메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 44, Issue 19, 2017, Pages 9996-10,005

Long-Lead Prediction of the 2015 Fire and Haze Episode in Indonesia

Author keywords

biomass burning, fire; El Ni o; forecasting; haze; Indonesia

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; DROUGHT; FIRES; NICKEL; OCEANOGRAPHY; SURFACE WATERS;

EID: 85032454771     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073660     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (20)

References (50)
  • 1
    • 0041520964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coral reef death during the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole linked to Indonesian wildfires
    • #x0026;
    • Abram, N. J., Gagan, M. K., McCulloch, M. T., Chappell, J., & Hantoro, W. S. (2003). Coral reef death during the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole linked to Indonesian wildfires. Science, 301(5,635), 952–955. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1083841
    • (2003) Science , vol.301 , Issue.5 , pp. 952-955
    • Abram, N.J.1    Gagan, M.K.2    McCulloch, M.T.3    Chappell, J.4    Hantoro, W.S.5
  • 2
    • 84884700195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: A diagnostic comparison
    • #x0026;
    • Barnston, A. G., & Tippett, M. K. (2013). Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: A diagnostic comparison. Climate Dynamics, 41(5–6), 1615–1633. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1845-2
    • (2013) Climate Dynamics , vol.41 , Issue.5-6 , pp. 1615-1633
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Tippett, M.K.2
  • 7
    • 84964685808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How much global burned area can be forecast on seasonal time scales using sea surface temperatures?
    • #x0026;
    • Chen, Y., Morton, D. C., Andela, N., Giglio, L., & Randerson, J. T. (2016). How much global burned area can be forecast on seasonal time scales using sea surface temperatures? Environmental Research Letters, 11(4), 045001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045001
    • (2016) Environmental Research Letters , vol.11 , Issue.4
    • Chen, Y.1    Morton, D.C.2    Andela, N.3    Giglio, L.4    Randerson, J.T.5
  • 10
    • 21744437005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrating the fine fuel moisture code for grass ignition potential in Sumatra, Indonesia
    • #x0026;
    • de Groot, W. J., Wardati, & Wang, Y. H. (2005). Calibrating the fine fuel moisture code for grass ignition potential in Sumatra, Indonesia. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 14(2), 161–168. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf04054
    • (2005) International Journal of Wildland Fire , vol.14 , Issue.2 , pp. 161-168
    • de Groot, W.J.1    Wardati2    Wang, Y.H.3
  • 11
    • 61749104075 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of carbon emissions from biomass burning in Indonesia from 1997 to 2006
    • #x0026;
    • Field, R. D., & Shen, S. S. P. (2008). Predictability of carbon emissions from biomass burning in Indonesia from 1997 to 2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, G04024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000694
    • (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research , vol.113
    • Field, R.D.1    Shen, S.S.P.2
  • 14
    • 65349110373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human amplification of drought-induced biomass burning in Indonesia since 1960
    • #x0026;
    • Field, R. D., van der Werf, G. R., & Shen, S. S. P. (2009). Human amplification of drought-induced biomass burning in Indonesia since 1960. Nature Geoscience, 2(3), 185–188. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo443
    • (2009) Nature Geoscience , vol.2 , Issue.3 , pp. 185-188
    • Field, R.D.1    van der Werf, G.R.2    Shen, S.S.P.3
  • 15
    • 1642463346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A drought-based predictor of recent haze events in western Indonesia
    • #x0026;
    • Field, R. D., Wang, Y., Roswintiarti, O., & Guswanto (2004). A drought-based predictor of recent haze events in western Indonesia. Atmospheric Environment, 38(13), 1869–1878. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.01.011
    • (2004) Atmospheric Environment , vol.38 , Issue.13 , pp. 1869-1878
    • Field, R.D.1    Wang, Y.2    Roswintiarti, O.3    Guswanto4
  • 16
    • 85020084015 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)
    • Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., … Zhao, B. (2017). The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Journal of Climate, 30, 5419–5454. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1
    • (2017) Journal of Climate , vol.30 , pp. 5419-5454
    • Gelaro, R.1    McCarty, W.2    Suárez, M.J.3    Todling, R.4    Molod, A.5    Takacs, L.6    Zhao, B.7
  • 17
    • 10844238111 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS
    • #x0026;
    • Giglio, L., Descloitres, J., Justice, C. O., & Kaufman, Y. J. (2003). An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS. Remote Sensing of Environment, 87(2–3), 273–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0034-4257(03)00184-6
    • (2003) Remote Sensing of Environment , vol.87 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 273-282
    • Giglio, L.1    Descloitres, J.2    Justice, C.O.3    Kaufman, Y.J.4
  • 21
    • 52549124403 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models
    • Jin, E. K., Kinter, J. L. III, Wang, B., Park, C. -K., Kang, I. -S., Kirtman, B. P., … Yamagata, T. (2008). Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics, 31(6), 647–664. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3
    • (2008) Climate Dynamics , vol.31 , Issue.6 , pp. 647-664
    • Jin, E.K.1    Kinter, J.L.2    Wang, B.3    Park, C.-K.4    Kang, I.-S.5    Kirtman, B.P.6    Yamagata, T.7
  • 22
    • 84869506823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere winter
    • #x0026;
    • Kim, H. -M., Webster, P. J., & Curry, J. A. (2012). Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere winter. Climate Dynamics, 39(12), 2957–2973. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6
    • (2012) Climate Dynamics , vol.39 , Issue.12 , pp. 2957-2973
    • Kim, H.-M.1    Webster, P.J.2    Curry, J.A.3
  • 23
    • 84992128566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Public health impacts of the severe haze in equatorial Asia in September–October 2015: Demonstration of a new framework for informing fire management strategies to reduce downwind smoke exposure
    • Koplitz, S. N., Mickley, L. J., Marlier, M. E., Buonocore, J. J., Kim, P. S., Liu, T., … Schwartz, J. (2016). Public health impacts of the severe haze in equatorial Asia in September–October 2015: Demonstration of a new framework for informing fire management strategies to reduce downwind smoke exposure. Environmental Research Letters, 11(9). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094023
    • (2016) Environmental Research Letters , vol.11 , Issue.9
    • Koplitz, S.N.1    Mickley, L.J.2    Marlier, M.E.3    Buonocore, J.J.4    Kim, P.S.5    Liu, T.6    Schwartz, J.7
  • 24
    • 0033117510 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The 1997 fires in Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia: Gaseous and particulate emissions
    • Levine, J. S. (1999). The 1997 fires in Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia: Gaseous and particulate emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 815–818. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900067
    • (1999) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.26 , pp. 815-818
    • Levine, J.S.1
  • 25
    • 84943404426 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of submonthly precipitation forecast skill from Global Ensemble Prediction Systems
    • #x0026;
    • Li, S., & Robertson, A. W. (2015). Evaluation of submonthly precipitation forecast skill from Global Ensemble Prediction Systems. Monthly Weather Review, 143(7), 2871–2889. https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-14-00277.1
    • (2015) Monthly Weather Review , vol.143 , Issue.7 , pp. 2871-2889
    • Li, S.1    Robertson, A.W.2
  • 26
    • 84944796211 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fire emissions and regional air quality impacts from fires in oil palm, timber, and logging concessions in Indonesia
    • #x0026;
    • Marlier, M. E., DeFries, R. S., Kim, P. S., Koplitz, S. N., Jacob, D. J., Mickley, L. J., & Myers, S. S. (2015). Fire emissions and regional air quality impacts from fires in oil palm, timber, and logging concessions in Indonesia. Environmental Research Letters, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085005
    • (2015) Environmental Research Letters , vol.10 , Issue.8
    • Marlier, M.E.1    DeFries, R.S.2    Kim, P.S.3    Koplitz, S.N.4    Jacob, D.J.5    Mickley, L.J.6    Myers, S.S.7
  • 27
    • 0037038393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997
    • #x0026;
    • Page, S. E., Siegert, F., Rieley, J. O., Boehm, H. D. V., Jaya, A., & Limin, S. (2002). The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997. Nature, 420(6,911), 61–65. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01131
    • (2002) Nature , vol.420 , Issue.6 , pp. 61-65
    • Page, S.E.1    Siegert, F.2    Rieley, J.O.3    Boehm, H.D.V.4    Jaya, A.5    Limin, S.6
  • 29
    • 84873264634 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-scale meteorological conceptual analysis of observed active fire hotspot activity and smoke optical depth in the Maritime Continent
    • Reid, J. S., Xian, P., Hyer, E. J., Flatau, M. K., Ramirez, E. M., Turk, F. J., … Maloney, E. D. (2012). Multi-scale meteorological conceptual analysis of observed active fire hotspot activity and smoke optical depth in the Maritime Continent. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12(4), 2117–2147. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-2117-2012
    • (2012) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol.12 , Issue.4 , pp. 2117-2147
    • Reid, J.S.1    Xian, P.2    Hyer, E.J.3    Flatau, M.K.4    Ramirez, E.M.5    Turk, F.J.6    Maloney, E.D.7
  • 30
    • 79952683753 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications
    • Rienecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Gelaro, R., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Liu, E., … Woollen, J. (2011). MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. Journal of Climate, 24(14), 3624–3648. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00015.1
    • (2011) Journal of Climate , vol.24 , Issue.14 , pp. 3624-3648
    • Rienecker, M.M.1    Suarez, M.J.2    Gelaro, R.3    Todling, R.4    Bacmeister, J.5    Liu, E.6    Woollen, J.7
  • 31
    • 11844296090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction
    • #x0026;
    • Robertson, A. W., Lall, U., Zebiak, S. E., & Goddard, L. (2004). Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction. Monthly Weather Review, 132(12), 2732–2744. https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr2818.1
    • (2004) Monthly Weather Review , vol.132 , Issue.12 , pp. 2732-2744
    • Robertson, A.W.1    Lall, U.2    Zebiak, S.E.3    Goddard, L.4
  • 32
  • 33
    • 85032457580 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forest and Land Fire in Riau Province Concessions: A Case Study in Fire Prevention Policy Implementation with Local Concession Holders
    • #x0026;, In, K. P. Vadrevu, T. Ohara, #x0026;, C. Justice, (Eds.),, Berlin, Springer, in press.
    • Saharjo, B. H., & Yunga, A. (2017). Forest and Land Fire in Riau Province Concessions: A Case Study in Fire Prevention Policy Implementation with Local Concession Holders. In K. P. Vadrevu, T. Ohara, & C. Justice (Eds.), Land-Atmospheric Research Applications in South and Southeast Asia (30 pp.). Berlin: Springer, in press.
    • (2017) Land-Atmospheric Research Applications in South and Southeast Asia , pp. 30
    • Saharjo, B.H.1    Yunga, A.2
  • 36
    • 84988893627 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Field measurements of trace gases and aerosols emitted by peat fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, during the 2015 El Niño
    • Stockwell, C. E., Jayarathne, T., Cochrane, M. A., Ryan, K. C., Putra, E. I., … Simpson, I. J. (2016). Field measurements of trace gases and aerosols emitted by peat fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, during the 2015 El Niño. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(18), 11,711–11,732.
    • (2016) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol.16 , Issue.18 , pp. 11,711-11,732
    • Stockwell, C.E.1    Jayarathne, T.2    Cochrane, M.A.3    Ryan, K.C.4    Putra, E.I.5    Simpson, I.J.6
  • 37
    • 84975865183 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • COMMENTARY: Preventing fires and haze in Southeast Asia
    • Tacconi, L. (2016). COMMENTARY: Preventing fires and haze in Southeast Asia. Nature Climate Change, 6(7), 640–643.
    • (2016) Nature Climate Change , vol.6 , Issue.7 , pp. 640-643
    • Tacconi, L.1
  • 38
    • 0035896392 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical tropospheric ozone and biomass burning
    • #x0026;
    • Thompson, A. M., Witte, J. C., Hudson, R. D., Guo, H., Herman, J. R., & Fujiwara, M. (2001). Tropical tropospheric ozone and biomass burning. Science, 291(5,511), 2128–2132. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.291.5511.2128
    • (2001) Science , vol.291 , Issue.5 , pp. 2128-2132
    • Thompson, A.M.1    Witte, J.C.2    Hudson, R.D.3    Guo, H.4    Herman, J.R.5    Fujiwara, M.6
  • 41
    • 78650077213 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009)
    • van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P. S., … van Leeuwen, T. T. (2010). Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 11,707–11,735. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010
    • (2010) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol.10 , pp. 11,707-11,735
    • van der Werf, G.R.1    Randerson, J.T.2    Giglio, L.3    Collatz, G.J.4    Mu, M.5    Kasibhatla, P.S.6    van Leeuwen, T.T.7
  • 42
    • 85029315994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)
    • van Marle, M. J. E., Kloster, S., Magi, B. I., Marlon, J. R., Daniau, A. -L., Field, R. D., … van der Werf, G. R. (2017). Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015). Geoscientifc Model Development Discussions, 10, 3329–3357. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017
    • (2017) Geoscientifc Model Development Discussions , vol.10 , pp. 3329-3357
    • van Marle, M.J.E.1    Kloster, S.2    Magi, B.I.3    Marlon, J.R.4    Daniau, A.-L.5    Field, R.D.6    van der Werf, G.R.7
  • 45
    • 84863670231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fire, drought and El Niño relationships on Borneo (Southeast Asia) in the pre-MODIS era (1980–2000)
    • #x0026;
    • Wooster, M. J., Perry, G. L. W., & Zoumas, A. (2012). Fire, drought and El Niño relationships on Borneo (Southeast Asia) in the pre-MODIS era (1980–2000). Biogeosciences, 9(1), 317–340. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-317-2012
    • (2012) Biogeosciences , vol.9 , Issue.1 , pp. 317-340
    • Wooster, M.J.1    Perry, G.L.W.2    Zoumas, A.3
  • 46
    • 85032447279 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (Rep.,). Jakarta, Indonesia World Bank Group.
    • World Bank (2015). Indonesia's fire crisis: Who benefits and who pays? (Rep., pp. 18–25). Jakarta, Indonesia: World Bank Group.
    • (2015) Indonesia's fire crisis: Who benefits and who pays? , pp. 18-25
  • 47
    • 67349203121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications
    • Wotton, B. M. (2009). Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 16(2), 107–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-007-0084-2
    • (2009) Environmental and Ecological Statistics , vol.16 , Issue.2 , pp. 107-131
    • Wotton, B.M.1
  • 48
    • 84962834002 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Physical climatology of Indonesian maritime continent: An outline to comprehend observational studies
    • Yamanaka, M. D. (2016). Physical climatology of Indonesian maritime continent: An outline to comprehend observational studies. Atmospheric Research, 178, 231–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.03.017
    • (2016) Atmospheric Research , vol.178 , pp. 231-259
    • Yamanaka, M.D.1
  • 49
    • 84982743638 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal–interannual variation and prediction of wet and dry season rainfall over the Maritime Continent: Roles of ENSO and monsoon circulation
    • #x0026;
    • Zhang, T., Yang, S., Jiang, X., & Zhao, P. (2016). Seasonal–interannual variation and prediction of wet and dry season rainfall over the Maritime Continent: Roles of ENSO and monsoon circulation. Journal of Climate, 29(10), 3675–3695.
    • (2016) Journal of Climate , vol.29 , Issue.10 , pp. 3675-3695
    • Zhang, T.1    Yang, S.2    Jiang, X.3    Zhao, P.4
  • 50
    • 84947565444 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonality in prediction skill and predictable pattern of tropical Indian Ocean SST
    • #x0026;
    • Zhu, J., Huang, B., Kumar, A., & Kinter, J. L. III (2015). Seasonality in prediction skill and predictable pattern of tropical Indian Ocean SST. Journal of Climate, 28, 7962–7984. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0067.1
    • (2015) Journal of Climate , vol.28 , pp. 7962-7984
    • Zhu, J.1    Huang, B.2    Kumar, A.3    Kinter, J.L.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.