR; SEA ICE;

EID: 85034074019     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0185.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (17)

References (45)
  • 1
    • 85010791729 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles
    • in press
    • Arisido, M. W., C. Gaetan, D. Zanchettin, and A. Rubino, 2017: A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles. Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1383-2, in press
    • (2017) Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess
    • Arisido, M.W.1    Gaetan, C.2    Zanchettin, D.3    Rubino, A.4
  • 2
    • 79251591955 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., K. C. Armour, C. M. Bitz, and E. DeWeaver, 2011a: Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations. J. Climate, 24, 231-250, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1
    • (2011) J. Climate , vol.24 , pp. 231-250
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1    Armour, K.C.2    Bitz, C.M.3    DeWeaver, E.4
  • 3
    • 80053251326 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., C. M. Bitz, and M. M. Holland, 2011b: Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18503, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.38
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1    Bitz, C.M.2    Holland, M.M.3
  • 4
    • 84946926587 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal sea ice outlook
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., R. I. Cullather, W. Wang, J. Zhang, and C. M. Bitz, 2015: Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal sea ice outlook. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8042-8048, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065860
    • (2015) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.42 , pp. 8042-8048
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1    Cullather, R.I.2    Wang, W.3    Zhang, J.4    Bitz, C.M.5
  • 5
    • 84991098121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., and Coauthors, 2017: Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales. Climate Dyn., 49, 1399-1410, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9
    • (2017) Climate Dyn , vol.49 , pp. 1399-1410
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1
  • 7
    • 0036795878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: The initial value problem
    • Collins, M., 2002: Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: The initial value problem. Climate Dyn., 19, 671-692, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0254-8
    • (2002) Climate Dyn , vol.19 , pp. 671-692
    • Collins, M.1
  • 8
    • 0034022418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bootstrap sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS, version 2
    • accessed 1 July 2016
    • Comiso, J. C., 2000: Bootstrap sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS, version 2. National Snow and Ice Data Center, accessed 1 July 2016, http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0079_bootstrap_seaice.gd.html
    • (2000) National Snow and Ice Data Center
    • Comiso, J.C.1
  • 9
    • 41549164850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover
    • Comiso, J. C., C. L. Parkinson, R. Gersten, and L. Stock, 2008: Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01703, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031972
    • (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.35
    • Comiso, J.C.1    Parkinson, C.L.2    Gersten, R.3    Stock, L.4
  • 10
    • 84902106533 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: Initialization month dependence
    • Day, J., S. Tietsche, and E. Hawkins, 2014: Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: Initialization month dependence. J. Climate, 27, 4371-4390, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1
    • (2014) J. Climate , vol.27 , pp. 4371-4390
    • Day, J.1    Tietsche, S.2    Hawkins, E.3
  • 12
    • 0001489753 scopus 로고
    • Algorithms for the reduction of the number of points required to represent a digitized line or its caricature
    • Douglas, D. H., and T. K. Peucker, 1973: Algorithms for the reduction of the number of points required to represent a digitized line or its caricature. Cartographica, 10, 112-122, doi:https://doi.org/10.3138/FM57-6770-U75U-7727
    • (1973) Cartographica , vol.10 , pp. 112-122
    • Douglas, D.H.1    Peucker, T.K.2
  • 14
    • 84904784863 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions
    • Fuckar, N. S., D. Volpi, V. Guemas, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2014: A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5200-5207, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060815
    • (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.41 , pp. 5200-5207
    • Fuckar, N.S.1    Volpi, D.2    Guemas, V.3    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.4
  • 15
    • 84867101035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast
    • García-Serrano, J., and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2012: On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast. Climate Dyn., 39, 2025-2040, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1413-1
    • (2012) Climate Dyn , vol.39 , pp. 2025-2040
    • García-Serrano, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 16
    • 84871928605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments
    • Goddard, L., and Coauthors, 2013: A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dyn., 40, 245-272, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2
    • (2013) Climate Dyn , vol.40 , pp. 245-272
    • Goddard, L.1
  • 18
    • 84904843709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales
    • Guemas, V., and Coauthors, 2016: A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 546-561, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2401
    • (2016) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.142 , pp. 546-561
    • Guemas, V.1
  • 20
    • 79851500076 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3
    • Holland, M. M., D. A. Bailey, and S. Vavrus, 2011: Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3. Climate Dyn., 36, 1239-1253, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0792-4
    • (2011) Climate Dyn , vol.36 , pp. 1239-1253
    • Holland, M.M.1    Bailey, D.A.2    Vavrus, S.3
  • 22
    • 84906713638 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vessels, risks, and rules: Planning for safe shipping in Bering Strait
    • Huntington, H. P., and Coauthors, 2015: Vessels, risks, and rules: Planning for safe shipping in Bering Strait. Mar. Policy, 51, 119-127, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2014.07.027
    • (2015) Mar. Policy , vol.51 , pp. 119-127
    • Huntington, H.P.1
  • 24
    • 84867546631 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate
    • Kharin, V. V., G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W. S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052647
    • (2012) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.39
    • Kharin, V.V.1    Boer, G.J.2    Merryfield, W.J.3    Scinocca, J.F.4    Lee, W.S.5
  • 25
    • 84971287137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Skill improvement of dynamical seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts
    • Krikken, F., M. Schmeits, W. Vlot, V. Guemas, and W. Hazeleger, 2016: Skill improvement of dynamical seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 5124-5132, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068462
    • (2016) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.43 , pp. 5124-5132
    • Krikken, F.1    Schmeits, M.2    Vlot, W.3    Guemas, V.4    Hazeleger, W.5
  • 26
    • 85016163604 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bias correcting climate change simulations-a critical review
    • Maraun, D., 2016: Bias correcting climate change simulations-a critical review. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 2, 211-220, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x
    • (2016) Curr. Climate Change Rep , vol.2 , pp. 211-220
    • Maraun, D.1
  • 27
    • 84893858451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches
    • Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2014: Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 243-267, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
    • (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.95 , pp. 243-267
    • Meehl, G.A.1
  • 28
    • 84892453006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Heteroscedastic extended logistic regression for postprocessing of ensemble guidance
    • Messner, J. W., G. J. Mayr, A. Zeileis, and D. S. Wilks, 2014: Heteroscedastic extended logistic regression for postprocessing of ensemble guidance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 448-456, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00271.1
    • (2014) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.142 , pp. 448-456
    • Messner, J.W.1    Mayr, G.J.2    Zeileis, A.3    Wilks, D.S.4
  • 29
    • 84904777918 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent
    • Msadek, R., G. A. Vecchi, M. Winton, and R. G. Gudgel, 2014: Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5208-5215, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799
    • (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.41 , pp. 5208-5215
    • Msadek, R.1    Vecchi, G.A.2    Winton, M.3    Gudgel, R.G.4
  • 30
    • 85034053126 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2017: Earth system grid at NCAR. NCAR, https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/home.html
    • (2017) Earth system grid at NCAR. NCAR
  • 31
    • 85034028483 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Region mask for the Northern Hemisphere
    • accessed 22 June 2017
    • National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2017: Region mask for the Northern Hemisphere. National Snow and Ice Data Center, accessed 22 June 2017, http://nsidc.org/data/polar-stereo/tools_masks.html
    • (2017) National Snow and Ice Data Center
    • Snow, N.1    Center, I.D.2
  • 32
    • 51749103540 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979-2006
    • Parkinson, C. L., and D. J. Cavalieri, 2008: Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979-2006. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C07003, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004558
    • (2008) J. Geophys. Res , vol.113
    • Parkinson, C.L.1    Cavalieri, D.J.2
  • 33
    • 85034098440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SIPN
    • Sea Ice Prediction Network, 2014: Sea Ice Outlook 2014: August Report. SIPN, https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2014/august
    • (2014) Sea Ice Outlook 2014: August Report
  • 34
    • 84875526163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury
    • Smith, L. C., and S. R. Stephenson, 2013: New trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, E1191-E1195, doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214212110
    • (2013) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.110 , pp. E1191-E1195
    • Smith, L.C.1    Stephenson, S.R.2
  • 35
    • 84903275653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Marine accessibility along Russia's northern sea route
    • Stephenson, S. R., L. W. Brigham, and L. C. Smith, 2014: Marine accessibility along Russia's northern sea route. Polar Geogr., 37, 111-133, doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2013.845859
    • (2014) Polar Geogr , vol.37 , pp. 111-133
    • Stephenson, S.R.1    Brigham, L.W.2    Smith, L.C.3
  • 37
    • 84856214559 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Arctic's rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis
    • Stroeve, J. C., M. C. Serreze, M. M. Holland, J. E. Kay, J. Malanik, and A. P. Barrett, 2012b: The Arctic's rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis. Climatic Change, 110, 1005-1027, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0101-1
    • (2012) Climatic Change , vol.110 , pp. 1005-1027
    • Stroeve, J.C.1    Serreze, M.C.2    Holland, M.M.3    Kay, J.E.4    Malanik, J.5    Barrett, A.P.6
  • 38
    • 84897312497 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH sea ice outlook 2008-2013
    • Stroeve, J. C., L. C. Hamilton, C. M. Bitz, and E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, 2014: Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH sea ice outlook 2008-2013. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2411-2418, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059388
    • (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.41 , pp. 2411-2418
    • Stroeve, J.C.1    Hamilton, L.C.2    Bitz, C.M.3    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.4
  • 39
    • 84869487919 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric influence on Arctic marginal ice zone position and width in the Atlantic sector, February-April 1979-2010
    • Strong, C., 2012: Atmospheric influence on Arctic marginal ice zone position and width in the Atlantic sector, February-April 1979-2010. Climate Dyn., 39, 3091-3102, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1356-6
    • (2012) Climate Dyn , vol.39 , pp. 3091-3102
    • Strong, C.1
  • 40
    • 84886726212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies
    • Tietsche, S., D. Notz, J. H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke, 2013: Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies. Climate Dyn., 41, 2511-2526, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1698-8
    • (2013) Climate Dyn , vol.41 , pp. 2511-2526
    • Tietsche, S.1    Notz, D.2    Jungclaus, J.H.3    Marotzke, J.4
  • 41
    • 84893858975 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models
    • Tietsche, S., and Coauthors, 2014: Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1035-1043, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058755
    • (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.41 , pp. 1035-1043
    • Tietsche, S.1
  • 42
    • 84859008719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble
    • van Oldenborgh, G. J., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters, and W. Hazeleger, 2012: Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn., 38, 1263-1280, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4
    • (2012) Climate Dyn , vol.38 , pp. 1263-1280
    • van Oldenborgh, G.J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Wouters, B.3    Hazeleger, W.4
  • 43
    • 84906333389 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity
    • Vecchi, G., and Coauthors, 2014: On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 27, 7994-8016, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1
    • (2014) J. Climate , vol.27 , pp. 7994-8016
    • Vecchi, G.1
  • 45
    • 70349414695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extending logistic regression to provide full-probability-distribution MOS forecasts
    • Wilks, D., 2009: Extending logistic regression to provide full-probability-distribution MOS forecasts. Meteor. Appl., 16, 361-368, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/met.134
    • (2009) Meteor. Appl , vol.16 , pp. 361-368
    • Wilks, D.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.