메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 43, Issue 10, 2016, Pages 5124-5132

Skill improvement of dynamical seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts

Author keywords

Arctic sea ice; bias correction; ensemble calibration; seasonal forecasting

Indexed keywords

CALIBRATION; FORECASTING; SEA ICE;

EID: 84971287137     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068462     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (22)

References (36)
  • 1
    • 84880703032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4
    • Balmaseda, M. A., K. Mogensen, and A. T. Weaver (2013), Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1132–1161, doi:10.1002/qj.2063.
    • (2013) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.139 , pp. 1132-1161
    • Balmaseda, M.A.1    Mogensen, K.2    Weaver, A.T.3
  • 2
    • 25444517071 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maintenance of the sea-ice edge
    • Bitz, C. M., M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, and R. E. Moritz (2005), Maintenance of the sea-ice edge, J. Clim., 18, 2903–2921, doi:10.1175/JCLI3428.1.
    • (2005) J. Clim. , vol.18 , pp. 2903-2921
    • Bitz, C.M.1    Holland, M.M.2    Hunke, E.C.3    Moritz, R.E.4
  • 3
    • 79251591955 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., K. C. Armour, C. M. Bitz, and E. DeWeaver (2010), Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations, J. Clim., 24, 231–250, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1.
    • (2010) J. Clim. , vol.24 , pp. 231-250
    • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1    Armour, K.C.2    Bitz, C.M.3    DeWeaver, E.4
  • 5
    • 84859951862 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic sea ice potential predictability: A diagnostic approach with a coupled GCM
    • Chevallier, M., and D. Salas-Mélia (2012), The role of sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic sea ice potential predictability: A diagnostic approach with a coupled GCM, J. Clim., 25(8), 3025–3038, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00209.1.
    • (2012) J. Clim. , vol.25 , Issue.8 , pp. 3025-3038
    • Chevallier, M.1    Salas-Mélia, D.2
  • 6
    • 84902106533 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: Initialization month dependence
    • Day, J. J., S. Tietsche, and E. Hawkins (2014), Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: Initialization month dependence, J. Clim., 27, 4371–4390, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1.
    • (2014) J. Clim. , vol.27 , pp. 4371-4390
    • Day, J.J.1    Tietsche, S.2    Hawkins, E.3
  • 7
    • 79955446270 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
    • Dee, D. P., et al. (2011), The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
    • (2011) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.137 , pp. 553-597
    • Dee, D.P.1
  • 8
    • 0030698049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics
    • Fichefet, T., and M. A. M. Maqueda (1997), Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 12,609–12,646, doi:10.1029/97JC00480.
    • (1997) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.102 , pp. 12,609-12,646
    • Fichefet, T.1    Maqueda, M.A.M.2
  • 9
    • 84904784863 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions
    • Fučkar, N. S., D. Volpi, V. Guemas, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2014), A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5200–5207, doi:10.1002/2014GL060815.
    • (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.41 , pp. 5200-5207
    • Fučkar, N.S.1    Volpi, D.2    Guemas, V.3    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.4
  • 10
    • 79957820537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Warm winds from the Pacific caused extensive Arctic sea-ice melt in summer 2007
    • Graversen, R. G., T. Mauritsen, S. Drijfhout, M. Tjernström, and S. Mårtensson (2010), Warm winds from the Pacific caused extensive Arctic sea-ice melt in summer 2007, Clim. Dyn., 36, 2103–2112, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0809-z.
    • (2010) Clim. Dyn. , vol.36 , pp. 2103-2112
    • Graversen, R.G.1    Mauritsen, T.2    Drijfhout, S.3    Tjernström, M.4    Mårtensson, S.5
  • 11
    • 84904843709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales
    • Guemas, V., et al. (2016), A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 546–561, doi:10.1002/qj.2401.
    • (2016) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.142 , pp. 546-561
    • Guemas, V.1
  • 12
    • 84895932923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions
    • Guemas, V., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, K. Mogensen, S. Keeley, and Y. Tang (2014), Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions, Clim. Dyn., 43, 2813–2829, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2095-7.
    • (2014) Clim. Dyn. , vol.43 , pp. 2813-2829
    • Guemas, V.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Mogensen, K.3    Keeley, S.4    Tang, Y.5
  • 14
    • 78649255798 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EC-Earth: A seamless earth-system prediction approach in action
    • Hazeleger, W., et al. (2010), EC-Earth: A seamless earth-system prediction approach in action, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1357–1363, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1.
    • (2010) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.91 , pp. 1357-1363
    • Hazeleger, W.1
  • 15
    • 84867016346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EC-Earth V2.2: Description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model
    • Hazeleger, W., et al. (2012), EC-Earth V2.2: Description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model, Clim. Dyn., 39, 2611–2629, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1228-5.
    • (2012) Clim. Dyn. , vol.39 , pp. 2611-2629
    • Hazeleger, W.1
  • 16
    • 84880855692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent
    • Kapsch, M. L., R. G. Graversen, and M. Tjernström (2013), Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent, Nat. Clim. Change, 3(8), 744–748, doi:10.1038/nclimate1884.
    • (2013) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.3 , Issue.8 , pp. 744-748
    • Kapsch, M.L.1    Graversen, R.G.2    Tjernström, M.3
  • 17
    • 48249096388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The contribution of cloud and radiation anomalies to the 2007 Arctic sea ice extent minimum
    • L08503
    • Kay, J. E., T. L'Ecuyer, A. Gettelman, G. Stephens, and C. O'Dell (2008), The contribution of cloud and radiation anomalies to the 2007 Arctic sea ice extent minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08503, doi:10.1029/2008GL033451.
    • (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.35
    • Kay, J.E.1    L'Ecuyer, T.2    Gettelman, A.3    Stephens, G.4    O'Dell, C.5
  • 19
    • 84942919585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Arctic energy budget in relation to sea ice variability on monthly-to-annual time scales
    • Krikken, F., and W. Hazeleger (2015), Arctic energy budget in relation to sea ice variability on monthly-to-annual time scales, J. Clim., 28, 6335–6350, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0002.1.
    • (2015) J. Clim. , vol.28 , pp. 6335-6350
    • Krikken, F.1    Hazeleger, W.2
  • 20
    • 80052796274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic surface air temperature and sea ice variability
    • Mahajan, S., R. Zhang, and T. L. Delworth (2011), Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic surface air temperature and sea ice variability, J. Clim., 24, 6573–6581, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4002.1.
    • (2011) J. Clim. , vol.24 , pp. 6573-6581
    • Mahajan, S.1    Zhang, R.2    Delworth, T.L.3
  • 21
    • 84893858451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches
    • Meehl, G. A., et al. (2013), Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 243–267, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1.
    • (2013) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.95 , pp. 243-267
    • Meehl, G.A.1
  • 22
    • 84892453006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Heteroscedastic extended logistic regression for postprocessing of ensemble guidance
    • Messner, J. W., G. J. Mayr, A. Zeileis, and D. S. Wilks (2014), Heteroscedastic extended logistic regression for postprocessing of ensemble guidance, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 448–456, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00271.1.
    • (2014) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.142 , pp. 448-456
    • Messner, J.W.1    Mayr, G.J.2    Zeileis, A.3    Wilks, D.S.4
  • 23
    • 84859008719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble
    • Oldenborgh, G. J., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters, and W. Hazeleger (2012), Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble, Clim. Dyn., 38, 1263–1280, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4.
    • (2012) Clim. Dyn. , vol.38 , pp. 1263-1280
    • Oldenborgh, G.J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Wouters, B.3    Hazeleger, W.4
  • 24
    • 20444497873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
    • Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski (2005), Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 1155–1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1.
    • (2005) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1155-1174
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Gneiting, T.2    Balabdaoui, F.3    Polakowski, M.4
  • 25
    • 0037262706 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles
    • Roulston, M. S., and L. A. Smith (2003), Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles, Tellus, 55A, 16–30.
    • (2003) Tellus , vol.55 , pp. 16-30
    • Roulston, M.S.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 26
    • 78650192426 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison between raw ensemble output, (Modified) Bayesian model averaging, and extended logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts
    • Schmeits, M. J., and K. J. Kok (2010), A comparison between raw ensemble output, (Modified) Bayesian model averaging, and extended logistic regression using ECMWF ensemble precipitation reforecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 4199–4211, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3285.1.
    • (2010) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 4199-4211
    • Schmeits, M.J.1    Kok, K.J.2
  • 27
    • 84930988928 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting
    • Serreze, M. C., and J. Stroeve (2015), Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373, 20,140,159, doi:10.1038/nclimate2203.
    • (2015) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.373 , pp. 20,140,159
    • Serreze, M.C.1    Stroeve, J.2
  • 28
    • 84899509337 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction
    • Schröder, D., D. L. Feltham, D. Flocco, and M. Tsamados (2014), September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction, Nat. Publ. Group, 4, 353–357, doi:10.1038/nclimate2203.
    • (2014) Nat. Publ. Group , vol.4 , pp. 353-357
    • Schröder, D.1    Feltham, D.L.2    Flocco, D.3    Tsamados, M.4
  • 30
    • 34547903564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
    • Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy (2007), Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model, Science, 317, 796–799, doi:10.1126/science.1139540.
    • (2007) Science , vol.317 , pp. 796-799
    • Smith, D.M.1    Cusack, S.2    Colman, A.W.3    Folland, C.K.4    Harris, G.R.5    Murphy, J.M.6
  • 34
    • 84877971084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice extent from a coupled dynamical forecast system
    • Wang, W., M. Chen, and A. Kumar (2013), Seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice extent from a coupled dynamical forecast system, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1375–1394, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00057.1.
    • (2013) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.141 , pp. 1375-1394
    • Wang, W.1    Chen, M.2    Kumar, A.3
  • 35
    • 70349414695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extending logistic regression to provide full-probability-distribution MOS forecasts
    • Wilks, D. S. (2009), Extending logistic regression to provide full-probability-distribution MOS forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 16, 361–368, doi:10.1002/met.134.
    • (2009) Meteorol. Appl. , vol.16 , pp. 361-368
    • Wilks, D.S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.